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The use of biomarkers to measure immune responses in serum is crucial for understanding population-level exposure and susceptibility to human pathogens. Advances in sample collection, multiplex testing, and computational modeling are transforming serosurveillance into a powerful tool for public health program design and response to infectious threats. In July 2018, 70 scientists from 16 countries met to perform a landscape analysis of approaches that support an integrated serosurveillance platform, including the consideration of issues for successful implementation. Here, we summarize the group's insights and proposed roadmap for implementation, including objectives, technical requirements, ethical issues, logistical considerations, and monitoring and evaluation.

Trachoma is an infectious disease characterized by repeated exposures to Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) that may ultimately lead to blindness. Efficient identification of communities with high infection burden could help target more intensive control efforts. We hypothesized that IgG seroprevalence in combination with geospatial layers, machine learning, and model-based geostatistics would be able to accurately predict future community-level ocular Ct infections detected by PCR. We used measurements from 40 communities in the hyperendemic Amhara region of Ethiopia to assess this hypothesis. Median Ct infection prevalence among children 0-5 years old increased from 6% at enrollment, in the context of recent mass drug administration (MDA), to 29% by month 36, following three years without MDA. At baseline, correlation between seroprevalence and Ct infection was stronger among children 0-5 years old (ρ = 0.77) than children 6-9 years old (ρ = 0.48), and stronger than the correlation between active trachoma and Ct infection (0-5y ρ = 0.56; 6-9y ρ = 0.40). Seroprevalence was the strongest concurrent predictor of infection prevalence at month 36 among children 0-5 years old (cross-validated R2 = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.58-0.85), though predictive performance declined substantially with increasing temporal lag between predictor and outcome measurements. Geospatial variables, a spatial Gaussian process, and stacked ensemble machine learning did not meaningfully improve predictions. Serological markers among children 0-5 years old may be an objective tool for identifying communities with high levels of ocular Ct infections, but accurate, future prediction in the context of changing transmission remains an open challenge.

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.

Improved sanitation has been hypothesized to reduce soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections by reducing the prevalence and concentration of STH eggs/larvae in soil. We evaluated the effect of a randomized sanitation program (providing households with an improved dual-pit latrine, tools for child/animal feces management, and behavioral messaging) on reducing the prevalence and concentration of STH eggs in soil from household courtyards. We collected soil samples from 1405 households enrolled in the sanitation intervention (n = 419) and control (n = 914) groups of a cluster-randomized controlled trial (WASH Benefits) in rural Bangladesh approximately 2 years after the initiation of the interventions. We analyzed samples for Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, and hookworm eggs by microscopy. We estimated prevalence ratios (PR) and egg count ratio (ECR) to compare the prevalence of STH eggs and arithmetic and geometric mean egg counts for STH eggs per gram of soil in the sanitation and control arms. Among intervention households, latrines achieved high and sustained user uptake by adults while child open defecation remained common and most households did not dispose of child feces hygienically. In courtyard soil from control households, the prevalence of any STH eggs was 75.7% and the prevalence of any larvated STH eggs was 67.3%. A. lumbricoides was detected in 63.0% of control samples and T. trichiura in 55.7% of control samples; hookworm was not detected in any sample. In the control arm, the arithmetic mean egg count for any STH was 3.96 eggs/dry gram, while the geometric mean was 1.58 eggs/dry gram. There was no difference between the intervention and control groups in the prevalence of any STH eggs (PR = 0.98 (95% CI: 0.91, 1.05)) or mean egg counts (ECR = 0.08 (95% CI: -0.10, 0.26) for geometric mean and 0.07 (95% CI: -0.22, 0.37) for arithmetic mean). Adjusted models gave similar results. A compound-level sanitation intervention that provided improved latrines and tools for disposal of child and animal feces did not have an impact on STH eggs in soil. In order to effectively reduce the prevalence and concentration of STH eggs in the environment, sustained, widespread use of sanitation strategies to isolate and hygienically dispose of child and animal feces may need to complement traditional strategies for containment of adult human feces. Trial Registration: NCT01590095.

BackgroundSerological surveys with multiplex bead assays can be used to assess seroprevalence to multiple pathogens simultaneously. However, multiple methods have been used to generate cut-off values for seropositivity and these may lead to inconsistent interpretation of results. A literature review was conducted to describe the methods used to determine cut-off values for data generated by multiplex bead assays.Methodology/principal findingsA search was conducted in PubMed that included articles published from January 2010 to January 2020, and 308 relevant articles were identified that included the terms "serology", "cut-offs", and "multiplex bead assays". After application of exclusion of articles not relevant to neglected tropical diseases (NTD), vaccine preventable diseases (VPD), or malaria, 55 articles were examined based on their relevance to NTD or VPD. The most frequently applied approaches to determine seropositivity included the use of presumed unexposed populations, mixture models, receiver operating curves (ROC), and international standards. Other methods included the use of quantiles, pre-exposed endemic cohorts, and visual inflection points.Conclusions/significanceFor disease control programmes, seropositivity is a practical and easily interpretable health metric but determining appropriate cut-offs for positivity can be challenging. Considerations for optimal cut-off approaches should include factors such as methods recommended by previous research, transmission dynamics, and the immunological backgrounds of the population. In the absence of international standards for estimating seropositivity in a population, the use of consistent methods that align with individual disease epidemiological data will improve comparability between settings and enable the assessment of changes over time.

The transmission of trachoma, caused by repeat infections with Chlamydia trachomatis, and many enteropathogens are linked to water quantity. We hypothesized that children living further from a water source would have higher exposure to C. trachomatis and enteric pathogens as determined by antibody responses. We used a multiplex bead assay to measure IgG antibody responses to C. trachomatis, Giardia intestinalis, Cryptosporidium parvum, Entamoeba histolytica, Salmonella enterica, Campylobacter jejuni, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) and Vibrio cholerae in eluted dried blood spots collected from 2267 children ages 0-9 years in 40 communities in rural Ethiopia in 2016. Linear distance from the child's house to the nearest water source was calculated. We derived seroprevalence cutoffs using external negative control populations, if available, or by fitting finite mixture models. We used targeted maximum likelihood estimation to estimate differences in seroprevalence according to distance to the nearest water source. Seroprevalence among 1-9-year-olds was 43% for C. trachomatis, 28% for S. enterica, 70% for E. histolytica, 54% for G. intestinalis, 96% for C. jejuni, 76% for ETEC and 94% for C. parvum. Seroprevalence increased with age for all pathogens. Median distance to the nearest water source was 473 meters (IQR 268, 719). Children living furthest from a water source had a 12% (95% CI: 2.6, 21.6) higher seroprevalence of S. enterica and a 12.7% (95% CI: 2.9, 22.6) higher seroprevalence of G. intestinalis compared to children living nearest. Seroprevalence for C. trachomatis and enteropathogens was high, with marked increases for most enteropathogens in the first two years of life. Children living further from a water source had higher seroprevalence of S. enterica and G. intestinalis indicating that improving access to water in the Ethiopia's Amhara region may reduce exposure to these enteropathogens in young children.

There is growing interest in local elimination of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infection in endemic settings. In such settings, highly sensitive diagnostics are needed to detect STH infection. We compared double-slide Kato-Katz, the most commonly used copromicroscopic detection method, to multi-parallel quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) in 2,799 stool samples from children aged 2-12 years in a setting in rural Bangladesh with predominantly low STH infection intensity. We estimated the sensitivity and specificity of each diagnostic using Bayesian latent class analysis. Compared to double-slide Kato-Katz, STH prevalence using qPCR was almost 3-fold higher for hookworm species and nearly 2-fold higher for Trichuris trichiura. Ascaris lumbricoides prevalence was lower using qPCR, and 26% of samples classified as A. lumbricoides positive by Kato-Katz were negative by qPCR. Amplicon sequencing of the 18S rDNA from 10 samples confirmed that A. lumbricoides was absent in samples classified as positive by Kato-Katz and negative by qPCR. The sensitivity of Kato-Katz was 49% for A. lumbricoides, 32% for hookworm, and 52% for T. trichiura; the sensitivity of qPCR was 79% for A. lumbricoides, 93% for hookworm, and 90% for T. trichiura. Specificity was ≥ 97% for both tests for all STH except for Kato-Katz for A. lumbricoides (specificity = 68%). There were moderate negative, monotonic correlations between qPCR cycle quantification values and eggs per gram quantified by Kato-Katz. While it is widely assumed that double-slide Kato-Katz has few false positives, our results indicate otherwise and highlight inherent limitations of the Kato-Katz technique. qPCR had higher sensitivity than Kato-Katz in this low intensity infection setting.

BackgroundSoil transmitted helminths (STH) infect >1.5 billion people. Mass drug administration (MDA) effectively reduces infection; however, there is evidence for rapid reinfection and risk of potential drug resistance. We conducted a randomized controlled trial in Bangladesh (WASH Benefits, NCT01590095) to assess whether water, sanitation, hygiene and nutrition interventions, alone and combined, reduce STH in a setting with ongoing MDA.Methodology/principal findingsIn 2012-2013, we randomized 720 clusters of 5551 pregnant women into water treatment, sanitation, handwashing, combined water+sanitation+handwashing (WSH), nutrition, nutrition+WSH (N+WSH) or control arms. In 2015-2016, we enrolled 7795 children, aged 2-12 years, of 4102 available women for STH follow-up and collected stool from 7187. We enumerated STH infections with Kato-Katz. We estimated intention-to-treat intervention effects on infection prevalence and intensity. Participants and field staff were not blinded; laboratory technicians and data analysts were blinded. Prevalence among controls was 36.8% for A. lumbricoides, 9.2% for hookworm and 7.5% for T. trichiura. Most infections were low-intensity. Compared to controls, the water intervention reduced hookworm by 31% (prevalence ratio [PR] = 0.69 (0.50,0.95), prevalence difference [PD] = -2.83 (-5.16,-0.50)) but did not affect other STH. Sanitation improvements reduced T. trichiura by 29% (PR = 0.71 (0.52,0.98), PD = -2.17 (-4.03,-0.38)), had a similar borderline effect on hookworm and no effect on A. lumbricoides. Handwashing and nutrition interventions did not reduce any STH. WSH and N+WSH reduced hookworm prevalence by 29-33% (WSH: PR = 0.71 (0.52,0.99), PD = -2.63 (-4.95,-0.31); N+WSH: PR = 0.67 (0.50,0.91), PD = -3.00 (-5.14,-0.85)) and marginally reduced A. lumbricoides. Effects on infection intensity were similar.Conclusions/significanceIn a low-intensity infection setting with MDA, we found modest but sustained hookworm reduction from water treatment and combined WSH interventions. Impacts were more pronounced on STH species with short vs. long-term environmental survival. Our findings suggest possible waterborne transmission for hookworm. Water treatment and sanitation improvements can augment MDA to interrupt STH transmission.Trial registrationNCT01590095.

The combination of deworming and improved sanitation or hygiene may result in greater reductions in soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infection than any single intervention on its own. We measured STH prevalence in rural Bangladesh and assessed potential interactions among deworming, hygienic latrines, and household finished floors.