Search

Background: Spatial modelling of STH and schistosomiasis epidemiology is now commonplace. Spatial epidemiological studies help inform decisions regarding the number of people at risk as well as the geographic areas that need to be targeted with mass drug administration; however, limited attention has been given to propagated uncertainties, their interpretation, and consequences for the mapped values. Using currently published literature on the spatial epidemiology of helminth infections we identified: (1) the main uncertainty sources, their definition and quantification and (2) how uncertainty is informative for STH programme managers and scientists working in this domain. Methodology/Principal Findings: We performed a systematic literature search using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) protocol. We searched Web of Knowledge and PubMed using a combination of uncertainty, geographic and disease terms. A total of 73 papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria for the systematic review. Only 9% of the studies did not address any element of uncertainty, while 91% of studies quantified uncertainty in the predicted morbidity indicators and 23% of studies mapped it. In addition, 57% of the studies quantified uncertainty in the regression coefficients but only 7% incorporated it in the regression response variable (morbidity indicator). Fifty percent of the studies discussed uncertainty in the covariates but did not quantify it. Uncertainty was mostly defined as precision, and quantified using credible intervals by means of Bayesian approaches. Conclusion/Significance: None of the studies considered adequately all sources of uncertainties. We highlighted the need for uncertainty in the morbidity indicator and predictor variable to be incorporated into the modelling framework. Study design and spatial support require further attention and uncertainty associated with Earth observation data should be quantified. Finally, more attention should be given to mapping and interpreting uncertainty, since they are relevant to inform decisions regarding the number of people at risk as well as the geographic areas that need to be targeted with mass drug administration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Targeted environmental and ecosystem management remain crucial in control of dengue. However, providing detailed environmental information on a large scale to effectively target dengue control efforts remains a challenge. An important piece of such information is the extent of the presence of potential dengue vector breeding sites, which consist primarily of open containers such as ceramic jars, buckets, old tires, and flowerpots. In this paper we present the design and implementation of a pipeline to detect outdoor open containers which constitute potential dengue vector breeding sites from geotagged images and to create highly detailed container density maps at unprecedented scale. We implement the approach using Google Street View images which have the advantage of broad coverage and of often being two to three years old which allows correlation analyses of container counts against historical data from manual surveys. Containers comprising eight of the most common breeding sites are detected in the images using convolutional neural network transfer learning. Over a test set of images the object recognition algorithm has an accuracy of 0.91 in terms of F-score. Container density counts are generated and displayed on a decision support dashboard. Analyses of the approach are carried out over three provinces in Thailand. The container counts obtained agree well with container counts from available manual surveys. Multi-variate linear regression relating densities of the eight container types to larval survey data shows good prediction of larval index values with an R-squared of 0.674. To delineate conditions under which the container density counts are indicative of larval counts, a number of factors affecting correlation with larval survey data are analyzed. We conclude that creation of container density maps from geotagged images is a promising approach to providing detailed risk maps at large scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Zika virus transmission dynamics in urban environments follow a complex spatiotemporal pattern that appears unpredictable and barely related to high mosquito density areas. In this context, human activity patterns likely have a major role in Zika transmission dynamics. This paper examines the effect of host variability in the amount of time spent outdoors on Zika epidemiology in an urban environment. Methodology/Principal findings: First, we performed a survey on time spent outdoors by residents of Miami-Dade County, Florida. Second, we analyzed both the survey and previously published national data on outdoors time in the U.S. to provide estimates of the distribution of the time spent outdoors. Third, we performed a computational modeling evaluation of Zika transmission dynamics, based on the time spent outdoors by each person. Our analysis reveals a strong heterogeneity of the host population in terms of time spent outdoors–data are well captured by skewed gamma distributions. Our model-based evaluation shows that in a heterogeneous population, Zika would cause a lower number of infections than in a more homogenous host population (up to 4-fold differences), but, at the same time, the epidemic would spread much faster. We estimated that in highly heterogeneous host populations the timing of the implementation of vector control measures is the major factor for limiting the number of Zika infections. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings highlight the need of considering host variability in exposure time for managing mosquito-borne infections and call for the revision of the triggers for vector control strategies, which should integrate mosquito density data and human outdoor activity patterns in specific areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This paper presents a new agent-based model (ABM) for investigating T. b. rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) disease dynamics, produced to aid a greater understanding of disease transmission, and essential for development of appropriate mitigation strategies. Methods: The ABM was developed to model rHAT incidence at a fine spatial scale along a 75 km transect in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia. The method offers a complementary approach to traditional compartmentalised modelling techniques, permitting incorporation of fine scale demographic data such as ethnicity, age and gender into the simulation. Results: Through identification of possible spatial, demographic and behavioural characteristics which may have differing implications for rHAT risk in the region, the ABM produced output that could not be readily generated by other techniques. On average there were 1.99 (S.E. 0.245) human infections and 1.83 (S.E. 0.183) cattle infections per 6 month period. The model output identified that the approximate incidence rate (per 1000 person-years) was lower amongst cattle owning households (0.079, S.E. 0.017), than those without cattle (0.134, S.E. 0.017). Immigrant tribes (e.g. Bemba I.R. = 0.353, S.E.0.155) and school-age children (e.g. 5–10 year old I.R. = 0.239, S.E. 0.041) were the most at-risk for acquiring infection. These findings have the potential to aid the targeting of future mitigation strategies. Conclusion: ABMs provide an alternative way of thinking about HAT and NTDs more generally, offering a solution to the investigation of local-scale questions, and which generate results that can be easily disseminated to those affected. The ABM can be used as a tool for scenario testing at an appropriate spatial scale to allow the design of logistically feasible mitigation strategies suggested by model output. This is of particular importance where resources are limited and management strategies are often pushed to the local scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Vector control remains the primary method to prevent dengue infections. Environmental interventions represent sustainable and safe methods as there are limited risks of environmental contamination and toxicity. The objective of this study is to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of the effectiveness of the following environmental methods for dengue vector control. Methodology/Principal findings: Following the PRISMA guidelines, a systematic literature search was conducted using the databases PubMed, EMBASE, LILACS, the Cochrane Library and Google Scholar. Quality assessment was done using the CONSORT 2010 checklist. For the meta-analysis the difference-in-differences (DID) and the difference-of-endlines (DOE) were calculated according to the Schmidt-Hunter method for the Breteau index (BI) and the pupae per person index (PPI). Nineteen studies were eligible for the systematic review, sixteen contributed data to the meta-analysis. The following methods were evaluated: (a) container covers with and without insecticides, (b) waste management and clean-up campaigns, and (c) elimination of breeding sites by rendering potential mosquito breeding sites unusable or by eliminating them. Study quality was highest for container covers with insecticides, followed by waste management without direct garbage collection and elimination of breeding places. Both, systematic review and meta-analysis, showed a weak effect of the interventions on larval populations, with no obvious differences between the results of each individual method. For the meta-analysis, both, container covers without insecticides (BI: DID -7.9, DOE -5) and waste management with direct garbage collection (BI: DID -8.83, DOE -6.2) achieved the strongest reductions for the BI, whereas for the PPI results were almost opposite, with container covers with insecticides (PPI: DID -0.83, DOE 0.09) and elimination of breeding places (PPI: DID -0.95, DOE -0.83) showing the strongest effects. Conclusions: Each of the investigated environmental methods showed some effectiveness in reducing larval and pupal densities of Aedes sp. mosquitoes. However, there is a need for more comparable high-quality studies at an adequate standard to strengthen this evidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Individual helminth infections are ubiquitous in the tropics; geographical overlaps in endemicity and epidemiological reports suggest areas endemic for multiple helminthiases are also burdened with high prevalences of intestinal protozoan infections, malaria, tuberculosis (TB), and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Despite this, pathogens tend to be studied in isolation, and there remains a need for a better understanding of the community ecology and health consequences of helminth polyparasitism to inform the design of effective parasite control programs. Methodology: We performed meta-analyses to (i) evaluate the commonality of polyparasitism for helminth-helminth, helminth-intestinal protozoa, helminth-malaria, helminth-TB, and helminth-HIV co-infections, (ii) assess the potential for interspecies interactions among helminth-helminth and helminth-intestinal protozoan infections, and (iii) determine the presence and magnitude of association between specific parasite pairs. Additionally, we conducted a review of reported health consequences of multiply-infected individuals compared to singly- or not multiply-infected individuals. Principal findings: We found that helminth-helminth and helminth-intestinal protozoan multiple infections were significantly more common than single infections, while individuals with malaria, TB, and HIV were more likely to be singly-infected with these infections than co-infected with at least one helminth. Most observed species density distributions significantly differed from the expected distributions, suggesting the potential presence of interspecies interactions. All significant associations between parasite pairs were positive in direction, irrespective of the combination of pathogens. Polyparasitized individuals largely exhibited lower hemoglobin levels and higher anemia prevalence, while the differences in growth-related variables were mostly statistically insignificant. Conclusions: Our findings confirm that helminth polyparasitism and co-infection with major diseases is common in the tropics. A multitude of factors acting at various hierarchical levels, such as interspecies interactions at the within-host infra-parasite community level and environmental variables at the higher host community level, could explain the observed positive associations between pathogens; there remains a need to develop new frameworks which can consider these multilevel factors to better understand the processes structuring parasite communities to accomplish their control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Schistosomiasis japonica is a zoonotic parasitic disease. After nearly 70 years of control efforts in China, Schistosomiasis transmission has been reduced to a much lower level. The absence or near absence of infections in humans or livestock, based on traditional fecal and serological tests, has made the targets and priorities of future control efforts difficult to determine. However, detection of schistosome cercariae in waters using sentinel mice could be an alternative way of identifying remaining foci of infection, or even serve as a tool for evaluation of control efficacy. This method has been employed in China over last forty years. We therefore performed a meta-analysis of the relevant research to investigate if infections in sentinel mice mirror the ongoing trend of schistosomiasis transmission in China. Methods: We conducted a meta-analysis of studies reporting infection rates of S. japonicum in sentinel mice in China before Sep 1, 2018 in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines. We retrieved all relative studies based on five databases (CNKI, WanFang, VIP, PubMed and Web of Science) and the reference lists of resulting articles. For each individual study, the infection rate in sentinel mice is presented together with its 95% confidence interval (CI). Point estimates of the overall infection rates and their 95% CIs were calculated. Subgroup analyses were performed according to study periods, seasons or regions. Results: We identified 90 articles, including 290 studies covering eight endemic provinces. The overall rate in sentinel mice was 12.31% (95% CI: 10.14–14.65%) from 1980 to 2018. The value of 3.66% (95% CI: 2.62–4.85%) estimated in 2004 to 2018 was significantly lower than in 1980 to 2003 (22.96%, 95% CI: 19.25–26.89%). The estimate was significantly higher in the middle and lower reaches than in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. The highest estimates were obtained in Hunan (30.11%, 95% CI: 25.64–34.77%) followed by Anhui (26.34%, 95% CI: 12.88–42.44%) and then Jiangxi (13.73%, 95% CI: 6.71–22.56%). Unlike the other provinces in the middle and lower reaches, no significant reduction was seen in Hubei after 2003. Even in Hubei two studies carried out after 2014 reported infections in sentinel mice, although no infected snails were reported across the province. Infections were most found in April (17.40%, 95% CI: 1.13–45.49%), July (24.98%, 95% CI: 15.64–35.62%) and October (17.08%, 95% CI 5.94–32.05%). High degrees of heterogeneity were observed. Conclusion: This meta-analysis provides a comprehensive analysis of schistosome infection in sentinel mice across China. The estimates largely mirror the ongoing trends of transmission in terms of periods and regions. Infections were most likely to occur in April, July and October. In areas where no infected snails were reported infections in sentinel mice were still observed. Due to the presence of snails and infected wildlife, detection of schistosomes in waters using such a highly sensitive method as the deployment of sentinel mice, remains of importance in schistosomiasis monitoring. We would suggest the current criteria for transmission interruption or elimination of schistosomiasis in China be adjusted by integrating the results of sentinel mice based surveys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Triatomine vectors transmit Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease in humans. Transmission to humans typically occurs when contaminated triatomine feces come in contact with the bite site or mucosal membranes. In the Southern Cone of South America, where the highest burden of disease exists, Triatoma infestans is the principal vector for T. cruzi. Recent studies of other vector-borne illnesses have shown that arthropod microbiota influences the ability of infectious agents to colonize the insect vector and transmit to the human host. This has garnered attention as a potential control strategy against T. cruzi, as vector control is the main tool of Chagas disease prevention. Here we characterized the microbiota in T. infestans feces of both wild-caught and laboratory-reared insects and examined the relationship between microbial composition and T. cruzi infection using highly sensitive high-throughput sequencing technology to sequence the V3-V4 region of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene on the MiSeq Illumina platform. We collected 59 wild (9 with T. cruzi infection) and 10 lab-reared T. infestans (4 with T. cruzi infection) from the endemic area of Arequipa, Perú. Wild T. infestans had greater hindgut bacterial diversity than laboratory-reared bugs. Microbiota of lab insects comprised a subset of those identified in their wild counterparts, with 96 of the total 124 genera also observed in laboratory-reared insects. Among wild insects, variation in bacterial composition was observed, but time and location of collection and development stage did not explain this variation. T. cruzi infection in lab insects did not affect α- or β-diversity; however, we did find that the β-diversity of wild insects differed if they were infected with T. cruzi and identified 10 specific taxa that had significantly different relative abundances in infected vs. uninfected wild T. infestans (Bosea, Mesorhizobium, Dietzia, and Cupriavidus were underrepresented in infected bugs; Sporosarcina, an unclassified genus of Porphyromonadaceae, Nestenrenkonia, Alkalibacterium, Peptoniphilus, Marinilactibacillus were overrepresented in infected bugs). Our findings suggest that T. cruzi infection is associated with the microbiota of T. infestans and that inferring the microbiota of wild T. infestans may not be possible through sampling of T. infestans reared in the insectary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To work towards reaching the WHO goal of eliminating soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections as a public health problem, the total number of children receiving anthelmintic drugs has strongly increased over the past few years. However, as drug pressure levels rise, the development of anthelmintic drug resistance (AR) is more and more likely to appear. Currently, any global surveillance system to monitor drug efficacy and the emergence of possible AR is lacking. Consequently, it remains unclear to what extent the efficacy of drugs may have dropped and whether AR is already present. The overall aim of this study is to recommend the best diagnostic methods to monitor drug efficacy and molecular markers to assess the emergence of AR in STH control programs. Methods: A series of drug efficacy trials will be performed in four STH endemic countries with varying drug pressure (Ethiopia and Brazil: low drug pressure, Lao PDR: moderate drug pressure and Tanzania: high drug pressure). These trials are designed to assess the efficacy of a single oral dose of 400 mg albendazole (ALB) against STH infections in school-aged children (SAC) by microscopic (duplicate Kato-Katz thick smear, Mini-FLOTAC and FECPAKG2) and molecular stool-based diagnostic methods (quantitative PCR (qPCR)). Data will be collected on the cost of the materials used, as well as the time required to prepare and examine stool samples for the different diagnostic methods. Following qPCR, DNA samples will also be submitted for pyrosequencing to assess the presence and prevalence of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the β-tubulin gene. These SNPs are known to be linked to AR in animal STHs. Discussion: The results obtained by these trials will provide robust evidence regarding the cost-efficiency and diagnostic performance of the different stool-based diagnostic methods for the assessment of drug efficacy in control programs. The assessment of associations between the frequency of SNPs in the β-tubulin gene and the history of drug pressure and drug efficacy will allow the validation of these SNPs as a marker for AR in human STHs. Trial registration: The trial was retrospectively registered the 7th of March 2018 on Clinicaltrials.gov (ID: ). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Schistosomiasis is a chronic parasitic trematode disease that affects over 240 million people worldwide. The Schistosoma lifecycle is complex, involving transmission via specific intermediate-host freshwater snails. Predictive mathematical models of Schistosoma transmission have often chosen to simplify or ignore the details of environmental human-snail interaction in their analyses. Schistosome transmission models now aim to provide better precision for policy planning of elimination of transmission. This heightens the importance of including the environmental complexity of vector-pathogen interaction in order to make more accurate projections. Methodology and principal findings: We propose a nonlinear snail force of infection (FOI) that takes into account an intermediate larval stage (miracidium) and snail biology. We focused, in particular, on the effects of snail force of infection (FOI) on the impact of mass drug administration (MDA) in human communities. The proposed (modified) model was compared to a conventional model in terms of their predictions. A longitudinal dataset generated in Kenya field studies was used for model calibration and validation. For each sample community, we calibrated modified and conventional model systems, then used them to model outcomes for a range of MDA regimens. In most cases, the modified model predicted more vigorous post-MDA rebound, with faster relapse to baseline levels of infection. The effect was pronounced in higher risk communities. When compared to observed data, only the modified system was able to successfully predict persistent rebound of Schistosoma infection. Conclusion and significance: The observed impact of varying location-specific snail inputs sheds light on the diverse MDA response patterns noted in operational research on schistosomiasis control, such as the recent SCORE project. Efficiency of human-to-snail transmission is likely to be much higher than predicted by standard models, which, in practice, will make local elimination by implementation of MDA alone highly unlikely, even over a multi-decade period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal clustering and socio-environmental factors associated with dengue fever (DF) incidence rates at street level in Guangzhou City, China. Methods: Spatiotemporal scan technique was applied to identify the high risk region of DF. Multiple regression model was used to identify the socio-environmental factors associated with DF infection. A Poisson regression model was employed to examine the spatiotemporal patterns in the spread of DF. Results: Spatial clusters of DF were primarily concentrated at the southwest part of Guangzhou City. Age group (65+ years) (Odd Ratio (OR) = 1.49, 95% Confidence Interval = 1.13 to 2.03), floating population (OR = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.15), low-education (OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.16) and non-agriculture (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.11) were associated with DF transmission. Poisson regression results indicated that changes in DF incidence rates were significantly associated with longitude (β = -5.08, P<0.01) and latitude (β = -1.99, P<0.01). Conclusions: The study demonstrated that social-environmental factors may play an important role in DF transmission in Guangzhou. As geographic range of notified DF has significantly expanded over recent years, an early warning systems based on spatiotemporal model with socio-environmental is urgently needed to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of dengue control and prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few animal models of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection have incorporated arthropod-borne transmission. Here, we establish an Aedes aegypti mosquito model of ZIKV infection of mice, and demonstrate altered vector competency among three strains, (Orlando, ORL, Ho Chi Minh, HCM, and Patilas, PAT). All strains acquired ZIKV in their midguts after a blood meal from infected mice, but ZIKV transmission only occurred in mice fed upon by HCM, and to a lesser extent PAT, but not ORL, mosquitoes. This defect in transmission from ORL or PAT mosquitoes was overcome by intrathoracic injection of ZIKV into mosquito. Genetic analysis revealed significant diversity among these strains, suggesting a genetic basis for differences in ability for mosquito strains to transmit ZIKV. The intrathoracic injection mosquito-mouse transmission model is critical to understanding the influence of mosquitoes on ZIKV transmission, infectivity and pathogenesis in the vertebrate host, and represents a natural transmission route for testing vaccines and therapeutics. (152 words) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing spread of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, in Europe and US raises public health concern due to the species competence to transmit several exotic human arboviruses, among which dengue, chikungunya and Zika, and urges the development of suitable modeling approach to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of the mosquito. Here we developed a dynamical species distribution modeling approach forecasting Ae. albopictus eggs abundance at high spatial (0.01 degree WGS84) and temporal (weekly) resolution over 10 Balkan countries, using temperature times series of Modis data products and altitude as input predictors. The model was satisfactorily calibrated and validated over Albania based observed eggs abundance data weekly monitored during three years. For a given week of the year, eggs abundance was mainly predicted by the number of eggs and the mean temperature recorded in the preceding weeks. That is, results are in agreement with the biological cycle of the mosquito, reflecting the effect temperature on eggs spawning, maturation and hatching. The model, seeded by initial egg values derived from a second model, was then used to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of eggs abundance over the selected Balkan countries, weekly in 2011, 2012 and 2013. The present study is a baseline to develop an easy-handling forecasting model able to provide information useful for promoting active surveillance and possibly prevention of Ae. albopictus colonization in presently non-infested areas in the Balkans as well as in other temperate regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human excreta is a low cost source of nutrients vital to plant growth, but also a source of pathogens transmissible to people and animals. We investigated the cost-savings and infection risk of soil transmitted helminths (STHs) in four scenarios where farmers used either inorganic fertilizer or fresh/composted human excreta supplemented by inorganic fertilizer to meet the nutrient requirements of rice paddies in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. Our study included two main components: 1) a risk estimate of STH infection for farmers who handle fresh excreta, determined by systematic review and meta-analysis; and 2) a cost estimate of fertilizing rice paddies, determined by nutrient assessment of excreta, a retailer survey of inorganic fertilizer costs, and a literature review to identify region-specific inputs. Our findings suggest that farmers who reuse fresh excreta are 1.24 (95% CI: 1.13–1.37, p-value<0.001) times more likely to be infected with any STH than those who do not handle excreta or who compost appropriately, and that risk varies by STH type (Ascaris lumbricoides RR = 1.17, 95% CI = 0.87–1.58, p-value = 0.29; Hookworm RR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.50–2.06, p-value = 0.96; Trichuris trichiura RR = 1.38, 95% CI = 0.79–2.42, p-value = 0.26). Average cost-savings were highest for farmers using fresh excreta (847,000 VND) followed by those who composted for 6 months as recommended by the WHO (312,000 VND) and those who composted for a shorter time (5 months) with lime supplementation (37,000 VND/yr); however, this study did not assess healthcare costs of treating acute or chronic STH infections in the target group. Our study provides evidence that farmers in the Red River Delta are able to use a renewable and locally available resource to their economic advantage, while minimizing the risk of STH infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Insecticide spraying efficiently controls house infestation by triatomine bugs, the vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi. The strategy, however, is ineffective against sylvatic triatomines, which can transmit Chagas disease by invading (without colonizing) man-made structures. Despite growing awareness of the relevance of these transmission dynamics, the drivers of house invasion by sylvatic triatomines remain poorly understood. Methods/Findings: About 12,000 sylvatic triatomines were caught during routine surveillance in houses of Tocantins state, Brazil, in 2005–2013. Using negative binomial regression, information-theoretic model evaluation/averaging, and external model validation, we investigated the effects of regional (Amazon/Cerrado), landscape (preservation/disturbance), and climate covariates (temperature, rainfall) on the municipality-aggregated numbers of house-invading Rhodnius pictipes, R. robustus, R. neglectus, and Panstrongylus geniculatus. House invasion by R. pictipes and R. robustus was overall more frequent in the Amazon biome, tended to increase in municipalities with more well-preserved land, and decreased in rainier municipalities. Across species, invasion decreased with higher landscape-disturbance levels and in hotter-day municipalities. Invasion by R. neglectus and P. geniculatus increased somewhat with more land at intermediate disturbance and peaked in average-rainfall municipalities. Temperature effects were more pronounced on P. geniculatus than on Rhodnius spp. Conclusions: We report widespread, frequent house invasion by sylvatic triatomines in the Amazon–Cerrado transition. Our analyses indicate that readily available environmental metrics may help predict the risk of contact between sylvatic triatomines and humans at coarse geographic scales, and hint at specific hypotheses about climate and deforestation effects on those vectors–with some taxon-specific responses and some seemingly general trends. Thus, our focal species appear to be quite sensitive to higher temperatures, and might be less common in more heavily-disturbed than in better-preserved environments. This study illustrates, in sum, how entomological routine-surveillance data can be efficiently used for Chagas disease risk prediction and stratification when house-colonizing vectors are absent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tungiasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by female sand fleas (Tunga penetrans) embedded in the skin. The disease is associated with important morbidity. Tungiasis is endemic along the Coast of Kenya with a prevalence ranging from 11% to 50% in school-age children. Hitherto, studies on epidemiological characteristics of tungiasis in Africa are scanty. Methods: In a cross-sectional study 1,086 individuals from 233 households in eight villages located in Kakuyuni and Malanga Sub-locations, Kilifi County, on the Kenyan Coast, were investigated. Study participants were examined systematically and the presence and severity of tungiasis were determined using standard methods. Demographic, socio-economic, environmental and behavioral risk factors of tungiasis were assessed using a structured questionnaire. Data were analyzed using bivariate and multivariate regression analysis. Results: The overall prevalence of tungiasis was 25.0% (95% CI 22.4–27.5%). Age-specific prevalence followed an S-shaped curve, peaking in the under-15 year old group. In 42.5% of the households at least one individual had tungiasis. 15.1% of patients were severely infected (≥ 30 lesions). In the bivariate analysis no specific animal species was identified as a risk factor for tungiasis. Multivariate analysis showed that the occurrence of tungiasis was related to living in a house with poor construction characteristics, such as mud walls (OR 3.35; 95% CI 1.71–6.58), sleeping directly on the floor (OR 1.68; 95% CI 1.03–2.74), the number of people per sleeping room (OR = 1.77; 95% CI 1.07–2.93) and washing the body without soap (OR = 7.36; 95% CI 3.08–17.62). The odds of having severe tungiasis were high in males (OR 2.29; 95% CI 1.18–44.6) and were very high when only mud puddles were available as a water source and lack of water permitted washing only once a day (OR 25.48 (95% CI 3.50–185.67) and OR 2.23 (95% CI 1.11–4.51), respectively). Conclusions: The results of this study show that in rural Kenya characteristics of poverty determine the occurrence and the severity of tungiasis. Intra-domiciliary transmission seems to occur regularly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Esperanza Window Trap (EWT) baited with CO2 and human sweat compounds is attractive to Simulium ochraceum s.l., the primary vector of Onchocerca volvulus in the historically largest endemic foci in México and Guatemala. Methodology/Principal findings: The ability of the EWT to locally reduce numbers of questing S. ochraceum s.l. was evaluated in two formerly onchocerciasis endemic communities in Southern México. At each community, two EWTs were placed in or near a school or household and flies were collected sequentially for a total of 10 days. Black fly collections were then carried out for an additional 10 days in the absence of the EWTs. Flies were also collected outside the dwellings to control for variations in the local fly populations. When the EWTs were present, there was a significant reduction in the human biting rate at both the household and school locations at collection sites, with a greater effect observed in the schools. Conclusions/Significance: These results indicate that the EWTs not only have potential as a black fly monitoring tool but may be used for reducing personal exposure to fly bites in Mesoamerica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis was declared eradicable by the International Task Force for Disease Eradication in 1993, but remains a neglected zoonosis. To assist in the attempt to regionally eliminate this parasite, we developed cystiSim, an agent-based model for T. solium transmission and control. The model was developed in R and available as an R package (). cystiSim was adapted to an observed setting using field data from Tanzania, but adaptable to other settings if necessary. The model description adheres to the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol and consists of two entities—pigs and humans. Pigs acquire cysticercosis through the environment or by direct contact with a tapeworm carrier's faeces. Humans acquire taeniosis from slaughtered pigs proportional to their infection intensity. The model allows for evaluation of three interventions measures or combinations hereof: treatment of humans, treatment of pigs, and pig vaccination, and allows for customary coverage and efficacy settings. cystiSim is the first agent-based transmission model for T. solium and suggests that control using a strategy consisting of an intervention only targeting the porcine host is possible, but that coverage and efficacy must be high if elimination is the ultimate goal. Good coverage of the intervention is important, but can be compensated for by including an additional intervention targeting the human host. cystiSim shows that the scenarios combining interventions in both hosts, mass drug administration to humans, and vaccination and treatment of pigs, have a high probability of success if coverage of 75% can be maintained over at least a four year period. In comparison with an existing mathematical model for T. solium transmission, cystiSim also includes parasite maturation, host immunity, and environmental contamination. Adding these biological parameters to the model resulted in new insights in the potential effect of intervention measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lymphatic Filariasis and Onchocerciasis (river blindness) constitute pressing public health issues in tropical regions. Global elimination programs, involving mass drug administration (MDA), have been launched by the World Health Organisation. Although the drugs used are generally well tolerated, individuals who are highly co-infected with Loa loa are at risk of experiencing serious adverse events. Highly infected individuals are more likely to be found in communities with high prevalence. An understanding of the relationship between individual infection and population-level prevalence can therefore inform decisions on whether MDA can be safely administered in an endemic community. Based on Loa loa infection intensity data from individuals in Cameroon, the Republic of the Congo and the Democratic Republic of the Congo we develop a statistical model for the distribution of infection levels in communities. We then use this model to make predictive inferences regarding the proportion of individuals whose parasite count exceeds policy-relevant levels. In particular we show how to exploit the positive correlation between community-level prevalence and intensity of infection in order to predict the proportion of highly infected individuals in a community given only prevalence data from the community in question. The resulting prediction intervals are not substantially wider, and in some cases narrower, than the corresponding binomial confidence intervals obtained from data that include measurements of individual infection levels. Therefore the model developed here facilitates the estimation of the proportion of individuals highly infected with Loa loa using only estimated community level prevalence. It can be used to assess the risk of rolling out MDA in a specific community, or to guide policy decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: An explosive outbreak of dengue fever occurred in Guangdong Province, China in 2014. A community-based integrated intervention was applied to control this outbreak in the capital city Guangzhou, where dengue epidemic was mainly caused by imported cases. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used a time series generalized additive model based on meteorological factors to assess the effectiveness of this intervention. The results showed that there was significant reduction in mosquito density following the intervention, and there was a 70.47% (95% confidence interval: 66.07%, 74.88%) reduction in the reported dengue cases compared with the predicted cases after 12 days since the beginning of the intervention, we estimated that a total of 23,302 dengue cases were prevented. Conclusions: This study suggests that an integrated dengue intervention program has significant effects to control a dengue outbreak in areas where dengue epidemic was mainly caused by imported dengue cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Schistosomiasis control mainly relies on preventive chemotherapy with praziquantel (PZQ) distributed through mass drug administration. With a target of 260 million treatments yearly, reliably assessing and monitoring efficacy is all-important. Recommendations for treatment and control of schistosomiasis are supported by systematic reviews and meta-analyses of aggregated data, which however also point to limitations due to heterogeneity in trial design, analyses and reporting. Some such limitations could be corrected through access to individual participant-level data (IPD), which facilitates standardised analyses. Methodology: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify antischistosomal drug efficacy studies performed since 2000; including electronic searches of the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group specialised register and the Cochrane Library, PubMed, CENTRAL and Embase; complemented with a manual search for articles listed in past reviews. Antischistosomal treatment studies with assessment of outcome within 60 days post-treatment were eligible. Meta-data, i.e. study-level characteristics (Schistosoma species, number of patients, drug administered, country, etc.) and efficacy parameters were extracted from published documents to evaluate the scope of an individual-level data sharing platform. Principal findings: Out of 914 documents screened, 90 studies from 26 countries were included, enrolling 20,517 participants infected with Schistosoma spp. and treated with different PZQ regimens or other drugs. Methodologies varied in terms of diagnostic approaches (number of samples and test repeats), time of outcome assessment, and outcome measure (cure rate or egg reduction rate, as an arithmetic or geometric mean), making direct comparison of published data difficult. Conclusions: This review describes the landscape of schistosomiasis clinical research. The volume of data and the methodological and reporting heterogeneity identified all indicate that there is scope for an individual participant-level database, to allow for standardised analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the Sudan, Schistosoma mansoni infections are a major cause of morbidity in school-aged children and infection rates are associated with available clean water sources. During infection, immune responses pass through a Th1 followed by Th2 and Treg phases and patterns can relate to different stages of infection or immunity. Methodology: This retrospective study evaluated immunoepidemiological aspects in 234 individuals (range 4–85 years old) from Kassala and Khartoum states in 2011. Systemic immune profiles (cytokines and immunoglobulins) and epidemiological parameters were surveyed in n = 110 persons presenting patent S. mansoni infections (egg+), n = 63 individuals positive for S. mansoni via PCR in sera but egg negative (SmPCR+) and n = 61 people who were infection-free (Sm uninf). Immunoepidemiological findings were further investigated using two binary multivariable regression analysis. Principal Findings: Nearly all egg+ individuals had no access to latrines and over 90% obtained water via the canal stemming from the Atbara River. With regards to age, infection and an egg+ status was linked to young and adolescent groups. In terms of immunology, S. mansoni infection per se was strongly associated with increased SEA-specific IgG4 but not IgE levels. IL-6, IL-13 and IL-10 were significantly elevated in patently-infected individuals and positively correlated with egg load. In contrast, IL-2 and IL-1β were significantly lower in SmPCR+ individuals when compared to Sm uninf and egg+ groups which was further confirmed during multivariate regression analysis. Conclusions/Significance: Schistosomiasis remains an important public health problem in the Sudan with a high number of patent individuals. In addition, SmPCR diagnostics revealed another cohort of infected individuals with a unique immunological profile and provides an avenue for future studies on non-patent infection states. Future studies should investigate the downstream signalling pathways/mechanisms of IL-2 and IL-1β as potential diagnostic markers in order to distinguish patent from non-patent individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An estimated 600 million people are affected by the helminth disease schistosomiasis caused by parasites of the genus Schistosoma. There is currently only one drug recommended for treating schistosomiasis, praziquantel (PZQ), which is effective against adult worms but not against the juvenile stage. In an attempt to identify improved drugs for treating the disease, we have carried out high throughput screening of a number of small molecule libraries with the aim of identifying lead compounds with balanced activity against all life stages of Schistosoma. A total of almost 300,000 compounds were screened using a high throughput assay based on motility of worm larvae and image analysis of assay plates. Hits were screened against juvenile and adult worms to identify broadly active compounds and against a mammalian cell line to assess cytotoxicity. A number of compounds were identified as promising leads for further chemical optimization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Helminth infections affect more than a third of the world’s population. Despite very broad phylogenetic differences among helminth parasite species, a systemic Th2 host immune response is typically associated with long-term helminth infections, also known as the “helminth effect”. Many investigations have been carried out to study host gene expression profiles during helminth infections. The objective of this study is to determine if there is a common transcriptomic signature characteristic of the helminth effect across multiple helminth species and tissue types. To this end, we performed a comprehensive meta-analysis of publicly available gene expression datasets. After data processing and adjusting for study-specific effects, we identified ~700 differentially expressed genes that are changed consistently during helminth infections. Functional enrichment analyses indicate that upregulated genes are predominantly involved in various immune functions, including immunomodulation, immune signaling, inflammation, pathogen recognition and antigen presentation. Down-regulated genes are mainly involved in metabolic process, with only a few of them are involved in immune regulation. This common immune gene signature confirms previous observations and indicates that the helminth effect is robust across different parasite species as well as host tissue types. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first comprehensive meta-analysis of host transcriptome profiles during helminth infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Estimating the reduction in levels of infection during implementation of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control programmes is important to measure their performance and to plan interventions. Markov modelling techniques have been used with some success to predict changes in STH prevalence following treatment in Viet Nam. The model is stationary and to date, the prediction has been obtained by calculating the transition probabilities between the different classes of intensity following the first year of drug distribution and assuming that these remain constant in subsequent years. However, to run this model longitudinal parasitological data (including intensity of infection) are required for two consecutive years from at least 200 individuals. Since this amount of data is not often available from STH control programmes, the possible application of the model in control programme is limited. The present study aimed to address this issue by adapting the existing Markov model to allow its application when a more limited amount of data is available and to test the predictive capacities of these simplified models. Method: We analysed data from field studies conducted with different combination of three parameters: (i) the frequency of drug administration; (ii) the drug distributed; and (iii) the target treatment population (entire population or school-aged children only). This analysis allowed us to define 10 sets of standard transition probabilities to be used to predict prevalence changes when only baseline data are available (simplified model 1). We also formulated three equations (one for each STH parasite) to calculate the predicted prevalence of the different classes of intensity from the total prevalence. These equations allowed us to design a simplified model (SM2) to obtain predictions when the classes of intensity at baseline were not known. To evaluate the performance of the simplified models, we collected data from the scientific literature on changes in STH prevalence during the implementation of 26 control programmes in 16 countries. Using the baseline data observed, we applied the simplified models and predicted the onward prevalence of STH infection at each time-point for which programme data were available. We then compared the output from the model with the observed data from the programme. Results: The comparison between the model-predicted prevalence and the observed values demonstrated a good accuracy of the predictions. In 77% of cases the original model predicted a prevalence within five absolute percentage points from the observed figure, for the simplified model one in 69% of cases and for the simplified model two in 60% of cases. We consider that the STH Markov model described here could be an important tool for programme managers to monitor the progress of their control programmes and to select the appropriate intervention. We also developed, and made freely available online, a software tool to enable the use of the STH Markov model by personnel with limited knowledge of mathematical models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although a vaccine could be available as early as 2016, vector control remains the primary approach used to prevent dengue, the most common and widespread arbovirus of humans worldwide. We reviewed the evidence for effectiveness of vector control methods in reducing its transmission. Methodology/Principal Findings: Studies of any design published since 1980 were included if they evaluated method(s) targeting Aedes aegypti or Ae. albopictus for at least 3 months. Primary outcome was dengue incidence. Following Cochrane and PRISMA Group guidelines, database searches yielded 960 reports, and 41 were eligible for inclusion, with 19 providing data for meta-analysis. Study duration ranged from 5 months to 10 years. Studies evaluating multiple tools/approaches (23 records) were more common than single methods, while environmental management was the most common method (19 studies). Only 9/41 reports were randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Two out of 19 studies evaluating dengue incidence were RCTs, and neither reported any statistically significant impact. No RCTs evaluated effectiveness of insecticide space-spraying (fogging) against dengue. Based on meta-analyses, house screening significantly reduced dengue risk, OR 0.22 (95% CI 0.05–0.93, p = 0.04), as did combining community-based environmental management and water container covers, OR 0.22 (95% CI 0.15–0.32, p<0.0001). Indoor residual spraying (IRS) did not impact significantly on infection risk (OR 0.67; 95% CI 0.22–2.11; p = 0.50). Skin repellents, insecticide-treated bed nets or traps had no effect (p>0.5), but insecticide aerosols (OR 2.03; 95% CI 1.44–2.86) and mosquito coils (OR 1.44; 95% CI 1.09–1.91) were associated with higher dengue risk (p = 0.01). Although 23/41 studies examined the impact of insecticide-based tools, only 9 evaluated the insecticide susceptibility status of the target vector population during the study. Conclusions/Significance: This review and meta-analysis demonstrate the remarkable paucity of reliable evidence for the effectiveness of any dengue vector control method. Standardised studies of higher quality to evaluate and compare methods must be prioritised to optimise cost-effective dengue prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal-long larvicide treatments and/or outdoor space-spray applications of insecticides are frequently applied to reduce Aedes albopictus nuisance in urban areas of temperate regions, where the species has become a permanent pest affecting people’s quality of life and health. However, assessments of the effectiveness of sequential interventions is a difficult task, as it requires to take into account the cumulative and combined effect of multiple treatments, as well as the mosquito seasonal dynamics (rather than mosquito abundance before and after single treatments). We here present the results of the effectiveness assessment of a seasonal-long calendar-based control intervention integrating larvicide treatments of street catch basins and night-time adulticide ground spraying in the main University hospital in Rome (Italy). Cage-experiments and an intensive monitoring of wild mosquito abundance in treated and untreated sites were carried out along an entire season. Sticky traps were used to monitor adult abundance and site-specific eco-climatic variations (by recording water left over in each trap), in order to disentangle the effect of insecticide treatments from eco-climatic drivers on mosquito seasonal dynamics. Despite the apparent limited impact of single adulticide sprayings assessed based on mortality in caged and wild mosquitoes, the results of the temporal analysis showed that mosquito seasonal patterns were initially comparable in the two sites, diverged in the absence of diverging eco-climatic conditions and remained stable afterwards. This allowed to attribute the lack of the expected Ae. albopictus population expansion in the treated site to the combined effect of multiple adulticide sprayings and larvicide treatments carried out during the whole season. The approach proposed was proved to be successful to assess effects of seasonal-long control treatments on adult mosquito population dynamics and could represent a valuable instrument to assess the effectiveness of other control interventions, to evaluate their actual cost-benefits and to possibly minimize space-spraying applications to reduce mosquito nuisance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dengue is a re-emerging infectious disease of humans, rapidly growing from endemic areas to dengue-free regions due to favorable conditions. In recent decades, Guangzhou has again suffered from several big outbreaks of dengue; as have its neighboring cities. This study aims to examine the impact of dengue epidemics in Guangzhou, China, and to develop a predictive model for Zhongshan based on local weather conditions and Guangzhou dengue surveillance information. Methods: We obtained weekly dengue case data from 1st January, 2005 to 31st December, 2014 for Guangzhou and Zhongshan city from the Chinese National Disease Surveillance Reporting System. Meteorological data was collected from the Zhongshan Weather Bureau and demographic data was collected from the Zhongshan Statistical Bureau. A negative binomial regression model with a log link function was used to analyze the relationship between weekly dengue cases in Guangzhou and Zhongshan, controlling for meteorological factors. Cross-correlation functions were applied to identify the time lags of the effect of each weather factor on weekly dengue cases. Models were validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and k-fold cross-validation. Results: Our results showed that weekly dengue cases in Zhongshan were significantly associated with dengue cases in Guangzhou after the treatment of a 5 weeks prior moving average (Relative Risk (RR) = 2.016, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.845–2.203), controlling for weather factors including minimum temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall. ROC curve analysis indicated our forecasting model performed well at different prediction thresholds, with 0.969 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for a threshold of 3 cases per week, 0.957 AUC for a threshold of 2 cases per week, and 0.938 AUC for a threshold of 1 case per week. Models established during k-fold cross-validation also had considerable AUC (average 0.938–0.967). The sensitivity and specificity obtained from k-fold cross-validation was 78.83% and 92.48% respectively, with a forecasting threshold of 3 cases per week; 91.17% and 91.39%, with a threshold of 2 cases; and 85.16% and 87.25% with a threshold of 1 case. The out-of-sample prediction for the epidemics in 2014 also showed satisfactory performance. Conclusion: Our study findings suggest that the occurrence of dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou could impact dengue outbreaks in Zhongshan under suitable weather conditions. Future studies should focus on developing integrated early warning systems for dengue transmission including local weather and human movement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are one of the main interventions used for malaria control. However, these nets may also be effective against other vector borne diseases (VBDs). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the efficacy of ITNs, insecticide-treated curtains (ITCs) and insecticide-treated house screening (ITS) against Chagas disease, cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis, dengue, human African trypanosomiasis, Japanese encephalitis, lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis. Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS and Tropical Disease Bulletin databases were searched using intervention, vector- and disease-specific search terms. Cluster or individually randomised controlled trials, non-randomised trials with pre- and post-intervention data and rotational design studies were included. Analysis assessed the efficacy of ITNs, ITCs or ITS versus no intervention. Meta-analysis of clinical data was performed and percentage reduction in vector density calculated. Results: Twenty-one studies were identified which met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of clinical data could only be performed for four cutaneous leishmaniasis studies which together showed a protective efficacy of ITNs of 77% (95%CI: 39%–91%). Studies of ITC and ITS against cutaneous leishmaniasis also reported significant reductions in disease incidence. Single studies reported a high protective efficacy of ITS against dengue and ITNs against Japanese encephalitis. No studies of Chagas disease, human African trypanosomiasis or onchocerciasis were identified. Conclusion: There are likely to be considerable collateral benefits of ITN roll out on cutaneous leishmaniasis where this disease is co-endemic with malaria. Due to the low number of studies identified, issues with reporting of entomological outcomes, and few studies reporting clinical outcomes, it is difficult to make strong conclusions on the effect of ITNs, ITCs or ITS on other VBDs and therefore further studies be conducted. Nonetheless, it is clear that insecticide-treated materials such as ITNs have the potential to reduce pathogen transmission and morbidity from VBDs where vectors enter houses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]