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Background: Excellent adherence to tuberculosis (TB) treatment is critical to cure TB and avoid the emergence of resistance. Wirelessly observed therapy (WOT) is a novel patient self-management system consisting of an edible ingestion sensor (IS), external wearable patch, and paired mobile device that can detect and digitally record medication ingestions. Our study determined the accuracy of ingestion detection in clinical and home settings using WOT and subsequently compared, in a randomized control trial (RCT), confirmed daily adherence to medication in persons using WOT or directly observed therapy (DOT) during TB treatment.Methods and Findings: We evaluated WOT in persons with active Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex disease using IS-enabled combination isoniazid 150 mg/rifampin 300 mg (IS-Rifamate). Seventy-seven participants with drug-susceptible TB in the continuation phase of treatment, prescribed daily isoniazid 300 mg and rifampin 600 mg, used IS-Rifamate. The primary endpoints of the trial were determination of the positive detection accuracy (PDA) of WOT, defined as the percentage of ingestions detected by WOT administered under direct observation, and subsequently the proportion of prescribed doses confirmed by WOT compared to DOT. Initially participants received DOT and WOT simultaneously for 2-3 weeks to allow calculation of WOT PDA, and the 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated using the bootstrap method with 10,000 samples. Sixty-one participants subsequently participated in an RCT to compare the proportion of prescribed doses confirmed by WOT and DOT. Participants were randomized 2:1 to receive WOT or maximal in-person DOT. In the WOT arm, if ingestions were not remotely confirmed, the participant was contacted within 24 hours by text or cell phone to provide support. The number of doses confirmed was collected, and nonparametric methods were used for group and individual comparisons to estimate the proportions of confirmed doses in each randomized arm with 95% CIs. Sensitivity analyses, not prespecified in the trial registration, were also performed, removing all nonworking (weekend and public holiday) and held-dose days. Participants, recruited from San Diego (SD) and Orange County (OC) Divisions of TB Control and Refugee Health, were 43.1 (range 18-80) years old, 57% male, 42% Asian, and 39% white with 49% Hispanic ethnicity. The PDA of WOT was 99.3% (CI 98.1; 100). Intent-to-treat (ITT) analysis within the RCT showed WOT confirmed 93% versus 63% DOT (p < 0.001) of daily doses prescribed. Secondary analysis removing all nonworking days (weekends and public holidays) and held doses from each arm showed WOT confirmed 95.6% versus 92.7% (p = 0.31); WOT was non-inferior to DOT (difference 2.8% CI [-1.8%, 9.1%]). One hundred percent of participants preferred using WOT. WOT associated adverse events were <10%, consisting of minor skin rash and pruritus associated with the patch. WOT provided longitudinal digital reporting in near real time, supporting patient self-management and allowing rapid remote identification of those who needed more support to maintain adherence. This study was conducted during the continuation phase of TB treatment, limiting its generalizability to the entire TB treatment course.Conclusions: In terms of accuracy, WOT was equivalent to DOT. WOT was superior to DOT in supporting confirmed daily adherence to TB medications during the continuation phase of TB treatment and was overwhelmingly preferred by participants. WOT should be tested in high-burden TB settings, where it may substantially support low- and middle-income country (LMIC) TB programs.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01960257. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is recommended for uncomplicated Plasmodium vivax malaria in areas of emerging chloroquine resistance. We undertook a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to compare the efficacies of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) with or without primaquine (PQ) on the risk of recurrent P. vivax.Methods and Findings: Clinical efficacy studies of uncomplicated P. vivax treated with DP or AL and published between January 1, 2000, and January 31, 2018, were identified by conducting a systematic review registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO): CRD42016053310. Investigators of eligible studies were invited to contribute individual patient data that were pooled using standardised methodology. The effect of mg/kg dose of piperaquine/lumefantrine, ACT administered, and PQ on the rate of P. vivax recurrence between days 7 and 42 after starting treatment were investigated by Cox regression analyses according to an a priori analysis plan. Secondary outcomes were the risk of recurrence assessed on days 28 and 63. Nineteen studies enrolling 2,017 patients were included in the analysis. The risk of recurrent P. vivax at day 42 was significantly higher in the 384 patients treated with AL alone (44.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 38.7-49.8) compared with the 812 patients treated with DP alone (9.3%, 95% CI 7.1-12.2): adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 12.63 (95% CI 6.40-24.92), p < 0.001. The rates of recurrence assessed at days 42 and 63 were associated inversely with the dose of piperaquine: AHRs (95% CI) for every 5-mg/kg increase 0.63 (0.48-0.84), p = 0.0013 and 0.83 (0.73-0.94), p = 0.0033, respectively. The dose of lumefantrine was not significantly associated with the rate of recurrence (1.07 for every 5-mg/kg increase, 95% CI 0.99-1.16, p = 0.0869). In a post hoc analysis, in patients with symptomatic recurrence after AL, the mean haemoglobin increased 0.13 g/dL (95% CI 0.01-0.26) for every 5 days that recurrence was delayed, p = 0.0407. Coadministration of PQ reduced substantially the rate of recurrence assessed at day 42 after AL (AHR = 0.20, 95% CI 0.10-0.41, p < 0.001) and at day 63 after DP (AHR = 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.70, p = 0.0233). Results were limited by follow-up of patients to 63 days or less and nonrandomised treatment groups.Conclusions: In this study, we observed the risk of P. vivax recurrence at day 42 to be significantly lower following treatment with DP compared with AL, reflecting the longer period of post-treatment prophylaxis; this risk was reduced substantially by coadministration with PQ. We found that delaying P. vivax recurrence was associated with a small but significant improvement in haemoglobin. These results highlight the benefits of PQ radical cure and also the provision of blood-stage antimalarial agents with prolonged post-treatment prophylaxis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The inflammatory contribution to type 2 diabetes (T2D) has suggested new therapeutic targets using biologic drugs designed for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). On this basis, we aimed at investigating whether interleukin-1 (IL-1) inhibition with anakinra, a recombinant human IL-1 receptor antagonist, could improve both glycaemic and inflammatory parameters in participants with RA and T2D compared with tumour necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors (TNFis).Methods and Findings: This study, designed as a multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial, enrolled participants, followed up for 6 months, with RA and T2D in 12 Italian rheumatologic units between 2013 and 2016. Participants were randomised to anakinra or to a TNFi (i.e., adalimumab, certolizumab pegol, etanercept, infliximab, or golimumab), and the primary end point was the change in percentage of glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c%) (EudraCT: 2012-005370-62 ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT02236481). In total, 41 participants with RA and T2D were randomised, and 39 eligible participants were treated (age 62.72 ± 9.97 years, 74.4% female sex). The majority of participants had seropositive RA disease (rheumatoid factor and/or anticyclic citrullinated peptide antibody [ACPA] 70.2%) with active disease (Disease Activity Score-28 [DAS28]: 5.54 ± 1.03; C-reactive protein 11.84 ± 9.67 mg/L, respectively). All participants had T2D (HbA1c%: 7.77 ± 0.70, fasting plasma glucose: 139.13 ± 42.17 mg). When all the enrolled participants reached 6 months of follow-up, the important crude difference in the main end point, confirmed by an unplanned ad interim analysis showing the significant effects of anakinra, which were not observed in the other group, led to the study being stopped for early benefit. Participants in the anakinra group had a significant reduction of HbA1c%, in an unadjusted linear mixed model, after 3 months (β: -0.85, p < 0.001, 95% CI -1.28 to -0.42) and 6 months (β: -1.05, p < 0.001, 95% CI -1.50 to -0.59). Similar results were observed adjusting the model for relevant RA and T2D clinical confounders (male sex, age, ACPA positivity, use of corticosteroids, RA duration, T2D duration, use of oral antidiabetic drug, body mass index [BMI]) after 3 months (β: -1.04, p < 0.001, 95% CI -1.52 to -0.55) and 6 months (β: -1.24, p < 0.001, 95% CI -1.75 to -0.72). Participants in the TNFi group had a nonsignificant slight decrease of HbA1c%. Assuming the success threshold to be HbA1c% ≤ 7, we considered an absolute risk reduction (ARR) = 0.42 (experimental event rate = 0.54, control event rate = 0.12); thus, we estimated, rounding up, a number needed to treat (NNT) = 3. Concerning RA, a progressive reduction of disease activity was observed in both groups. No severe adverse events, hypoglycaemic episodes, or deaths were observed. Urticarial lesions at the injection site led to discontinuation in 4 (18%) anakinra-treated participants. Additionally, we observed nonsevere infections, including influenza, nasopharyngitis, upper respiratory tract infection, urinary tract infection, and diarrhoea in both groups. Our study has some limitations, including open-label design and previously unplanned ad interim analysis, small size, lack of some laboratory evaluations, and ongoing use of other drugs.Conclusions: In this study, we observed an apparent benefit of IL-1 inhibition in participants with RA and T2D, reaching the therapeutic targets of both diseases. Our results suggest the concept that IL-1 inhibition may be considered a targeted treatment for RA and T2D.Trial Registration: The trial is registered with EU Clinical Trials Register, EudraCT Number: 2012-005370-62 and with ClinicalTrial.gov, number NCT02236481. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Christian Lienhardt and colleagues discuss the importance of communication and coordination between regulators, researchers, and policy makers to ensure tuberculosis trials provide high-quality evidence for policy decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amita Gupta and colleagues discuss priorities in clinical research aimed at improving tuberculosis prevention and treatment in pregnant women, children, and people with HIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Some experts have proposed combating rising drug prices by promoting brand-brand competition, a situation that is supposed to arise when multiple US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved brand-name products in the same class are indicated for the same condition. However, numerous reports exist of price increases following the introduction of brand-name competition, suggesting that it may not be effective. We performed a systematic literature review of the peer-reviewed health policy and economics literature to better understand the interplay between new drug entry and intraclass drug prices.Methods and Findings: We searched PubMed and EconLit for original studies on brand-brand competition in the US market published in English between January 1990 and April 2019. We performed a qualitative synthesis of each study's data, recording its primary objective, methodology, and results. We found 10 empirical investigations, with 1 study each on antihypertensives, anti-infectives, central nervous system stimulants for attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, disease-modifying therapies for multiple sclerosis, histamine-2 (H2) blockers, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors; 2 studies on cancer medications; and 2 studies on all marketed or new drugs. None of the studies reported that brand-brand competition lowers list prices of existing drugs within a class. The findings of 2 studies suggest that such competition may help restrain how new drug prices are set. Other studies found evidence that brand-brand competition was mediated by the relative quality of competing drugs and the extent to which they are marketed, with safer or more effective new drugs and greater marketing associated with higher intraclass list prices. Our investigation was limited by the studies' use of list rather than net prices and the age of some of the data.Conclusions: Our findings suggest that policies to promote brand-brand competition in the US pharmaceutical market, such as accelerating approval of non-first-in-class drugs, will likely not result in lower drug list prices absent additional structural reforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Differentiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery models, in which patients are provided with care relevant to their current status (e.g., newly initiating, stable on treatment, or unstable on treatment) has become an essential part of patient-centered health systems. In 2015, the South African government implemented Chronic Disease Adherence Guidelines (AGLs), which involved five interventions: Fast Track Initiation Counseling for newly initiating patients, Enhanced Adherence Counseling for patients with an unsuppressed viral load, Early Tracing of patients who miss visits, and Adherence Clubs (ACs) and Decentralized Medication Delivery (DMD) for stable patients. We evaluated two of these interventions in 24 South African facilities: ACs, in which patients meet in groups outside usual clinic procedures and receive medication; and DMD, in which patients pick up their medication outside usual pharmacy queues.Methods and Findings: We compared those participating in ACs or receiving DMD at intervention sites to those eligible for ACs or DMD at control sites. Outcomes were retention and sustained viral suppression (<400 copies/mL) 12 months after AC or DMD enrollment (or comparable time for controls). 12 facilities were randomly allocated to intervention and 12 to control arms in four provinces (Gauteng, North West, Limpopo, and KwaZulu Natal). We calculated adjusted risk differences (aRDs) with cluster adjustment using generalized estimating equations (GEEs) using difference in differences (DiD) with patients eligible for ACs/DMD prior to implementation (Jan 1, 2015) for comparison. For DMD, randomization was not preserved, and the analysis was treated as observational. For ACs, 275 intervention and 294 control patients were enrolled; 72% of patients were female, 61% were aged 30-49 years, and median CD4 count at ART initiation was 268 cells/μL. AC patients had higher 1-year retention (89.5% versus 81.6%, aRD: 8.3%; 95% CI: 1.1% to 15.6%) and comparable sustained 1-year viral suppression (<400 copies/mL any time ≤ 18 months) (80.0% versus 79.6%, aRD: 3.8%; 95% CI: -6.9% to 14.4%). Retention associations were apparently stronger for men than women (men RD: 13.1%, 95% CI: 0.3% to 23.5%; women RD: 6.0%, 95% CI: -0.9% to 12.9%). For DMD, 232 intervention and 346 control patients were enrolled; 71% of patients were female, 65% were aged 30-49 years, and median CD4 count at ART initiation was 270 cells/μL. DMD patients had apparently lower retention (81.5% versus 87.2%, aRD: -5.9%; 95% CI: -12.5% to 0.8%) and comparable viral suppression versus standard of care (77.2% versus 74.3%, aRD: -1.0%; 95% CI: -12.2% to 10.1%), though in both cases, our findings were imprecise. We also noted apparently increased viral suppression among men (RD: 11.1%; 95% CI: -3.4% to 25.5%). The main study limitations were missing data and lack of randomization in the DMD analysis.Conclusions: In this study, we found comparable DMD outcomes versus standard of care at facilities, a benefit for retention of patients in care with ACs, and apparent benefits in terms of retention (for AC patients) and sustained viral suppression (for DMD patients) among men. This suggests the importance of alternative service delivery models for men and of community-based strategies to decongest primary healthcare facilities. Because these strategies also reduce patient inconvenience and decongest clinics, comparable outcomes are a potential success. The cost of all five AGL interventions and possible effects on reducing clinic congestion should be investigated.Clinical Trial Registration: NCT02536768. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this Collection Review for the Novel Treatments for Tuberculosis Collection, Piero Olliaro and Michael Vaillant discuss the considerations when choosing a non-inferiority margin that is meaningful from statistical, ethical, clinical, and health standpoint. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geraint Davies and colleagues discuss the potential for innovative early-phase clinical trial methods and technologies to reduce risk and speed up drug development for tuberculosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) provides antifilarial medications to hundreds of millions of people annually to treat filarial infections and prevent elephantiasis. Recent trials have shown that a single-dose, triple-drug treatment (ivermectin with diethylcarbamazine and albendazole [IDA]) is superior to a two-drug combination (diethylcarbamazine plus albendazole [DA]) that is widely used in LF elimination programs. This study was performed to assess the safety of IDA and DA in a variety of endemic settings.Methods and Findings: Large community studies were conducted in five countries between October 2016 and November 2017. Two studies were performed in areas with no prior mass drug administration (MDA) for filariasis (Papua New Guinea and Indonesia), and three studies were performed in areas with persistent LF despite extensive prior MDA (India, Haiti, and Fiji). Participants were treated with a single oral dose of IDA (ivermectin, 200 μg/kg; diethylcarbamazine, 6 mg/kg; plus albendazole, a fixed dose of 400 mg) or with DA alone. Treatment assignment in each study site was randomized by locality of residence. Treatment was offered to residents who were ≥5 years of age and not pregnant. Adverse events (AEs) were assessed by medical teams with active follow-up for 2 days and passive follow-up for an additional 5 days. A total of 26,836 persons were enrolled (13,535 females and 13,300 males). A total of 12,280 participants were treated with DA, and 14,556 were treated with IDA. On day 1 or 2 after treatment, 97.4% of participants were assessed for AEs. The frequency of all AEs was similar after IDA and DA treatment (12% versus 12.1%, adjusted odds ratio for IDA versus DA 1.15, 95% CI 0.87-1.52, P = 0.316); 10.9% of participants experienced mild (grade 1) AEs, 1% experienced moderate (grade 2) AEs, and 0.1% experienced severe (grade 3) AEs. Rates of serious AEs after DA and IDA treatment were 0.04% (95% CI 0.01%-0.1%) and 0.01% (95% CI 0.00%-0.04%), respectively. Severity of AEs was not significantly different after IDA or DA. Five of six serious AEs reported occurred after DA treatment. The most common AEs reported were headache, dizziness, abdominal pain, fever, nausea, and fatigue. AE frequencies varied by country and were higher in adults and in females. AEs were more common in study participants with microfilaremia (33.4% versus 11.1%, P < 0.001) and more common in microfilaremic participants after IDA than after DA (39.4% versus 25.6%, P < 0.001). However, there was no excess of severe or serious AEs after IDA in this subgroup. The main limitation of the study was that it was open-label. Also, aggregation of AE data from multiple study sites tends to obscure variability among study sites.Conclusions: In this study, we observed that IDA was well tolerated in LF-endemic populations. Posttreatment AE rates and severity did not differ significantly after IDA or DA treatment. Thus, results of this study suggest that IDA should be as safe as DA for use as a MDA regimen for LF elimination in areas that currently receive DA.Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov registration number: NCT02899936. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Because of the potential mutagenic effects of chemo- and radiotherapy, there is concern regarding increased risk of congenital malformations (CMs) among children of fathers with cancer. Previous register studies indicate increased CM risk among children conceived after paternal cancer but lack data on oncological treatment. Increased CM risk was recently reported in children born before paternal cancer. This study aims to investigate whether anti-neoplastic treatment for testicular germ-cell cancer (TGCC) implies additional CM risk.Methods and Findings: In this nationwide register study, all singletons born in Sweden 1994-2014 (n = 2,027,997) were included. Paternal TGCC diagnoses (n = 2,380), anti-neoplastic treatment, and offspring CMs were gathered from the Swedish Norwegian Testicular Cancer Group (SWENOTECA) and the Swedish Medical Birth Register. Children were grouped based on +/- paternal TGCC; treatment regimen: surveillance (n = 1,340), chemotherapy (n = 2,533), or radiotherapy (n = 360); and according to time of conception: pre- (n = 2,770) or post-treatment (n = 1,437). Odds ratios (ORs) for CMs were calculated using logistic regression with adjustment for parental ages, maternal body mass index (BMI), and maternal smoking. Children conceived before a specific treatment acted as reference for children conceived after the same treatment. Among children fathered by men with TGCC (n = 4,207), 184 had a CM. The risk of malformations was higher among children of fathers with TGCC compared with children fathered by men without TGCC (OR 1.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-1.38, p = 0.001, 4.4% versus 3.5%). However, no additional risk increase was associated with oncological treatment when comparing post-treatment-to pretreatment-conceived children (chemotherapy, OR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.54-1.25, p = 0.37, 4.1% versus 4.6%; radiotherapy, OR = 1.01, 95% CI 0.25-4.12, p = 0.98, 3.2% versus 3.0%). Study limitations include lack of data on use of cryopreserved or donor sperm and on seminoma patients for the period 1995-2000-both tending to decrease the difference between the groups with TGCC and without TGCC. Furthermore, the power of analyses on chemotherapy intensity and radiotherapy was limited.Conclusions: No additional increased risk of CMs was observed in children of men with TGCC treated with radio- or chemotherapy. However, paternal TGCC per se was associated with modestly increased risk for offspring malformations. Clinically, this information can reassure concerned patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Effective management of heart failure is complex, and ensuring evidence-based practice presents a major challenge to health services worldwide. Over the past decade, the United Kingdom introduced a series of national initiatives to improve evidence-based heart failure management, including a landmark pay-for-performance scheme in primary care and a national audit in secondary care started in 2004 and 2007, respectively. Quality improvement efforts have been evaluated within individual clinical settings, but patterns of care across its continuum, although a critical component of chronic disease management, have not been studied. We have designed this study to investigate patients' trajectories of care around the time of diagnosis and their variation over time by age, sex, and socioeconomic status.Methods and Findings: For this retrospective population-based study, we used linked primary and secondary health records from a representative sample of the UK population provided by the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). We identified 93,074 individuals newly diagnosed with heart failure between 2002 and 2014, with a mean age of 76.7 years and of which 49% were women. We examined five indicators of care: (i) diagnosis care setting (inpatient or outpatient), (ii) posthospitalisation follow-up in primary care, (iii) diagnostic investigations, (iv) prescription of essential drugs, and (v) drug treatment dose. We used Poisson and linear regression models to calculate category-specific risk ratios (RRs) or adjusted differences and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for year of diagnosis, age, sex, region, and socioeconomic status. From 2002 to 2014, indicators of care presented diverging trends. Outpatient diagnoses and follow-up after hospital discharge in primary care declined substantially (ranging from 56% in 2002 to 36% in 2014, RR 0.64 [0.62, 0.67] and 20% to 14%, RR 0.73 [0.65, 0.82], respectively). Primary care referral for diagnostic investigations and appropriate initiation of beta blockers and angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors (ACE-Is) or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) both increased significantly (37% versus 82%, RR 2.24 [2.15, 2.34] and 18% versus 63%, RR 3.48 [2.72, 4.43], respectively). Yet, the average daily dose prescribed remained below guideline recommendations (42% for ACE-Is or ARBs, 29% for beta blockers in 2014) and was largely unchanged beyond the first 30 days after diagnosis. Despite increasing rates of treatment initiation, the overall dose prescribed to patients in the 12 months following diagnosis improved little over the period of study (adjusted difference for the combined dose of beta blocker and ACE-I or ARB: +6% [+2%, +10%]). Women and patients aged over 75 years presented significant gaps across all five indicators of care. Our study was limited by the available clinical information, which did not include exact left ventricular ejection fraction values, investigations performed during hospital admissions, or information about follow-up in community heart failure clinics.Conclusions: Management of heart failure patients in the UK presents important shortcomings that affect screening, continuity of care, and medication titration and disproportionally impact women and older people. National reporting and incentive schemes confined to individual clinical settings have been insufficient to identify these gaps and address patients' long-term care needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on the clinical practice and evidence-based management of heart failure. Topics discussed the need for high-quality implementation science to integrate and embed research advances into clinical practice; mentions the initiation of combination therapy with beta blocker and angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor; and highlights the initiatives to improve standards in heart failure treatment that focused on primary and secondary care.

Background: Seizures are the main cause of maternal death in women with epilepsy, but there are no tools for predicting seizures in pregnancy. We set out to develop and validate a prognostic model, using information collected during the antenatal booking visit, to predict seizure risk at any time in pregnancy and until 6 weeks postpartum in women with epilepsy on antiepileptic drugs.Methods and Findings: We used datasets of a prospective cohort study (EMPiRE) of 527 pregnant women with epilepsy on medication recruited from 50 hospitals in the UK (4 November 2011-17 August 2014). The model development cohort comprised 399 women whose antiepileptic drug doses were adjusted based on clinical features only; the validation cohort comprised 128 women whose drug dose adjustments were informed by serum drug levels. The outcome was epileptic (non-eclamptic) seizure captured using diary records. We fitted the model using LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression, and reported the performance using C-statistic (scale 0-1, values > 0.5 show discrimination) and calibration slope (scale 0-1, values near 1 show accuracy) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We determined the net benefit (a weighted sum of true positive and false positive classifications) of using the model, with various probability thresholds, to aid clinicians in making individualised decisions regarding, for example, referral to tertiary care, frequency and intensity of monitoring, and changes in antiepileptic medication. Seizures occurred in 183 women (46%, 183/399) in the model development cohort and in 57 women (45%, 57/128) in the validation cohort. The model included age at first seizure, baseline seizure classification, history of mental health disorder or learning difficulty, occurrence of tonic-clonic and non-tonic-clonic seizures in the 3 months before pregnancy, previous admission to hospital for seizures during pregnancy, and baseline dose of lamotrigine and levetiracetam. The C-statistic was 0.79 (95% CI 0.75, 0.84). On external validation, the model showed good performance (C-statistic 0.76, 95% CI 0.66, 0.85; calibration slope 0.93, 95% CI 0.44, 1.41) but with imprecise estimates. The EMPiRE model showed the highest net proportional benefit for predicted probability thresholds between 12% and 99%. Limitations of this study include the varied gestational ages of women at recruitment, retrospective patient recall of seizure history, potential variations in seizure classification, the small number of events in the validation cohort, and the clinical utility restricted to decision-making thresholds above 12%. The model findings may not be generalisable to low- and middle-income countries, or when information on all predictors is not available.Conclusions: The EMPiRE model showed good performance in predicting the risk of seizures in pregnant women with epilepsy who are prescribed antiepileptic drugs. Integration of the tool within the antenatal booking visit, deployed as a simple nomogram, can help to optimise care in women with epilepsy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Clinical medication reviews (CMRs) are increasingly performed in older persons with multimorbidity and polypharmacy to reduce drug-related problems (DRPs). However, there is limited evidence that a CMR can improve clinical outcomes. Little attention has been paid to patients' preferences and needs. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of a patient-centred CMR, focused on personal goals, on health-related quality of life (HR-QoL), and on number of health problems.Methods and Findings: This study was a randomised controlled trial (RCT) performed in 35 community pharmacies and cooperating general practices in the Netherlands. Community-dwelling older persons (≥70 years) with polypharmacy (≥7 long-term medications) were randomly assigned to usual care or to receive a CMR. Randomisation was performed at the patient level per pharmacy using block randomisation. The primary outcomes were HR-QoL (assessed with EuroQol [EQ]-5D-5L and EQ-Visual Analogue Scale [VAS]) and number of health problems (such as pain or dizziness), after 3 and 6 months. Health problems were measured with a self-developed written questionnaire as the total number of health problems and number of health problems with a moderate to severe impact on daily life. Between April 2016 and February 2017, we recruited 629 participants (54% females, median age 79 years) and randomly assigned them to receive the intervention (n = 315) or usual care (n = 314). Over 6 months, in the intervention group, HR-QoL measured with EQ-VAS increased by 3.4 points (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.94 to 5.8; p = 0.006), and the number of health problems with impact on daily life decreased by 12% (difference at 6 months -0.34; 95% CI -0.62 to -0.044; p = 0.024) as compared with the control group. There was no significant difference between the intervention group and control group for HR-QoL measured with EQ-5D-5L (difference at 6 months = -0.0022; 95% CI -0.024 to 0.020; p = 0.85) or total number of health problems (difference at 6 months = -0.30; 95% CI -0.64 to 0.054; p = 0.099). The main study limitations include the risk of bias due to the lack of blinding and difficulties in demonstrating which part of this complex intervention (for example, goal setting, extra attention to patients, reducing health problems, drug changes) contributed to the effects that we observed.Conclusions: In this study, we observed that a CMR focused on personal goals improved older patients' lives and wellbeing by increasing quality of life measured with EQ-VAS and decreasing the number of health problems with impact on daily life, although it did not significantly affect quality of life measured with the EQ-5D. Including the patient's personal goals and preferences in a medication review may help to establish these effects on outcomes that are relevant to older patients' lives.Trial Registration: Netherlands Trial Register; NTR5713. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This month in PLOS Medicine we launched a Special Issue on New Tools and Strategies for Tuberculosis Diagnosis, Care, and Elimination. In this issue's Editorial, the Guest Editors Claudia Denkinger, Richard Chaisson, and Mark Hatherill highlight some of the research that will publish and how these studies focusing on discovery, clinical trials and implementation research collectively add to the prospects for reaching the EndTB targets of the WHO by 2035. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The sites of mycobacterial infection in the lungs of tuberculosis (TB) patients have complex structures and poor vascularization, which obstructs drug distribution to these hard-to-reach and hard-to-treat disease sites, further leading to suboptimal drug concentrations, resulting in compromised TB treatment response and resistance development. Quantifying lesion-specific drug uptake and pharmacokinetics (PKs) in TB patients is necessary to optimize treatment regimens at all infection sites, to identify patients at risk, to improve existing regimens, and to advance development of novel regimens. Using drug-level data in plasma and from 9 distinct pulmonary lesion types (vascular, avascular, and mixed) obtained from 15 hard-to-treat TB patients who failed TB treatments and therefore underwent lung resection surgery, we quantified the distribution and the penetration of 7 major TB drugs at these sites, and we provide novel tools for treatment optimization.Methods and Findings: A total of 329 plasma- and 1,362 tissue-specific drug concentrations from 9 distinct lung lesion types were obtained according to optimal PK sampling schema from 15 patients (10 men, 5 women, aged 23 to 58) undergoing lung resection surgery (clinical study NCT00816426 performed in South Korea between 9 June 2010 and 24 June 2014). Seven major TB drugs (rifampin [RIF], isoniazid [INH], linezolid [LZD], moxifloxacin [MFX], clofazimine [CFZ], pyrazinamide [PZA], and kanamycin [KAN]) were quantified. We developed and evaluated a site-of-action mechanistic PK model using nonlinear mixed effects methodology. We quantified population- and patient-specific lesion/plasma ratios (RPLs), dynamics, and variability of drug uptake into each lesion for each drug. CFZ and MFX had higher drug exposures in lesions compared to plasma (median RPL 2.37, range across lesions 1.26-22.03); RIF, PZA, and LZD showed moderate yet suboptimal lesion penetration (median RPL 0.61, range 0.21-2.4), while INH and KAN showed poor tissue penetration (median RPL 0.4, range 0.03-0.73). Stochastic PK/pharmacodynamic (PD) simulations were carried out to evaluate current regimen combinations and dosing guidelines in distinct patient strata. Patients receiving standard doses of RIF and INH, who are of the lower range of exposure distribution, spent substantial periods (>12 h/d) below effective concentrations in hard-to-treat lesions, such as caseous lesions and cavities. Standard doses of INH (300 mg) and KAN (1,000 mg) did not reach therapeutic thresholds in most lesions for a majority of the population. Drugs and doses that did reach target exposure in most subjects include 400 mg MFX and 100 mg CFZ. Patients with cavitary lesions, irrespective of drug choice, have an increased likelihood of subtherapeutic concentrations, leading to a higher risk of resistance acquisition while on treatment. A limitation of this study was the small sample size of 15 patients, performed in a unique study population of TB patients who failed treatment and underwent lung resection surgery. These results still need further exploration and validation in larger and more diverse cohorts.Conclusions: Our results suggest that the ability to reach and maintain therapeutic concentrations is both lesion and drug specific, indicating that stratifying patients based on disease extent, lesion types, and individual drug-susceptibility profiles may eventually be useful for guiding the selection of patient-tailored drug regimens and may lead to improved TB treatment outcomes. We provide a web-based tool to further explore this model and results at http://saviclab.org/tb-lesion/. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Christian Lienhardt and Payam Nahid launch the Collection on Advances in Clinical Trial Design for Development of New Tuberculosis Treatments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a Collection Review, Patrick Phillips and colleagues discuss developments in clinical trial design for the evaluation of TB therapeutics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The prevalence of diabetes is increasing rapidly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), urgently requiring detailed evidence to guide the response of health systems to this epidemic. In an effort to understand at what step in the diabetes care continuum individuals are lost to care, and how this varies between countries and population groups, this study examined health system performance for diabetes among adults in 28 LMICs using a cascade of care approach.Methods and Findings: We pooled individual participant data from nationally representative surveys done between 2008 and 2016 in 28 LMICs. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥ 7.0 mmol/l (126 mg/dl), random plasma glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l (200 mg/dl), HbA1c ≥ 6.5%, or reporting to be taking medication for diabetes. Stages of the care cascade were as follows: tested, diagnosed, lifestyle advice and/or medication given ("treated"), and controlled (HbA1c < 8.0% or equivalent). We stratified cascades of care by country, geographic region, World Bank income group, and individual-level characteristics (age, sex, educational attainment, household wealth quintile, and body mass index [BMI]). We then used logistic regression models with country-level fixed effects to evaluate predictors of (1) testing, (2) treatment, and (3) control. The final sample included 847,413 adults in 28 LMICs (8 low income, 9 lower-middle income, 11 upper-middle income). Survey sample size ranged from 824 in Guyana to 750,451 in India. The prevalence of diabetes was 8.8% (95% CI: 8.2%-9.5%), and the prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 4.8% (95% CI: 4.5%-5.2%). Health system performance for management of diabetes showed large losses to care at the stage of being tested, and low rates of diabetes control. Total unmet need for diabetes care (defined as the sum of those not tested, tested but undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, and treated but with diabetes not controlled) was 77.0% (95% CI: 74.9%-78.9%). Performance along the care cascade was significantly better in upper-middle income countries, but across all World Bank income groups, only half of participants with diabetes who were tested achieved diabetes control. Greater age, educational attainment, and BMI were associated with higher odds of being tested, being treated, and achieving control. The limitations of this study included the use of a single glucose measurement to assess diabetes, differences in the approach to wealth measurement across surveys, and variation in the date of the surveys.Conclusions: The study uncovered poor management of diabetes along the care cascade, indicating large unmet need for diabetes care across 28 LMICs. Performance across the care cascade varied by World Bank income group and individual-level characteristics, particularly age, educational attainment, and BMI. This policy-relevant analysis can inform country-specific interventions and offers a baseline by which future progress can be measured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cascade of care is a model for evaluating patient retention across sequential stages of care required to achieve a successful treatment outcome. This approach was first used to evaluate HIV care and has since been applied to other diseases. The tuberculosis (TB) community has only recently started using care cascade analyses to quantify gaps in quality of care. In this article, we describe methods for estimating gaps (patient losses) and steps (patients retained) in the care cascade for active TB disease. We highlight approaches for overcoming challenges in constructing the TB care cascade, which include difficulties in estimating the population-level burden of disease and the diagnostic gap due to the limited sensitivity of TB diagnostic tests. We also describe potential uses of this model for evaluating the impact of interventions to improve case finding, diagnosis, linkage to care, retention in care, and post-treatment monitoring of TB patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Antenatal corticosteroid therapy (ACT) is used clinically to prepare the fetal lung for impending preterm birth, but animal and human studies link corticosteroids to smaller birth size. Whether ACT is associated with birth size is debated; therefore, we assessed differences in birth size in treated versus untreated pregnancies.Methods and Findings: This observational register-based study used data from the Finnish Medical Birth Register (FMBR) covering all births in Finland (January 1, 2006-December 31, 2010). We used unadjusted and adjusted regression analyses as well as propensity score matching (PSM) to analyze whether birth size differed by ACT exposure. PSM provides a stringent comparison, as subsamples were created matched on baseline and medical characteristics between treated and untreated women. All analyses were stratified by timing of birth. The primary study outcome was birth size: birth weight (BWT), birth length (BL), ponderal index (PI), and head circumference (HC) measured immediately after birth and recorded in the FMBR. Additional analyses explored indicators of neonatal health in relation to ACT exposure and birth size. A total of 278,508 live-born singleton births with ≥24 gestational completed weeks were registered in the FMBR during the 5-year study period. Over 4% of infants were born preterm, and 4,887 women were treated with ACT (1.75%). More than 44% of the exposed infants (n = 2,173) were born at term. First, results of unadjusted regression analyses using the entire sample showed the greatest reductions in BWT as compared to the other analytic methods: very preterm -61.26 g (±SE 24.12, P < 0.01), preterm -232.90 g (±SE 17.24, P < .001), near term -171.50 g (±SE 17.52, P < .001), and at term -101.95 g (±SE 10.89, P < .001). Second, using the entire sample, regression analyses adjusted for baseline and medical conditions showed significant differences in BWT between exposed and unexposed infants: very preterm -61.54 g (±SE 28.62, P < .03), preterm -222.78 g (±SE 19.64, P < .001), near term -159.25 g (±SE 19.14, P < .001), and at term -91.62 g (±SE 11.86, P < .03). Third, using the stringent PSM analyses based on matched subsamples, infants exposed to ACT weighed less at birth: -220.18 g (±SE 21.43, P < .001), -140.68 g (±SE 23.09, P < .001), and -89.38 g (±SE 14.16, P < .001), born preterm, near term, and at term, respectively. Similarly, significant reductions in BL and HC were also observed using the three analytic methods. There were no differences among postterm infants regardless of analytic method. Likewise, we observed no differences with respect to PI. Additional analyses showed that exposed and unexposed infants had generally similar Apgar scores at birth, yet the ACT-treated infants received greater medical care during the first 7 days of life and beyond. Our study is mainly limited by lack of data in FMBR specifying the interval between treatment and birth as well as other potential confounders that could not be tested.Conclusions: In this study, ACT was consistently associated with reduction in birth size for infants born preterm, near term, or at term. Further investigation is warranted alongside reevaluation of guidelines. Efforts need to be made to correctly identify and target patients who will deliver preterm. Reduced growth should be considered when deliberating early care decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The emergence and spread of multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) threatens global malaria elimination efforts. Mass drug administration (MDA), the presumptive antimalarial treatment of an entire population to clear the subclinical parasite reservoir, is a strategy to accelerate malaria elimination. We report a cluster randomised trial to assess the effectiveness of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) MDA in reducing falciparum malaria incidence and prevalence in 16 remote village populations in Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia, and the Lao People's Democratic Republic, where artemisinin resistance is prevalent.Methods and Findings: After establishing vector control and community-based case management and following intensive community engagement, we used restricted randomisation within village pairs to select 8 villages to receive early DP MDA and 8 villages as controls for 12 months, after which the control villages received deferred DP MDA. The MDA comprised 3 monthly rounds of 3 daily doses of DP and, except in Cambodia, a single low dose of primaquine. We conducted exhaustive cross-sectional surveys of the entire population of each village at quarterly intervals using ultrasensitive quantitative PCR to detect Plasmodium infections. The study was conducted between May 2013 and July 2017. The investigators randomised 16 villages that had a total of 8,445 residents at the start of the study. Of these 8,445 residents, 4,135 (49%) residents living in 8 villages, plus an additional 288 newcomers to the villages, were randomised to receive early MDA; 3,790 out of the 4,423 (86%) participated in at least 1 MDA round, and 2,520 out of the 4,423 (57%) participated in all 3 rounds. The primary outcome, P. falciparum prevalence by month 3 (M3), fell by 92% (from 5.1% [171/3,340] to 0.4% [12/2,828]) in early MDA villages and by 29% (from 7.2% [246/3,405] to 5.1% [155/3,057]) in control villages. Over the following 9 months, the P. falciparum prevalence increased to 3.3% (96/2,881) in early MDA villages and to 6.1% (128/2,101) in control villages (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.41 [95% CI 0.20 to 0.84]; p = 0.015). Individual protection was proportional to the number of completed MDA rounds. Of 221 participants with subclinical P. falciparum infections who participated in MDA and could be followed up, 207 (94%) cleared their infections, including 9 of 10 with artemisinin- and piperaquine-resistant infections. The DP MDAs were well tolerated; 6 severe adverse events were detected during the follow-up period, but none was attributable to the intervention.Conclusions: Added to community-based basic malaria control measures, 3 monthly rounds of DP MDA reduced the incidence and prevalence of falciparum malaria over a 1-year period in areas affected by artemisinin resistance. P. falciparum infections returned during the follow-up period as the remaining infections spread and malaria was reintroduced from surrounding areas. Limitations of this study include a relatively small sample of villages, heterogeneity between villages, and mobility of villagers that may have limited the impact of the intervention. These results suggest that, if used as part of a comprehensive, well-organised, and well-resourced elimination programme, DP MDA can be a useful additional tool to accelerate malaria elimination.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01872702. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In vitro and animal studies have suggested that trazodone, a licensed antidepressant, may protect against dementia. However, no studies have been conducted to assess the effect of trazodone on dementia in humans. This electronic health records study assessed the association between trazodone use and the risk of developing dementia in clinical practice.Methods and Findings: The Health Improvement Network (THIN), an archive of anonymised medical and prescribing records from primary care practices in the United Kingdom, contains records of over 15 million patients. We assessed patients from THIN aged ≥50 years who received at least two consecutive prescriptions for an antidepressant between January 2000 and January 2017. We compared the risk of dementia among patients who were prescribed trazodone to that of patients with similar baseline characteristics prescribed other antidepressants, using a Cox regression model with 1:5 propensity score matching. Patients prescribed trazodone who met the inclusion criteria (n = 4,716; 59.2% female) were older (mean age 70.9 ± 13.1 versus 65.6 ± 11.4 years) and were more likely than those prescribed other antidepressants (n = 420,280; 59.7% female) to have cerebrovascular disease and use anxiolytic or antipsychotic drugs. After propensity score matching, 4,596 users of trazadone and 22,980 users of other antidepressants were analysed. The median time to dementia diagnosis for people prescribed trazodone was 1.8 years (interquartile range [IQR] = 0.5-5.0 years). Incidence of dementia among patients taking trazodone was higher than in matched users of other antidepressants (1.8 versus 1.1 per 100 person-years), with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.80 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.56-2.09; p < 0.001). However, our results do not suggest a causal association. When we restricted the control group to users of mirtazapine only in a sensitivity analysis, the findings were very similar to the results of the main analysis. The main limitation of our study is the possibility of indication bias, because people in the prodromal stage of dementia might be preferentially prescribed trazodone. Due to the observational nature of this study, we cannot rule out residual confounding.Conclusions: In this study of UK population-based electronic health records, we found no association between trazodone use and a reduced risk of dementia compared with other antidepressants. These results suggest that the clinical use of trazodone is not associated with a reduced risk of dementia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Healthcare interventions on weekends have been associated with increased mortality and adverse clinical outcomes, but these findings are inconsistent. We hypothesized that patients admitted to hospital on weekends who have surgery have an increased risk of death compared with patients who are admitted and have surgery on weekdays.Methods and Findings: This matched cohort study included 318,202 adult patients from Ontario health administrative and demographic databases, admitted to acute care hospitals from 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2015. A total of 159,101 patients who were admitted on weekends and underwent noncardiac surgery were classified by day of surgery (weekend versus weekday) and matched 1:1 to patients who both were admitted and had surgery on a weekday (Tuesday to Thursday); matching was based on age (in years), anesthesia basic unit value for the surgical procedure, median neighborhood household income quintile, resource utilization band (a ranking system of overall morbidity), rurality of home location, year of admission, and urgency of admission. Of weekend admissions, 16.2% (25,872) were elective and 53.9% (85,744) had surgery on the weekend of admission. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 30 days of the date of hospital admission. The 30-day all-cause mortality for patients admitted on weekends who had noncardiac surgery was 2.6% (4,211/159,101) versus 2.5% (3,901/159,101) for those who were admitted and had surgery on weekdays (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.05; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.11; P = 0.03). However, there was significant heterogeneity in the increased odds of death according to the urgency of admission and when surgery was performed (weekend versus weekday). For urgent admissions on weekends (n = 133,229), there was no significant increase in odds of mortality when surgery was performed on the weekend (adjusted OR 1.02; 95% CI 0.95 to 1.09; P = 0.7) or on a subsequent weekday (adjusted OR 1.05; 95% CI 0.98 to 1.12; P = 0.2) compared to urgent admissions on weekdays. Elective admissions on weekends (n = 25,782) had increased risk of death both when surgery was performed on the weekend (adjusted OR 3.30; 95% CI 1.98 to 5.49; P < 0.001) and when surgery was performed on a subsequent weekday (adjusted OR 2.70; 95% CI 1.81 to 4.03; P < 0.001). The main limitations of this study were the lack of data regarding reason for admission and cause of increased time interval from admission to surgery for some cases, the small number of deaths in some subgroups (i.e., elective surgery), and the possibility of residual unmeasured confounding from increased illness severity for weekend admissions.Conclusions: When patients have surgery during their hospitalization, admission on weekends in Ontario, Canada, was associated with a small but significant proportional increase in 30-day all-cause mortality, but there was significant heterogeneity in outcomes depending on the urgency of admission and when surgery was performed. An increased risk of death was found only for elective admissions on weekends; whether this is a function of patient-level factors or represents a true weekend effect needs to be further elucidated. These findings have potential implications for resource allocation in hospitals and the redistribution of elective surgery to weekends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cigarette smoking is associated with earlier menopause, but the impact of being a former smoker and any dose-response relationships on the degree of smoking and age at menopause have been less clear. If the toxic impact of cigarette smoking on ovarian function is irreversible, we hypothesized that even former smokers might experience earlier menopause, and variations in intensity, duration, cumulative dose, and age at start/quit of smoking might have varying impacts on the risk of experiencing earlier menopause.Methods and Findings: A total of 207,231 and 27,580 postmenopausal women were included in the cross-sectional and prospective analyses, respectively. They were from 17 studies in 7 countries (Australia, Denmark, France, Japan, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States) that contributed data to the International collaboration for a Life course Approach to reproductive health and Chronic disease Events (InterLACE). Information on smoking status, cigarettes smoked per day (intensity), smoking duration, pack-years (cumulative dose), age started, and years since quitting smoking was collected at baseline. We used multinomial logistic regression models to estimate multivariable relative risk ratios (RRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations between each smoking measure and categorised age at menopause (<40 (premature), 40-44 (early), 45-49, 50-51 (reference), and ≥52 years). The association with current and former smokers was analysed separately. Sensitivity analyses and two-step meta-analyses were also conducted to test the results. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) was used to compare the fit of the models of smoking measures. Overall, 1.9% and 7.3% of women experienced premature and early menopause, respectively. Compared with never smokers, current smokers had around twice the risk of experiencing premature (RRR 2.05; 95% CI 1.73-2.44) (p < 0.001) and early menopause (1.80; 1.66-1.95) (p < 0.001). The corresponding RRRs in former smokers were attenuated to 1.13 (1.04-1.23; p = 0.006) and 1.15 (1.05-1.27; p = 0.005). In both current and former smokers, dose-response relationships were observed, i.e., higher intensity, longer duration, higher cumulative dose, earlier age at start smoking, and shorter time since quitting smoking were significantly associated with higher risk of premature and early menopause, as well as earlier menopause at 45-49 years. Duration of smoking was a strong predictor of age at natural menopause. Among current smokers with duration of 15-20 years, the risk was markedly higher for premature (15.58; 11.29-19.86; p < 0.001) and early (6.55; 5.04-8.52; p < 0.001) menopause. Also, current smokers with 11-15 pack-years had over 4-fold (4.35; 2.78-5.92; p < 0.001) and 3-fold (3.01; 2.15-4.21; p < 0.001) risk of premature and early menopause, respectively. Smokers who had quit smoking for more than 10 years had similar risk as never smokers (1.04; 0.98-1.10; p = 0.176). A limitation of the study is the measurement errors that may have arisen due to recall bias.Conclusions: The probability of earlier menopause is positively associated with intensity, duration, cumulative dose, and earlier initiation of smoking. Smoking duration is a much stronger predictor of premature and early menopause than others. Our findings highlight the clear benefits for women of early smoking cessation to lower their excess risk of earlier menopause. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sustained retention in HIV care (RIC) and viral suppression (VS) are central to US national HIV prevention strategies, but have not been comprehensively assessed in criminal justice (CJ) populations with known health disparities. The purpose of this study is to identify predictors of RIC and VS following release from prison or jail.Methods and Findings: This is a retrospective cohort study of all adult people living with HIV (PLWH) incarcerated in Connecticut, US, during the period January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2011, and observed through December 31, 2014 (n = 1,094). Most cohort participants were unmarried (83.7%) men (77.0%) who were black or Hispanic (78.1%) and acquired HIV from injection drug use (72.6%). Prison-based pharmacy and custody databases were linked with community HIV surveillance monitoring and case management databases. Post-release RIC declined steadily over 3 years of follow-up (67.2% retained for year 1, 51.3% retained for years 1-2, and 42.5% retained for years 1-3). Compared with individuals who were not re-incarcerated, individuals who were re-incarcerated were more likely to meet RIC criteria (48% versus 34%; p < 0.001) but less likely to have VS (72% versus 81%; p = 0.048). Using multivariable logistic regression models (individual-level analysis for 1,001 individuals after excluding 93 deaths), both sustained RIC and VS at 3 years post-release were independently associated with older age (RIC: adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.22-2.12; VS: AOR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.06-1.78), having health insurance (RIC: AOR = 2.15, 95% CI = 1.60-2.89; VS: AOR = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.53-2.64), and receiving an increased number of transitional case management visits. The same factors were significant when we assessed RIC and VS outcomes in each 6-month period using generalized estimating equations (for 1,094 individuals contributing 6,227 6-month periods prior to death or censoring). Additionally, receipt of antiretroviral therapy during incarceration (RIC: AOR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.07-1.65; VS: AOR = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.56-2.34), early linkage to care post-release (RIC: AOR = 2.64, 95% CI = 2.03-3.43; VS: AOR = 1.79; 95% CI = 1.45-2.21), and absolute time and proportion of follow-up time spent re-incarcerated were highly correlated with better treatment outcomes. Limited data were available on changes over time in injection drug use or other substance use disorders, psychiatric disorders, or housing status.Conclusions: In a large cohort of CJ-involved PLWH with a 3-year post-release evaluation, RIC diminished significantly over time, but was associated with HIV care during incarceration, health insurance, case management services, and early linkage to care post-release. While re-incarceration and conditional release provide opportunities to engage in care, reducing recidivism and supporting community-based RIC efforts are key to improving longitudinal treatment outcomes among CJ-involved PLWH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Intravaginal rings (IVRs) for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) theoretically overcome some adherence concerns associated with frequent dosing that can occur with oral or vaginal film/gel regimens. An innovative pod-IVR, composed of an elastomer scaffold that can hold up to 10 polymer-coated drug cores (or "pods"), is distinct from other IVR designs as drug release from each pod can be controlled independently. A pod-IVR has been developed for the delivery of tenofovir (TFV) disoproxil fumarate (TDF) in combination with emtricitabine (FTC), as daily oral TDF-FTC is the only Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved regimen for HIV PrEP. A triple combination IVR building on this platform and delivering TDF-FTC along with the antiretroviral (ARV) agent maraviroc (MVC) also is under development.Methodology and Findings: This pilot Phase I trial conducted between June 23, 2015, and July 15, 2016, evaluated the safety, pharmacokinetics (PKs), and acceptability of pod-IVRs delivering 3 different ARV regimens: 1) TDF only, 2) TDF-FTC, and 3) TDF-FTC-MVC over 7 d. The crossover, open-label portion of the trial (N = 6) consisted of 7 d of continuous TDF pod-IVR use, a wash-out phase, and 7 d of continuous TDF-FTC pod-IVR use. After a 3-mo pause to evaluate safety and PK of the TDF and TDF-FTC pod-IVRs, TDF-FTC-MVC pod-IVRs (N = 6) were evaluated over 7 d of continuous use. Safety was assessed by adverse events (AEs), colposcopy, and culture-independent analysis of the vaginal microbiome (VMB). Drug and drug metabolite concentrations in plasma, cervicovaginal fluids (CVFs), cervicovaginal lavages (CVLs), and vaginal tissue (VT) biopsies were determined via liquid chromatographic-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Perceptibility and acceptability were assessed by surveys and interviews. Median participant age was as follows: TDF/TDF-FTC group, 26 y (range 24-35 y), 2 White, 2 Hispanic, and 2 African American; TDF-FTC-MVC group, 24.5 y (range 21-41 y), 3 White, 1 Hispanic, and 2 African American. Reported acceptability was high for all 3 products, and pod-IVR use was confirmed by residual drug levels in used IVRs. There were no serious adverse events (SAEs) during the study. There were 26 AEs reported during TDF/TDF-FTC IVR use (itching, discharge, discomfort), with no differences between TDF alone or in combination with FTC observed. In the TDF-FTC-MVC IVR group, there were 12 AEs (itching, discharge, discomfort) during IVR use regardless of attribution to study product. No epithelial disruption/thinning was seen by colposcopy, and no systematic VMB shifts were observed. Median (IQR) tenofovir diphosphate (TFV-DP) tissue concentrations of 303 (277-938) fmol/10(6) cells (TDF), 289 (110-603) fmol/10(6) cells (TDF-FTC), and 302 (177.1-823.8) fmol/10(6) cells (TDF-FTC-MVC) were sustained for 7 d, exceeding theoretical target concentrations for vaginal HIV prevention. The study's main limitations include the small sample size, short duration (7 d versus 28 d), and the lack of FTC triphosphate measurements in VT biopsies.Conclusions: An innovative pod-IVR delivery device with 3 different formulations delivering different regimens of ARV drugs vaginally appeared to be safe and acceptable and provided drug concentrations in CVFs and tissues exceeding concentrations achieved by highly protective oral dosing, suggesting that efficacy for vaginal HIV PrEP is achievable. These results show that an alternate, more adherence-independent, longer-acting prevention device based on the only FDA-approved PrEP combination regimen can be advanced to safety and efficacy testing.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02431273. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study reports the findings of the first large-scale Phase III investigator-driven clinical trial to slow the rate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer disease with a dihydropyridine (DHP) calcium channel blocker, nilvadipine. Nilvadipine, licensed to treat hypertension, reduces amyloid production, increases regional cerebral blood flow, and has demonstrated anti-inflammatory and anti-tau activity in preclinical studies, properties that could have disease-modifying effects for Alzheimer disease. We aimed to determine if nilvadipine was effective in slowing cognitive decline in subjects with mild to moderate Alzheimer disease.Methods and Findings: NILVAD was an 18-month, randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial that randomised participants between 15 May 2013 and 13 April 2015. The study was conducted at 23 academic centres in nine European countries. Of 577 participants screened, 511 were eligible and were randomised (258 to placebo, 253 to nilvadipine). Participants took a trial treatment capsule once a day after breakfast for 78 weeks. Participants were aged >50 years, meeting National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke/Alzheimer's disease Criteria (NINCDS-ADRDA) for diagnosis of probable Alzheimer disease, with a Standardised Mini-Mental State Examination (SMMSE) score of ≥12 and <27. Participants were randomly assigned to 8 mg sustained-release nilvadipine or matched placebo. The a priori defined primary outcome was progression on the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subscale-12 (ADAS-Cog 12) in the modified intention-to-treat (mITT) population (n = 498), with the Clinical Dementia Rating Scale sum of boxes (CDR-sb) as a gated co-primary outcome, eligible to be promoted to primary end point conditional on a significant effect on the ADAS-Cog 12. The analysis set had a mean age of 73 years and was 62% female. Baseline demographic and Alzheimer disease-specific characteristics were similar between treatment groups, with reported mean of 1.7 years since diagnosis and mean SMMSE of 20.4. The prespecified primary analyses failed to show any treatment benefit for nilvadipine on the co-primary outcome (p = 0.465). Decline from baseline in ADAS-Cog 12 on placebo was 0.79 (95% CI, -0.07-1.64) at 13 weeks, 6.41 (5.33-7.49) at 52 weeks, and 9.63 (8.33-10.93) at 78 weeks and on nilvadipine was 0.88 (0.02-1.74) at 13 weeks, 5.75 (4.66-6.85) at 52 weeks, and 9.41 (8.09-10.73) at 78 weeks. Exploratory analyses of the planned secondary outcomes showed no substantial effects, including on the CDR-sb or the Disability Assessment for Dementia. Nilvadipine appeared to be safe and well tolerated. Mortality was similar between groups (3 on nilvadipine, 4 on placebo); higher counts of adverse events (AEs) on nilvadipine (1,129 versus 1,030), and serious adverse events (SAEs; 146 versus 101), were observed. There were 14 withdrawals because of AEs. Major limitations of this study were that subjects had established dementia and the likelihood that non-Alzheimer subjects were included because of the lack of biomarker confirmation of the presence of brain amyloid.Conclusions: The results do not suggest benefit of nilvadipine as a treatment in a population spanning mild to moderate Alzheimer disease.Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02017340, EudraCT number 2012-002764-27. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: No prior study to our knowledge has examined the joint contribution of a polygenic risk score (PRS), mammographic density (MD), and postmenopausal endogenous hormone levels-all well-confirmed risk factors for invasive breast cancer-to existing breast cancer risk prediction models.Methods and Findings: We conducted a nested case-control study within the prospective Nurses' Health Study and Nurses' Health Study II including 4,006 cases and 7,874 controls ages 34-70 years up to 1 June 2010. We added a breast cancer PRS using 67 single nucleotide polymorphisms, MD, and circulating testosterone, estrone sulfate, and prolactin levels to existing risk models. We calculated area under the curve (AUC), controlling for age and stratified by menopausal status, for the 5-year absolute risk of invasive breast cancer. We estimated the population distribution of 5-year predicted risks for models with and without biomarkers. For the Gail model, the AUC improved (p-values < 0.001) from 55.9 to 64.1 (8.2 units) in premenopausal women (Gail + PRS + MD), from 55.5 to 66.0 (10.5 units) in postmenopausal women not using hormone therapy (HT) (Gail + PRS + MD + all hormones), and from 58.0 to 64.9 (6.9 units) in postmenopausal women using HT (Gail + PRS + MD + prolactin). For the Rosner-Colditz model, the corresponding AUCs improved (p-values < 0.001) by 5.7, 6.2, and 6.5 units. For estrogen-receptor-positive tumors, among postmenopausal women not using HT, the AUCs improved (p-values < 0.001) by 14.3 units for the Gail model and 7.3 units for the Rosner-Colditz model. Additionally, the percentage of 50-year-old women predicted to be at more than twice 5-year average risk (≥2.27%) was 0.2% for the Gail model alone and 6.6% for the Gail + PRS + MD + all hormones model. Limitations of our study included the limited racial/ethnic diversity of our cohort, and that general population exposure distributions were unavailable for some risk factors.Conclusions: In this study, the addition of PRS, MD, and endogenous hormones substantially improved existing breast cancer risk prediction models. Further studies will be needed to confirm these findings and to determine whether improved risk prediction models have practical value in identifying women at higher risk who would most benefit from chemoprevention, screening, and other risk-reducing strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Individuals with criminal histories have high rates of opioid dependence and mortality. Excess mortality is largely attributable to overdose deaths. Methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) is one of the best evidence-based opioid substitution treatments (OSTs), but there is uncertainty about whether methadone treatment reduces the risk of mortality among convicted offenders over extended follow-up periods. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between adherence to MMT and overdose fatality as well as other causes of mortality.Methods and Findings: We conducted a retrospective cohort study involving linked population-level administrative data among individuals in British Columbia (BC), Canada with a history of conviction and who filled a methadone prescription between January 1, 1998 and March 31, 2015. Participants were followed from the date of first-dispensed methadone prescription until censoring (date of death or March 31, 2015). Methadone was divided into medicated (methadone was dispensed) and nonmedicated (methadone was not dispensed) periods and analysed as a time-varying exposure. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs were estimated using multivariable Cox regression to examine mortality during the study period. All-cause and cause-specific mortality rates were compared during medicated and nonmedicated methadone periods. Participants (n = 14,530) had a mean age of 34.5 years, were 71.4% male, and had a median follow-up of 6.9 years. A total of 1,275 participants died during the observation period. The overall all-cause mortality rate was 11.2 per 1,000 person-years (PYs). Participants were significantly less likely to die from both nonexternal (adjusted HR [AHR] 0.27 [95% CI 0.23-0.33]) and external (AHR 0.41 [95% CI 0.33-0.51]) causes during medicated periods, independent of sociodemographic, criminological, and health-related factors. Death due to infectious diseases was 5 times lower (AHR 0.20 [95% CI 0.13-0.30]), and accidental poisoning (overdose) deaths were nearly 3 times lower (AHR 0.39 [95% CI 0.30-0.50]) during medicated periods. A competing risk regression demonstrated a similar pattern of results. The use of a Canadian offender population may limit generalizability of results. Furthermore, our observation period represents community-based methadone prescribing and may omit prescriptions administered during hospital separations. Therefore, the magnitude of the protective effects of methadone from nonexternal causes of death should be interpreted with caution.Conclusions: Adherence to methadone was associated with significantly lower rates of death in a population-level cohort of Canadian convicted offenders. Achieving higher rates of adherence may reduce overdose deaths and other causes of mortality among offenders and similarly marginalized populations. Our findings warrant examination in other study centres in response to the crisis of opiate-involved deaths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: An estimated 32,000 children develop multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB; Mycobacterium tuberculosis resistant to isoniazid and rifampin) each year. Little is known about the optimal treatment for these children.Methods and Findings: To inform the pediatric aspects of the revised World Health Organization (WHO) MDR-TB treatment guidelines, we performed a systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis, describing treatment outcomes in children treated for MDR-TB. To identify eligible reports we searched PubMed, LILACS, Embase, The Cochrane Library, PsychINFO, and BioMedCentral databases through 1 October 2014. To identify unpublished data, we reviewed conference abstracts, contacted experts in the field, and requested data through other routes, including at national and international conferences and through organizations working in pediatric MDR-TB. A cohort was eligible for inclusion if it included a minimum of three children (aged <15 years) who were treated for bacteriologically confirmed or clinically diagnosed MDR-TB, and if treatment outcomes were reported. The search yielded 2,772 reports; after review, 33 studies were eligible for inclusion, with IPD provided for 28 of these. All data were from published or unpublished observational cohorts. We analyzed demographic, clinical, and treatment factors as predictors of treatment outcome. In order to obtain adjusted estimates, we used a random-effects multivariable logistic regression (random intercept and random slope, unless specified otherwise) adjusted for the following covariates: age, sex, HIV infection, malnutrition, severe extrapulmonary disease, or the presence of severe disease on chest radiograph. We analyzed data from 975 children from 18 countries; 731 (75%) had bacteriologically confirmed and 244 (25%) had clinically diagnosed MDR-TB. The median age was 7.1 years. Of 910 (93%) children with documented HIV status, 359 (39%) were infected with HIV. When compared to clinically diagnosed patients, children with confirmed MDR-TB were more likely to be older, to be infected with HIV, to be malnourished, and to have severe tuberculosis (TB) on chest radiograph (p < 0.001 for all characteristics). Overall, 764 of 975 (78%) had a successful treatment outcome at the conclusion of therapy: 548/731 (75%) of confirmed and 216/244 (89%) of clinically diagnosed children (absolute difference 14%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 8%-19%, p < 0.001). Treatment was successful in only 56% of children with bacteriologically confirmed TB who were infected with HIV who did not receive any antiretroviral treatment (ART) during MDR-TB therapy, compared to 82% in children infected with HIV who received ART during MDR-TB therapy (absolute difference 26%, 95% CI 5%-48%, p = 0.006). In children with confirmed MDR-TB, the use of second-line injectable agents and high-dose isoniazid (15-20 mg/kg/day) were associated with treatment success (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.9, 95% CI 1.0-8.3, p = 0.041 and aOR 5.9, 95% CI 1.7-20.5, p = 0.007, respectively). These findings for high-dose isoniazid may have been affected by site effect, as the majority of patients came from Cape Town. Limitations of this study include the difficulty of estimating the treatment effects of individual drugs within multidrug regimens, only observational cohort studies were available for inclusion, and treatment decisions were based on the clinician's perception of illness, with resulting potential for bias.Conclusions: This study suggests that children respond favorably to MDR-TB treatment. The low success rate in children infected with HIV who did not receive ART during their MDR-TB treatment highlights the need for ART in these children. Our findings of individual drug effects on treatment outcome should be further evaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Incomplete adherence to tuberculosis (TB) treatment increases the risk of delayed culture conversion with continued transmission in the community, as well as treatment failure, relapse, and development or amplification of drug resistance. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of adherence interventions, including directly observed therapy (DOT), to determine which approaches lead to improved TB treatment outcomes.Methods and Findings: We systematically reviewed Medline as well as the references of published review articles for relevant studies of adherence to multidrug treatment of both drug-susceptible and drug-resistant TB through February 3, 2018. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) as well as prospective and retrospective cohort studies (CSs) with an internal or external control group that evaluated any adherence intervention and conducted a meta-analysis of their impact on TB treatment outcomes. Our search identified 7,729 articles, of which 129 met the inclusion criteria for quantitative analysis. Seven adherence categories were identified, including DOT offered by different providers and at various locations, reminders and tracers, incentives and enablers, patient education, digital technologies (short message services [SMSs] via mobile phones and video-observed therapy [VOT]), staff education, and combinations of these interventions. When compared with DOT alone, self-administered therapy (SAT) was associated with lower rates of treatment success (CS: risk ratio [RR] 0.81, 95% CI 0.73-0.89; RCT: RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.89-0.98), adherence (CS: RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.75-0.93), and sputum smear conversion (RCT: RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87-0.98) as well as higher rates of development of drug resistance (CS: RR 4.19, 95% CI 2.34-7.49). When compared to DOT provided by healthcare providers, DOT provided by family members was associated with a lower rate of adherence (CS: RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.79-0.94). DOT delivery in the community versus at the clinic was associated with a higher rate of treatment success (CS: RR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01-1.15) and sputum conversion at the end of two months (CS: RR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.08) as well as lower rates of treatment failure (CS: RR 0.56, 95% CI 0.33-0.95) and loss to follow-up (CS: RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.40-0.98). Medication monitors improved adherence and treatment success and VOT was comparable with DOT. SMS reminders led to a higher treatment completion rate in one RCT and were associated with higher rates of cure and sputum conversion when used in combination with medication monitors. TB treatment outcomes improved when patient education, healthcare provider education, incentives and enablers, psychological interventions, reminders and tracers, or mobile digital technologies were employed. Our findings are limited by the heterogeneity of the included studies and lack of standardized research methodology on adherence interventions.Conclusion: TB treatment outcomes are improved with the use of adherence interventions, such as patient education and counseling, incentives and enablers, psychological interventions, reminders and tracers, and digital health technologies. Trained healthcare providers as well as community delivery provides patient-centered DOT options that both enhance adherence and improve treatment outcomes as compared to unsupervised, SAT alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While current research is largely consistent as to the harms of heavy drinking in terms of both cancer incidence and mortality, there are disparate messages regarding the safety of light-moderate alcohol consumption, which may confuse public health messages. We aimed to evaluate the association between average lifetime alcohol intakes and risk of both cancer incidence and mortality.Methods and Findings: We report a population-based cohort study using data from 99,654 adults (68.7% female), aged 55-74 years, participating in the U.S. Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial. Cox proportional hazards models assessed the risk of overall and cause-specific mortality, cancer incidence (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer), and combined risk of cancer and death across categories of self-reported average lifetime alcohol intakes, with adjustment for potential confounders. During 836,740 person-years of follow-up (median 8.9 years), 9,599 deaths and 12,763 primary cancers occurred. Positive linear associations were observed between lifetime alcohol consumption and cancer-related mortality and total cancer incidence. J-shaped associations were observed between average lifetime alcohol consumption and overall mortality, cardiovascular-related mortality, and combined risk of death or cancer. In comparison to lifetime light alcohol drinkers (1-3 drinks per week), lifetime never or infrequent drinkers (<1 drink/week), as well as heavy (2-<3 drinks/day) and very heavy drinkers (3+ drinks/day) had increased overall mortality and combined risk of cancer or death. Corresponding hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for combined risk of cancer or death, respectively, were 1.09 (1.01-1.13) for never drinkers, 1.08 (1.03-1.13) for infrequent drinkers, 1.10 (1.02-1.18) for heavy drinkers, and 1.21 (1.13-1.30) for very heavy drinkers. This analysis is limited to older adults, and residual confounding by socioeconomic factors is possible.Conclusions: The study supports a J-shaped association between alcohol and mortality in older adults, which remains after adjustment for cancer risk. The results indicate that intakes below 1 drink per day were associated with the lowest risk of death.Trial Registration: NCT00339495 (ClinicalTrials.gov). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The fixed dose combination of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) is the most widely used treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Relatively lower cure rates and lumefantrine levels have been reported in young children and in pregnant women during their second and third trimester. The aim of this study was to investigate the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of lumefantrine and the pharmacokinetic properties of its metabolite, desbutyl-lumefantrine, in order to inform optimal dosing regimens in all patient populations.Methods and Findings: A search in PubMed, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, Google Scholar, conference proceedings, and the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) pharmacology database identified 31 relevant clinical studies published between 1 January 1990 and 31 December 2012, with 4,546 patients in whom lumefantrine concentrations were measured. Under the auspices of WWARN, relevant individual concentration-time data, clinical covariates, and outcome data from 4,122 patients were made available and pooled for the meta-analysis. The developed lumefantrine population pharmacokinetic model was used for dose optimisation through in silico simulations. Venous plasma lumefantrine concentrations 7 days after starting standard AL treatment were 24.2% and 13.4% lower in children weighing <15 kg and 15-25 kg, respectively, and 20.2% lower in pregnant women compared with non-pregnant adults. Lumefantrine exposure decreased with increasing pre-treatment parasitaemia, and the dose limitation on absorption of lumefantrine was substantial. Simulations using the lumefantrine pharmacokinetic model suggest that, in young children and pregnant women beyond the first trimester, lengthening the dose regimen (twice daily for 5 days) and, to a lesser extent, intensifying the frequency of dosing (3 times daily for 3 days) would be more efficacious than using higher individual doses in the current standard treatment regimen (twice daily for 3 days). The model was developed using venous plasma data from patients receiving intact tablets with fat, and evaluations of alternative dosing regimens were consequently only representative for venous plasma after administration of intact tablets with fat. The absence of artemether-dihydroartemisinin data limited the prediction of parasite killing rates and recrudescent infections. Thus, the suggested optimised dosing schedule was based on the pharmacokinetic endpoint of lumefantrine plasma exposure at day 7.Conclusions: Our findings suggest that revised AL dosing regimens for young children and pregnant women would improve drug exposure but would require longer or more complex schedules. These dosing regimens should be evaluated in prospective clinical studies to determine whether they would improve cure rates, demonstrate adequate safety, and thereby prolong the useful therapeutic life of this valuable antimalarial treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The majority of people with hypertension require more than one medication to achieve blood pressure control. Many patients are prescribed multipill antihypertensive regimens rather than single-pill fixed-dose combination (FDC) treatment. Although FDC use may improve medication adherence, the impact on patient outcomes is unclear. We compared clinical outcomes and medication adherence with FDC therapy versus multipill combination therapy in a real-world setting using linked clinical and administrative databases.Methods and Findings: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of 13,350 individuals 66 years and older in Ontario, Canada with up to 5 years of follow-up. We included individuals who were newly initiated on one angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) or angiotensin II-receptor blocker (ARB) plus one thiazide diuretic. High-dimensional propensity score matching was used to compare individuals receiving FDC versus multipill therapy. The primary outcome was a composite of death or hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure, or stroke. We conducted 2 analyses to examine the association between adherence and patient outcomes. First, we performed an on-treatment analysis to determine whether outcomes differed between groups while patients were on treatment, censoring patients when they first discontinued treatment, defined as not receiving medications within 150% of the previous days' supply. Second, we conducted an intention-to-treat analysis that followed individuals allowing for breaks in treatment to quantify the difference in drug adherence between groups and assess its impact on clinical outcomes. As expected, there was no significant difference in the primary outcome between groups in the on-treatment analysis (HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.86-1.31, P = 0.60). In the intention-to-treat analysis, the proportion of total follow-up days covered with medications was significantly greater in the FDC group (70%; IQR 19-98) than in the multipill group (42%, IQR 11-91, P < 0.01), and the primary outcome was less frequent in FDC recipients (3.4 versus 3.9 events per 100 person-years; HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.81-0.97, P < 0.01). The main limitations of this study were the lack of data regarding cause of death and blood pressure measurements and the possibility of residual confounding.Conclusions: Among older adults initiating combination antihypertensive treatment, FDC therapy was associated with a significantly lower risk of composite clinical outcomes, which may be related to better medication adherence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tobacco addiction is a complex, multicomponent phenomenon stemming from nicotine's pharmacology and the user's biology, psychology, sociology, and environment. After decades of public denial, the tobacco industry now agrees with public health authorities that nicotine is addictive. In 2000, Philip Morris became the first major tobacco company to admit nicotine's addictiveness. Evolving definitions of addiction have historically affected subsequent policymaking. This article examines how Philip Morris internally conceptualized addiction immediately before and after this announcement.Methods and Findings: We analyzed previously secret, internal Philip Morris documents made available as a result of litigation against the tobacco industry. We compared these documents to public company statements and found that Philip Morris's move from public denial to public affirmation of nicotine's addictiveness coincided with pressure on the industry from poor public approval ratings, the Master Settlement Agreement (MSA), the United States government's filing of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) suit, and the Institute of Medicine's (IoM's) endorsement of potentially reduced risk products. Philip Morris continued to research the causes of addiction through the 2000s in order to create successful potentially reduced exposure products (PREPs). While Philip Morris's public statements reinforce the idea that nicotine's pharmacology principally drives smoking addiction, company scientists framed addiction as the result of interconnected biological, social, psychological, and environmental determinants, with nicotine as but one component. Due to the fragmentary nature of the industry document database, we may have missed relevant information that could have affected our analysis.Conclusions: Philip Morris's research suggests that tobacco industry activity influences addiction treatment outcomes. Beyond nicotine's pharmacology, the industry's continued aggressive advertising, lobbying, and litigation against effective tobacco control policies promotes various nonpharmacological determinants of addiction. To help tobacco users quit, policy makers should increase attention on the social and environmental dimensions of addiction alongside traditional cessation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite repeated outbreaks, in particular the devastating 2014-2016 epidemic, there is no effective treatment validated for patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD). Among the drug candidates is the broad-spectrum polymerase inhibitor favipiravir, which showed a good tolerance profile in patients with EVD (JIKI trial) but did not demonstrate a strong antiviral efficacy. In order to gain new insights into the antiviral efficacy of favipiravir and improve preparedness and public health management of future outbreaks, we assess the efficacy achieved by ascending doses of favipiravir in Ebola-virus-infected nonhuman primates (NHPs).Methods and Findings: A total of 26 animals (Macaca fascicularis) were challenged intramuscularly at day 0 with 1,000 focus-forming units of Ebola virus Gabon 2001 strain and followed for 21 days (study termination). This included 13 animals left untreated and 13 treated with doses of 100, 150, and 180 mg/kg (N = 3, 5, and 5, respectively) favipiravir administered intravenously twice a day for 14 days, starting 2 days before infection. All animals left untreated or treated with 100 mg/kg died within 10 days post-infection, while animals receiving 150 and 180 mg/kg had extended survival (P < 0.001 and 0.001, respectively, compared to untreated animals), leading to a survival rate of 40% (2/5) and 60% (3/5), respectively, at day 21. Favipiravir inhibited viral replication (molecular and infectious viral loads) in a drug-concentration-dependent manner (P values < 0.001), and genomic deep sequencing analyses showed an increase in virus mutagenesis over time. These results allowed us to identify that plasma trough favipiravir concentrations greater than 70-80 μg/ml were associated with reduced viral loads, lower virus infectivity, and extended survival. These levels are higher than those found in the JIKI trial, where patients had median trough drug concentrations equal to 46 and 26 μg/ml at day 2 and day 4 post-treatment, respectively, and suggest that the dosing regimen in the JIKI trial was suboptimal. The environment of a biosafety level 4 laboratory introduces a number of limitations, in particular the difficulty of conducting blind studies and performing detailed pharmacological assessments. Further, the extrapolation of the results to patients with EVD is limited by the fact that the model is fully lethal and that treatment initiation in patients with EVD is most often initiated several days after infection, when symptoms and high levels of viral replication are already present.Conclusions: Our results suggest that favipiravir may be an effective antiviral drug against Ebola virus that relies on RNA chain termination and possibly error catastrophe. These results, together with previous data collected on tolerance and pharmacokinetics in both NHPs and humans, support a potential role for high doses of favipiravir for future human interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a Perspective, M. Afran Ikram and Maarten Leening discuss the evolving approaches to determining cardiovascular risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Clinical practice guidelines have traditionally recommended blood pressure treatment based primarily on blood pressure thresholds. In contrast, using predicted cardiovascular risk has been advocated as a more effective strategy to guide treatment decisions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. We aimed to compare outcomes from a blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk with one based on systolic blood pressure (SBP) level.Methods and Findings: We used individual participant data from the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (BPLTTC) from 1995 to 2013. Trials randomly assigned participants to either blood pressure-lowering drugs versus placebo or more intensive versus less intensive blood pressure-lowering regimens. We estimated 5-y risk of CVD events using a multivariable Weibull model previously developed in this dataset. We compared the two strategies at specific SBP thresholds and across the spectrum of risk and blood pressure levels studied in BPLTTC trials. The primary outcome was number of CVD events avoided per persons treated. We included data from 11 trials (47,872 participants). During a median of 4.0 y of follow-up, 3,566 participants (7.5%) experienced a major cardiovascular event. Areas under the curve comparing the two treatment strategies throughout the range of possible thresholds for CVD risk and SBP demonstrated that, on average, a greater number of CVD events would be avoided for a given number of persons treated with the CVD risk strategy compared with the SBP strategy (area under the curve 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.72] for the CVD risk strategy versus 0.54 [95% CI 0.53-0.55] for the SBP strategy). Compared with treating everyone with SBP ≥ 150 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 29% (95% CI 26%-31%) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 16% (95% CI 14%-18%) more events for the same number of persons treated. Compared with treating everyone with SBP ≥ 140 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 3.8% (95% CI 12.5% fewer to 7.2% more) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 3.1% (95% CI 1.5%-5.0%) more events for the same number of persons treated, although the former estimate was not statistically significant. In subgroup analyses, the CVD risk strategy did not appear to be more beneficial than the SBP strategy in patients with diabetes mellitus or established CVD.Conclusions: A blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk is more effective than one based on blood pressure levels alone across a range of thresholds. These results support using cardiovascular risk assessment to guide blood pressure treatment decision-making in moderate- to high-risk individuals, particularly for primary prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with substantial morbidity, in particular stroke. Despite good evidence for the reduction of stroke risk with anticoagulant therapy, there remains significant undertreatment. The main aim of the current study was to investigate whether a clinical decision support tool (CDS) for stroke prevention integrated in the electronic health record could improve adherence to guidelines for stroke prevention in patients with AF.Methods and Findings: We conducted a cluster-randomized trial where all 43 primary care clinics in the county of Östergötland, Sweden (population 444,347), were randomized to be part of the CDS intervention or to serve as controls. The CDS produced an alert for physicians responsible for patients with AF and at increased risk for thromboembolism (according to the CHA2DS2-VASc algorithm) without anticoagulant therapy. The primary endpoint was adherence to guidelines after 1 year. After randomization, there were 22 and 21 primary care clinics in the CDS and control groups, respectively. There were no significant differences in baseline adherence to guidelines regarding anticoagulant therapy between the 2 groups (CDS group 70.3% [5,186/7,370; 95% CI 62.9%-77.7%], control group 70.0% [4,187/6,009; 95% CI 60.4%-79.6%], p = 0.83). After 12 months, analysis with linear regression with adjustment for primary care clinic size and adherence to guidelines at baseline revealed a significant increase in guideline adherence in the CDS (73.0%, 95% CI 64.6%-81.4%) versus the control group (71.2%, 95% CI 60.8%-81.6%, p = 0.013, with a treatment effect estimate of 0.016 [95% CI 0.003-0.028]; number of patients with AF included in the final analysis 8,292 and 6,508 in the CDS and control group, respectively). Over the study period, there was no difference in the incidence of stroke, transient ischemic attack, or systemic thromboembolism in the CDS group versus the control group (49 [95% CI 43-55] per 1,000 patients with AF in the CDS group compared to 47 [95% CI 39-55] per 1,000 patients with AF in the control group, p = 0.64). Regarding safety, the CDS group had a lower incidence of significant bleeding, with events in 12 (95% CI 9-15) per 1,000 patients with AF compared to 16 (95% CI 12-20) per 1,000 patients with AF in the control group (p = 0.04). Limitations of the study design include that the analysis was carried out in a catchment area with a high baseline adherence rate, and issues regarding reproducibility to other regions.Conclusions: The present study demonstrates that a CDS can increase guideline adherence for anticoagulant therapy in patients with AF. Even though the observed difference was small, this is the first randomized study to our knowledge indicating beneficial effects with a CDS in patients with AF.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02635685. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pragna Patel and colleagues describe the implementation of a hypertension management model for HIV-infected people in Malawi. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this month's editorial, the PLOS Medicine Editors discuss the challenges of addressing a growing population with Alzheimer disease and dementia amidst disappointing news from the pharmaceutical industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pediatric Phase I cancer trials are critical for establishing the safety and dosing of anti-cancer treatments in children. Their implementation, however, must contend with the rarity of many pediatric cancers and limits on allowable risk in minors. The aim of this study is to describe the risk and benefit for pediatric cancer Phase I trials.Methods and Findings: Our protocol was prospectively registered in PROSPERO (CRD42015015961). We systematically searched Embase and PubMed for solid and hematological malignancy Phase I pediatric trials published between 1 January 2004 and 1 March 2015. We included pediatric cancer Phase I studies, defined as "small sample size, non‑randomized, dose escalation studies that defined the recommended dose for subsequent study of a new drug in each schedule tested." We measured risk using grade 3, 4, and 5 (fatal) drug-related adverse events (AEs) and benefit using objective response rates. When possible, data were meta-analyzed. We identified 170 studies meeting our eligibility criteria, accounting for 4,604 patients. The pooled overall objective response rate was 10.29% (95% CI 8.33% to 12.25%), and was lower in solid tumors, 3.17% (95% CI 2.62% to 3.72%), compared with hematological malignancies, 27.90% (95% CI 20.53% to 35.27%); p < 0.001. The overall fatal (grade 5) AE rate was 2.09% (95% CI 1.45% to 2.72%). Across the 4,604 evaluated patients, there were 4,675 grade 3 and 4 drug-related AEs, with an average grade 3/4 AE rate per person equal to 1.32. Our study had the following limitations: trials included in our review were heterogeneous (to minimize heterogeneity, we separated types of therapy and cancer types), and we relied on published data only and encountered challenges with the quality of reporting.Conclusions: Our meta-analysis suggests that, on the whole, AE and response rates in pediatric Phase I trials are similar to those in adult Phase I trials. Our findings provide an empirical basis for the refinement and review of pediatric Phase I trials, and for communication about their risk and benefit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Agitation is a common, challenging symptom affecting large numbers of people with dementia and impacting on quality of life (QoL). There is an urgent need for evidence-based, cost-effective psychosocial interventions to improve these outcomes, particularly in the absence of safe, effective pharmacological therapies. This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of a person-centred care and psychosocial intervention incorporating an antipsychotic review, WHELD, on QoL, agitation, and antipsychotic use in people with dementia living in nursing homes, and to determine its cost.Methods and Findings: This was a randomised controlled cluster trial conducted between 1 January 2013 and 30 September 2015 that compared the WHELD intervention with treatment as usual (TAU) in people with dementia living in 69 UK nursing homes, using an intention to treat analysis. All nursing homes allocated to the intervention received staff training in person-centred care and social interaction and education regarding antipsychotic medications (antipsychotic review), followed by ongoing delivery through a care staff champion model. The primary outcome measure was QoL (DEMQOL-Proxy). Secondary outcomes were agitation (Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory [CMAI]), neuropsychiatric symptoms (Neuropsychiatric Inventory-Nursing Home Version [NPI-NH]), antipsychotic use, global deterioration (Clinical Dementia Rating), mood (Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia), unmet needs (Camberwell Assessment of Need for the Elderly), mortality, quality of interactions (Quality of Interactions Scale [QUIS]), pain (Abbey Pain Scale), and cost. Costs were calculated using cost function figures compared with usual costs. In all, 847 people were randomised to WHELD or TAU, of whom 553 completed the 9-month randomised controlled trial. The intervention conferred a statistically significant improvement in QoL (DEMQOL-Proxy Z score 2.82, p = 0.0042; mean difference 2.54, SEM 0.88; 95% CI 0.81, 4.28; Cohen's D effect size 0.24). There were also statistically significant benefits in agitation (CMAI Z score 2.68, p = 0.0076; mean difference 4.27, SEM 1.59; 95% CI -7.39, -1.15; Cohen's D 0.23) and overall neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPI-NH Z score 3.52, p < 0.001; mean difference 4.55, SEM 1.28; 95% CI -7.07,-2.02; Cohen's D 0.30). Benefits were greatest in people with moderately severe dementia. There was a statistically significant benefit in positive care interactions as measured by QUIS (19.7% increase, SEM 8.94; 95% CI 2.12, 37.16, p = 0.03; Cohen's D 0.55). There were no statistically significant differences between WHELD and TAU for the other outcomes. A sensitivity analysis using a pre-specified imputation model confirmed statistically significant benefits in DEMQOL-Proxy, CMAI, and NPI-NH outcomes with the WHELD intervention. Antipsychotic drug use was at a low stable level in both treatment groups, and the intervention did not reduce use. The WHELD intervention reduced cost compared to TAU, and the benefits achieved were therefore associated with a cost saving. The main limitation was that antipsychotic review was based on augmenting processes within care homes to trigger medical review and did not in this study involve proactive primary care education. An additional limitation was the inherent challenge of assessing QoL in this patient group.Conclusions: These findings suggest that the WHELD intervention confers benefits in terms of QoL, agitation, and neuropsychiatric symptoms, albeit with relatively small effect sizes, as well as cost saving in a model that can readily be implemented in nursing homes. Future work should consider how to facilitate sustainability of the intervention in this setting.Trial Registration: ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN62237498. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an Editorial accompanying PLOS Medicine's Special Issue on Advances in Prevention, Treatment and Cure of HIV/AIDS, Guest Editors Steven Deeks, Sharon Lewin, and Linda-Gail Bekker discuss priorities in the field and the content of the issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent in vitro and animal studies have found the proton pump inhibitor (PPI) lansoprazole to be highly active against Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Omeprazole and pantoprazole have no activity. There is no evidence that, in clinical practice, lansoprazole can treat or prevent incident tuberculosis (TB) disease.Methods and Findings: We studied a cohort of new users of lansoprazole, omeprazole, or pantoprazole from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink to determine whether lansoprazole users have a lower incidence of TB disease than omeprazole or pantoprazole users. Negative control outcomes of myocardial infarction (MI) and herpes zoster were also studied. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to adjust for potential confounding by a wide range of factors. We identified 527,364 lansoprazole initiators and 923,500 omeprazole or pantoprazole initiators. Lansoprazole users had a lower rate of TB disease (n = 86; 10.0 cases per 100,000 person years; 95% confidence interval 8.1-12.4) than omeprazole or pantoprazole users (n = 193; 15.3 cases per 100,000 person years; 95% confidence interval 13.3-17.7), with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 0.68 (0.52-0.89). No association was found with MI (adjusted HR 1.04; 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.08) or herpes zoster (adjusted HR 1.03; 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.06). Limitations of this study are that we could not determine whether TB disease was due to reactivation of latent infection or a result of recent transmission, nor could we determine whether lansoprazole would have a beneficial effect if given to people presenting with TB disease.Conclusions: In this study, use of the commonly prescribed and cheaply available PPI lansoprazole was associated with reduced incidence of TB disease. Given the serious problem of drug resistance and the adverse side effect profiles of many TB drugs, further investigation of lansoprazole as a potential antituberculosis agent is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent research indicates a favourable influence of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) if initiated early, but not late, on subclinical atherosclerosis. However, the clinical relevance of timing of HT initiation for hard end points such as stroke remains to be determined. Further, no previous research has considered the timing of initiation of HT in relation to haemorrhagic stroke risk. The importance of the route of administration, type, active ingredient, and duration of HT for stroke risk is also unclear. We aimed to assess the association between HT and risk of stroke, considering the timing of initiation, route of administration, type, active ingredient, and duration of HT.Methods and Findings: Data on HT use reported by the participants in 5 population-based Swedish cohort studies, with baseline investigations performed during the period 1987-2002, were combined in this observational study. In total, 88,914 postmenopausal women who reported data on HT use and had no previous cardiovascular disease diagnosis were included. Incident events of stroke (ischaemic, haemorrhagic, or unspecified) and haemorrhagic stroke were identified from national population registers. Laplace regression was employed to assess crude and multivariable-adjusted associations between HT and stroke risk by estimating percentile differences (PDs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The fifth and first PDs were calculated for stroke and haemorrhagic stroke, respectively. Crude models were adjusted for age at baseline only. The final adjusted models included age at baseline, level of education, smoking status, body mass index, level of physical activity, and age at menopause onset. Additional variables evaluated for potential confounding were type of menopause, parity, use of oral contraceptives, alcohol consumption, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, diabetes, family history of cardiovascular disease, and cohort. During a median follow-up of 14.3 years, 6,371 first-time stroke events were recorded; of these, 1,080 were haemorrhagic. Following multivariable adjustment, early initiation (<5 years since menopause onset) of HT was associated with a longer stroke-free period than never use (fifth PD, 1.00 years; 95% CI 0.42 to 1.57), but there was no significant extension to the time period free of haemorrhagic stroke (first PD, 1.52 years; 95% CI -0.32 to 3.37). When considering timing as a continuous variable, the stroke-free and the haemorrhagic stroke-free periods were maximal if HT was initiated approximately 0-5 years from the onset of menopause. If single conjugated equine oestrogen HT was used, late initiation of HT was associated with a shorter stroke-free (fifth PD, -4.41 years; 95% CI -7.14 to -1.68) and haemorrhagic stroke-free (first PD, -9.51 years; 95% CI -12.77 to -6.24) period than never use. Combined HT when initiated late was significantly associated with a shorter haemorrhagic stroke-free period (first PD, -1.97 years; 95% CI -3.81 to -0.13), but not with a shorter stroke-free period (fifth PD, -1.21 years; 95% CI -3.11 to 0.68) than never use. Given the observational nature of this study, the possibility of uncontrolled confounding cannot be excluded. Further, immortal time bias, also related to the observational design, cannot be ruled out.Conclusions: When initiated early in relation to menopause onset, HT was not associated with increased risk of incident stroke, regardless of the route of administration, type of HT, active ingredient, and duration. Generally, these findings held also for haemorrhagic stroke. Our results suggest that the initiation of HT 0-5 years after menopause onset, as compared to never use, is associated with a decreased risk of stroke and haemorrhagic stroke. Late initiation was associated with elevated risks of stroke and haemorrhagic stroke when conjugated equine oestrogen was used as single therapy. Late initiation of combined HT was associated with haemorrhagic stroke risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although WHO recommends viral load (VL) monitoring for those on antiretroviral therapy (ART), availability in low-income countries remains limited. We investigated long-term VL and resistance in HIV-infected children managed without real-time VL monitoring.Methods and Findings: In the ARROW factorial trial, 1,206 children initiating ART in Uganda and Zimbabwe between 15 March 2007 and 18 November 2008, aged a median 6 years old, with median CD4% of 12%, were randomised to monitoring with or without 12-weekly CD4 counts and to receive 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (2NRTI, mainly abacavir+lamivudine) with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) or 3 NRTIs as long-term ART. All children had VL assayed retrospectively after a median of 4 years on ART; those with >1,000 copies/ml were genotyped. Three hundred and sixteen children had VL and genotypes assayed longitudinally (at least every 24 weeks). Overall, 67 (6%) switched to second-line ART and 54 (4%) died. In children randomised to WHO-recommended 2NRTI+NNRTI long-term ART, 308/378 (81%) monitored with CD4 counts versus 297/375 (79%) without had VL <1,000 copies/ml at 4 years (difference = +2.3% [95% CI -3.4% to +8.0%]; P = 0.43), with no evidence of differences in intermediate/high-level resistance to 11 drugs. Among children with longitudinal VLs, only 5% of child-time post-week 24 was spent with persistent low-level viraemia (80-5,000 copies/ml) and 10% with VL rebound ≥5,000 copies/ml. No child resuppressed <80 copies/ml after confirmed VL rebound ≥5,000 copies/ml. A median of 1.0 (IQR 0.0,1.5) additional NRTI mutation accumulated over 2 years' rebound. Nineteen out of 48 (40%) VLs 1,000-5,000 copies/ml were immediately followed by resuppression <1,000 copies/ml, but only 17/155 (11%) VLs ≥5,000 copies/ml resuppressed (P < 0.0001). Main study limitations are that analyses were exploratory and treatment initiation used 2006 criteria, without pre-ART genotypes.Conclusions: In this study, children receiving first-line ART in sub-Saharan Africa without real-time VL monitoring had good virological and resistance outcomes over 4 years, regardless of CD4 monitoring strategy. Many children with detectable low-level viraemia spontaneously resuppressed, highlighting the importance of confirming virological failure before switching to second-line therapy. Children experiencing rebound ≥5,000 copies/ml were much less likely to resuppress, but NRTI resistance increased only slowly. These results are relevant to the increasing numbers of HIV-infected children receiving first-line ART in sub-Saharan Africa with limited access to virological monitoring.Trial Registration: ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN24791884. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]