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Background: Little is known about how adverse events are summarised and reported in trials, as detailed information is usually considered confidential. We have acquired clinical study reports (CSRs) from the European Medicines Agency through the Freedom of Information Act. The CSRs describe the results of studies conducted as part of the application for marketing authorisation for the slimming pill orlistat. The purpose of this study was to study how adverse events were summarised and reported in study protocols, CSRs, and published papers of orlistat trials.Methods and Findings: We received the CSRs from seven randomised placebo controlled orlistat trials (4,225 participants) submitted by Roche. The CSRs consisted of 8,716 pages and included protocols. Two researchers independently extracted data on adverse events from protocols and CSRs. Corresponding published papers were identified on PubMed and adverse event data were extracted from this source as well. All three sources were compared. Individual adverse events from one trial were summed and compared to the totals in the summary report. None of the protocols or CSRs contained instructions for investigators on how to question participants about adverse events. In CSRs, gastrointestinal adverse events were only coded if the participant reported that they were "bothersome," a condition that was not specified in the protocol for two of the trials. Serious adverse events were assessed for relationship to the drug by the sponsor, and all adverse events were coded by the sponsor using a glossary that could be updated by the sponsor. The criteria for withdrawal due to adverse events were in one case related to efficacy (high fasting glucose led to withdrawal), which meant that one trial had more withdrawals due to adverse events in the placebo group. Finally, only between 3% and 33% of the total number of investigator-reported adverse events from the trials were reported in the publications because of post hoc filters, though six of seven papers stated that "all adverse events were recorded." For one trial, we identified an additional 1,318 adverse events that were not listed or mentioned in the CSR itself but could be identified through manually counting individual adverse events reported in an appendix. We discovered that the majority of patients had multiple episodes of the same adverse event that were only counted once, though this was not described in the CSRs. We also discovered that participants treated with orlistat experienced twice as many days with adverse events as participants treated with placebo (22.7 d versus 14.9 d, p-value < 0.0001, Student's t test). Furthermore, compared with the placebo group, adverse events in the orlistat group were more severe. None of this was stated in the CSR or in the published paper. Our analysis was restricted to one drug tested in the mid-1990s; our results might therefore not be applicable for newer drugs.Conclusions: In the orlistat trials, we identified important disparities in the reporting of adverse events between protocols, clinical study reports, and published papers. Reports of these trials seemed to have systematically understated adverse events. Based on these findings, systematic reviews of drugs might be improved by including protocols and CSRs in addition to published articles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We performed a systematic review to assess whether we can quantify the underreporting of adverse events (AEs) in the published medical literature documenting the results of clinical trials as compared with other nonpublished sources, and whether we can measure the impact this underreporting has on systematic reviews of adverse events.Methods and Findings: Studies were identified from 15 databases (including MEDLINE and Embase) and by handsearching, reference checking, internet searches, and contacting experts. The last database searches were conducted in July 2016. There were 28 methodological evaluations that met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 9 studies compared the proportion of trials reporting adverse events by publication status. The median percentage of published documents with adverse events information was 46% compared to 95% in the corresponding unpublished documents. There was a similar pattern with unmatched studies, for which 43% of published studies contained adverse events information compared to 83% of unpublished studies. A total of 11 studies compared the numbers of adverse events in matched published and unpublished documents. The percentage of adverse events that would have been missed had each analysis relied only on the published versions varied between 43% and 100%, with a median of 64%. Within these 11 studies, 24 comparisons of named adverse events such as death, suicide, or respiratory adverse events were undertaken. In 18 of the 24 comparisons, the number of named adverse events was higher in unpublished than published documents. Additionally, 2 other studies demonstrated that there are substantially more types of adverse events reported in matched unpublished than published documents. There were 20 meta-analyses that reported the odds ratios (ORs) and/or risk ratios (RRs) for adverse events with and without unpublished data. Inclusion of unpublished data increased the precision of the pooled estimates (narrower 95% confidence intervals) in 15 of the 20 pooled analyses, but did not markedly change the direction or statistical significance of the risk in most cases. The main limitations of this review are that the included case examples represent only a small number amongst thousands of meta-analyses of harms and that the included studies may suffer from publication bias, whereby substantial differences between published and unpublished data are more likely to be published.Conclusions: There is strong evidence that much of the information on adverse events remains unpublished and that the number and range of adverse events is higher in unpublished than in published versions of the same study. The inclusion of unpublished data can also reduce the imprecision of pooled effect estimates during meta-analysis of adverse events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

John Ioannidis argues that problem base, context placement, information gain, pragmatism, patient centeredness, value for money, feasibility, and transparency define useful clinical research. He suggests most clinical research is not useful and reform is overdue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the good clinical laboratory practice (GCLP) guidelines for phase I-III clinical trials. It proposes a standardized interpretation of the four GCLP critical elements for optimal management of clinical laboratory operations. It aims to raise public awareness on the need for standardization of GCLP for clinical laboratory operations.

The article discusses various reports published within the issue, including the campaign to decrease childhood diarrhea through solar drinking water disinfection, the study on the doubled risk of hospitalization for bradycardia in older people and the research on ClinicalTrials.gov, an international registry for clinical trials.

Christian Lienhardt and colleagues discuss the importance of communication and coordination between regulators, researchers, and policy makers to ensure tuberculosis trials provide high-quality evidence for policy decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There has been a growing interest in understanding the effects of social networks on health-related behaviour, with a particular backdrop being the emerging prominence of complexity or systems science in public health. Social network interventions specifically use or alter the characteristics of social networks to generate, accelerate, or maintain health behaviours. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate health behaviour outcomes of social network interventions.Methods and Findings: We searched eight databases and two trial registries from 1990 to May 28, 2019, for English-language reports of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and before-and-after studies investigating social network interventions for health behaviours and outcomes. Trials that did not specifically use social networks or that did not include a comparator group were excluded. We screened studies and extracted data from published reports independently. The primary outcome of health behaviours or outcomes at ≤6 months was assessed by random-effects meta-analysis. Secondary outcomes included those measures at >6-12 months and >12 months. This study is registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews, PROSPERO: CRD42015023541. We identified 26,503 reports; after exclusion, 37 studies, conducted between 1996 and 2018 from 11 countries, were eligible for analysis, with a total of 53,891 participants (mean age 32.4 years [SD 12.7]; 45.5% females). A range of study designs were included: 27 used RCT/cluster RCT designs, and 10 used other study designs. Eligible studies addressed a variety of health outcomes, in particular sexual health and substance use. Social network interventions showed a significant intervention effect compared with comparator groups for sexual health outcomes. The pooled odds ratio (OR) was 1.46 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-2.11; I2 = 76%) for sexual health outcomes at ≤6 months and OR 1.51 (95% CI 1.27-1.81; I2 = 40%) for sexual health outcomes at >6-12 months. Intervention effects for drug risk outcomes at each time point were not significant. There were also significant intervention effects for some other health outcomes including alcohol misuse, well-being, change in haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), and smoking cessation. Because of clinical and measurement heterogeneity, it was not appropriate to pool data on these other behaviours in a meta-analysis. For sexual health outcomes, prespecified subgroup analyses were significant for intervention approach (p < 0.001), mean age of participants (p = 0.002), and intervention length (p = 0.05). Overall, 22 of the 37 studies demonstrated a high risk of bias, as measured by the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. The main study limitations identified were the inclusion of studies of variable quality; difficulty in isolating the effects of specific social network intervention components on health outcomes, as interventions included other active components; and reliance on self-reported outcomes, which have inherent recall and desirability biases.Conclusions: Our findings suggest that social network interventions can be effective in the short term (<6 months) and longer term (>6 months) for sexual health outcomes. Intervention effects for drug risk outcomes at each time point were not significant. There were also significant intervention effects for some other health outcomes including alcohol misuse, well-being, change in HbA1c, and smoking cessation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amita Gupta and colleagues discuss priorities in clinical research aimed at improving tuberculosis prevention and treatment in pregnant women, children, and people with HIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geraint Davies and colleagues discuss the potential for innovative early-phase clinical trial methods and technologies to reduce risk and speed up drug development for tuberculosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have suggested that maternal vitamin D (25[OH]D) and calcium supplementation increase birth weight. However, limitations of many trials were highlighted in the reviews. Our aim was to combine genetic and RCT data to estimate causal effects of these two maternal traits on offspring birth weight.Methods and Findings: We performed two-sample mendelian randomisation (MR) using genetic instrumental variables associated with 25(OH)D and calcium that had been identified in genome-wide association studies (GWAS; sample 1; N = 122,123 for 25[OH]D and N = 61,275 for calcium). Associations between these maternal genetic variants and offspring birth weight were calculated in the UK Biobank (UKB) (sample 2; N = 190,406). We used data on mother-child pairs from two United Kingdom birth cohorts (combined N = 5,223) in sensitivity analyses to check whether results were influenced by fetal genotype, which is correlated with the maternal genotype (r ≈ 0.5). Further sensitivity analyses to test the reliability of the results included MR-Egger, weighted-median estimator, 'leave-one-out', and multivariable MR analyses. We triangulated MR results with those from RCTs, in which we used randomisation to supplementation with vitamin D (24 RCTs, combined N = 5,276) and calcium (6 RCTs, combined N = 543) as an instrumental variable to determine the effects of 25(OH)D and calcium on birth weight. In the main MR analysis, there was no strong evidence of an effect of maternal 25(OH)D on birth weight (difference in mean birth weight -0.03 g [95% CI -2.48 to 2.42 g, p = 0.981] per 10% higher maternal 25[OH]D). The effect estimate was consistent across our MR sensitivity analyses. Instrumental variable analyses applied to RCTs suggested a weak positive causal effect (5.94 g [95% CI 2.15-9.73, p = 0.002] per 10% higher maternal 25[OH]D), but this result may be exaggerated because of risk of bias in the included RCTs. The main MR analysis for maternal calcium also suggested no strong evidence of an effect on birth weight (-20 g [95% CI -44 to 5 g, p = 0.116] per 1 SD higher maternal calcium level). Some sensitivity analyses suggested that the genetic instrument for calcium was associated with birth weight via exposures that are independent of calcium levels (horizontal pleiotropy). Application of instrumental variable analyses to RCTs suggested that calcium has a substantial effect on birth weight (178 g [95% CI 121-236 g, p = 1.43 × 10-9] per 1 SD higher maternal calcium level) that was not consistent with any of the MR results. However, the RCT instrumental variable estimate may have been exaggerated because of risk of bias in the included RCTs. Other study limitations include the low response rate of UK Biobank, which may bias MR estimates, and the lack of suitable data to test whether the effects of genetic instruments on maternal calcium levels during pregnancy were the same as those outside of pregnancy.Conclusions: Our results suggest that maternal circulating 25(OH)D does not influence birth weight in otherwise healthy newborns. However, the effect of maternal circulating calcium on birth weight is unclear and requires further exploration with more research including RCT and/or MR analyses with more valid instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Low-grade gliomas cause significant neurological morbidity by brain invasion. There is no universally accepted objective technique available for detection of enlargement of low-grade gliomas in the clinical setting; subjective evaluation by clinicians using visual comparison of longitudinal radiological studies is the gold standard. The aim of this study is to determine whether a computer-assisted diagnosis (CAD) method helps physicians detect earlier growth of low-grade gliomas.Methods and Findings: We reviewed 165 patients diagnosed with grade 2 gliomas, seen at the University of Alabama at Birmingham clinics from 1 July 2017 to 14 May 2018. MRI scans were collected during the spring and summer of 2018. Fifty-six gliomas met the inclusion criteria, including 19 oligodendrogliomas, 26 astrocytomas, and 11 mixed gliomas in 30 males and 26 females with a mean age of 48 years and a range of follow-up of 150.2 months (difference between highest and lowest values). None received radiation therapy. We also studied 7 patients with an imaging abnormality without pathological diagnosis, who were clinically stable at the time of retrospective review (14 May 2018). This study compared growth detection by 7 physicians aided by the CAD method with retrospective clinical reports. The tumors of 63 patients (56 + 7) in 627 MRI scans were digitized, including 34 grade 2 gliomas with radiological progression and 22 radiologically stable grade 2 gliomas. The CAD method consisted of tumor segmentation, computing volumes, and pointing to growth by the online abrupt change-of-point method, which considers only past measurements. Independent scientists have evaluated the segmentation method. In 29 of the 34 patients with progression, the median time to growth detection was only 14 months for CAD compared to 44 months for current standard of care radiological evaluation (p < 0.001). Using CAD, accurate detection of tumor enlargement was possible with a median of only 57% change in the tumor volume as compared to a median of 174% change of volume necessary to diagnose tumor growth using standard of care clinical methods (p < 0.001). In the radiologically stable group, CAD facilitated growth detection in 13 out of 22 patients. CAD did not detect growth in the imaging abnormality group. The main limitation of this study was its retrospective design; nevertheless, the results depict the current state of a gold standard in clinical practice that allowed a significant increase in tumor volumes from baseline before detection. Such large increases in tumor volume would not be permitted in a prospective design. The number of glioma patients (n = 56) is a limitation; however, it is equivalent to the number of patients in phase II clinical trials.Conclusions: The current practice of visual comparison of longitudinal MRI scans is associated with significant delays in detecting growth of low-grade gliomas. Our findings support the idea that physicians aided by CAD detect growth at significantly smaller volumes than physicians using visual comparison alone. This study does not answer the questions whether to treat or not and which treatment modality is optimal. Nonetheless, early growth detection sets the stage for future clinical studies that address these questions and whether early therapeutic interventions prolong survival and improve quality of life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Treatment decision-making regarding immunosuppressive therapy is challenging for individuals with lupus. We assessed the effectiveness of a decision aid for immunosuppressive therapy in lupus nephritis.Methods and Findings: In a United States multicenter, open-label, randomized controlled trial (RCT), adult women with lupus nephritis, mostly from racial/ethnic minority backgrounds with low socioeconomic status (SES), seen in in- or outpatient settings, were randomized to an individualized, culturally tailored, computerized decision aid versus American College of Rheumatology (ACR) lupus pamphlet (1:1 ratio), using computer-generated randomization. We hypothesized that the co-primary outcomes of decisional conflict and informed choice regarding immunosuppressive medications would improve more in the decision aid group. Of 301 randomized women, 298 were analyzed; 47% were African-American, 26% Hispanic, and 15% white. Mean age (standard deviation [SD]) was 37 (12) years, 57% had annual income of <$40,000, and 36% had a high school education or less. Compared with the provision of the ACR lupus pamphlet (n = 147), participants randomized to the decision aid (n = 151) had (1) a clinically meaningful and statistically significant reduction in decisional conflict, 21.8 (standard error [SE], 2.5) versus 12.7 (SE, 2.0; p = 0.005) and (2) no difference in informed choice in the main analysis, 41% versus 31% (p = 0.08), but clinically meaningful and statistically significant difference in sensitivity analysis (net values for immunosuppressives positive [in favor] versus negative [against]), 50% versus 35% (p = 0.006). Unresolved decisional conflict was lower in the decision aid versus pamphlet groups, 22% versus 44% (p < 0.001). Significantly more patients in the decision aid versus pamphlet group rated information to be excellent for understanding lupus nephritis (49% versus 33%), risk factors (43% versus 27%), medication options (50% versus 33%; p ≤ 0.003 for all); and the ease of use of materials was higher in the decision aid versus pamphlet groups (51% versus 38%; p = 0.006). Key study limitations were the exclusion of men, short follow-up, and the lack of clinical outcomes, including medication adherence.Conclusions: An individualized decision aid was more effective than usual care in reducing decisional conflict for choice of immunosuppressive medications in women with lupus nephritis.Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02319525. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a Collection Review, Patrick Phillips and colleagues discuss developments in clinical trial design for the evaluation of TB therapeutics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Christian Lienhardt and Payam Nahid launch the Collection on Advances in Clinical Trial Design for Development of New Tuberculosis Treatments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Psoriasis is a common inflammatory skin disease that has been reported to be associated with obesity. We aimed to investigate a possible causal relationship between body mass index (BMI) and psoriasis.Methods and Findings: Following a review of published epidemiological evidence of the association between obesity and psoriasis, mendelian randomization (MR) was used to test for a causal relationship with BMI. We used a genetic instrument comprising 97 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with BMI as a proxy for BMI (expected to be much less confounded than measured BMI). One-sample MR was conducted using individual-level data (396,495 individuals) from the UK Biobank and the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT), Norway. Two-sample MR was performed with summary-level data (356,926 individuals) from published BMI and psoriasis genome-wide association studies (GWASs). The one-sample and two-sample MR estimates were meta-analysed using a fixed-effect model. To test for a potential reverse causal effect, MR analysis with genetic instruments comprising variants from recent genome-wide analyses for psoriasis were used to test whether genetic risk for this skin disease has a causal effect on BMI. Published observational data showed an association of higher BMI with psoriasis. A mean difference in BMI of 1.26 kg/m2 (95% CI 1.02-1.51) between psoriasis cases and controls was observed in adults, while a 1.55 kg/m2 mean difference (95% CI 1.13-1.98) was observed in children. The observational association was confirmed in UK Biobank and HUNT data sets. Overall, a 1 kg/m2 increase in BMI was associated with 4% higher odds of psoriasis (meta-analysis odds ratio [OR] = 1.04; 95% CI 1.03-1.04; P = 1.73 × 10(-60)). MR analyses provided evidence that higher BMI causally increases the odds of psoriasis (by 9% per 1 unit increase in BMI; OR = 1.09 (1.06-1.12) per 1 kg/m2; P = 4.67 × 10(-9)). In contrast, MR estimates gave little support to a possible causal effect of psoriasis genetic risk on BMI (0.004 kg/m2 change in BMI per doubling odds of psoriasis (-0.003 to 0.011). Limitations of our study include possible misreporting of psoriasis by patients, as well as potential misdiagnosis by clinicians. In addition, there is also limited ethnic variation in the cohorts studied.Conclusions: Our study, using genetic variants as instrumental variables for BMI, provides evidence that higher BMI leads to a higher risk of psoriasis. This supports the prioritization of therapies and lifestyle interventions aimed at controlling weight for the prevention or treatment of this common skin disease. Mechanistic studies are required to improve understanding of this relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: China has the highest global prevalence of cigarette smokers, accounting for more than 40% of the total cigarette consumption in the world. Considering the shortage of smoking cessation services in China, and the acceptability, feasibility, and efficacy of mobile-phone-based text messaging interventions for quitting smoking in other countries, we conducted a mobile-phone-based smoking cessation study in China.Methods and Findings: We conducted a randomized controlled trial in China across 30 cities and provinces from August 17, 2016, to May 27, 2017. Adult smokers aged 18 years and older with the intention to quit smoking were recruited and randomized to a 12-week high-frequency messaging (HFM) or low-frequency messaging (LFM) intervention ("Happy Quit") or to a control group in a 5:2:3 ratio. The control group received only text messages unrelated to quitting. The primary outcome was biochemically verified continuous smoking abstinence at 24 weeks. Secondary outcomes included (1) self-reported 7-day point prevalence of abstinence (i.e., not even a puff of smoke, for the last 7 days) at 1, 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, and 24 weeks; (2) self-reported continuous abstinence at 4, 12, and 24 weeks; and (3) self-reported average number of cigarettes smoked per day. A total of 1,369 participants received 12 weeks of intervention or control text messages with continued follow-up for 12 weeks. The baseline characteristics of participants among the HFM (n = 674), LFM (n = 284), and control (n = 411) groups were similar. The study sample included 1,295 (94.6%) men; participants had a mean age of 38.1 (SD 9.79) years and smoked an average of 20.1 (SD 9.19) cigarettes per day. We included the participants in an intention-to-treat analysis. Biochemically verified continuous smoking abstinence at 24 weeks occurred in 44/674 participants in the HFM group (6.5%), 17/284 participants in the LFM group (6.0%), and 8/411 participants (1.9%) in the control group; participants in both the HFM (odds ratio [OR] = 3.51, 95% CI 1.64-7.55, p < 0.001) and the LFM (OR = 3.21, 95% CI 1.36-7.54], p = 0.002) intervention groups were more likely to quit smoking than those in the control group. However, there was no difference in quit rate between the HFM and LFM interventions. We also found that the 7-day point quit rate from week 1 to week 24 ranged from approximately 10% to more than 26% with the intervention and from less than 4% to nearly 12% without the intervention. Those who continued as smokers in the HFM group smoked 1 to 3 fewer cigarettes per day than those in the LFM group over the 24 weeks of trial. Among study limitations, the participants were able to use other smoking cessation services (although very few participants reported using them), cotinine tests can only detect smoking status for a few days, and the proportion of quitters was small.Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate that a mobile-phone-based text messaging intervention (Happy Quit), with either high- or low-frequency messaging, led to smoking cessation in the present study, albeit in a low proportion of smokers, and can therefore be considered for use in large-scale intervention efforts in China. Mobile-phone-based interventions could be paired with other smoking cessation services for treatment-seeking smokers in China.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02693626. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Face-to-face brief interventions for problem drinking are effective, but they have found limited implementation in routine care and the community. Internet-based interventions could overcome this treatment gap. We investigated effectiveness and moderators of treatment outcomes in internet-based interventions for adult problem drinking (iAIs).Methods and Findings: Systematic searches were performed in medical and psychological databases to 31 December 2016. A one-stage individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDMA) was conducted with a linear mixed model complete-case approach, using baseline and first follow-up data. The primary outcome measure was mean weekly alcohol consumption in standard units (SUs, 10 grams of ethanol). Secondary outcome was treatment response (TR), defined as less than 14/21 SUs for women/men weekly. Putative participant, intervention, and study moderators were included. Robustness was verified in three sensitivity analyses: a two-stage IPDMA, a one-stage IPDMA using multiple imputation, and a missing-not-at-random (MNAR) analysis. We obtained baseline data for 14,198 adult participants (19 randomised controlled trials [RCTs], mean age 40.7 [SD = 13.2], 47.6% women). Their baseline mean weekly alcohol consumption was 38.1 SUs (SD = 26.9). Most were regular problem drinkers (80.1%, SUs 44.7, SD = 26.4) and 19.9% (SUs 11.9, SD = 4.1) were binge-only drinkers. About one third were heavy drinkers, meaning that women/men consumed, respectively, more than 35/50 SUs of alcohol at baseline (34.2%, SUs 65.9, SD = 27.1). Post-intervention data were available for 8,095 participants. Compared with controls, iAI participants showed a greater mean weekly decrease at follow-up of 5.02 SUs (95% CI -7.57 to -2.48, p < 0.001) and a higher rate of TR (odds ratio [OR] 2.20, 95% CI 1.63-2.95, p < 0.001, number needed to treat [NNT] = 4.15, 95% CI 3.06-6.62). Persons above age 55 showed higher TR than their younger counterparts (OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.21-2.27, p = 0.002). Drinking profiles were not significantly associated with treatment outcomes. Human-supported interventions were superior to fully automated ones on both outcome measures (comparative reduction: -6.78 SUs, 95% CI -12.11 to -1.45, p = 0.013; TR: OR = 2.23, 95% CI 1.22-4.08, p = 0.009). Participants treated in iAIs based on personalised normative feedback (PNF) alone were significantly less likely to sustain low-risk drinking at follow-up than those in iAIs based on integrated therapeutic principles (OR = 0.52, 95% CI 0.29-0.93, p = 0.029). The use of waitlist control in RCTs was associated with significantly better treatment outcomes than the use of other types of control (comparative reduction: -9.27 SUs, 95% CI -13.97 to -4.57, p < 0.001; TR: OR = 3.74, 95% CI 2.13-6.53, p < 0.001). The overall quality of the RCTs was high; a major limitation included high study dropout (43%). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of our primary analyses.Conclusion: To our knowledge, this is the first IPDMA on internet-based interventions that has shown them to be effective in curbing various patterns of adult problem drinking in both community and healthcare settings. Waitlist control may be conducive to inflation of treatment outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients often demonstrate varying clinical courses and outcomes, even within the same tumor stage. This study explores deep learning applications in medical imaging allowing for the automated quantification of radiographic characteristics and potentially improving patient stratification.Methods and Findings: We performed an integrative analysis on 7 independent datasets across 5 institutions totaling 1,194 NSCLC patients (age median = 68.3 years [range 32.5-93.3], survival median = 1.7 years [range 0.0-11.7]). Using external validation in computed tomography (CT) data, we identified prognostic signatures using a 3D convolutional neural network (CNN) for patients treated with radiotherapy (n = 771, age median = 68.0 years [range 32.5-93.3], survival median = 1.3 years [range 0.0-11.7]). We then employed a transfer learning approach to achieve the same for surgery patients (n = 391, age median = 69.1 years [range 37.2-88.0], survival median = 3.1 years [range 0.0-8.8]). We found that the CNN predictions were significantly associated with 2-year overall survival from the start of respective treatment for radiotherapy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.70 [95% CI 0.63-0.78], p < 0.001) and surgery (AUC = 0.71 [95% CI 0.60-0.82], p < 0.001) patients. The CNN was also able to significantly stratify patients into low and high mortality risk groups in both the radiotherapy (p < 0.001) and surgery (p = 0.03) datasets. Additionally, the CNN was found to significantly outperform random forest models built on clinical parameters-including age, sex, and tumor node metastasis stage-as well as demonstrate high robustness against test-retest (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.91) and inter-reader (Spearman's rank-order correlation = 0.88) variations. To gain a better understanding of the characteristics captured by the CNN, we identified regions with the most contribution towards predictions and highlighted the importance of tumor-surrounding tissue in patient stratification. We also present preliminary findings on the biological basis of the captured phenotypes as being linked to cell cycle and transcriptional processes. Limitations include the retrospective nature of this study as well as the opaque black box nature of deep learning networks.Conclusions: Our results provide evidence that deep learning networks may be used for mortality risk stratification based on standard-of-care CT images from NSCLC patients. This evidence motivates future research into better deciphering the clinical and biological basis of deep learning networks as well as validation in prospective data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is limited research on healthy volunteers' perceptions of the risks of Phase I clinical trials. In order to contribute empirically to long-standing ethical concerns about healthy volunteers' involvement in drug development, it is crucial to assess how these participants understand trial risks. The objectives of this study were to investigate (1) participants' views of the overall risks of Phase I trials, (2) their views of the risk of personally being harmed in a trial, and (3) how risk perceptions vary across participants' clinical trial history and sociodemographic characteristics.Methods and Findings: We qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed semi-structured interviews conducted with 178 healthy volunteers who had participated in a diverse range of Phase I trials in the United States. Participants had collective experience in a reported 1,948 Phase I trials (mean = 10.9; median = 5), and they were interviewed as part of a longitudinal study of healthy volunteers' risk perceptions, their trial enrollment decisions, and their routine health behaviors. Participants' qualitative responses were coded, analyzed, and subsequently quantified in order to assess correlations between their risk perceptions and demographics, such as their race/ethnicity, gender, age, educational attainment, employment status, and household income. We found that healthy volunteers often viewed the overall risks of Phase I trials differently than their own personal risk of harm. The majority of our participants thought that Phase I trials were medium, high, or extremely high risk (118 of 178), but most nonetheless felt that they were personally safe from harm (97 of 178). We also found that healthy volunteers in their first year of clinical trial participation, racial and ethnic minority participants, and Hispanic participants tended to view the overall trial risks as high (respectively, Jonckheere-Terpstra, -2.433, p = 0.015; Fisher exact test, p = 0.016; Fisher exact test, p = 0.008), but these groups did not differ in regard to their perceptions of personal risk of harm (respectively, chi-squared, 3.578, p = 0.059; chi-squared, 0.845, p = 0.358; chi-squared, 1.667, p = 0.197). The main limitation of our study comes from quantitatively aggregating data from in-depth interviews, which required the research team to interpret participants' nonstandardized risk narratives.Conclusions: Our study demonstrates that healthy volunteers are generally aware of and reflective about Phase I trial risks. The discrepancy in healthy volunteers' views of overall and personal risk sheds light on why healthy volunteers might continue to enroll in clinical trials, even when they view trials on the whole as risky. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cabotegravir (CAB) is a novel strand-transfer integrase inhibitor being developed for HIV treatment and prevention. CAB is formulated both as an immediate-release oral tablet for daily administration and as a long-acting injectable suspension (long-acting CAB [CAB LA]) for intramuscular (IM) administration, which delivers prolonged plasma exposure to the drug after IM injection. HIV Prevention Trials Network study 077 (HPTN 077) evaluated the safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetics of CAB LA in HIV-uninfected males and females at 8 sites in Brazil, Malawi, South Africa, and the United States. Methods and findings: HPTN 077 was a double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 2a trial. Healthy individuals age 18–65 years at low HIV risk were randomized (3:1) to receive CAB or placebo (PBO). In the initial oral phase, participants received 1 daily oral tablet (CAB or PBO) for 4 weeks. Those without safety concerns in the oral phase continued and received injections in the injection phase (Cohort 1: 3 injections of CAB LA 800 mg or 0.9% saline as PBO IM every 12 weeks for 3 injection cycles; Cohort 2: CAB LA 600 mg or PBO IM for 5 injection cycles; the first 2 injections in Cohort 2 were separated by 4 weeks, the rest by 8 weeks). The primary analysis included weeks 5 to 41 of study participation, encompassing the injection phase. The cohorts were enrolled sequentially. Primary outcomes were safety and tolerability. Secondary outcomes included pharmacokinetics and events occurring during the oral and injection phases. Between February 9, 2015, and May 27, 2016, the study screened 443 individuals and enrolled 110 participants in Cohort 1 and 89 eligible participants in Cohort 2. Participant population characteristics were as follows: 66% female at birth; median age 31 years; 27% non-Hispanic white, 41% non-Hispanic black, 24% Hispanic/Latino, 3% Asian, and 6% mixed/other; and 6 transgender men and 1 transgender woman. Twenty-two (11%) participants discontinued the oral study product; 6 of these were for clinical or laboratory adverse events (AEs). Of those who received at least 1 CAB LA injection, 80% of Cohort 1 and 92% of Cohort 2 participants completed all injections; injection course completion rates were not different from those in the PBO arm. Injection site reactions (ISRs) were common (92% of Cohort 1 and 88% of Cohort 2 participants who received CAB LA reported any ISR). ISRs were mostly Grade 1 (mild) to Grade 2 (moderate), and 1 ISR event (Cohort 1) led to product discontinuation. Grade 2 or higher ISRs were the only AEs reported more commonly among CAB LA recipients than PBO recipients. Two Grade 3 (severe) ISRs occurred in CAB recipients, 1 in each cohort, but did not lead to product discontinuation in either case. Seven incident sexually transmitted infections were diagnosed in 6 participants. One HIV infection occurred in a participant 48 weeks after last injection of CAB LA: CAB was not detectable in plasma both at the time of first reactive HIV test and at the study visit 12 weeks prior to the first reactive test. Participants in Cohort 2 (unlike Cohort 1) consistently met prespecified pharmacokinetic targets of at least 95% of participants maintaining CAB trough concentrations above PA-IC90, and 80% maintaining trough concentrations above 4× PA-IC90. Study limitations include a modest sample size, a short course of injections, and a low-risk study population. Conclusions: In this study, CAB LA was well tolerated at the doses and dosing intervals used. ISRs were common, but infrequently led to product discontinuation. CAB LA 600 mg every 8 weeks met pharmacokinetic targets for both male and female study participants. The safety and pharmacokinetic results observed support the further development of CAB LA, and efficacy studies of CAB LA for HIV treatment and prevention are in progress. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry: ClinicalTrials.gov Trial number: . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Neutropenia increases the risk of infection, but it is unknown if this also applies to lymphopenia. We therefore tested the hypotheses that lymphopenia is associated with increased risk of infection and infection-related death in the general population.Methods and Findings: Of the invited 220,424 individuals, 99,191 attended examination. We analyzed 98,344 individuals from the Copenhagen General Population Study (Denmark), examined from November 25, 2003, to July 9, 2013, and with available blood lymphocyte count at date of examination. During a median of 6 years of follow-up, they developed 8,401 infections and experienced 1,045 infection-related deaths. Due to the completeness of the Danish civil and health registries, none of the 98,344 individuals were lost to follow-up, and those emigrating (n = 385) or dying (n = 5,636) had their follow-up truncated at the day of emigration or death. At date of examination, mean age was 58 years, and 44,181 (44.9%) were men. Individuals with lymphopenia (lymphocyte count < 1.1 × 109/l, n = 2,352) compared to those with lymphocytes in the reference range (1.1-3.7 × 109/l, n = 93,538) had multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of 1.41 (95% CI 1.28-1.56) for any infection, 1.31 (1.14-1.52) for pneumonia, 1.44 (1.15-1.79) for skin infection, 1.26 (1.02-1.56) for urinary tract infection, 1.51 (1.21-1.89) for sepsis, 1.38 (1.01-1.88) for diarrheal disease, 2.15 (1.16-3.98) for endocarditis, and 2.26 (1.21-4.24) for other infections. The corresponding hazard ratio for infection-related death was 1.70 (95% CI 1.37-2.10). Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, cumulative smoking, alcohol intake, body mass index, plasma C-reactive protein, blood neutrophil count, recent infection, Charlson comorbidity index, autoimmune diseases, medication use, and immunodeficiency/hematologic disease. The findings were robust in all stratified analyses and also when including only events later than 2 years after first examination. However, due to the observational design, the study cannot address questions of causality, and our analyses might theoretically have been affected by residual confounding and reverse causation. In principle, fluctuating lymphocyte counts over time might also have influenced analyses, but lymphocyte counts in 5,181 individuals measured 10 years after first examination showed a regression dilution ratio of 0.68.Conclusions: Lymphopenia was associated with increased risk of hospitalization with infection and increased risk of infection-related death in the general population. Notably, causality cannot be deduced from our data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Somalia has been affected by conflict since 1991, with children aged <5 years presenting a high acute malnutrition prevalence. Cash-based interventions (CBIs) have been used in this context since 2011, despite sparse evidence of their nutritional impact. We aimed to understand whether a CBI would reduce acute malnutrition and its risk factors.Methods and Findings: We implemented a non-randomised cluster trial in internally displaced person (IDP) camps, located in peri-urban Mogadishu, Somalia. Within 10 IDP camps (henceforth clusters) selected using a humanitarian vulnerability assessment, all households were targeted for the CBI. Ten additional clusters located adjacent to the intervention clusters were selected as controls. The CBI comprised a monthly unconditional cash transfer of US$84.00 for 5 months, a once-only distribution of a non-food-items kit, and the provision of piped water free of charge. The cash transfers started in May 2016. Cash recipients were female household representatives. In March and September 2016, from a cohort of randomly selected households in the intervention (n = 111) and control (n = 117) arms (household cohort), we collected household and individual level data from children aged 6-59 months (155 in the intervention and 177 in the control arms) and their mothers/primary carers, to measure known malnutrition risk factors. In addition, between June and November 2016, data to assess acute malnutrition incidence were collected monthly from a cohort of children aged 6-59 months, exhaustively sampled from the intervention (n = 759) and control (n = 1,379) arms (child cohort). Primary outcomes were the mean Child Dietary Diversity Score in the household cohort and the incidence of first episode of acute malnutrition in the child cohort, defined by a mid-upper arm circumference < 12.5 cm and/or oedema. Analyses were by intention-to-treat. For the household cohort we assessed differences-in-differences, for the child cohort we used Cox proportional hazards ratios. In the household cohort, the CBI appeared to increase the Child Dietary Diversity Score by 0.53 (95% CI 0.01; 1.05). In the child cohort, the acute malnutrition incidence rate (cases/100 child-months) was 0.77 (95% CI 0.70; 1.21) and 0.92 (95% CI 0.53; 1.14) in intervention and control arms, respectively. The CBI did not appear to reduce the risk of acute malnutrition: unadjusted hazard ratio 0.83 (95% CI 0.48; 1.42) and hazard ratio adjusted for age and sex 0.94 (95% CI 0.51; 1.74). The CBI appeared to increase the monthly household expenditure by US$29.60 (95% CI 3.51; 55.68), increase the household Food Consumption Score by 14.8 (95% CI 4.83; 24.8), and decrease the Reduced Coping Strategies Index by 11.6 (95% CI 17.5; 5.96). The study limitations were as follows: the study was not randomised, insecurity in the field limited the household cohort sample size and collection of other anthropometric measurements in the child cohort, the humanitarian vulnerability assessment data used to allocate the intervention were not available for analysis, food market data were not available to aid results interpretation, and the malnutrition incidence observed was lower than expected.Conclusions: The CBI appeared to improve beneficiaries' wealth and food security but did not appear to reduce acute malnutrition risk in IDP camp children. Further studies are needed to assess whether changing this intervention, e.g., including specific nutritious foods or social and behaviour change communication, would improve its nutritional impact.Trial Registration: ISRCTN Registy ISRCTN29521514. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: HIV testing rates are suboptimal among at-risk men. Crowdsourcing may be a useful tool for designing innovative, community-based HIV testing strategies to increase HIV testing. The purpose of this study was to use a stepped wedge cluster randomized controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the effect of a crowdsourced HIV intervention on HIV testing uptake among men who have sex with men (MSM) in eight Chinese cities.Methods and Findings: An HIV testing intervention was developed through a national image contest, a regional strategy designathon, and local message contests. The final intervention included a multimedia HIV testing campaign, an online HIV testing service, and local testing promotion campaigns tailored for MSM. This intervention was evaluated using a closed cohort stepped wedge cluster RCT in eight Chinese cities (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, and Jiangmen in Guangdong province; Jinan, Qingdao, Yantai, and Jining in Shandong province) from August 2016 to August 2017. MSM were recruited through Blued, a social networking mobile application for MSM, from July 29 to August 21 of 2016. The primary outcome was self-reported HIV testing in the past 3 months. Secondary outcomes included HIV self-testing, facility-based HIV testing, condom use, and syphilis testing. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) were used to analyze primary and secondary outcomes. We enrolled a total of 1,381 MSM. Most were ≤30 years old (82%), unmarried (86%), and had a college degree or higher (65%). The proportion of individuals receiving an HIV test during the intervention periods within a city was 8.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-15.5) greater than during the control periods. In addition, the intention-to-treat analysis showed a higher probability of receiving an HIV test during the intervention periods as compared to the control periods (estimated risk ratio [RR] = 1.43, 95% CI 1.19-1.73). The intervention also increased HIV self-testing (RR = 1.89, 95% CI 1.50-2.38). There was no effect on facility-based HIV testing (RR = 1.00, 95% CI 0.79-1.26), condom use (RR = 1.00, 95% CI 0.86-1.17), or syphilis testing (RR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.70-1.21). A total of 48.6% (593/1,219) of participants reported that they received HIV self-testing. Among men who received two HIV tests, 32 individuals seroconverted during the 1-year study period. Study limitations include the use of self-reported HIV testing data among a subset of men and non-completion of the final survey by 23% of participants. Our study population was a young online group in urban China and the relevance of our findings to other populations will require further investigation.Conclusions: In this setting, crowdsourcing was effective for developing and strengthening community-based HIV testing services for MSM. Crowdsourced interventions may be an important tool for the scale-up of HIV testing services among MSM in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC).Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02796963. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a Policy Forum, Marc Lipsitch and colleagues discuss trial design issues in infectious disease outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dizziness is common among older people and is associated with a cascade of debilitating symptoms, such as reduced quality of life, depression, and falls. The multifactorial aetiology of dizziness is a major barrier to establishing a clear diagnosis and offering effective therapeutic interventions. Only a few multidisciplinary interventions of dizziness have been conducted to date, all of a pilot nature and none tailoring the intervention to the specific causes of dizziness. Here, we aimed to test the hypothesis that a multidisciplinary dizziness assessment followed by a tailored multifaceted intervention would reduce dizziness handicap and self-reported dizziness as well as enhance balance and gait in people aged 50 years and over with dizziness symptoms.Methods and Findings: We conducted a 6-month, single-blind, parallel-group randomized controlled trial in community-living people aged 50 years and over who reported dizziness in the past year. We excluded individuals currently receiving treatment for their dizziness, those with degenerative neurological conditions including cognitive impairment, those unable to walk 20 meters, and those identified at baseline assessment with conditions that required urgent treatment. Our team of geriatrician, vestibular neuroscientist, psychologist, exercise physiologist, study coordinator, and baseline assessor held case conferences fortnightly to discuss and recommend appropriate therapy (or therapies) for each participant, based on their multidisciplinary baseline assessments. A total of 305 men and women aged 50 to 92 years (mean [SD] age: 67.8 [8.3] years; 62% women) were randomly assigned to either usual care (control; n = 151) or to a tailored, multifaceted intervention (n = 154) comprising one or more of the following: a physiotherapist-led vestibular rehabilitation programme (35% [n = 54]), an 8-week internet-based cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) (19% [n = 29]), a 6-month Otago home-based exercise programme (24% [n = 37]), and/or medical management (40% [n = 62]). We were unable to identify a cause of dizziness in 71 participants (23% of total sample). Primary outcome measures comprised dizziness burden measured with the Dizziness Handicap Inventory (DHI) score, frequency of dizziness episodes recorded with monthly calendars over the 6-month follow-up, choice-stepping reaction time (CSRT), and gait variability. Data from 274 participants (90%; 137 per group) were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. At trial completion, the DHI scores in the intervention group (pre and post mean [SD]: 25.9 [19.2] and 20.4 [17.7], respectively) were significantly reduced compared with the control group (pre and post mean [SD]: 23.0 [15.8] and 21.8 [16.4]), when controlling for baseline scores (mean [95% CI] difference between groups [baseline adjusted]: -3.7 [-6.2 to -1.2]; p = 0.003). There were no significant between-group differences in dizziness episodes (relative risk [RR] [95% CI]: 0.87 [0.65 to 1.17]; p = 0.360), CSRT performance (mean [95% CI] difference between groups [baseline adjusted]: -15 [-40 to 10]; p = 0.246), and step-time variability during gait (mean [95% CI] difference between groups [baseline adjusted]: -0.001 [-0.002 to 0.001]; p = 0.497). No serious intervention-related adverse events occurred. Study limitations included the low initial dizziness severity of the participants and the only fair uptake of the falls clinic (medical management) and the CBT interventions.Conclusions: A multifactorial tailored approach for treating dizziness was effective in reducing dizziness handicap in community-living people aged 50 years and older. No difference was seen on the other primary outcomes. Our findings therefore support the implementation of individualized, multifaceted evidence-based therapies to reduce self-perceived disability associated with dizziness in middle-aged and older people.Trial Registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12612000379819. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Evidence on the long-term effect of breastfeeding on neurocognitive development is based almost exclusively on observational studies. In the 16-year follow-up study of a large, cluster-randomized trial of a breastfeeding promotion intervention, we evaluated the long-term persistence of the neurocognitive benefits of the breastfeeding promotion intervention previously observed at early school age.Methods and Findings: A total of 13,557 participants (79.5% of the 17,046 randomized) of the Promotion of Breastfeeding Intervention Trial (PROBIT) were followed up at age 16 from September 2012 to July 2015. At the follow-up, neurocognitive function was assessed in 7 verbal and nonverbal cognitive domains using a computerized, self-administered test battery among 13,427 participants. Using an intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis as our prespecified primary analysis, we estimated cluster- and baseline characteristic-adjusted mean differences between the intervention (prolonged and exclusive breastfeeding promotion modelled on the Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative) and control (usual care) groups in 7 cognitive domains and a global cognitive score. In our prespecified secondary analysis, we estimated mean differences by instrumental variable (IV) analysis to account for noncompliance with the randomly assigned intervention and estimate causal effects of breastfeeding. The 16-year follow-up rates were similar in the intervention (79.7%) and control groups (79.3%), and baseline characteristics were comparable between the two. In the cluster-adjusted ITT analyses, children in the intervention group did not show statistically significant differences in the scores from children in the control group. Prespecified additional adjustment for baseline characteristics improved statistical precision and resulted in slightly higher scores among children in the intervention for verbal function (1.4 [95% CI 0.3-2.5]) and memory (1.2 [95% CI 0.01-2.4]). IV analysis showed that children who were exclusively breastfed for ≥3 (versus <3) months had a 3.5-point (95% CI 0.9-6.1) higher verbal function, but no differences were observed in other domains. While our computerized, self-administered cognitive testing reduced the cluster-level variability in the scores, it may have increased individual-level measurement errors in adolescents.Conclusions: We observed no benefit of a breastfeeding promotion intervention on overall neurocognitive function. The only beneficial effect was on verbal function at age 16. The higher verbal ability is consistent with results observed at early school age; however, the effect size was substantially smaller in adolescence.Probit Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01561612. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Concerning gaps in the HIV care continuum compromise individual and population health. We evaluated a combination intervention strategy (CIS) targeting prevalent barriers to timely linkage and sustained retention in HIV care in Mozambique.Methods and Findings: In this cluster-randomized trial, 10 primary health facilities in the city of Maputo and Inhambane Province were randomly assigned to provide the CIS or the standard of care (SOC). The CIS included point-of-care CD4 testing at the time of diagnosis, accelerated ART initiation, and short message service (SMS) health messages and appointment reminders. A pre-post intervention 2-sample design was nested within the CIS arm to assess the effectiveness of CIS+, an enhanced version of the CIS that additionally included conditional non-cash financial incentives for linkage and retention. The primary outcome was a combined outcome of linkage to care within 1 month and retention at 12 months after diagnosis. From April 22, 2013, to June 30, 2015, we enrolled 2,004 out of 5,327 adults ≥18 years of age diagnosed with HIV in the voluntary counseling and testing clinics of participating health facilities: 744 (37%) in the CIS group, 493 (25%) in the CIS+ group, and 767 (38%) in the SOC group. Fifty-seven percent of the CIS group achieved the primary outcome versus 35% in the SOC group (relative risk [RR]CIS vs SOC = 1.58, 95% CI 1.05-2.39). Eighty-nine percent of the CIS group linked to care on the day of diagnosis versus 16% of the SOC group (RRCIS vs SOC = 9.13, 95% CI 1.65-50.40). There was no significant benefit of adding financial incentives to the CIS in terms of the combined outcome (55% of the CIS+ group achieved the primary outcome, RRCIS+ vs CIS = 0.96, 95% CI 0.81-1.16). Key limitations include the use of existing medical records to assess outcomes, the inability to isolate the effect of each component of the CIS, non-concurrent enrollment of the CIS+ group, and exclusion of many patients newly diagnosed with HIV.Conclusions: The CIS showed promise for making much needed gains in the HIV care continuum in our study, particularly in the critical first step of timely linkage to care following diagnosis.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01930084. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paul Pinsky of the US National Cancer Institute and colleagues describe the implementation and outcomes of web-based data sharing from the PLCO and NLST cancer screening trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cash-based interventions (CBIs), offer an interesting opportunity to prevent increases in wasting in humanitarian aid settings. However, questions remain as to the impact of CBIs on nutritional status and, therefore, how to incorporate them into emergency programmes to maximise their success in terms of improved nutritional outcomes. This study evaluated the effects of three different CBI modalities on nutritional outcomes in children under 5 y of age at 6 mo and at 1 y.Methods and Findings: We conducted a four-arm parallel longitudinal cluster randomised controlled trial in 114 villages in Dadu District, Pakistan. The study included poor and very poor households (n = 2,496) with one or more children aged 6-48 mo (n = 3,584) at baseline. All four arms had equal access to an Action Against Hunger-supported programme. The three intervention arms were as follows: standard cash (SC), a cash transfer of 1,500 Pakistani rupees (PKR) (approximately US$14; 1 PKR = US$0.009543); double cash (DC), a cash transfer of 3,000 PKR; or a fresh food voucher (FFV) of 1,500 PKR; the cash or voucher amount was given every month over six consecutive months. The control group (CG) received no specific cash-related interventions. The median total household income for the study sample was 8,075 PKR (approximately US$77) at baseline. We hypothesized that, compared to the CG in each case, FFVs would be more effective than SC, and that DC would be more effective than SC-both at 6 mo and at 1 y-for reducing the risk of child wasting. Primary outcomes of interest were prevalence of being wasted (weight-for-height z-score [WHZ] < -2) and mean WHZ at 6 mo and at 1 y. The odds of a child being wasted were significantly lower in the DC arm after 6 mo (odds ratio [OR] = 0.52; 95% CI 0.29, 0.92; p = 0.02) compared to the CG. Mean WHZ significantly improved in both the FFV and DC arms at 6 mo (FFV: z-score = 0.16; 95% CI 0.05, 0.26; p = 0.004; DC: z-score = 0.11; 95% CI 0.00, 0.21; p = 0.05) compared to the CG. Significant differences on the primary outcome were seen only at 6 mo. All three intervention groups showed similar significantly lower odds of being stunted (height-for-age z-score [HAZ] < -2) at 6 mo (DC: OR = 0.39; 95% CI 0.24, 0.64; p < 0.001; FFV: OR = 0.41; 95% CI 0.25, 0.67; p < 0.001; SC: OR = 0.36; 95% CI 0.22, 0.59; p < 0.001) and at 1 y (DC: OR = 0.53; 95% CI 0.35, 0.82; p = 0.004; FFV: OR = 0.48; 95% CI 0.31, 0.73; p = 0.001; SC: OR = 0.54; 95% CI 0.36, 0.81; p = 0.003) compared to the CG. Significant improvements in height-for-age outcomes were also seen for severe stunting (HAZ < -3) and mean HAZ. An unintended outcome was observed in the FFV arm: a negative intervention effect on mean haemoglobin (Hb) status (-2.6 g/l; 95% CI -4.5, -0.8; p = 0.005). Limitations of this study included the inability to mask participants or data collectors to the different interventions, the potentially restrictive nature of the FFVs, not being able to measure a threshold effect for the two different cash amounts or compare the different quantities of food consumed, and data collection challenges given the difficult environment in which this study was set.Conclusions: In this setting, the amount of cash given was important. The larger cash transfer had the greatest effect on wasting, but only at 6 mo. Impacts at both 6 mo and at 1 y were seen for height-based growth variables regardless of the intervention modality, indicating a trend toward nutrition resilience. Purchasing restrictions applied to food-based voucher transfers could have unintended effects, and their use needs to be carefully planned to avoid this.Trial Registration: ISRCTN registry ISRCTN10761532. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Rotavirus vaccines are now globally recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), but in early 2009 WHO's Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization reviewed available data and concluded that there was no evidence for the efficacy or effectiveness of a two-dose schedule of the human rotavirus vaccine (HRV; Rotarix) given early at 6 and 10 wk of age. Additionally, the effectiveness of programmatic rotavirus vaccination, including possible indirect effects, has not been assessed in low-resource populations in Asia.Methods and Findings: In Bangladesh, we cluster-randomized (1:1) 142 villages of the Matlab Health and Demographic Surveillance System to include two doses of HRV with the standard infant vaccines at 6 and 10 wk of age or to provide standard infant vaccines without HRV. The study was initiated November 1, 2008, and surveillance was conducted concurrently at Matlab Diarrhoea Hospital and two community treatment centers to identify children less than 2 y of age presenting with acute rotavirus diarrhea (ARD) through March 31, 2011. Laboratory confirmation was made by enzyme immunoassay detection of rotavirus antigen in stool specimens. Overall effectiveness of the HRV vaccination program (primary objective) was measured by comparing the incidence rate of ARD among all children age-eligible for vaccination in villages where HRV was introduced to that among such children in villages where HRV was not introduced. Total effectiveness among vaccinees and indirect effectiveness were also evaluated. In all, 6,527 infants were age-eligible for vaccination in 71 HRV villages, and 5,791 in 71 non-HRV villages. In HRV villages, 4,808 (73.7%) infants received at least one dose of HRV. The incidence rate of ARD was 4.10 cases per 100 person-years in non-HRV villages compared to 2.8 per 100 person-years in HRV villages, indicating an overall effectiveness of 29.0% (95% CI, 11.3% to 43.1%). The total effectiveness of HRV against ARD among vaccinees was 41.4% (95% CI, 23.2% to 55.2%). The point estimate for total effectiveness was higher against ARD during the first year of life than during the second (45.2% versus 28.9%), but estimates for the second year of life lacked precision and did not reach statistical significance. Indirect effects were not detected. To check for bias in presentation to treatment facilities, we evaluated the effectiveness of HRV against acute diarrhea associated with enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli; it was 4.0% (95% CI, -46.5% to 37.1%), indicating that bias likely was not introduced. Thirteen serious adverse events were identified among recipients of HRV, but none were considered related to receipt of study vaccine. The main limitation of this study is that it was an open-label study with an observed-only control group (no placebo).Conclusions: The two-dose HRV rotavirus vaccination program significantly reduced medically attended ARD in this low-resource population in Asia. Protection among vaccinees was similar to that in other low-resource settings. In low-resource populations with high rotavirus incidence, large-scale vaccination across a wide population may be required to obtain the full benefit of rotavirus vaccination, including indirect effects.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00737503. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Most people with dementia do not receive timely diagnosis, preventing them from making informed plans about their future and accessing services. Many countries have a policy to increase timely diagnosis, but trials aimed at changing general practitioner (GP) practice have been unsuccessful. We aimed to assess whether a GP's personal letter, with an evidence-based leaflet about overcoming barriers to accessing help for memory problems-aimed at empowering patients and families-increases timely dementia diagnosis and patient presentation to general practice.Methods and Finding: Multicentre, cluster-randomised controlled trial with raters masked to an online computer-generated randomisation system assessing 1 y outcome. We recruited 22 general practices (August 2013-September 2014) and 13 corresponding secondary care memory services in London, Hertfordshire, and Essex, United Kingdom. Eligible patients were aged ≥70 y, without a known diagnosis of dementia, living in their own homes. There were 6,387 such patients in 11 intervention practices and 8,171 in the control practices. The primary outcome was cognitive severity on Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE). Main secondary outcomes were proportion of patients consulting their GP with suspected memory disorders and proportion of those referred to memory clinics. There was no between-group difference in cognitive severity at diagnosis (99 intervention, mean MMSE = 22.04, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) = 20.95 to 23.13; 124 control, mean MMSE = 22.59, 95% CI = 21.58 to 23.6; p = 0.48). GP consultations with patients with suspected memory disorders increased in intervention versus control group (odds ratio = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.28, 1.54). There was no between-group difference in the proportions of patients referred to memory clinics (166, 2.5%; 220, 2.7%; p = .077 respectively). The study was limited as we do not know whether the additional patients presenting to GPs had objective as well as subjective memory problems and therefore should have been referred. In addition, we aimed to empower patients but did not do anything to change GP practice.Conclusions: Our intervention to access timely dementia diagnosis resulted in more patients presenting to GPs with memory problems, but no diagnoses increase. We are uncertain as to the reason for this and do not know whether empowering the public and targeting GPs would have resulted in a successful intervention. Future interventions should be targeted at both patients and GPs.Trial Registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN19216873. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Single gene tests to predict whether cancers respond to specific targeted therapies are performed increasingly often. Advances in sequencing technology, collectively referred to as next generation sequencing (NGS), mean the entire cancer genome or parts of it can now be sequenced at speed with increased depth and sensitivity. However, translation of NGS into routine cancer care has been slow. Healthcare stakeholders are unclear about the clinical utility of NGS and are concerned it could be an expensive addition to cancer diagnostics, rather than an affordable alternative to single gene testing.Methods and Findings: We validated a 46-gene hotspot cancer panel assay allowing multiple gene testing from small diagnostic biopsies. From 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013, solid tumour samples (including non-small-cell lung carcinoma [NSCLC], colorectal carcinoma, and melanoma) were sequenced in the context of the UK National Health Service from 351 consecutively submitted prospective cases for which treating clinicians thought the patient had potential to benefit from more extensive genetic analysis. Following histological assessment, tumour-rich regions of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) sections underwent macrodissection, DNA extraction, NGS, and analysis using a pipeline centred on Torrent Suite software. With a median turnaround time of seven working days, an integrated clinical report was produced indicating the variants detected, including those with potential diagnostic, prognostic, therapeutic, or clinical trial entry implications. Accompanying phenotypic data were collected, and a detailed cost analysis of the panel compared with single gene testing was undertaken to assess affordability for routine patient care. Panel sequencing was successful for 97% (342/351) of tumour samples in the prospective cohort and showed 100% concordance with known mutations (detected using cobas assays). At least one mutation was identified in 87% (296/342) of tumours. A locally actionable mutation (i.e., available targeted treatment or clinical trial) was identified in 122/351 patients (35%). Forty patients received targeted treatment, in 22/40 (55%) cases solely due to use of the panel. Examination of published data on the potential efficacy of targeted therapies showed theoretically actionable mutations (i.e., mutations for which targeted treatment was potentially appropriate) in 66% (71/107) and 39% (41/105) of melanoma and NSCLC patients, respectively. At a cost of £339 (US$449) per patient, the panel was less expensive locally than performing more than two or three single gene tests. Study limitations include the use of FFPE samples, which do not always provide high-quality DNA, and the use of "real world" data: submission of cases for sequencing did not always follow clinical guidelines, meaning that when mutations were detected, patients were not always eligible for targeted treatments on clinical grounds.Conclusions: This study demonstrates that more extensive tumour sequencing can identify mutations that could improve clinical decision-making in routine cancer care, potentially improving patient outcomes, at an affordable level for healthcare providers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) results indicate that computed tomography (CT) lung cancer screening for current and former smokers with three annual screens can be cost-effective in a trial setting. However, the cost-effectiveness in a population-based setting with >3 screening rounds is uncertain. Therefore, the objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening in a population-based setting in Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the effects of screening eligibility criteria.Methods and Findings: This study used microsimulation modeling informed by various data sources, including the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP), Ontario Cancer Registry, smoking behavior surveys, and the NLST. Persons, born between 1940 and 1969, were examined from a third-party health care payer perspective across a lifetime horizon. Starting in 2015, 576 CT screening scenarios were examined, varying by age to start and end screening, smoking eligibility criteria, and screening interval. Among the examined outcome measures were lung cancer deaths averted, life-years gained, percentage ever screened, costs (in 2015 Canadian dollars), and overdiagnosis. The results of the base-case analysis indicated that annual screening was more cost-effective than biennial screening. Scenarios with eligibility criteria that required as few as 20 pack-years were dominated by scenarios that required higher numbers of accumulated pack-years. In general, scenarios that applied stringent smoking eligibility criteria (i.e., requiring higher levels of accumulated smoking exposure) were more cost-effective than scenarios with less stringent smoking eligibility criteria, with modest differences in life-years gained. Annual screening between ages 55-75 for persons who smoked ≥40 pack-years and who currently smoke or quit ≤10 y ago yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,136 Canadian dollars ($33,825 in May 1, 2015, United States dollars) per life-year gained (compared to annual screening between ages 60-75 for persons who smoked ≥40 pack-years and who currently smoke or quit ≤10 y ago), which was considered optimal at a cost-effectiveness threshold of $50,000 Canadian dollars ($41,114 May 1, 2015, US dollars). If 50% lower or higher attributable costs were assumed, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of this scenario was estimated to be $38,240 ($31,444 May 1, 2015, US dollars) or $48,525 ($39,901 May 1, 2015, US dollars), respectively. If 50% lower or higher costs for CT examinations were assumed, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of this scenario was estimated to be $28,630 ($23,542 May 1, 2015, US dollars) or $73,507 ($60,443 May 1, 2015, US dollars), respectively. This scenario would screen 9.56% (499,261 individuals) of the total population (ever- and never-smokers) at least once, which would require 4,788,523 CT examinations, and reduce lung cancer mortality in the total population by 9.05% (preventing 13,108 lung cancer deaths), while 12.53% of screen-detected cancers would be overdiagnosed (4,282 overdiagnosed cases). Sensitivity analyses indicated that the overall results were most sensitive to variations in CT examination costs. Quality of life was not incorporated in the analyses, and assumptions for follow-up procedures were based on data from the NLST, which may not be generalizable to a population-based setting.Conclusions: Lung cancer screening with stringent smoking eligibility criteria can be cost-effective in a population-based setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are essential for evidence-based medicine and increasingly rely on front-line clinicians to recruit eligible patients. Clinicians' difficulties with negotiating equipoise is assumed to undermine recruitment, although these issues have not yet been empirically investigated in the context of observable events. We aimed to investigate how clinicians conveyed equipoise during RCT recruitment appointments across six RCTs, with a view to (i) identifying practices that supported or hindered equipoise communication and (ii) exploring how clinicians' reported intentions compared with their actual practices.Methods and Findings: Six pragmatic UK-based RCTs were purposefully selected to include several clinical specialties (e.g., oncology, surgery) and types of treatment comparison. The RCTs were all based in secondary-care hospitals (n = 16) around the UK. Clinicians recruiting to the RCTs were interviewed (n = 23) to understand their individual sense of equipoise about the RCT treatments and their intentions for communicating equipoise to patients. Appointments in which these clinicians presented the RCT to trial-eligible patients were audio-recorded (n = 105). The appointments were analysed using thematic and content analysis approaches to identify practices that supported or challenged equipoise communication. A sample of appointments was independently coded by three researchers to optimise reliability in reported findings. Clinicians and patients provided full written consent to be interviewed and have appointments audio-recorded. Interviews revealed that clinicians' sense of equipoise varied: although all were uncertain about which trial treatment was optimal, they expressed different levels of uncertainty, ranging from complete ambivalence to clear beliefs that one treatment was superior. Irrespective of their personal views, all clinicians intended to set their personal biases aside to convey trial treatments neutrally to patients (in accordance with existing evidence). However, equipoise was omitted or compromised in 48/105 (46%) of the recorded appointments. Three commonly recurring practices compromised equipoise communication across the RCTs, irrespective of clinical context. First, equipoise was overridden by clinicians offering treatment recommendations when patients appeared unsure how to proceed or when they asked for the clinician's expert advice. Second, clinicians contradicted equipoise by presenting imbalanced descriptions of trial treatments that conflicted with scientific information stated in the RCT protocols. Third, equipoise was undermined by clinicians disclosing their personal opinions or predictions about trial outcomes, based on their intuition and experience. These broad practices were particularly demonstrated by clinicians who had indicated in interviews that they held less balanced views about trial treatments. A limitation of the study was that clinicians volunteering to take part in the research might have had a particular interest in improving their communication skills. However, the frequency of occurrence of equipoise issues across the RCTs suggests that the findings are likely to be reflective of clinical recruiters' practices more widely.Conclusions: Communicating equipoise is a challenging process that is easily disrupted. Clinicians' personal views about trial treatments encroached on their ability to convey equipoise to patients. Clinicians should be encouraged to reflect on personal biases and be mindful of the common ways in which these can arise in their discussions with patients. Common pitfalls that recurred irrespective of RCT context indicate opportunities for specific training in communication skills that would be broadly applicable to a wide clinical audience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Core outcome sets (COS) can enhance the relevance of research by ensuring that outcomes of importance to health service users and other people making choices about health care in a particular topic area are measured routinely. Over 200 COS to date have been developed, but the clarity of these reports is suboptimal. COS studies will not achieve their goal if reports of COS are not complete and transparent.Methods and Findings: In recognition of these issues, an international group that included experienced COS developers, methodologists, journal editors, potential users of COS (clinical trialists, systematic reviewers, and clinical guideline developers), and patient representatives developed the Core Outcome Set-STAndards for Reporting (COS-STAR) Statement as a reporting guideline for COS studies. The developmental process consisted of an initial reporting item generation stage and a two-round Delphi survey involving nearly 200 participants representing key stakeholder groups, followed by a consensus meeting. The COS-STAR Statement consists of a checklist of 18 items considered essential for transparent and complete reporting in all COS studies. The checklist items focus on the introduction, methods, results, and discussion section of a manuscript describing the development of a particular COS. A limitation of the COS-STAR Statement is that it was developed without representative views of low- and middle-income countries. COS have equal relevance to studies conducted in these areas, and, subsequently, this guideline may need to evolve over time to encompass any additional challenges from developing COS in these areas.Conclusions: With many ongoing COS studies underway, the COS-STAR Statement should be a helpful resource to improve the reporting of COS studies for the benefit of all COS users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Vaccinating a buffer of individuals around a case (ring vaccination) has the potential to target those who are at highest risk of infection, reducing the number of doses needed to control a disease. We explored the potential vaccine effectiveness (VE) of oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) for such a strategy.Methods and Findings: This analysis uses existing data from a cluster-randomized clinical trial in which OCV or placebo was given to 71,900 participants in Kolkata, India, from 27 July to 10 September 2006. Cholera surveillance was then conducted on 144,106 individuals living in the study area, including trial participants, for 5 y following vaccination. First, we explored the risk of cholera among contacts of cholera patients, and, second, we measured VE among individuals living within 25 m of cholera cases between 8 and 28 d after onset of the index case. For the first analysis, individuals living around each index case identified during the 5-y period were assembled using a ring to define cohorts of individuals exposed to cholera index cases. An index control without cholera was randomly selected for each index case from the same population, matched by age group, and individuals living around each index control were assembled using a ring to define cohorts not exposed to cholera cases. Cholera attack rates among the exposed and non-exposed cohorts were compared using different distances from the index case/control to define the rings and different time frames to define the period at risk. For the VE analysis, the exposed cohorts were further stratified according to the level of vaccine coverage into high and low coverage strata. Overall VE was assessed by comparing the attack rates between high and low vaccine coverage strata irrespective of individuals' vaccination status, and indirect VE was assessed by comparing the attack rates among unvaccinated members between high and low vaccine coverage strata. Cholera risk among the cohort exposed to cholera cases was 5-11 times higher than that among the cohort not exposed to cholera cases. The risk gradually diminished with an increase in distance and time. The overall and indirect VE measured between 8 and 28 d after exposure to a cholera index case during the first 2 y was 91% (95% CI 62%-98%) and 93% (95% CI 44%-99%), respectively. VE persisted for 5 y after vaccination and was similar whether the index case was a young child (<5 y) or was older. Of note, this study was a reanalysis of a cholera vaccine trial that used two doses; thus, a limitation of the study relates to the assumption that a single dose, if administered quickly, will induce a similar level of total and indirect protection over the short term as did two doses.Conclusions: These findings suggest that high-level protection can be achieved if individuals living close to cholera cases are living in a high coverage ring. Since this was an observational study including participants who had received two doses of vaccine (or placebo) in the clinical trial, further studies are needed to determine whether a ring vaccination strategy, in which vaccine is given quickly to those living close to a case, is feasible and effective.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00289224. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The 2015 WHO recommendation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all immediately following HIV diagnosis is partially based on the anticipated impact on HIV incidence in the surrounding population. We investigated this approach in a cluster-randomised trial in a high HIV prevalence setting in rural KwaZulu-Natal. We present findings from the first phase of the trial and report on uptake of home-based HIV testing, linkage to care, uptake of ART, and community attitudes about ART.Methods and Findings: Between 9 March 2012 and 22 May 2014, five clusters in the intervention arm (immediate ART offered to all HIV-positive adults) and five clusters in the control arm (ART offered according to national guidelines, i.e., CD4 count ≤ 350 cells/μl) contributed to the first phase of the trial. Households were visited every 6 mo. Following informed consent and administration of a study questionnaire, each resident adult (≥16 y) was asked for a finger-prick blood sample, which was used to estimate HIV prevalence, and offered a rapid HIV test using a serial HIV testing algorithm. All HIV-positive adults were referred to the trial clinic in their cluster. Those not linked to care 3 mo after identification were contacted by a linkage-to-care team. Study procedures were not blinded. In all, 12,894 adults were registered as eligible for participation (5,790 in intervention arm; 7,104 in control arm), of whom 9,927 (77.0%) were contacted at least once during household visits. HIV status was ever ascertained for a total of 8,233/9,927 (82.9%), including 2,569 ascertained as HIV-positive (942 tested HIV-positive and 1,627 reported a known HIV-positive status). Of the 1,177 HIV-positive individuals not previously in care and followed for at least 6 mo in the trial, 559 (47.5%) visited their cluster trial clinic within 6 mo. In the intervention arm, 89% (194/218) initiated ART within 3 mo of their first clinic visit. In the control arm, 42.3% (83/196) had a CD4 count ≤ 350 cells/μl at first visit, of whom 92.8% initiated ART within 3 mo. Regarding attitudes about ART, 93% (8,802/9,460) of participants agreed with the statement that they would want to start ART as soon as possible if HIV-positive. Estimated baseline HIV prevalence was 30.5% (2,028/6,656) (95% CI 25.0%, 37.0%). HIV prevalence, uptake of home-based HIV testing, linkage to care within 6 mo, and initiation of ART within 3 mo in those with CD4 count ≤ 350 cells/μl did not differ significantly between the intervention and control clusters. Selection bias related to noncontact could not be entirely excluded.Conclusions: Home-based HIV testing was well received in this rural population, although men were less easily contactable at home; immediate ART was acceptable, with good viral suppression and retention. However, only about half of HIV-positive people accessed care within 6 mo of being identified, with nearly two-thirds accessing care by 12 mo. The observed delay in linkage to care would limit the individual and public health ART benefits of universal testing and treatment in this population.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01509508. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The anti-human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) monoclonal antibody trastuzumab improves outcomes in patients with node-positive HER2+ early breast cancer. Given trastuzumab's high cost, we aimed to estimate its cost-effectiveness by heterogeneity in age and estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) status, which has previously been unexplored, to assist prioritisation.Methods and Findings: A cost-utility analysis was performed using a Markov macro-simulation model, with a lifetime horizon, comparing a 12-mo regimen of trastuzumab with chemotherapy alone using the latest (2014) effectiveness measures from landmark randomised trials. A New Zealand (NZ) health system perspective was adopted, employing high-quality national administrative data. Incremental quality-adjusted life-years for trastuzumab versus chemotherapy alone are two times higher (2.33 times for the age group 50-54 y; 95% CI 2.29-2.37) for the worst prognosis (ER-/PR-) subtype compared to the best prognosis (ER+/PR+) subtype, causing incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for the former to be less than half those of the latter for the age groups from 25-29 to 90-94 y (0.44 times for the age group 50-54 y; 95% CI 0.43-0.45). If we were to strictly apply an arbitrary cost-effectiveness threshold equal to the NZ gross domestic product per capita (2011 purchasing power parity [PPP]-adjusted: US$30,300; €23,700; £21,200), our study suggests that trastuzumab (2011 PPP-adjusted US$45,400/€35,900/£21,900 for 1 y at formulary prices) may not be cost-effective for ER+ (which are 61% of all) node-positive HER2+ early breast cancer patients but cost-effective for ER-/PR- subtypes (37% of all cases) to age 69 y. Market entry of trastuzumab biosimilars will likely reduce the ICER to below this threshold for premenopausal ER+/PR- cancer but not for ER+/PR+ cancer. Sensitivity analysis using the best-case effectiveness measure for ER+ cancer had the same result. A key limitation was a lack of treatment-effect data by hormone receptor subtype. Heterogeneity was restricted to age and hormone receptor status; tumour size/grade heterogeneity could be explored in future work.Conclusions: This study highlights how cost-effectiveness can vary greatly by heterogeneity in age and hormone receptor subtype. Resource allocation and licensing of subsidised therapies such as trastuzumab should consider demographic and clinical heterogeneity; there is currently a profound disconnect between how funding decisions are made (largely agnostic to heterogeneity) and the principles of personalised medicine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Over 80% of the nearly 1 million men diagnosed with prostate cancer annually worldwide present with localised or locally advanced non-metastatic disease. Risk stratification is the cornerstone for clinical decision making and treatment selection for these men. The most widely applied stratification systems use presenting prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration, biopsy Gleason grade, and clinical stage to classify patients as low, intermediate, or high risk. There is, however, significant heterogeneity in outcomes within these standard groupings. The International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) has recently adopted a prognosis-based pathological classification that has yet to be included within a risk stratification system. Here we developed and tested a new stratification system based on the number of individual risk factors and incorporating the new ISUP prognostic score.Methods and Findings: Diagnostic clinicopathological data from 10,139 men with non-metastatic prostate cancer were available for this study from the Public Health England National Cancer Registration Service Eastern Office. This cohort was divided into a training set (n = 6,026; 1,557 total deaths, with 462 from prostate cancer) and a testing set (n = 4,113; 1,053 total deaths, with 327 from prostate cancer). The median follow-up was 6.9 y, and the primary outcome measure was prostate-cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). An external validation cohort (n = 1,706) was also used. Patients were first categorised as low, intermediate, or high risk using the current three-stratum stratification system endorsed by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines. The variables used to define the groups (PSA concentration, Gleason grading, and clinical stage) were then used to sub-stratify within each risk category by testing the individual and then combined number of risk factors. In addition, we incorporated the new ISUP prognostic score as a discriminator. Using this approach, a new five-stratum risk stratification system was produced, and its prognostic power was compared against the current system, with PCSM as the outcome. The results were analysed using a Cox hazards model, the log-rank test, Kaplan-Meier curves, competing-risks regression, and concordance indices. In the training set, the new risk stratification system identified distinct subgroups with different risks of PCSM in pair-wise comparison (p < 0.0001). Specifically, the new classification identified a very low-risk group (Group 1), a subgroup of intermediate-risk cancers with a low PCSM risk (Group 2, hazard ratio [HR] 1.62 [95% CI 0.96-2.75]), and a subgroup of intermediate-risk cancers with an increased PCSM risk (Group 3, HR 3.35 [95% CI 2.04-5.49]) (p < 0.0001). High-risk cancers were also sub-classified by the new system into subgroups with lower and higher PCSM risk: Group 4 (HR 5.03 [95% CI 3.25-7.80]) and Group 5 (HR 17.28 [95% CI 11.2-26.67]) (p < 0.0001), respectively. These results were recapitulated in the testing set and remained robust after inclusion of competing risks. In comparison to the current risk stratification system, the new system demonstrated improved prognostic performance, with a concordance index of 0.75 (95% CI 0.72-0.77) versus 0.69 (95% CI 0.66-0.71) (p < 0.0001). In an external cohort, the new system achieved a concordance index of 0.79 (95% CI 0.75-0.84) for predicting PCSM versus 0.66 (95% CI 0.63-0.69) (p < 0.0001) for the current NICE risk stratification system. The main limitations of the study were that it was registry based and that follow-up was relatively short.Conclusions: A novel and simple five-stratum risk stratification system outperforms the standard three-stratum risk stratification system in predicting the risk of PCSM at diagnosis in men with primary non-metastatic prostate cancer, even when accounting for competing risks. This model also allows delineation of new clinically relevant subgroups of men who might potentially receive more appropriate therapy for their disease. Future research will seek to validate our results in external datasets and will explore the value of including additional variables in the system in order in improve prognostic performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Observational studies have reported an association between obesity, as measured by elevated body mass index (BMI), in early adulthood and risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). However, bias potentially introduced by confounding and reverse causation may have influenced these findings. Therefore, we elected to perform Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to evaluate whether genetically increased BMI is associated with an increased risk of MS.Methods and Findings: Employing a two-sample MR approach, we used summary statistics from the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium and the International MS Genetics Consortium (IMSGC), the largest genome-wide association studies for BMI and MS, respectively (GIANT: n = 322,105; IMSGC: n = 14,498 cases and 24,091 controls). Seventy single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genome-wide significant (p < 5 x 10-8) for BMI in GIANT (n = 322,105) and were investigated for their association with MS risk in the IMSGC. The effect of each SNP on MS was weighted by its effect on BMI, and estimates were pooled to provide a summary measure for the effect of increased BMI upon risk of MS. Our results suggest that increased BMI influences MS susceptibility, where a 1 standard deviation increase in genetically determined BMI (kg/m2) increased odds of MS by 41% (odds ratio [OR]: 1.41, 95% CI 1.20-1.66, p = 2.7 x 10-5, I2 = 0%, 95% CI 0-29). Sensitivity analyses, including MR-Egger regression, and the weighted median approach provided no evidence of pleiotropic effects. The main study limitations are that, while these sensitivity analyses reduce the possibility that pleiotropy influenced our results, residual pleiotropy is difficult to exclude entirely.Conclusion: Genetically elevated BMI is associated with risk of MS, providing evidence for a causal role for obesity in MS etiology. While obesity has been associated with many late-life outcomes, these findings suggest an important consequence of childhood and/or early adulthood obesity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Margaret McGregor and colleagues consider Bradford Hill's framework for examining causation in observational research for the association between nursing home care quality and for-profit ownership. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Malaria transmission is highly heterogeneous, generating malaria hotspots that can fuel malaria transmission across a wider area. Targeting hotspots may represent an efficacious strategy for reducing malaria transmission. We determined the impact of interventions targeted to serologically defined malaria hotspots on malaria transmission both inside hotspots and in surrounding communities.Methods and Findings: Twenty-seven serologically defined malaria hotspots were detected in a survey conducted from 24 June to 31 July 2011 that included 17,503 individuals from 3,213 compounds in a 100-km2 area in Rachuonyo South District, Kenya. In a cluster-randomized trial from 22 March to 15 April 2012, we randomly allocated five clusters to hotspot-targeted interventions with larviciding, distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, indoor residual spraying, and focal mass drug administration (2,082 individuals in 432 compounds); five control clusters received malaria control following Kenyan national policy (2,468 individuals in 512 compounds). Our primary outcome measure was parasite prevalence in evaluation zones up to 500 m outside hotspots, determined by nested PCR (nPCR) at baseline and 8 wk (16 June-6 July 2012) and 16 wk (21 August-10 September 2012) post-intervention by technicians blinded to the intervention arm. Secondary outcome measures were parasite prevalence inside hotpots, parasite prevalence in the evaluation zone as a function of distance from the hotspot boundary, Anopheles mosquito density, mosquito breeding site productivity, malaria incidence by passive case detection, and the safety and acceptability of the interventions. Intervention coverage exceeded 87% for all interventions. Hotspot-targeted interventions did not result in a change in nPCR parasite prevalence outside hotspot boundaries (p ≥ 0.187). We observed an average reduction in nPCR parasite prevalence of 10.2% (95% CI -1.3 to 21.7%) inside hotspots 8 wk post-intervention that was statistically significant after adjustment for covariates (p = 0.024), but not 16 wk post-intervention (p = 0.265). We observed no statistically significant trend in the effect of the intervention on nPCR parasite prevalence in the evaluation zone in relation to distance from the hotspot boundary 8 wk (p = 0.27) or 16 wk post-intervention (p = 0.75). Thirty-six patients with clinical malaria confirmed by rapid diagnostic test could be located to intervention or control clusters, with no apparent difference between the study arms. In intervention clusters we caught an average of 1.14 female anophelines inside hotspots and 0.47 in evaluation zones; in control clusters we caught an average of 0.90 female anophelines inside hotspots and 0.50 in evaluation zones, with no apparent difference between study arms. Our trial was not powered to detect subtle effects of hotspot-targeted interventions nor designed to detect effects of interventions over multiple transmission seasons.Conclusions: Despite high coverage, the impact of interventions targeting malaria vectors and human infections on nPCR parasite prevalence was modest, transient, and restricted to the targeted hotspot areas. Our findings suggest that transmission may not primarily occur from hotspots to the surrounding areas and that areas with highly heterogeneous but widespread malaria transmission may currently benefit most from an untargeted community-wide approach. Hotspot-targeted approaches may have more validity in settings where human settlement is more nuclear.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01575613. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sulfonylureas are an effective and inexpensive treatment for type 2 diabetes. There is conflicting data about the safety of these drugs regarding mortality and cardiovascular outcomes. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the safety of the sulfonylureas most frequently used and to use trial sequential analysis (TSA) to analyze whether the available sample was powered enough to support the results.Methods and Findings: Electronic databases were reviewed from 1946 (Embase) or 1966 (MEDLINE) up to 31 December 2014. Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of at least 52 wk in duration evaluating second- or third-generation sulfonylureas in the treatment of adults with type 2 diabetes and reporting outcomes of interest were included. Primary outcomes were all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Additionally, myocardial infarction and stroke events were evaluated. Data were summarized with Peto odds ratios (ORs), and the reliability of the results was evaluated with TSA. Forty-seven RCTs with 37,650 patients and 890 deaths in total were included. Sulfonylureas were not associated with all-cause (OR 1.12 [95% CI 0.96 to 1.30]) or cardiovascular mortality (OR 1.12 [95% CI 0.87 to 1.42]). Sulfonylureas were also not associated with increased risk of myocardial infarction (OR 0.92 [95% CI 0.76 to 1.12]) or stroke (OR 1.16 [95% CI 0.81 to 1.66]). TSA could discard an absolute difference of 0.5% between the treatments, which was considered the minimal clinically significant difference. The major limitation of this review was the inclusion of studies not designed to evaluate safety outcomes.Conclusions: Sulfonylureas are not associated with increased risk for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Current evidence supports the safety of sulfonylureas; an absolute risk of 0.5% could be firmly discarded.Review Registration: PROSPERO CRD42014004330. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Systematic reviews of the effects of healthcare interventions frequently include non-randomized studies. These are subject to confounding and a range of other biases that are seldom considered in detail when synthesizing and interpreting the results. Our aims were to assess the reliability and usability of a new Cochrane risk of bias (RoB) tool for non-randomized studies of interventions and to determine whether restricting analysis to studies with low or moderate RoB made a material difference to the results of the reviews.Methods and Findings: We selected two systematic reviews of population-based, controlled non-randomized studies of the relationship between the use of thiazolidinediones (TZDs) and cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibitors and major cardiovascular events. Two epidemiologists applied the Cochrane RoB tool and made assessments across the seven specified domains of bias for each of 37 component studies. Inter-rater agreement was measured using the weighted Kappa statistic. We grouped studies according to overall RoB and performed statistical pooling for (a) all studies and (b) only studies with low or moderate RoB. Kappa scores across the seven bias domains ranged from 0.50 to 1.0. In the COX-2 inhibitor review, two studies had low overall RoB, 14 had moderate RoB, and five had serious RoB. In the TZD review, six studies had low RoB, four had moderate RoB, four had serious RoB, and two had critical RoB. The pooled odds ratios for myocardial infarction, heart failure, and death for rosiglitazone versus pioglitazone remained significantly elevated when analyses were confined to studies with low or moderate RoB. However, the estimate for myocardial infarction declined from 1.14 (95% CI 1.07-1.24) to 1.06 (95% CI 0.99-1.13) when analysis was confined to studies with low RoB. Estimates of pooled relative risks of cardiovascular events with COX-2 inhibitors compared with no nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug changed little when analyses were confined to studies with low or moderate RoB. The exception was a rise in the relative risk associated with ibuprofen from 1.07 (95% CI 0.97-1.18) to 1.14 (95% CI 1.03-1.26). The main limitation of our study was testing the instrument on a narrow range of pharmacoepidemiological studies; we cannot assume our findings extend to a broader range of interventions and settings.Conclusions: The Cochrane RoB tool highlighted a wide range of risks of bias in studies included in two widely cited reviews and had the potential to change the conclusions of the reviews. Systematic reviews that incorporate non-randomized studies of medical interventions should include a detailed assessment of RoB for each included study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a Perspective, Mark Tomlinson discusses research on early interventions to support child development in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: In a randomized controlled trial, Paul Bolton and colleagues investigate whether a transdiagnostic community-based intervention is effective for improving mental health symptoms among Burmese refugees in Thailand. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]