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Background: Asymptomatic Leishmania donovani infections outnumber clinical presentations, however the predictors for development of active disease are not well known. We aimed to identify serological, immunological and genetic markers for progression from L. donovani infection to clinical Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL). Methods: We enrolled all residents >2 years of age in 27 VL endemic villages in Bihar (India). Blood samples collected on filter paper on two occasions 6–12 months apart, were tested for antibodies against L. donovani with rK39-ELISA and DAT. Sero converters, (negative for both tests in the first round but positive on either of the two during the second round) and controls (negative on both tests on both occasions) were followed for three years. At the start of follow-up venous blood was collected for the following tests: DAT, rK39- ELISA, Quantiferon assay, SNP/HLA genotyping and L.donovani specific quantitative PCR. Results: Among 1,606 subjects enrolled,17 (8/476 seroconverters and 9/1,130 controls) developed VL (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.1–8.3). High DAT and rK39 ELISA antibody titers as well as positive qPCR were strongly and significantly associated with progression from seroconversion to VL with odds ratios of 19.1, 30.3 and 20.9 respectively. Most VL cases arose early (median 5 months) during follow-up. Conclusion: We confirmed the strong association between high DAT and/or rK39 titers and progression to disease among asymptomatic subjects and identified qPCR as an additional predictor. Low predictive values do not warrant prophylactic treatment but as most progressed to VL early during follow-up, careful oberservation of these subjects for at least 6 months is indicated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Studies employing serological, DTH or conventional PCR techniques suggest a vast proportion of Leishmania infected individuals living in regions endemic for Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) remain asymptomatic. This study was designed to assess whether quantitative PCR (qPCR) can be used for detection of asymptomatic or early Leishmania donovani infection and as a predictor of progression to symptomatic disease. Methods: The study included 1469 healthy individuals living in endemic region (EHC) including both serology-positive and -negative subjects. TaqMan based qPCR assay was done on peripheral blood of each subject using kDNA specific primers and probes. Results: A large proportion of EHC 511/1469 (34.78%) showed qPCR positivity and 56 (3.81% of 1469 subjects) had more than 1 calculated parasite genome/ml of blood. However, the number of individuals with parasite load above 5 genomes/ml was only 20 (1.36% of 1469). There was poor agreement between serological testing and qPCR (k = 0.1303), and 42.89% and 31.83% EHC were qPCR positive in seropositive and seronegative groups, respectively. Ten subjects had developed to symptomatic VL after 12 month of their follow up examination, of which eight were initially positive according to qPCR and among these, five had high parasite load. Discussion: Thus, qPCR can help us to detect significant early parasitaemia, thereby assisting us in recognition of potential progressors to clinical disease. This test could facilitate early intervention, decreased morbidity and mortality, and possibly interruption of disease transmission. Author Summary: Anthroponotic VL caused by Leishmania donovani in the Indian subcontinent accounts for 70% of the world burden of VL. Among the estimated 100,000 cases of VL acquired annually in India, 90% occur in the state of Bihar. Leishmania infection can result in either symptomatic or asymptomatic infection. L. donovani infection can also manifest as post-kala azar dermal leishmaniasis, a chronic cutaneous form thought to provide the reservoir for anthroponotic transmission of VL in regions endemic for this parasite species. We hypothesized that, in areas endemic for L. donovani, asymptomatic infections might also play a crucial role in disease transmission. This study describes use of quantitative PCR (qPCR) to determine the infection status in individuals living in an endemic region of India. We hypothesized that parasite load estimation by qPCR of peripheral blood cells among healthy individuals living in the endemic region might reveal the true frequency of infections through direct evidence of parasitemia. We reasoned this test would detect both asymptomatic non-progressors as well as asymptomatic individuals who will progress to fully symptomatic VL. Serologic testing by ELISA or DAT showed poor agreement with molecular detection of parasite DNA by qPCR, suggesting the tests differentiate between infection and immune response. Amongst ten healthy individuals who progressed to VL, only six were serologically positive whereas eight were initially qPCR positive, among whom five had high parasite loads in their blood. Thus, deployment of qPCR technique to estimate the presence and level of parasitemia in healthy individuals from Leishmania endemic regions may contribute to early case detection, thereby reducing morbidity and mortality. Consistent with the goals of the VL control and elimination program, this early intervention approach could help interrupt disease transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Studies employing serological, DTH or conventional PCR techniques suggest a vast proportion of Leishmania infected individuals living in regions endemic for Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) remain asymptomatic. This study was designed to assess whether quantitative PCR (qPCR) can be used for detection of asymptomatic or early Leishmania donovani infection and as a predictor of progression to symptomatic disease. Methods: The study included 1469 healthy individuals living in endemic region (EHC) including both serology-positive and -negative subjects. TaqMan based qPCR assay was done on peripheral blood of each subject using kDNA specific primers and probes. Results: A large proportion of EHC 511/1469 (34.78%) showed qPCR positivity and 56 (3.81% of 1469 subjects) had more than 1 calculated parasite genome/ml of blood. However, the number of individuals with parasite load above 5 genomes/ml was only 20 (1.36% of 1469). There was poor agreement between serological testing and qPCR (k = 0.1303), and 42.89% and 31.83% EHC were qPCR positive in seropositive and seronegative groups, respectively. Ten subjects had developed to symptomatic VL after 12 month of their follow up examination, of which eight were initially positive according to qPCR and among these, five had high parasite load. Discussion: Thus, qPCR can help us to detect significant early parasitaemia, thereby assisting us in recognition of potential progressors to clinical disease. This test could facilitate early intervention, decreased morbidity and mortality, and possibly interruption of disease transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Asymptomatic persons infected with the parasites causing visceral leishmaniasis (VL) usually outnumber clinically apparent cases by a ratio of 4–10 to 1. We assessed the risk of progression from infection to disease as a function of DAT and rK39 serological titers. Methods: We used available data on four cohorts from villages in India and Nepal that are highly endemic for Leishmania donovani. In each cohort two serosurveys had been conducted. Based on results of initial surveys, subjects were classified as seronegative, moderately seropositive or strongly seropositive using both DAT and rK39. Based on the combination of first and second survey results we identified seroconvertors for both markers. Seroconvertors were subdivided in high and low titer convertors. Subjects were followed up for at least one year following the second survey. Incident VL cases were recorded and verified. Results: We assessed a total of 32,529 enrolled subjects, for a total follow-up time of 72,169 person years. Altogether 235 incident VL cases were documented. The probability of progression to disease was strongly associated with initial serostatus and with seroconversion; this was particularly the case for those with high titers and most prominently among seroconvertors. For high titer DAT convertors the hazard ratio reached as high as 97.4 when compared to non-convertors. The strengths of the associations varied between cohorts and between markers but similar trends were observed between the four cohorts and the two markers. Discussion: There is a strongly increased risk of progressing to disease among DAT and/or rK39 seropositives with high titers. The options for prophylactic treatment for this group merit further investigation, as it could be of clinical benefit if it prevents progression to disease. Prophylactic treatment might also have a public health benefit if it can be corroborated that these asymptomatically infected individuals are infectious for sand flies. Author Summary: To study the association between positive serology for VL among asymptomatic persons and progression to disease, we analyzed combined data from two different cohort studies in which over 32,000 subjects were enrolled. All subjects were screened for presence of antibodies to L. donovani with DAT and rK39. After an interval of 6–12 months, a second round of surveys was conducted in which seroconvertors were identified, i.e. persons seronegative at baseline that had become seropositive in the interval between surveys. We subdivided the subjects according to serologic titers scored as negative, moderately positive or strongly positive. During follow-up we observed that the risk of progressing to disease was not very much different between seronegative and moderately seropositive subjects, but strongly increased for high titer seropositive subjects. This pattern was true for the initial serology, and even more pronounced among seroconvertors. Given the strongly increased risk of progression to disease among those with high DAT or rK39 titers, these data raise the question whether prophylactic treatment would be beneficial. The case for prophylactic treatment would be further strengthened if it could be shown that asymptomatically infected individuals are infectious to sand flies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Asymptomatic persons infected with the parasites causing visceral leishmaniasis (VL) usually outnumber clinically apparent cases by a ratio of 4–10 to 1. We assessed the risk of progression from infection to disease as a function of DAT and rK39 serological titers. Methods: We used available data on four cohorts from villages in India and Nepal that are highly endemic for Leishmania donovani. In each cohort two serosurveys had been conducted. Based on results of initial surveys, subjects were classified as seronegative, moderately seropositive or strongly seropositive using both DAT and rK39. Based on the combination of first and second survey results we identified seroconvertors for both markers. Seroconvertors were subdivided in high and low titer convertors. Subjects were followed up for at least one year following the second survey. Incident VL cases were recorded and verified. Results: We assessed a total of 32,529 enrolled subjects, for a total follow-up time of 72,169 person years. Altogether 235 incident VL cases were documented. The probability of progression to disease was strongly associated with initial serostatus and with seroconversion; this was particularly the case for those with high titers and most prominently among seroconvertors. For high titer DAT convertors the hazard ratio reached as high as 97.4 when compared to non-convertors. The strengths of the associations varied between cohorts and between markers but similar trends were observed between the four cohorts and the two markers. Discussion: There is a strongly increased risk of progressing to disease among DAT and/or rK39 seropositives with high titers. The options for prophylactic treatment for this group merit further investigation, as it could be of clinical benefit if it prevents progression to disease. Prophylactic treatment might also have a public health benefit if it can be corroborated that these asymptomatically infected individuals are infectious for sand flies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Asymptomatic persons infected with the parasites causing visceral leishmaniasis (VL) usually outnumber clinically apparent cases by a ratio of 4–10 to 1. We describe patterns of markers of Leishmania donovani infection and clinical VL in relation to age in Bihar, India. Methods: We selected eleven villages highly endemic for Leishmania donovani. During a 1-year interval we conducted two house to house surveys during which we collected blood samples on filter paper from all consenting individuals aged 2 years and above. Samples were tested for anti-leishmania serology by Direct Agglutination Test (DAT) and rK39 ELISA. Data collected during the surveys included information on episodes of clinical VL among study participants. Results: We enrolled 13,163 persons; 6.2% were reactive to DAT and 5.9% to rK39. Agreement between the tests was weak (kappa = 0.30). Among those who were negative on both tests at baseline, 3.6% had converted to sero-positive on either of the two tests one year later. Proportions of sero-positives and sero-converters increased steadily with age. Clinical VL occurred mainly among children and young adults (median age 19 years). Discussion: Although infection with L. donovani is assumed to be permanent, serological markers revert to negative. Most VL cases occur at younger ages, yet we observed a steady increase with age in the frequency of sero-positivity and sero-conversion. Our findings can be explained by a boosting effect upon repeated exposure to the parasite or by intermittent release of parasites in infected subjects from safe target cells. A certain proportion of sero-negative subjects could have been infected but below the threshold of antibody abundance for our serologic testing. Author Summary: In this study we assessed trends with age in the probability of being sero-positive or sero-converting for two serological markers of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) among asymptomatic residents of high incidence villages. As markers we used Direct Agglutination Test (DAT) and rK39 ELISA. We also compared titers among asymptomatic sero-positives with those of known recent VL cases among our study population. Infection with VL is assumed to be permanent, but sero-positivity is a temporary phenomenon. Though clinical VL was most common among children and young adults (median age 19 years), we observed a statistically significant increase with age in the probability of being sero-positive and in the probability of sero-converting. We also observed that the average antibody titers among asymptomatic sero-positives were much lower than those among recent clinical VL cases. The increase with age in the probability of being sero-positive but also in the probability of sero-conversion can be explained by subjects experiencing repeated episodes of sero-positivity. This could be due to a boosting effect upon re-exposure, or to internal release of parasites from safe target cells. The implication of our findings is that in VL endemic areas it will be difficult to reliably distinguish between infected and non-infected subjects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Asymptomatic persons infected with the parasites causing visceral leishmaniasis (VL) usually outnumber clinically apparent cases by a ratio of 4-10 to 1. We describe patterns of markers of Leishmania donovani infection and clinical VL in relation to age in Bihar, India. Methods: We selected eleven villages highly endemic for Leishmania donovani. During a 1-year interval we conducted two house to house surveys during which we collected blood samples on filter paper from all consenting individuals aged 2 years and above. Samples were tested for anti-leishmania serology by Direct Agglutination Test (DAT) and rK39 ELISA. Data collected during the surveys included information on episodes of clinical VL among study participants. Results: We enrolled 13,163 persons; 6.2% were reactive to DAT and 5.9% to rK39. Agreement between the tests was weak (kappa = 0.30). Among those who were negative on both tests at baseline, 3.6% had converted to sero-positive on either of the two tests one year later. Proportions of sero-positives and sero-converters increased steadily with age. Clinical VL occurred mainly among children and young adults (median age 19 years). Discussion: Although infection with L. donovani is assumed to be permanent, serological markers revert to negative. Most VL cases occur at younger ages, yet we observed a steady increase with age in the frequency of sero-positivity and sero-conversion. Our findings can be explained by a boosting effect upon repeated exposure to the parasite or by intermittent release of parasites in infected subjects from safe target cells. A certain proportion of sero-negative subjects could have been infected but below the threshold of antibody abundance for our serologic testing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]