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Modelling disease dynamics is most useful when data are limited. We present a spatial transmission model for the spread of canine rabies in the currently rabies-free wild dog population of Australia. The introduction of a sub-clinically infected dog from Indonesia is a distinct possibility, as is the spillover infection of wild dogs. Ranges for parameters were estimated from the literature and expert opinion, or set to span an order of magnitude. Rabies was judged to have spread spatially if a new infectious case appeared 120 km from the index case. We found 21% of initial value settings resulted in canine rabies spreading 120km, and on doing so at a median speed of 67 km/year. Parameters governing dog movements and behaviour, around which there is a paucity of knowledge, explained most of the variance in model outcomes. Dog density, especially when interactions with other parameters were included, explained some of the variance in whether rabies spread 120km, but dog demography (mean lifespan and mean replacement period) had minimal impact. These results provide a clear research direction if Australia is to improve its preparedness for rabies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

West Nile virus is globally wide-spread and causes significant disease in humans and animals. The evolution of West Nile virus Kunjin subtype in Australia (WNVKUN) was investigated using archival samples collected over a period of 50 years. Based on the pattern of fixed amino acid substitutions and time-stamped molecular clock analyses, a single long-term lineage (or topotype) was inferred. This implies that a bottleneck exists such that regional strains eventually die out and are replaced with strains from a single source. This was consistent with current hypotheses regarding the distribution of WNVKUN, whereby the virus is enzootic in northern Australia and is disseminated to southern states by water-birds or mosquitoes after flooding associated with above average rainfall. In addition, two previous amino acid changes associated with pathogenicity, an N-Y-S glycosylation motif in the envelope protein and a phenylalanine at amino acid 653 in the RNA polymerase, were both detected in all isolates collected since the 1980s. Changes primarily occurred due to stochastic drift. One fixed substitution each in NS3 and NS5, subtly changed the chemical environment of important functional groups, and may be involved in fine-tuning RNA synthesis. Understanding these evolutionary changes will help us to better understand events such as the emergence of the virulent strain in 2011. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]