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Floating Catchment Area (FCA) methods are a popular tool to investigate accessibility to public facilities, in particular health care services. FCA approaches are attractive because, unlike other accessibility measures, they take into account the potential for congestion of facilities. This is done by 1) considering the population within the catchment area of a facility to calculate a variable that measures level of service, and then 2) aggregating the level of service by population centers subject to catchment area constraints. In this paper we discuss an effect of FCA approaches, an artifact that we term demand and level of service inflation. These artifacts are present in previous implementations of FCA methods. We argue that inflation makes interpretation of estimates of accessibility difficult, which has possible deleterious consequences for decision making. Next, we propose a simple and intuitive approach to proportionally allocate demandand and level of service in FCA calculations. The approach is based on a standardization of the impedance matrix, similar to approaches popular in the spatial statistics and econometrics literature. The result is a more intiuitive measure of accessibility that 1) provides a local version of the provider-to-population ratio; and 2) preserves the level of demand and the level of supply in a system. We illustrate the relevant issues with some examples, and then empirically by means of a case study of accessibility to family physicians in the Hamilton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), in Ontario, Canada. Results indicate that demand and supply inflation/deflation affect the interpretation of accessibility analysis using existing FCA methods, and that the proposed adjustment can lead to more intuitive results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freely-available satellite data streams and the ability to process these data on cloud-computing platforms such as Google Earth Engine have made frequent, large-scale landcover mapping at high resolution a real possibility. In this paper we apply these technologies, along with machine learning, to the mapping of peatlands–a landcover class that is critical for preserving biodiversity, helping to address climate change impacts, and providing ecosystem services, e.g., carbon storage–in the Boreal Forest Natural Region of Alberta, Canada. We outline a data-driven, scientific framework that: compiles large amounts of Earth observation data sets (radar, optical, and LiDAR); examines the extracted variables for suitability in peatland modelling; optimizes model parameterization; and finally, predicts peatland occurrence across a large boreal area (397, 958 km2) of Alberta at 10 m spatial resolution (equalling 3.9 billion pixels across Alberta). The resulting peatland occurrence model shows an accuracy of 87% and a kappa statistic of 0.57 when compared to our validation data set. Differentiating peatlands from mineral wetlands achieved an accuracy of 69% and kappa statistic of 0.37. This data-driven approach is applicable at large geopolitical scales (e.g., provincial, national) for wetland and landcover inventories that support long-term, responsible resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Objective: Research collaborations in biomedical research have evolved over time. No studies have addressed research collaboration in network meta-analysis (NMA). In this study, we used social network analysis methods to characterize global collaboration patterns of published NMAs over the past decades. Methods: PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library were searched (at 9th July, 2015) to include systematic reviews incorporating NMA. Two reviewers independently selected studies and cross-checked the standardized data. Data was analyzed using Ucinet 6.0 and SPSS 17.0. NetDraw software was used to draw social networks. Results: 771 NMAs published in 336 journals from 3459 authors and 1258 institutions in 49 countries through the period 1997–2015 were included. More than three-quarters (n = 625; 81.06%) of the NMAs were published in the last 5-years. The BMJ (4.93%), Current Medical Research and Opinion (4.67%) and PLOS One (4.02%) were the journals that published the greatest number of NMAs. The UK and the USA (followed by Canada, China, the Netherlands, Italy and Germany) headed the absolute global productivity ranking in number of NMAs. The top 20 authors and institutions with the highest publication rates were identified. Overall, 43 clusters of authors (four major groups: one with 37 members, one with 12 members, one with 11 members and one with 10 members) and 21 clusters of institutions (two major groups: one with 62 members and one with 20 members) were identified. The most prolific authors were affiliated with academic institutions and private consulting firms. 181 consulting firms and pharmaceutical industries (14.39% of institutions) were involved in 199 NMAs (25.81% of total publications). Although there were increases in international and inter-institution collaborations, the research collaboration by authors, institutions and countries were still weak and most collaboration groups were small sizes. Conclusion: Scientific production on NMA is increasing worldwide with research leadership of Western countries (most notably, the UK, the USA and Canada). More authors, institutions and nations are becoming involved in research collaborations, but frequently with limited international collaborations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Residential segregation into spatial neighborhoods and boroughs is a well-known spatial dynamic process that characterise complex urban environments. Existing models of segregation, including the pioneering Schelling ones, often do not consider all the factors that can contribute to this process. Segregation as well as aggregation emerges from local interactions among individuals, and is rooted in the complexity of social, economic and environmental interactions. The main objective of this study is to develop and implement a geospatial agent-based model to simulate the decision-making process of location of new household for incoming immigrant populations. Particularly this study aims to simulate and analyse the dynamics of the new immigrant populations arriving in the bilingual cities and boroughs of the island of Montreal. The model was implemented in NetLogo software, using real geospatial datasets. The obtained simulation results indicate realistic spatial patterns of spatial composition of the ethnographic fabric on the island of Montreal. The proposed model has the potential to be used as part of the city planning purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Phylogenetics has been used to investigate HIV transmission among men who have sex with men. This study compares several methodologies to elucidate the role of transmission chains in the dynamics of HIV spread in Quebec, Canada. Methods: The Quebec Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) genotyping program database now includes viral sequences from close to 4,000 HIV-positive individuals classified as Men who have Sex with Men (MSMs), collected between 1996 and early 2016. Assessment of chain expansion may depend on the partitioning scheme used, and so, we produce estimates from several methods: the conventional Bayesian and maximum likelihood-bootstrap methods, in combination with a variety of schemes for applying a maximum distance criterion, and two other algorithms, DM-PhyClus, a Bayesian algorithm that produces a measure of uncertainty for proposed partitions, and the Gap Procedure, a fast non-phylogenetic approach. Sequences obtained from individuals in the Primary HIV Infection (PHI) stage serve to identify incident cases. We focus on the period ranging from January 1st 2012 to February 1st 2016. Results and conclusion: The analyses reveal considerable overlap between chain estimates obtained from conventional methods, thus leading to similar estimates of recent temporal expansion. The Gap Procedure and DM-PhyClus suggest however moderately different chains. Nevertheless, all estimates stress that longer older chains are responsible for a sizeable proportion of the sampled incident cases among MSMs. Curbing the HIV epidemic will require strategies aimed specifically at preventing such growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emerald Basin on the Scotian Shelf off Nova Scotia, Canada, is home to a globally unique aggregation of the glass sponge Vazella pourtalesi, first documented in the region in 1889. In 2009, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) implemented two Sponge Conservation Areas to protect these sponge grounds from bottom fishing activities. Together, the two conservation areas encompass 259 km2. In order to ascertain the degree to which the sponge grounds remain unprotected, we modelled the presence probability and predicted range distribution of V. pourtalesi on the Scotian Shelf using random forest modelling on presence-absence records. With a high degree of accuracy the random forest model predicted the highest probability of occurrence of V. pourtalesi in the inner basins on the central Scotian Shelf, with lower probabilities at the shelf break and in the Fundian and Northeast Channels. Bottom temperature was the most important determinant of its distribution in the model. Although the two DFO Sponge Conservation Areas protect some of the more significant concentrations of V. pourtalesi, much of its predicted distribution remains unprotected (over 99%). Examination of the hydrographic conditions in Emerald Basin revealed that the V. pourtalesi sponge grounds are associated with a warmer and more saline water mass compared to the surrounding shelf. Reconstruction of historical bottom temperature and salinity in Emerald Basin revealed strong multi-decadal variability, with average bottom temperatures varying by 8°C. We show that this species has persisted in the face of this climatic variability, possibly indicating how it will respond to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rationale: Interdisciplinarity is considered a key concept in the management of complex cases in healthcare. However, working in interdisciplinary teams requires the integration of many concepts and a large amount of effort. To help healthcare managers and professionals identify the strengths and weaknesses of their interdisciplinary team and to ensure its continuous improvement, we developed a tool called the IPC65. Objective: The purpose of this study was to test the reliability and validity of the IPC65. Methods: Based on a comprehensive review of the literature and qualitative and quantitative assessments, the IPC65 was developed. In this study, the analysis was based on 392 healthcare professionals and managers from short-term care settings who provided valid responses throughout the province of Quebec in Canada. Descriptive statistics, Cronbach’s alpha values, and inter-item correlations were measured, and a principal component analysis (PCA) was conducted. Item discrimination was used to provide an improved version of the IPC65. Results: The IPC65 showed good statistical results. The discriminant procedure provided the basis for shortening and improving the IPC65 to form the IPC59. Cronbach’s alpha values ranged from 0.857 to 0.967 in IPC59, demonstrating very good reliability for all four dimensions. The PCA showed good validity. Conclusion: The IPC59 can be used to assess the degree of integration of key concepts leading to interdisciplinarity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Influenza A virus commonly circulating in swine (IAV-S) is characterized by large genetic and antigenic diversity and, thus, improvements in different aspects of IAV-S surveillance are needed to achieve desirable goals of surveillance such as to establish the capacity to forecast with the greatest accuracy the number of influenza cases likely to arise. Advancements in modeling approaches provide the opportunity to use different models for surveillance. However, in order to make improvements in surveillance, it is necessary to assess the predictive ability of such models. This study compares the sensitivity and predictive accuracy of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GLARMA) model, and the random forest (RF) model with respect to the frequency of influenza A virus (IAV) in Ontario swine. Diagnostic data on IAV submissions in Ontario swine between 2007 and 2015 were obtained from the Animal Health Laboratory (University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada). Each modeling approach was examined for predictive accuracy, evaluated by the root mean square error, the normalized root mean square error, and the model’s ability to anticipate increases and decreases in disease frequency. Likewise, we verified the magnitude of improvement offered by the ARIMA, GLARMA and RF models over a seasonal-naïve method. Using the diagnostic submissions, the occurrence of seasonality and the long-term trend in IAV infections were also investigated. The RF model had the smallest root mean square error in the prospective analysis and tended to predict increases in the number of diagnostic submissions and positive virological submissions at weekly and monthly intervals with a higher degree of sensitivity than the ARIMA and GLARMA models. The number of weekly positive virological submissions is significantly higher in the fall calendar season compared to the summer calendar season. Positive counts at weekly and monthly intervals demonstrated a significant increasing trend. Overall, this study shows that the RF model offers enhanced prediction ability over the ARIMA and GLARMA time series models for predicting the frequency of IAV infections in diagnostic submissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although MD/PhD programs require considerable commitment on behalf of students and learning institutions, they serve as an integral means of training future physician-scientists; individuals who engage in translational medicine. As attrition from these programs has longstanding effects on the community of translational medicine and comes at substantial cost to MD/PhD programs, we aimed to identify determinants that were associated with satisfaction among MD/PhD graduates, a feature that might inform on limiting program attrition. Anonymized data from a national survey of 139 Canadian MD/PhD alumni was analyzed. Factor analysis was conducted to evaluate the reliability of three questions that measured satisfaction and logistic regression was used to assess the association of outcomes with 17 independent determinants. Eighty-one percent of graduates were satisfied with MD/PhD training. Factor analysis confirmed the reliability of the questions measuring satisfaction. Determinants of self-reported satisfaction with physician-scientist training included co-authorship of more than six manuscripts during MD/PhD training. Additionally, protected research time at the place of current appointment was strongly associated with agreement that MD/PhD training had helped career progression. Demographic variables were not associated with any satisfaction indicator. Taken together, the majority of Canadian MD/PhD graduates are satisfied with their physician-scientist training. Project collaboration leading to co-authorships and protected research time were strongly associated with training satisfaction among graduates. If the value of collaboration can be realized among current and future physician-scientist trainees who are dissatisfied with their training, this might ultimately reduce program attrition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hockey is a complex and multifaceted game, yet many of the statistical tools used to evaluate performance are univariate. To garner a better understanding of hockey’s multifaceted nature, two structural equation models (SEMs) assessing the interrelations between offense, defense, and possession were built from three seasons of NHL data. Overall, it was found that the concepts of offense, defense, and possession are best understood via a small constellation of measured variables, and that offense mediates the relationship between possession and defense such that higher levels of offense leads to poorer defensive performance. These findings are discussed within the context of ranking player performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: We aimed to explore whether mortality data are consistent with the view that aging is accelerated for people with a history of incarceration compared to the general population, using data on mortality rates and life expectancy for persons in Ontario, Canada. Methods: We obtained data from the Ontario Ministry of Community Safety and Correctional Services on all adults admitted to provincial correctional facilities in Ontario in 2000, and linked these data with death records from provincial vital statistics between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2012. We used life table methods to calculate mortality rates and life expectancies for this cohort by sex and 5-year age group. We similarly generated population comparison rates using publicly available data for the general population of Ontario in 2006 as the midpoint of the follow up period. We compared these mortality indices between the 2000 Ontario prison cohort and the general population by age group and sex. Results: The difference in all-cause mortality rates between the 2000 Ontario prison cohort and the general population was greatest for younger adults, with the prison cohort experiencing rates of death that would be expected for persons at least 15 years older at ages 20 to 44 for men and ages 20 to 59 for women. Life expectancy in the 2000 Ontario prison cohort was most similar to life expectancy of persons five years older in the general population at age intervals 20 to 45 in men and 20 to 30 in women. Conclusions: For most of adulthood, life expectancy and mortality rates are worse for adults with a history of incarceration than for the general population in Ontario, Canada. However, the association between mortality and incarceration status is modified by age, with the greatest relative burden of mortality experienced by younger persons with a history of incarceration and modified by sex, with worse relative mortality in women. Future research should explore the association between incarceration status and markers of aging including mortality, morbidity and physical appearance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Off-road vehicles are popular and thrilling for youth outside urban settings, yet sometimes result in a serious crash that requires emergency medical care. The relation between birthdays and the subsequent risk of an off-road vehicle crash is unknown. Methods: We conducted a population-based before-and-after longitudinal analysis of youth who received emergency medical care in Ontario, Canada, due to an off-road vehicle crash between April 1, 2002, and March 31, 2014. We identified youth injured in an off-road vehicle crash through population-based health-care databases of individuals treated for medical emergencies. We included youth aged 19 years or younger, distinguishing juniors (age ≤ 15 years) from juveniles (age ≥ 16 years). Results: A total 32,777 youths accounted for 35,202 emergencies due to off-road vehicle crashes within six months of their nearest birthday. Comparing the six months following a birthday to the six months prior to a birthday, crashes increased by about 2.7 events per 1000 juniors (18.3 vs 21.0, p < 0.0001). The difference equaled a 15% increase in relative risk (95% confidence interval 12 to 18). The increase extended for months following a birthday, was not observed for traffic crashes due to on-road vehicles, and was partially explained by a lack of helmet wearing. As expected, off-road crash risks did not change significantly following a birthday among juveniles (19.2 vs 19.8, p = 0.61). Conclusions: Off-road vehicle crashes leading to emergency medical care increase following a birthday in youth below age 16 years. An awareness of this association might inform public health messages, gift-giving practices, age-related parental permissions, and prevention by primary care physicians. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To examine HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor (statin) drug dispensing patterns to Nova Scotia Seniors' Pharmacare program (NSSPP) beneficiaries over a 14-year period in response to: 1) rosuvastatin market entry in 2003, 2) JUPITER trial publication in 2008, and 3) generic atorvastatin availability in 2010. Methods: All NSSPP beneficiaries who redeemed at least one prescription for a statin from April 1, 1999 to March 31, 2013 were included. Aggregated, anonymous monthly prescription counts were extracted by the Nova Scotia Department of Health and Wellness (Nova Scotia, Canada) and changes in dispensing patterns of statins were measured. Data were analyzed using descriptive analyses and interrupted time series methods. Results: The percentage of NSSPP beneficiaries dispensed any statin increased from 5.3% in April 1999 to 20.7% in March 2013. In 1999, most NSSPP beneficiaries were dispensed either simvastatin (29.5%) or atorvastatin (28.7%). When rosuvastatin was added to the NSSPP Formulary in August 2003, prescriptions dispensed for simvastatin, lovastatin, pravastatin, and fluvastatin declined significantly (slope change, -0.0027; 95% confidence interval (CI), (-0.0046, -0.0009)). This significant decline continued following the publication of JUPITER (level change, -0.1974; 95% CI, (-0.2991, -0.0957)) and the availability of generic atorvastatin (level change, -0.2436; 95% CI, (-0.3314, -0.1558)). Atorvastatin was not significantly affected by any of the three interventions, although it maintained an overall decreasing trend. Only upon the availability of generic atorvastatin did the upward trend in rosuvastatin use decrease significantly (slope change, -0.0010, 95% CI, (-0.0015, -0.0005)). Conclusions: The type and rate of statins dispensed to NSSPP beneficiaries changed from 1999 to 2013 in response to the availability of new agents and publication of the JUPITER trial. The overall proportion of NSSPP beneficiaries dispensed a statin increased approximately 4-fold during the study period. In 2013, rosuvastatin was the most commonly dispensed statin (44.1%) followed by atorvastatin (39.1%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the development of landscape patterns over broad spatial and temporal scales is a major contribution to ecological sciences and is a critical area of research for forested land management. Boreal forests represent an excellent case study for such research because these forests have undergone significant changes over recent decades. We analyzed the temporal trends of four widely-used landscape pattern indices for boreal forests of Canada: forest cover, largest forest patch index, forest edge density, and core (interior) forest cover. The indices were computed over landscape extents ranging from 5,000 ha (n = 18,185) to 50,000 ha (n = 1,662) and across nine major ecozones of Canada. We used 26 years of Landsat satellite imagery to derive annualized trends of the landscape pattern indices. The largest declines in forest cover, largest forest patch index, and core forest cover were observed in the Boreal Shield, Boreal Plain, and Boreal Cordillera ecozones. Forest edge density increased at all landscape extents for all ecozones. Rapidly changing landscapes, defined as the 90th percentile of forest cover change, were among the most forested initially and were characterized by four times greater decrease in largest forest patch index, three times greater increase in forest edge density, and four times greater decrease in core forest cover compared with all 50,000 ha landscapes. Moreover, approximately 18% of all 50,000 ha landscapes did not change due to a lack of disturbance. The pattern database results provide important context for forest management agencies committed to implementing ecosystem-based management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rates of psychopathology are elevated in marginalized and unstably housed persons, underscoring the need for applicable clinical measures for these populations. The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) is a clinical instrument principally developed for use in schizophrenia to identify the presence and severity of psychopathology symptoms. The current study investigates whether a reliable and valid PANSS factor structure emerges in a marginally housed, heterogeneous sample recruited from the Downtown Eastside of Vancouver where substance use disorders and psychiatric illness are pervasive. Participants (n = 270) underwent structured clinical assessments including the PANSS and then were randomly assigned to either exploratory (EFA) or confirmatory factor analytic (CFA) subsamples. EFA pointed to a novel three factor PANSS. This solution was supported by CFA. All retained items (28 out of 30) load significantly upon hypothesized factors and model goodness of fit analyses are in the acceptable to good range. Each of the three first-order factor constructs, labeled Psychosis/Disorganized, Negative Symptoms/Hostility, and Insight/Awareness, contributed significantly to measurement of a higher-order psychopathology construct. Further, the latent structure of this 3-factor solution appears temporally consistent over one-year. This PANSS factor structure appears valid and reliable for use in persons with multimorbidity, including substance use disorders. The structure is somewhat distinct from existing solutions likely due to the unique characteristics of this marginally housed sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite the effects of food insecurity on health are well documented, clear governmental policies to face food insecurity do not exist in western countries. In Canada, interventions to face food insecurity are developed at the community level and can be categorized into two basic strategies: those providing an immediate response to the need for food, defined “traditional” and those targeting the improvement of participants’ social cohesion, capabilities and management of their own nutrition, defined “alternative”. Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of food insecurity interventions on food security status and perceived health of participants. Design: This was a longitudinal multilevel study implemented in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Participants were recruited in a two-stage cluster sampling frame. Clustering units were community organizations working on food insecurity; units of analysis were participants in community food security interventions. A total of 450 participants were interviewed at the beginning and after 9 months of participation in traditional or alternative food security interventions. Food security and perceived health were investigated as dependent variables. Differences overtime were assessed through multilevel regression models. Results: Participants in traditional interventions lowered their food insecurity at follow-up. Decreases among participants in alternative interventions were not statistically significant. Participants in traditional interventions also improved physical (B coefficient 3.00, CI 95% 0.42–5.59) and mental health (B coefficient 6.25, CI 95% 4.15–8.35). Conclusions: Our results challenge the widely held view suggesting the ineffectiveness of traditional interventions in the short term. Although effects may be intervention-dependent, food banks decreased food insecurity and, in so doing, positively affected perceived health. Although study findings demonstrate that food banks offer short term reprise from the effects of food insecurity, the question as to whether food banks are the most appropriate solution to food insecurity still needs to be addressed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]