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Since 2020, the world has faced two unprecedented shocks: lockdowns (regulation) and the invasion of Ukraine (war). Although we realise the health and economic effects of these shocks, more research is needed on the effect on happiness and whether the type of shock plays a role. Therefore, in this paper, we determine whether these macro-level shocks affected happiness, how these effects differ, and how long it takes for happiness to adapt to previous levels. The latter will allow us to test whether adaptation theory holds at the macro level. We use a unique dataset of ten countries spanning the Northern and Southern hemispheres derived from tweets extracted in real-time per country. Applying Natural Language Processing, we obtain these tweets' underlying sentiment scores, after which we calculate a happiness score (Gross National Happiness) and derive daily time series data. Our Twitter dataset is combined with Oxford's COVID-19 Government Response Tracker data. Considering the results of the Difference-in-Differences and event studies jointly, we are confident that the shocks led to lower happiness levels, both with the lockdown and the invasion shock. We find that the effect size is significant and that the lockdown shock had a bigger effect than the invasion. Considering both types of shocks, the adaptation to previous happiness levels occurred within two to three weeks. Following our findings of similar behaviour in happiness to both types of shocks, the question of whether other types of shocks will have similar effects is posited. Regardless of the length of the adaptation period, understanding the effects of macro-level shocks on happiness is essential for policymakers, as happiness has a spillover effect on other variables such as production, safety and trust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The linkages between the US and China, the world's two major agricultural powers, have brought great uncertainty to the global food markets. Inspired by these, this paper examines the extreme risk spillovers between US and Chinese agricultural futures markets during significant crises. We use a copula-conditional value at risk (CoVaR) model with Markov-switching regimes to capture the tail dependence in their pair markets. The study covers the period from January 2006 to December 2022 and identifies two distinct dependence regimes (stable and crisis periods). Moreover, we find significant and asymmetric upside/downside extreme risk spillovers between the US and Chinese markets, which are highly volatile in crises. Additionally, the impact of international capital flows (the financial channel) on risk spillovers is particularly pronounced during the global financial crisis. During the period of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine 2022 war, the impact of supply chain disruptions (the non-financial channel) is highlighted. Our findings provide a theoretical reference for monitoring the co-movements in agricultural futures markets and practical insights for managing investment portfolios and enhancing food market stability during crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Ukraine has the second-largest HIV epidemic in Europe, with most new cases officially attributed to heterosexual transmission. Indirect evidence suggested substantial HIV transmission from people who inject drugs (PWID) to their sexual partners. This study examined the extent of heterosexual HIV transmission between PWID and non-drug-using adolescent girls and young women (AGYW). Methods: A cross-sectional survey recruited AGYW diagnosed with heterosexually-acquired HIV between 2016 and 2019 in nine regions of Ukraine. AGYW were asked to identify and refer their sexual partners ('Partners'), who subsequently underwent HIV testing, and, if positive, HCV testing. Both AGYW and Partners completed an interview assessing HIV risk behaviors prior to AGYW's HIV diagnosis. Results: In August-December 2020, we enrolled 321 AGYW and 64 Partners. Among the Partners, 42% either self-reported IDU or were HCV-positive, indicating an IDU-related mode of HIV transmission. PWID Partners were more likely to report sexually transmitted infections (STI) and had lower educational levels. Of the 62 women who recruited at least one Partner, 40% had a PWID Partner. Within this subgroup, there was a higher prevalence of STIs (52% vs. 24%) and intimate partner violence (36% vs. 3%). Condom use was less common (52% vs. 38% reporting never use), and frequent alcohol or substance use before sex was higher (48% vs 30%) among AGYW with PWID Partner, although this difference did not reach statistical significance. Notably, 52% of women were aware of their Partners' IDU. Conclusion: At least 40% of heterosexual transmission among AGYW in Ukraine can be linked to PWID partners. Intensified, targeted HIV prevention efforts are essential for key and bridge populations (PWID and their sexual partners), addressing the biological and structural determinants of transmission between key and bridge populations, such as IDU- and HIV status disclosure, STIs, IPV, and stigma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wars increase the importance of government functions, yet they also constrain their ability to fulfill these functions. In particular, wars hinder economic activity, thereby limiting governments' capacity to raise the revenues required to maintain stability and meet the heightened needs of citizens. Effective governance is therefore severely undermined in times of war. However, empirical research on how wars affect government procurement is limited. We address this gap by exploring procurement dynamics using over one million public purchases of goods and services in Ukraine between January 2021 and October 2022, corresponding to the Russian invasion of the country. We document a large fall in the total number of purchases since the invasion and an increase in the share of successfully completed procurements. This higher success rate comes at the cost of efficiency, with the government paying more to source their goods. This can be attributed to the decline in the share of government purchases via online auctions and the reduced competition. Thus, the prioritization of the quick acquisition of goods and services forced governments to sacrifice cost-effectiveness. In summary, the war did not lower the successful purchasing of private goods and services, and transparency was not decreased. However, the trade-off of speed and transparency for greater costs may become increasingly problematic with the growing budget constraints resulting from the war. This article contributes to our understanding of the Ukrainian government choices during the early phase of the war. The results also highlight the importance of ensuring procurement efficiency and transparency when the war ends as reconstruction efforts will require substantial increases in government procurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Ukrainian Ministerial Order (UMO) recommends pneumococcal vaccine (PCV) in risk groups but not free-of-charge resulting in coverage <5% (crude estimation). In 2022, the vaccination calendar will include PCV for children <5years. Doctors' pneumococcal knowledge, attitudes and practices (КAP) are paramount to successful roll-out but unexplored. We surveyed doctors aiming to assess their KAP to address gaps and misconceptions and support PCV implementation. Methods: In March 2021, we selected and surveyed primary care doctors using simple random sampling and structured self-administered online questionnaire. We measured attitudes (importance, effectiveness, safety) and practices using 5-point Likert-type questions. We defined pneumococcal disease (PD) knowledge as low/moderate (<80%) and high (≥80%), PCV and overall knowledge as low (≤50%) and moderate/high (51–100%) and PCV attitudes and practices as negative/neutral (1.0–3.4) and positive (3.5–5.0). We calculated prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) using Poisson regression. Results: The response rate was 46% (286/628). Females represented 85% (243/285); the median age was 47 (interquartile range: 33–59, N = 281) years. Twenty-six percent (72/277) had high PD knowledge associated with age (>47 years: PR = 0.52, 95%CI: 0.30–0.90) and child-related UMO awareness (PR = 1.78, 95%CI: 1.04–3.08); 65% (182/278) had moderate/high PCV knowledge associated with positive attitudes towards PCV effectiveness (PR = 2.08, 95%CI: 1.20–3.59). Overall knowledge was moderate/high in 69% (188/271); 83% (220/265) had positive PCV attitudes; 52% (135/258) had positive practices associated with female sex (PR = 2.11, 95%CI: 1.09–4.09), positive attitudes (PR = 3.40, 95%CI: 1.23–9.39) and perception of vaccine supply as medium/big barrier (PR = 1.66, 95%CI: 1.02–2.72). Conclusion: We observed moderate pneumococcal knowledge, especially in older doctors, positive PCV attitudes and neutral practices. Females and doctors with positive attitudes recommended PCV more. For successful PCV implementation, we recommend proper planning and prior educational activities targeting patients and primary care doctors, especially older males, to improve knowledge, introduce PCV and address concerns while ensuring uninterrupted vaccine supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ukraine's tug-of-war between Russia and the West has had significant and lasting consequences for the country. In 2013, Viktor Yanukovych, the Ukrainian president aligned with Russia, opted against signing an association agreement with the European Union. This agreement aimed to facilitate trade and travel between the EU and Ukraine. This decision sparked widespread protests that coalesced in Kyiv's Maidan Square, eventually becoming known as the Euromaidan protests. In this study, we analyze the protest data from 2013, sourced from Ukraine's Center for Social and Labor Research. Despite the dataset's limitations and occasional inconsistencies, we demonstrate the extraction of valuable insights and the construction of a descriptive model from such data. Our investigation reveals a pre-existing state of self-excitation within the system even before the onset of the Euromaidan protests. This self-excitation intensified during the Euromaidan protests. A statistical analysis indicates that the government's utilization of force correlates with increased future protests, exacerbating rather than quelling the protest movement. Furthermore, we introduce the implementation of Hawkes process models to comprehend the spatiotemporal dynamics of the protest activity. Our findings highlight that, while protest activities spread across the entire country, the driving force behind the dynamics of these protests was the level of activity in Kyiv. Furthermore, in contrast to prior research that emphasized geographical proximity as a key predictor of event propagation, our study illustrates that the political alignment among oblasts, which are the distinct municipalities comprising Ukraine, had a more profound impact than mere geographic distance. This underscores the significance of social and cultural factors in molding the trajectory of political movements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Belarus and Ukraine were the countries most affected by the consequences of the Chornobyl nuclear power plant in 1986. A study of perinatal mortality in Belarus found a highly statistically significant increase in the 1990s in the most contaminated oblast Gomel but no increase during this period in the rest of Belarus. As a possible mechanism to interpret this increase as a late Chornobyl effect, it has been suggested that strontium-90 contained in Chornobyl fallout, incorporated during menarche, impairs the immune system of pregnant women which in turn increases perinatal mortality. In the present study, this hypothesis is tested using data from Ukraine. Methods: Annual data on perinatal mortality, in the period 1981–2006 were provided by the Ministry of Public Health of Ukraine. Trends in perinatal mortality rates in the most contaminated regions of Ukraine (Kyiv and Zhytomyr oblasts and the city of Kyiv; study region) were compared with rates in the rest of Ukraine (control region). To identify any differences in perinatal mortality trends between the study and control regions, the ratios of perinatal mortality rates in the study region to the rates in the control region were analyzed using the calculated strontium concentration as a predictor. Results: A trend analysis of perinatal mortality rates in Ukraine revealed two bell-shaped deviations from a long-term exponential trend with maxima at the beginning and end of the 1990s. The same pattern was found in the data from the study and control regions, but the deviations were almost three times higher in the study region than in the control region. An analysis of the ratios of perinatal mortality rates in the study region to the rates in the control region (odds ratios) showed an increase and decrease during the 1990s which was approximated by a lognormal density distribution. The calculated strontium concentration, when used as a predictor, also fitted the data well. Thus, the data from Ukraine confirms the results from Belarus. The analysis of the odds ratios revealed about 1000 excess perinatal deaths in the study region in the period 1990–2004. The corresponding figure for Ukraine as a whole was estimated at 3500 perinatal deaths. Conclusion: It is hypothesized that the observed increase in perinatal mortality in the 1990s may be a late effect of incorporated strontium-90 on the immune system of pregnant women. The analysis is based on a theoretical model, as no data on strontium concentrations were available; the results should therefore be interpreted with caution. An updated study for Belarus would be desirable to corroborate the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on monthly economic data spanning from January 2015 to December 2022, we have established an analytical framework to examine the "Russia-Ukraine conflict—financial market pressure and energy market—China carbon emission trading prices." To achieve this objective, we developed indices for financial system pressure, the energy market, and investor sentiment, applying a mediation effects model to validate their transmission mechanisms. Subsequently, the TVP-SV-VAR model was employed to scrutinize the nonlinear impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the valuation of China's carbon emission trading rights. This model integrates time-varying parameters (TVP) and stochastic volatility (SV), utilizing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technology for parameter estimation. Finally, various wavelet analysis techniques, including continuous wavelet transform, cross-wavelet transform, and wavelet coherence spectrum, were applied to decompose time series data into distinct time-frequency scales, facilitating an analysis of the lead-lag relationships within each time series. The research outcomes provide crucial insights for safeguarding the interests of trading organizations, refining the structure of the carbon market, and mitigating systemic risks on a global scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the dynamic volatility connectedness of geopolitical risk, stocks, bonds, bitcoin, gold, and oil from January 2018 to April 2022 in this study. We look at connectivity during the Pre-COVID, COVID, and Russian-Ukraine war subsamples. During the COVID-19 and Russian-Ukraine war periods, we find that conventional, Islamic, and sustainable stock indices are net volatility transmitters, whereas gold, US bonds, GPR, oil, and bitcoin are net volatility receivers. During the Russian-Ukraine war, the commodity index (DJCI) shifted from being a net recipient of volatility to a net transmitter of volatility. Furthermore, we discover that bilateral intercorrelations are strong within stock indices (DJWI, DJIM, and DJSI) but weak across all other financial assets. Our study has important implications for policymakers, regulators, investors, and financial market participants who want to improve their existing strategies for avoiding financial losses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the dynamic and asymmetric propagation of return spillovers between sectoral commodities and industry stock markets in China. Using a daily dataset from February 2007 to July 2022, we employ a time-varying vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model to examine the asymmetric return spillovers and dynamic connectedness across sectors. The results reveal significant time-varying spillovers among these sectors, with the industry stocks acting as the primary transmitter of information to the commodity market. Materials, energy, and industrials stock sectors contribute significantly to these spillovers due to their close ties to commodity production and processing. The study also identifies significant asymmetric spillovers with bad returns dominating, influenced by major economic and political events such as the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2015 Chinese stock market crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Furthermore, our study highlights the unique dynamics within the Chinese market, where net information spillovers from the stock market to commodities drive the financialization process, which differs from the bidirectional commodity financialization observed in other markets. Finally, portfolio analysis reveals that the minimum connectedness portfolio outperforms other approaches and effectively reflects asymmetries. Understanding these dynamics and sectoral heterogeneities has important implications for risk management, policy development, and trading practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]