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This paper aims to demonstrate the impact of coal enterprises’ vertical integration on the performance of innovation corporate social responsibility (ICSR) and to elaborate its specific transmission path through financing structure and market power. This paper takes the data of A-share listed coal company from 2008 to 2017 as samples, uses input-output table method to measure the degree of vertical integration, and explores the relationship between the four factors through multiple linear regression and Bootstrap method. We found that: (1) the vertical integration of coal enterprises has positive incentives for the promotion of ICSR. (2) Financing structure and market power play a chain intermediary role in this process of incentive. (3) In areas with high marketization process, vertical integration has more significant incentive effect on ICSR. The paper extends the research on the relationship between vertical integration and innovation, which provides a reference for the improvement of China’s supply-side reform and corporate social responsibility (CSR) fulfillment policy. It is helpful to promote the sustainable development of the coal industry, stimulate the innovation vitality of enterprises, and improve the fulfillment of CSR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Setting: Research capacity is weakest in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) where operational research is highly relevant and needed. Structured Operational Research and Training Initiative (SORT IT) courses have been developed to train participants to conduct and publish operational research and influence policy and practice. Twenty courses were completed in Asia, Africa, Europe and the South Pacific between 2009 and 2014. Objectives: In the 20 completed SORT IT courses, to assess where the research was conducted, who was trained, who became facilitators in subsequent courses and course outcomes. Design: A cohort study of completed SORT IT courses Results: There were 236 participants (41% female) including 64 nationalities who conducted research in 59 countries, mostly from Asia and Africa (mean course duration = 9.7 months). Most participants (68%) were from government health programs and non-governmental agencies. A total of 213(90%) participants completed all milestones successfully with 41(19%) becoming subsequent course facilitators, 88% of whom were from LMICs. Of 228 manuscripts submitted to scientific journals, 197(86%) were either published or in press; in 86%, the principal investigator (first author) was a LMIC national. Papers were published in 23 scientific journals (impact factor 0.5–4.4) and covered 21 disease categories (median publication time = 5.7 months). Published papers (186) had 94,794 cumulative article views/downloads. Article views/downloads for immediate open access articles were double those from closed access journals. Conclusion: The SORT IT model has been effective in training personnel to produce relevant operational research in LMICs. It merits continued commitment and support for further scale-up and development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical studies show that discrimination by identity found in offline markets also prevails online. This paper reveal that in a competitive market, buyers that intend to discriminate exist but they are prevented from influencing the market outcome. To this end, we construct a field experiment on eBay, where half of the sellers disclose their names in their usernames while the other half do not. eBay, however, automatically discloses the seller’s names to the buyer after the auction. In the anonymous auctions, winning bidders thus learn the identity of the seller after the auction ends, and here we find buyers to discriminate against sellers with foreign-sounding names by leaving them feedback less often. However, there is no such discrimination in feedback provision when the seller name was known to the buyer before the auction. When bidders know the names of the sellers, the bidders with animus towards individuals with specific names can select out of auctions from these sellers, leaving winners that do not discriminate. One would expect that the auctions of for example sellers with foreign-sounding names would receive fewer bidders and thus lower auction prices. However, we observe no such differences: there are no statistically significant differences in the number of bids or auction prices received by sellers with foreign or domestic sounding names. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is facing severe pressure on its water resources and water environments. Calculating the industrial water efficiency of each province is an important index for the central government to evaluate local governments. In the traditional water resources evaluation index, the industrial water use efficiency and pollutant discharge are evaluated separately. In this paper, we collected industrial input data, output data and pollutant discharge data with a four-stage data envelopment analysis to calculate China's industrial water use efficiency with and without considering pollutant discharge, and then analyzed the factors influencing the industrial water use efficiency. The results show that the eastern coastal provinces of China have the highest water use efficiency and are less affected by pollutant discharge than other provinces. The industrial water use efficiency of the central and western provinces is lower than that of the other provinces, and the industrial water use efficiency in the central provinces is greatly affected by pollutant discharge. Factor endowment, economic development level, scientific and technological progress, industrial structure, proportion of foreign investment, water consumption per 10000 yuan of value-added by industry, industrial sewage treatment capacity and educational investment have a significant influence on the industrial water use efficiency of China. We suggest that the government strengthen the construction of sewage plants and other related infrastructure in central provinces when conducting the industrial transfer of heavy polluting enterprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of elasticities of substitution between inputs is a standard method for addressing the effect of a change in the mix of inputs used for production from a technical or cost standpoint. Most estimation methods use parametric production or cost functions or frontiers to estimate these elasticities. A potentially useful nonparametric alternative is data envelopment analysis (DEA). The purpose of this paper is to derive elasticities of input substitution for both technical and cost frontiers using DEA, extending the use of this approach in the field of economics and associated fields. The paper provides derivations for both Hicksian (production and cost frontier) and Morishima (cost frontier) elasticities of input substitution, as well as a parsimonious method for estimating them using DEA. The derivations are presented using an agricultural example form Kansas, USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, with the rapid development of China's air transport industry and the change in market consumption structure, service quality has become one of the important factors affecting airline revenue. How to formulate a reasonable pricing strategy and maintain competitiveness in the fierce market competition has become an urgent problem for airlines. First, the impact factor of service quality level in the traditional pricing model is introduced and a static price competition model for multi-oligopoly airlines based on service quality is established in this paper. And then, a dynamic pricing model based on service quality of the multi-oligopoly airlines is established. The model incorporates the weight factor of service quality impact, which is used to indicate the weight of the service quality level in the process of airline dynamic pricing. The research results show that the service quality level of airlines has an indispensable influence on its development. Airlines should improve service quality as soon as possible to enhance market competitiveness and achieve sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model is modified to analyze post-work grocery shopping activity duration. Much previous shopping duration analysis was conducted using the proportional hazard (PH) modeling approach. Once the proportionality assumption was violated, the traditional accelerated failure time (TAFT) model was usually selected as an alternative modeling approach. However, a TAFT model only has covariates with non-proportional and time-dependent effects on the hazard overtime while a PH model only accommodates covariates with proportional and time-independent effects. Neither of them considers the possibility that some of covariates may have proportional and time-independent effects and some may have non-proportional and time-dependent effects on the hazard value in one model. To address this issue, the paper generalizes the TAFT model and develops a modified accelerated failure time (MAFT) model to accommodate both time-dependent and time-independent covariates for activity duration analysis. Checking on the proportionality assumption indicates that the assumption is not valid in the post-work grocery shopping activity data extracted from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) conducted by the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT). Both TAFT and MAFT models are developed for comparisons and analysis. The empirical and statistical results show that there do exist two different types of covariates affecting shopping activity duration, including covariates only with proportional and time-independent effects (i.e. working duration, commute travel time) and those with non-proportional and time-dependent effects. The MAFT model can capture the subtleties in various types of covariate effects and help better understand how those covariates affect activity duration overtime. This paper also shows the importance to develop a flexible duration model with both time-dependent and time-independent covariates for accurately evaluating travel demand management (TDM) policies, like flexible work hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate reporting and forecasting of PM2.5 concentration are important for improving public health. In this paper, we propose a partial differential equation (PDE) model, specially, a linear diffusive equation, to describe the spatial-temporal characteristics of PM2.5 in order to make short-term prediction. We analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of a real dataset from China’s National Environmental Monitoring and validate the PDE-based model in terms of predicting the PM2.5 concentration of the next day by the former days’ history data. Our experiment results show that the PDE model is able to characterize and predict the process of PM2.5 transport. For example, for 300 continuous days of 2016, the average prediction accuracy of the PDE model over all city-regions is 93% or 83% based on different accuracy definitions. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to use PDE-based model to study PM2.5 prediction in both temporal and spatial dimensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern cities are engines of production, innovation, and growth. However, urbanization also increases both local and global pollution from household consumption and firms’ production. Do emissions change proportionately to city size or does pollution tend to outpace or lag urbanization? Do emissions scale differently with population versus economic growth or are emissions, population, and economic growth inextricably linked? How are the scaling relationships between emissions, population, and economic growth affected by environmental regulation? This paper examines the link between urbanization, economic growth and pollution using data from Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the United States between 1999 and 2011. We find that the emissions of local air pollution in these MSAs scale according to a ¾ power law with both population size and gross domestic product (GDP). However, the monetary damages from these local emissions scale linearly with both population and GDP. Counties that have previously been out of attainment with the local air quality standards set by the Clean Air Act show an entirely different relationship: local emissions scale according to the square root of population, while the monetary damages from local air pollution follow a 2/3rds power law with population. Counties out of attainment are subject to more stringent emission controls; we argue based on this that enforcement of the Clean Air Act induces sublinear scaling between emissions, damages, and city size. In contrast, we find that metropolitan GDP scales super-linearly with population in all MSAs regardless of attainment status. Summarizing, our findings suggest that environmental policy limits the adverse effects of urbanization without interfering with the productivity benefits that manifest in cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivation: Proper management of fecal sludge has significant positive health and environmental externalities. Most research on managing onsite sanitation so far either simulates the costs of, or the welfare effects from, managing sludge in situ in pit latrines. Thus, designing management strategies for onsite rural sanitation is challenging, because the actual costs of transporting sludge for treatment, and sources for financing these transport costs, are not well understood. Methods: In this paper we calculate the actual cost of sludge management from onsite latrines, and identify the contributions that latrine owners are willing to make to finance the costs. A spreadsheet-based model is used to identify a cost-effective transport option, and to calculate the cost per household. Then a double-bound contingent valuation method is used to elicit from pit-latrine owners their willingness-to-pay to have sludge transported away. This methodology is employed for the case of a rural subdistrict in Bangladesh called Bhaluka, a unit of administration at which sludge management services are being piloted by the Government of Bangladesh. Results: The typical sludge accumulation rate in Bhaluka is calculated at 0.11 liters/person/day and a typical latrine will need to be emptied approximately once every 3 to 4 years. The costs of emptying and transport are high; approximately USD 13 per emptying event (circa 14% of average monthly income); household contributions could cover around 47% of this cost. However, if costs were spread over time, the service would cost USD 4 per year per household, or USD 0.31 per month per household—comparable to current expenditures of rural households on telecommunications. Conclusion: This is one of few research papers that brings the costs of waste management together with financing of that cost, to provide evidence for an implementable solution. This framework can be used to identify cost effective sludge management options and private contributions towards that cost in other (context-specific) administrative areas where onsite sanitation is widespread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies the effect of speed cameras on road traffic collisions using an approximate Bayesian doubly-robust (DR) causal inference estimation method. Previous empirical work on this topic, which shows a diverse range of estimated effects, is based largely on outcome regression (OR) models using the Empirical Bayes approach or on simple before and after comparisons. Issues of causality and confounding have received little formal attention. A causal DR approach combines propensity score (PS) and OR models to give an average treatment effect (ATE) estimator that is consistent and asymptotically normal under correct specification of either of the two component models. We develop this approach within a novel approximate Bayesian framework to derive posterior predictive distributions for the ATE of speed cameras on road traffic collisions. Our results for England indicate significant reductions in the number of collisions at speed cameras sites (mean ATE = -15%). Our proposed method offers a promising approach for evaluation of transport safety interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current models of bilateral trade neglect the effects of income distribution. This paper addresses the issue by accounting for non-homothetic consumer preferences and hence investigating the role of income distribution in the context of the gravity model of trade. A theoretically justified gravity model is estimated for disaggregated trade data (Dollar volume is used as dependent variable) using a sample of 104 exporters and 108 importers for 1980–2003 to achieve two main goals. We define and calculate new measures of income distribution similarity and empirically confirm that greater similarity of income distribution between countries implies more trade. Using distribution-based measures as a proxy for demand similarities in gravity models, we find consistent and robust support for the hypothesis that countries with more similar income-distributions trade more with each other. The hypothesis is also confirmed at disaggregated level for differentiated product categories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adoption of the shared prosperity goal by the World Bank in 2013 and Sustainable Development Goal 10, on inequality, by the United Nations in 2015 should strengthen the focus of development interventions and cooperation on the income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution. This paper contributes to the incipient literature on within-country allocations of development institutions and assesses the geographic targeting of World Bank projects to the bottom 40 percent. Bivariate correlations between the allocation of project funding approved over 2005–14 and the geographical distribution of the bottom 40 as measured by survey income or consumption data are complemented by regressions with population and other potential factors affecting the within-country allocations as controls. The correlation analysis shows that, of the 58 countries in the sample, 41 exhibit a positive correlation between the shares of the bottom 40 and World Bank funding, and, in almost half of these, the correlation is above 0.5. Slightly more than a quarter of the countries, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa, exhibit a negative correlation. The regression analysis shows that, once one controls for population, the correlation between the bottom 40 and World Bank funding switches sign and becomes significant and negative on average. This is entirely driven by Sub-Saharan Africa and not observed in the other regions. Hence, the significant and positive correlation in the estimations without controlling for population suggests that World Bank project funding is concentrated in administrative areas in which more people live (including the bottom 40) rather than in poorer administrative areas. Furthermore, capital cities receive disproportionally high shares of World Bank funding on average. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper combines a Granger causality test and a VAR model to investigate the relationships among oil price shocks, global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU), and China’s industrial economic growth. Based on monthly data from 2000 to 2017, we reveal that GEPU and world oil prices jointly Granger cause China's industrial economic growth; world oil prices have a positive effect on China's industrial economic growth, while GEPU has a negative effect. Further analyses investigate the asymmetry effect of oil prices and find that the negative component shows a more significant impact on China's industrial economic growth. The results are robust to different oil price and EPU proxies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quigley derived his hybrid price model to improve the precision of predicted prices of sold homes by statistically merging data of resold homes in a repeat sales model with that of once-sold homes in a single sales hedonic price model. The literature has few applications of the hybrid model aside from those by Quigley and his collaborators. Two reasons for this underuse may be its computational intensiveness and its marginal empirical improvement in comparison with two other models. This paper first demystifies this computational intensiveness by calibrating models in Microsoft Excel with transferable procedures into other software. It second evaluates the hybrid price model’s empirical improvement as a reason for its underuse by predicting prices of 2,559 sold and resold homes observed in two inner-city neighbourhoods in Windsor, Ontario, during a 30-year period. The results as hypothesized are its lower standard errors of regression coefficients and higher simple R-squared than those of a single sales hedonic price model. Moreover, the hybrid model’s predictions have higher correlations than those of the single sales model with not only in-sample observed prices or changes in prices but also out-of-sample ones. The conclusion speculates in plans for future research about reasons for two models’ similar or dissimilar regression coefficients and standard errors predicting correspondingly similar or dissimilar sale prices of homes through time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The clustering of time series has attracted growing research interest in recent years. The most popular clustering methods assume that the time series are only linearly dependent but this assumption usually fails in practice. To overcome this limitation, in this paper, we study clustering methods applicable to time series with a general and dependent structure. We propose a copula-based distance to measure dissimilarity among time series and consider an estimator for it, where the strong consistency of the estimator is guaranteed. Once the pairwise distance matrix for time series has been obtained, we apply a hierarchical clustering algorithm to cluster the time series and ensure its consistency. Numerical studies, including a large number of simulations and analysis of practical data, show that our method performs well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to difficulties in accurately predicting the emergency timing and the magnitude of a disaster, operations for perishable emergency inventory planning often encounter expiration and shortage problems. In order to ease the expiration problem in emergency medicine preparation inventories, this paper investigates an emergency medicine closed-loop supply chain for returning unused items from an ERC (Emergency Reserve Center) to a hospital. To assure that the return strategy is meaningful, we propose a critical parameter that we term the latest return time, after which the remaining emergency medicine in the ERC cannot be returned to the hospital. In addition, the short lifetime of emergency products and uncertainty about demand time and demand quantity are also considered in this emergency inventory planning system. In analyzing the optimal ordering policies, we find that the two threshold values for the predefined return time, which affect the total costs, are not monotonous; rather, the direction of their effect is first down, then up, and then down again, which means that a better predefined value of the latest return time can be determined by minimizing total costs. By studying and comparing decentralized and centralized decisions, we find that the centralized decision system works better to control expiration and costs. Therefore, we design a coordination mechanism for the cooperation between the ERC and the hospital. Our analysis shows that we should not ignore the emergency uncertainty and perishability of emergency items. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an optimization model, using Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP), to support decisions related to making investments in the design of power grids serving industrial clients that experience interruptions to their energy supply due to disruptive events. In this approach, by considering the probabilities of the occurrence of a set of such disruptive events, the model is used to minimize the overall expected cost by determining an optimal strategy involving pre- and post-event actions. The pre-event actions, which are considered during the design phase, evaluate the resilience capacity (absorption, adaptation and restoration) and are tailored to the context of industrial clients dependent on a power grid. Four cases are analysed to explore the results of different probabilities of the occurrence of disruptions. Moreover, two scenarios, in which the probability of occurrence is lowest but the consequences are most serious, are selected to illustrate the model’s applicability. The results indicate that investments in pre-event actions, if implemented, can enhance the resilience of power grids serving industrial clients because the impacts of disruptions either are experienced only for a short time period or are completely avoided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is difficult to know whether different dimensions of trust have different effects on local residents’ acceptance of nuclear power plants (NPPs). In previous research such trust has been considered as a single dimensional concept. This paper divides trust into goodwill trust and competence trust, and we explore the ways in which trust affects acceptance of NPPs through structural equation modeling. A survey of 491 people was conducted in Haiyan County, China, where the Qinshan nuclear power plant is located. We find that goodwill trust is significantly correlated with competence trust, and each can indirectly promote residents’ acceptance of NPPs but by different paths. Goodwill trust improves acceptance of NPPs by decreasing risk perception, while competence trust improves acceptance of NPPs by increasing benefit perception. However, the associations between goodwill trust and benefit perception, competence trust and risk perception, are not significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present an automatic system for the analysis and labeling of structural scenes, floor plan drawings in Computer-aided Design (CAD) format. The proposed system applies a fusion strategy to detect and recognize various components of CAD floor plans, such as walls, doors, windows and other ambiguous assets. Technically, a general rule-based filter parsing method is fist adopted to extract effective information from the original floor plan. Then, an image-processing based recovery method is employed to correct information extracted in the first step. Our proposed method is fully automatic and real-time. Such analysis system provides high accuracy and is also evaluated on a public website that, on average, archives more than ten thousands effective uses per day and reaches a relatively high satisfaction rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The population of Ghana is increasingly becoming urbanized with about 70% of the estimated 27 million people living in urban and peri-urban areas. Nonetheless, eight out of the ten regions in Ghana remain predominantly rural where only 32% of the national health sector workforce works. Moreover, the rural-urban disparities in the density of health tutors (staff responsible for pre-service training of health professionals) are enormous. This paper explores perceived needs of health tutors in rural and urban health training institutions in Ghana. Methods: This is a descriptive qualitative study conducted in the Greater Accra and Northern regions of Ghana. The Study used the deductive thematic and sub-thematic analysis approaches. Five health training institutions were randomly sampled, and 72 tutors engaged in separate focus group discussions with an average size of 14 participants per group in each training institution. Results: Perceived rural-urban disparities among health tutors were found in the payment of extra duty allowances; school infrastructure including libraries and internet connectivity; staff accommodation; and opportunities for scholarships and higher education. Health tutors in rural areas generally expressed more frustration with these work conditions than those in urban areas. Conclusions: There is the need to initiate and sustain work incentives that promote motivation of rural health tutors to control ongoing rural-urban migration of qualified staff. It is recommended the following incentives be prioritized to promote retention of qualified health tutors in rural health training schools: payment of research, book and rural allowances; early promotion of rural staff; prioritizing rural tutors for scholarships, and introduction of national best health tutor awards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Overweight and obesity are highly prevalent in the population of the United States, affecting roughly 2/3 of Americans. These diseases, along with their associated conditions, are a major burden on the healthcare industry in terms of both dollars spent and effort expended. Volitional weight loss is attempted by many, but weight regain is common. The ability to predict which patients will lose weight and successfully maintain the loss versus those prone to regain weight would help ease this burden by allowing clinicians the ability to skip treatments likely to be ineffective. In this paper we introduce a new windowed approach to the persistent homology signal processing algorithm that, when paired with a modified, semimetric version of the Hausdorff distance, can differentiate the two groups where other commonly used methods fail. The novel approach is tested on accelerometer data gathered from an ongoing study at the University of Michigan. While most standard approaches to signal processing show no difference between the two groups, windowed persistent homology and the modified Hausdorff semimetric show a clear separation. This has significant implications for clinical decision making and patient care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a sustainable transportation mode, high-speed railway (HSR) has become an efficient way to meet the huge travel demand. However, due to the high acquisition and maintenance cost, it is impossible to build enough infrastructure and purchase enough train-sets. Great efforts are required to improve the transport capability of HSR. The utilization efficiency of train-sets (carrying tools of HSR) is one of the most important factors of the transport capacity of HSR. In order to enhance the utilization efficiency of the train-sets, this paper proposed a train-set circulation optimization model to minimize the total connection time. An innovative two-stage approach which contains segments generation and segments combination was designed to solve this model. In order to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach, an experiment was carried out in the Beijing-Tianjin passenger dedicated line, to fulfill a 174 trips train diagram. The model results showed that compared with the traditional Ant Colony Algorithm (ACA), the utilization efficiency of train-sets can be increased from 43.4% (ACA) to 46.9% (Two-Stage), and 1 train-set can be saved up to fulfill the same transportation tasks. The approach proposed in the study is faster and more stable than the traditional ones, by using which, the HSR staff can draw up the train-sets circulation plan more quickly and the utilization efficiency of the HSR system is also improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how the encouragement of entrepreneurship within university research labs relates with research activities, research outputs, and early doctorate careers. Utilizing a panel survey of 6,840 science & engineering doctoral students at 39 R1 research universities, this study shows that entrepreneurship is widely encouraged across university research labs, ranging from 54% in biomedical engineering to 18% in particle physics, while only a small share of labs openly discourage entrepreneurship, from approximately 3% in engineering to approximately 12% in the life sciences. Within fields, there is no difference between labs that encourage entrepreneurship and those that do not with respect to basic research activity and the number of publications. At the same time, labs that encourage entrepreneurship are significantly more likely to report invention disclosures, particularly in engineering where such labs are 41% more likely to disclose inventions. With respect to career pathways, PhDs students in labs that encourage entrepreneurship do not differ from other PhDs in their interest in academic careers, but they are 87% more likely to be interested in careers in entrepreneurship and 44% more likely to work in a startup after graduation. These results persist even when accounting for individuals’ pre-PhD interest in entrepreneurship and the encouragement of other non-academic industry careers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In geo-statistics, the Durbin-Watson test is frequently employed to detect the presence of residual serial correlation from least squares regression analyses. However, the Durbin-Watson statistic is only suitable for ordered time or spatial series. If the variables comprise cross-sectional data coming from spatial random sampling, the test will be ineffectual because the value of Durbin-Watson’s statistic depends on the sequence of data points. This paper develops two new statistics for testing serial correlation of residuals from least squares regression based on spatial samples. By analogy with the new form of Moran’s index, an autocorrelation coefficient is defined with a standardized residual vector and a normalized spatial weight matrix. Then by analogy with the Durbin-Watson statistic, two types of new serial correlation indices are constructed. As a case study, the two newly presented statistics are applied to a spatial sample of 29 China’s regions. These results show that the new spatial autocorrelation models can be used to test the serial correlation of residuals from regression analysis. In practice, the new statistics can make up for the deficiencies of the Durbin-Watson test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To attain cleaner air, it is important that authorities make informed decisions when selecting a strategy. Concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM 2.5) are high in the Tokyo metropolitan area, even though concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than or equal to 10 μm (PM10) have dropped dramatically since the implementation of the NOx-PM Act. Currently, monitored concentration levels continue to exceed the designated ambient air quality standard set by the Japanese Ministry of the Environment. To our knowledge, no study has investigated a cost-efficient strategy for reducing PM 2.5 concentration levels in the Tokyo metropolitan area. This is the first study to examine a proper control strategy for Japan by developing an integrated model that includes both aerosol and economic models. The simulation results show that prefectures in the Tokyo metropolitan area cannot achieve the standards by relying on their own efforts to reduce PM 2.5. That is, prefectural governments in the Tokyo metropolitan areas need to cooperate with prefectures outside of the area to improve their PM 2.5 concentration levels. Thus, we simulated policies under the assumption that emissions from other sources are reduced to levels such that the PM 2.5 concentration declines by approximately 18 μg/m3. We first simulated an efficient policy, i.e., the implementation of a pollution tax. We found that the total abatement cost to meet the air quality standard using the cost-efficient strategy is approximately 142.7 billion yen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, university-industry collaborations in China and the USA are analyzed in terms of co-authored publications indexed in the Web of Science (WoS). Results show a wide gap between China and the USA: Chinese universities are much less active in collaborations with industry in terms of either publication productivity or collaboration intensity. In selecting local and foreign industrial partners, however, more variation exists among Chinese universities than among US universities. The US system is domestically oriented more than that of China. In the USA, the intensity of university-industry collaboration is determined by research quality, whereas in China this is not the case. In both China and the USA, distance is not critical for the establishment of domestic university-industry collaboration. A high correlation is found between productivity indicators including total publications and university-industry co-authored publications. However, the productivity indicators are less correlated with the intensity of university-industry collaboration. Large research universities with strong ties to domestic industry play critical roles in both national publication systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Secondary analyses of survey data collected from large probability samples of persons or establishments further scientific progress in many fields. The complex design features of these samples improve data collection efficiency, but also require analysts to account for these features when conducting analysis. Unfortunately, many secondary analysts from fields outside of statistics, biostatistics, and survey methodology do not have adequate training in this area, and as a result may apply incorrect statistical methods when analyzing these survey data sets. This in turn could lead to the publication of incorrect inferences based on the survey data that effectively negate the resources dedicated to these surveys. In this article, we build on the results of a preliminary meta-analysis of 100 peer-reviewed journal articles presenting analyses of data from a variety of national health surveys, which suggested that analytic errors may be extremely prevalent in these types of investigations. We first perform a meta-analysis of a stratified random sample of 145 additional research products analyzing survey data from the Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data System (SESTAT), which describes features of the U.S. Science and Engineering workforce, and examine trends in the prevalence of analytic error across the decades used to stratify the sample. We once again find that analytic errors appear to be quite prevalent in these studies. Next, we present several example analyses of real SESTAT data, and demonstrate that a failure to perform these analyses correctly can result in substantially biased estimates with standard errors that do not adequately reflect complex sample design features. Collectively, the results of this investigation suggest that reviewers of this type of research need to pay much closer attention to the analytic methods employed by researchers attempting to publish or present secondary analyses of survey data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Picture fuzzy sets (PFSs) are comparatively a new extension of fuzzy sets which describe the human opinions that has more answers like acceptance, rejection, neutral and desist, which cannot be correctly presented in fuzzy sets (FSs) and intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs). The PFSs are categorized by three objects, the degree of belonging, the degree of neutral belonging and the degree of non- belonging such that the total of these three degrees must not be more than one. So far, there is no such work presented in the literature which deals with unknown weights of criteria based on PFSs. In the present work, we have developed a linear programming (LP) model to find the exact weights from the given constraints of weights for the criteria and construct a modified distance based on similarity measure between picture fuzzy sets. Then we have utilized this similarity measure to achieve the best option in the multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problem. Lastly, two practical examples for the selection of alternatives are presented to compare the obtained results with the existing similarity measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study shows the feasibility of predicting firms’ expenditures in innovation, as reported in the Community Innovation Survey, applying a supervised machine-learning approach on a sample of Italian firms. Using an integrated dataset of administrative records and balance sheet data, designed to include all informative variables related to innovation but also easily accessible for most of the cohort, random forest algorithm is implemented to obtain a classification model aimed to identify firms that are potential innovation performers. The performance of the classifier, estimated in terms of AUC, is 0.794. Although innovation investments do not always result in patenting, the model is able to identify 71.92% of firms with patents. More encouraging results emerge from the analysis of the inner working of the model: predictors identified as most important—such as firm size, sector belonging and investment in intangible assets—confirm previous findings of literature, but in a completely different framework. The outcomes of this study are considered relevant for both economic analysts, because it demonstrates the potential of data-driven models for understanding the nature of innovation behaviour, and practitioners, such as policymakers or venture capitalists, who can benefit by evidence-based tools in the decision-making process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last decade, health care reform has dominated U.S. public policy and political discourse. Double-digit rate increases in premiums in the Health Insurance Marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2018 make this an ongoing issue that could affect future elections. A seminal event that changed the course of policy and politics around health care reform is the 2016 presidential election. The results of the 2016 presidential election departed considerably from polling forecasts. Given the prominence of the Affordable Care Act in the election, we test whether changes in health insurance coverage at the county-level correlate with changes in party vote share in the presidential elections from 2008 through 2016. We find that a one-percentage-point increase in county health insurance coverage was associated with a 0.25-percentage-point increase in the vote share for the Democratic presidential candidate. We further find that these gains on the part of the Democratic candidate came almost fully at the expense of the Republican (as opposed to third-party) presidential candidates. We also estimate models separately for states that did and did not expand Medicaid and find no differential effect of insurance gains on Democratic vote share for states that expanded Medicaid compared to those that did not. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that outcomes in health insurance markets played a role in the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. The decisions made by the current administration, and how those decisions affect health insurance coverage and costs, may be important factors in future elections as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study seeks to explain the interplay between chronological age and technology-related strain through techno-stressors and coping strategy choices in organizational settings. Grounded in Lazarus´ stress theory, theories of cognitive aging, the life span theory of control and socioemotional selectivity theory, this study argues that even though older workers are more prone to techno-stressors, aging is connected to gaining coping skills, which in turn reduce technology-related strain over time. Understanding these processes enables modifying employees’ coping strategy choices and mitigating negative outcomes of technostress at the workplace. Longitudinal data from 1,216 employees over a time period of 8 months were used to perform multilevel mediation modeling. The findings reveal that age was negatively related to technology-related strain. The link between age and technology-related strain was explained through behavioral disengagement, which older workers used less than younger workers. Active coping and social coping did not act as mediators of this relationship across time points. These relationships were stable after controlling for dependency on technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the apparent energy consumption data, a systematic and comprehensive city-level total carbon accounting approach was established and applied in Guangzhou, China. A newly extended LMDI method based on the Kaya identity was adopted to examine the main drivers for the carbon emissions increments both at the industrial sector and the residential sector. Research results are listed as follow: (1) Carbon emissions embodied in the imported electricity played a significant important role in emissions mitigation in Guangzhou. (2) The influences and impacts of various driving factors on industrial and residential carbon emissions are different in the three different development periods, namely, the 10th five-year plan period (2003–2005), the 11th five-year plan period (2005–2010), and the 12th five-year plan period (2010–2013). The main reasons underlying these influencing mechanisms were different policy measures announced by the central and local government during the different five-year plan periods. (3) The affluence effect (g-effect) was the dominant positive effect in driving emissions increase, while the energy intensity effect of production (e-effect-Production), the economic structure effect (s-effect) and the carbon intensity effect of production (f-effect-Production) were the main contributing factors suppressing emissions growth at the industrial sector. (4) The affluence effect of urban (g-effect-AUI) was the most dominant positive driving factor on emissions increment, while the energy intensity effect of urban (e-effect-Urban) played the most important role in curbing emissions growth at the residential sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Long acting reversible and permanent contraception (LARPs) offer promising opportunities for addressing the high and growing unmet need for modern contraception and helps to reduce unintended pregnancies and abortion rates in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This study examines the contextual factors that influence the use of long acting reversible and permanent contraception among married and fecund women in Ethiopia. Method: We use data from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey to examine the contextual factors that influence choice of long acting reversible and permanent contraception among married, non-pregnant and fecund women. The DHS collects detailed information on individual and household characteristics, contraception, and related reproductive behaviors from women of reproductive age. In addition, we created cluster level variables by aggregating individual level data to the cluster level. Analysis was done using a two-level multilevel logistic regression with data from 6994 married (weighted = 7352) women residing in 642 clusters (communities). Results: In 2016, 12% of married, non-pregnant and ‘fecund’ women were using long-acting reversible and permanent methods of contraception in Ethiopia. A higher proportion of women with secondary and above education (17.6%), urban residents (19.7%), in the richest wealth quintile (18.3%) and in paid employment (18.3%) were using LARP methods compared to their counterparts. Regression analysis showed that community level variables such as women’s empowerment, access to family planning information and services, region of residence and knowledge of methods were significantly associated with use of LARP methods. Age, wealth status, employment status and women’s fertility preferences were among the individual and household level variables associated with choice of LARP methods. With regards to age, the odds of using LARP methods was significantly lower among adolescents (OR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.32–0.85) and women over the age of 40 (OR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.44–0.90) compared to women in their 20’s. Conclusion: The findings of this study indicate that the demand for long-acting reversible and permanent contraception is influenced not only by women’s individual and household characteristics but also by the community’s level of women’s empowerment, socio-economic development, as well as access and exposure to family planning information and services. Thus, improving knowledge of long-acting reversible and permanent methods, improving women’s decision making autonomy and upgrading the capacity and skills of health workers particularly the midlevel providers and community health extension workers on the provision of LARP methods and rights-based approach is important to improve the uptake of LARP methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In most western countries a shortage of general practitioners (GP) exists. Newly qualified GPs often prefer to work in teams rather than in single-handed practices. Therefore, new practices offering these kinds of working conditions will be attractive in the future. From a health care point of view, the location planning of new practices will be a crucial aspect. In this work we studied solutions for locating GP practices in a defined administrative district under different objectives. Methods: Using operations research (OR), a research discipline that originated from logistics, different possible locations of GP practices were identified for the considered district. Models were developed under two main basic requirements: that one practice can be reached by as many inhabitants as possible and to cut down the driving time for every district’s inhabitant to the next practice location to less than 15 minutes. Input data included the demand (population), driving times and the current GP locations. Results: Three different models were analysed ranging from one single practice solution to five different practices. The whole administrative district can reach the central community “A” in at most 23 minutes by car. Considering a maximum driving time of 15 minutes, locations in four different cities in the district would be sufficient. Conclusion: Operations research methods can be used to determine locations for (new) GP practices. Depending on the concrete problem different models and approaches lead to varying solutions. These results must be discussed with GPs, mayors and patients to find robust locations regarding future developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accumulation of scientific knowledge on calling is limited by the absence of a common theoretical and measurement framework. Many different models of calling have been proposed, and we do not know how much research results that refer to a specific model are generalizable to different theoretical accounts of calling. In this article, we investigate whether two leading models of calling tackle the same construct. The two models were merged into a comprehensive framework that measures calling across seven facets: Passion, Purposefulness, Sacrifice, Pervasiveness, Prosocial Orientation, Transcendent Summons, and Identity. We then developed the Unified Multidimensional Calling Scale (UMCS) drawing from previous published items. Across two surveys involving college students (N = 5886) and adult employees (N = 205) the UMCS was proved to be valid and reliable. We also observed that the UMCS is invariant across time and calling domains. Finally, we found that facets of calling have very different relationships with outcomes and concurrent measures, suggesting that results obtained with a smaller set of facets are not generalizable to the higher-order construct of calling or to a different model that does not share the same facets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distance to health services is known to be negatively associated with usage and needle and syringe programs (NSPs) for people who inject drugs (PWID) are no different. Australia has a mixture of NSP modalities (primary or secondary fixed-site NSPs), which may present unique barriers to access. In this study, we explore 1) the effect of distance to NSPs on individual-level needle and syringe coverage, and 2) differences in coverage dependent on NSP modality. Using data from 219 PWID in an ongoing cohort study in Melbourne, Australia, we measured the straight-line distance from participants’ residence to their nearest primary or secondary fixed-site NSP. We analysed the relationship between geographical distance and coverage via regression analysis. The median distance to any type of NSP was 1872 metres. Regardless of service type, 52% of participants lived within 2 kms of a fixed-site NSP and 87% lived within 5 kms. We found no association between distance to NSPs and syringe coverage or a significant difference in coverage by nearest service type. Our findings suggest that the number and distribution of NSPs in Melbourne, Australia caters adequately for the population of PWID. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smart and sustainable buildings save energy and material resources and provide a comfortable environment that enhances their occupants’ well-being and productivity. It is therefore crucial to understand how building professionals, including designers, engineers, and contractors, view smart and sustainable buildings and what drives them towards smart and sustainable building technologies. This study identifies salient smart and sustainable building features from building professionals’ perspective and explores what determines building professionals’ intention to use such building technologies. Responses from 543 Hong Kong’s building professionals identify that intelligent security, intelligent and responsive fresh air supply, and intelligent and responsive thermal control are among the most important features of smart and sustainable buildings. Results of structural equation modeling grounded on an extended technology acceptance model indicate that facilitating condition and job relevance are related to perceived ease of use while subjective norm pertaining to image and perceived ease of use are predictors of perceived usefulness. Facilitating condition, perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness jointly influence building professionals’ intention to use smart and sustainable building technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) are cognitively complex activities related to independent living in the community. Robust IADL scales are needed, however the psychometric properties of instruments have been little evaluated. There is no validated instrument for Sri Lankan older populations. Sri Lanka has the highest proportion of older people in South Asia with rapid population ageing. Therefore, it is essential to have standard instruments to assess activity limitations. We aimed to cross-culturally adapt the original Lawton Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale from English to Sinhala and evaluate the psychometric properties of the Sinhala version. Methods: Cross-cultural adaptation of the instrument was performed. The instrument was validated in a sample of 702 community-dwelling older adults aged 60 years and above in Sri Lanka. Reliability (internal consistency and inter-rater reliability) was assessed. Construct validity of the scale was evaluated by performing exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis and testing convergent and divergent validity. Results: The Lawton IADL scale was successfully adapted to Sri Lankan context. Internal consistency of the scale was very high (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.91). Very good inter-rater reliability was observed with very good agreement for all items. Inter-class correlations for overall IADL score ranged from 0.57 to 0.91. Results of the exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses supported the unidimensionality of the scale. Goodness of fit indices in confirmatory factor analysis were in acceptable range (CFI = 0.98, SRMR = 0.06, NNFI = 0.97). Strength of associations were significant and in the expected direction. Results of the known group validity were also significant, confirming the convergent and divergent validity. Conclusion: The Lawton IADL scale was successfully translated and culturally adapted to Sinhala language. The Sinhala version demonstrated excellent reliability and construct validity. Given good psychometric properties, this scale would be recommended for use in future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy-growth nexus has important policy implications for economic development. The results from many past studies that investigated the causality direction of this nexus can lead to misleading policy guidance. Using data on China from 1953 to 2013, this study shows that an application of causality test on the time series of energy consumption and national output has masked a lot of information. The Toda-Yamamoto test with bootstrapped critical values and the newly proposed non-linear causality test reveal no causal relationship. However, a further application of these tests using series in different time-frequency domain obtained from wavelet decomposition indicates that while energy consumption Granger causes economic growth in the short run, the reverse is true in the medium term. A bidirectional causal relationship is found for the long run. This approach has proven to be superior in unveiling information on the energy-growth nexus that are useful for policy planning over different time horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a framework for the systematic analysis of mobile phone data to identify relevant mobility profiles in a population. The proposed framework allows finding distinct human mobility profiles based on the digital trace of mobile phone users characterized by a Matrix of Individual Trajectories (IT-Matrix). This matrix gathers a consistent and regularized description of individual trajectories that enables multi-scale representations along time and space, which can be used to extract aggregated indicators such as a dynamic multi-scale population count. Unsupervised clustering of individual trajectories generates mobility profiles (clusters of similar individual trajectories) which characterize relevant group behaviors preserving optimal aggregation levels for detailed and privacy-secured mobility characterization. The application of the proposed framework is illustrated by analyzing fully anonymized data on human mobility from mobile phones in Senegal at the arrondissement level over a calendar year. The analysis of monthly mobility patterns at the livelihood zone resolution resulted in the discovery and characterization of seasonal mobility profiles related with economic activities, agricultural calendars and rainfalls. The use of these mobility profiles could support the timely identification of mobility changes in vulnerable populations in response to external shocks (such as natural disasters, civil conflicts or sudden increases of food prices) to monitor food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) could be a good short term option to help achieve global targets regarding road transport greenhouse gas emissions. Several common and country-specific public policies based on price or tax rebates are established in order to encourage the adoption of HEVs. The present research empirically assesses market preferences for HEVs in Spain, looking at the role of subsidies. An interactive internet-based survey was conducted in a representative sample (N = 1,200) of Spanish drivers. Drivers are willing to pay an extra amount of €1,645 for a HEV model compared to a conventional vehicle, premium which is well below the price markup for these cars. Therefore, current levels of economic subsidies applied in isolation to promote these types of vehicles may have a quite limited effect in extending their use. Overall, it is found that drivers have clear misconceptions about HEVs, which affect their purchasing choices and perceptions. Therefore, a policy mix of various incentives (including informational campaigns) may be required in order to stimulate the demand for HEVs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding correlation between influential factors and insurance losses is beneficial for insurers to accurately price and modify the bonus-malus system. Although there have been a certain number of achievements in insurance losses and claims modeling, limited efforts focus on exploring the relative role of accidents characteristics in insurance losses. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the influential priority of transit accidents attributes, such as the time, location and type of accidents. Based on the dataset from Washington State Transit Insurance Pool (WSTIP) in USA, we implement several key algorithms to achieve the objectives. First, K-means algorithm contributes to cluster the insurance loss data into 6 intervals; second, Grey Relational Analysis (GCA) model is applied to calculate grey relational grades of the influential factors in each interval; in addition, we implement Naive Bayes model to compute the posterior probability of factors values falling in each interval. The results show that the time, location and type of accidents significantly influence the insurance loss in the first five intervals, but their grey relational grades show no significantly difference. In the last interval which represents the highest insurance loss, the grey relational grade of the time is significant higher than that of the location and type of accidents. For each value of the time and location, the insurance loss most likely falls in the first and second intervals which refers to the lower loss. However, for accidents between buses and non-motorized road users, the probability of insurance loss falling in the interval 6 tends to be highest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2011 Fukushima disaster led to increases in multiple risks (e.g., lifestyle diseases and radiation exposure) and fear among the public. Here, we assessed the additional risks of cancer caused by radiation and diabetes related to the disaster and the cost-effectiveness of countermeasures against these conditions. Our study included residents of the cities of Minamisoma and Soma (10–40 km and 35–50 km north of the Fukushima Daiichi (N° 1) Nuclear Power Station, respectively). We used the loss of life expectancy (LLE) as an indicator to compare risks between radiation exposure and diabetes. We also estimated the cost-effectiveness of radiation-related countermeasures, including restricted food distribution, decontamination, and whole-body counter tests and interventions. Metformin therapy was selected as a representative management for diabetes. The diabetes-related LLEs among residents were 4.1 (95% confidence interval: 1.4–6.8) ×10−2 years for the whole population and 8.0 (2.7–13.2) ×10−2 years for 40s to 70s in a scenario that considered the additional incidence of diabetes during the first 10 years. The cancer-related LLEs caused by lifetime exposure to radiation were 0.69 (2.5–97.5 percentile: 0.61–0.79) ×10−2 years for the whole population and 0.24 (0.20–0.29) ×10−2 years for 40s to 70s. The diabetes-related LLEs among residents in the above-mentioned scenario were 5.9-fold and 33-fold higher than those attributed to average radiation among the whole population and among the 40s to 70s age groups, respectively. The costs per life-years saved of the radiation countermeasures (i.e., restricted food distribution, decontamination, and whole-body counter tests and interventions) were >1 to >4 orders of magnitude higher than those of general heath checkups and conventional management for diabetes. Our findings indicate that countermeasures to mitigate diabetes are warranted. Policy-makers’ and individuals’ understanding of multiple risks after any disaster will be essential to saving the lives of victims. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

NASA’s periodic selection of astronauts is a highly selective process accepting applications from the general population, wherein the mechanics of selection are not made public. This research was an effort to determine if biases (specifically age) exist in the process and, if so, at which points they might manifest. Two sets of analyses were conducted. The first utilized data requested via the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) on NASA astronaut applicants for the 2009 and 2013 selection years. Using a series of multinomial and logistic regressions, the data were analyzed to uncover whether age of the applicants linearly or nonlinearly affected their likelihood of receiving an invitation, as well as their likelihood of being selected into the astronaut program. The second used public data on age at selection and age at other career milestones for every astronaut selected from 1959 to 2013 to analyze trends in age over time using ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression and Pearson’s correlation. The results for the FOIA data revealed a nonlinear relationship between age and receiving an interview, as well as age and selection into the astronaut program, but the most striking observation was the loss of age diversity at each stage of selection. Applicants younger or older than approximately 40 years were significantly less likely to receive invitations for interviews and were significantly less likely to be selected as an astronaut. Analysis of the public-source data for all selections since the beginning of the astronaut program revealed significant age trends over time including a gradual increase in selectee age and decreased tenure at NASA after last flight, with average age at retirement steady over the entire history of the astronaut program at approximately 48 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Telemedicine is considered to be an effective strategy to aid in the recruitment and retention of physicians in underserved areas and, in doing so, improve access to healthcare. Telemedicine’s use, however, depends on individual and contextual factors. Using a mixed methods design, we studied these factors in Senegal based on a micro, meso and macro framework. A quantitative questionnaire administered to 165 physicians working in public hospitals and 151 physicians working in district health centres was used to identify individual (micro) factors. This was augmented with qualitative descriptive data involving individual interviews with 30 physicians working in public hospitals, 36 physicians working in district health centres and 10 telemedicine project managers to identify contextual (meso and macro) factors. Physicians were selected using purposeful random sampling; managers through snowball sampling. Quantitative data were analyzed descriptively using SPSS 23 and qualitative data thematically using NVivo 10. At the micro level, we found that 72.1% of the physicians working in public hospitals and 82.1% of the physicians working in district health centres were likely to use telemedicine in their professional activities. At the meso level, we identified several technical, organizational and ethical factors, while at the macro level the study revealed a number of financial, political, legal, socioeconomic and cultural factors. We conclude that better awareness of the interplay between factors can assist health authorities to develop telemedicine in ways that will attract use by physicians, thus improving physicians’ recruitment and retention in underserved areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The developing region of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) is home to a large number of people living below the poverty line. In future, providing affordable, universally accessible, reliable, low to zero carbon electricity in this region will be the main aim. A cost optimal 100% renewable energy system is simulated for SAARC for the year 2030 on an hourly resolved basis. The region was divided into 16 sub-regions and three different scenarios were set up based on the level of high voltage direct current (HVDC) grid connections. The results obtained for a total system levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) showed a decrease from 71.6 €/MWh in a decentralized to 67.2 €/MWh for a centralized grid connected scenario. An additional scenario was simulated to show the benefits of integrating industrial gas production and seawater reverse osmosis desalination demand, and showed the system cost decreased by 5% and total electricity generation decreased by 1%. The results show that a 100% renewable energy system could be a reality in the SAARC region with the cost assumptions used in this research and it may be more cost competitive than nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives. One of the limitations of this study is the cost of land for installation of renewables which is not included in the LCOE calculations, but regarded as a minor contribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The market demand for electric vehicles (EVs) has increased in recent years. Suitable models are necessary to understand and forecast EV sales. This study presents a singular spectrum analysis (SSA) as a univariate time-series model and vector autoregressive model (VAR) as a multivariate model. Empirical results suggest that SSA satisfactorily indicates the evolving trend and provides reasonable results. The VAR model, which comprised exogenous parameters related to the market on a monthly basis, can significantly improve the prediction accuracy. The EV sales in China, which are categorized into battery and plug-in EVs, are predicted in both short term (up to December 2017) and long term (up to 2020), as statistical proofs of the growth of the Chinese EV industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temporal index decomposition analysis and spatial index decomposition analysis were applied to understand the driving forces of the emissions embodied in China’s exports and net exports during 2002–2011, respectively. The accumulated emissions embodied in exports accounted for approximately 30% of the total emissions in China; although the contribution of the sectoral total emissions intensity (technique effect) declined, the scale effect was largely responsible for the mounting emissions associated with export, and the composition effect played a largely insignificant role. Calculations of the emissions embodied in net exports suggest that China is generally in an environmentally inferior position compared with its major trade partners. The differences in the economy-wide emission intensities between China and its major trade partners were the biggest contribution to this reality, and the trade balance effect played a less important role. However, a lower degree of specialization in pollution intensive products in exports than in imports helped to reduce slightly the emissions embodied in net exports. The temporal index decomposition analysis results suggest that China should take effective measures to optimize export and supply-side structure and reduce the total emissions intensity. According to spatial index decomposition analysis, it is suggested that a more aggressive import policy was useful for curbing domestic and global emissions, and the transfer of advanced production technologies and emission control technologies from developed to developing countries should be a compulsory global environmental policy option to mitigate the possible leakage of pollution emissions caused by international trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]