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Predictions of COVID-19 case growth and mortality are critical to the decisions of political leaders, businesses, and individuals grappling with the pandemic. This predictive task is challenging due to the novelty of the virus, limited data, and dynamic political and societal responses. We embed a Bayesian time series model and a random forest algorithm within an epidemiological compartmental model for empirically grounded COVID-19 predictions. The Bayesian case model fits a location-specific curve to the velocity (first derivative) of the log transformed cumulative case count, borrowing strength across geographic locations and incorporating prior information to obtain a posterior distribution for case trajectories. The compartmental model uses this distribution and predicts deaths using a random forest algorithm trained on COVID-19 data and population-level characteristics, yielding daily projections and interval estimates for cases and deaths in U.S. states. We evaluated the model by training it on progressively longer periods of the pandemic and computing its predictive accuracy over 21-day forecasts. The substantial variation in predicted trajectories and associated uncertainty between states is illustrated by comparing three unique locations: New York, Colorado, and West Virginia. The sophistication and accuracy of this COVID-19 model offer reliable predictions and uncertainty estimates for the current trajectory of the pandemic in the U.S. and provide a platform for future predictions as shifting political and societal responses alter its course., Author summary COVID-19 models can be roughly classified as mathematical models that simulate disease within a population, including epidemiological compartmental models, or statistical curve-fitting models that fit a function to observed data and extrapolate forward into the future. Bridging this divide, we combine the strengths of curve-fitting statistical models and the structure of epidemiological models, by embedding a Bayesian velocity model and a machine learning algorithm (random forest) into the framework of a compartmental model. Fusing these models together exploits the particular strengths of each to glean as much information as possible from the currently available data. We identify the velocity of log cumulative cases as an excellent target for modeling and extrapolating COVID-19 case trajectories. We empirically evaluate the predictive performance of the model and provide predicted trajectories with credible intervals for cumulative confirmed case count, active confirmed infections and COVID-19 deaths for each of the 50 U.S. states. Combining sophisticated data analytic methods with proven epidemiological models offers an empirically grounded strategy for making realistic predictions and quantifying their uncertainty. These predictions indicate substantial variation in the COVID-19 trajectories of U.S. states.

Persistent bacteremia caused by Staphylococcus aureus (SA), especially methicillin-resistant SA (MRSA), is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. Despite susceptibility phenotypes in vitro, persistent MRSA strains fail to clear with appropriate anti-MRSA therapy during bacteremia in vivo. Thus, identifying the factors that cause such MRSA persistence is of direct and urgent clinical relevance. To address the dynamics of MRSA persistence in the face of host immunity and typical antibiotic regimens, we developed a mathematical model based on the overarching assumption that phenotypic heterogeneity is a hallmark of MRSA persistence. First, we applied an ensemble modeling approach and obtained parameter sets that satisfied the condition of a minimum inoculum dose to establish infection. Second, by simulating with the selected parameter sets under vancomycin therapy which follows clinical practices, we distinguished the models resulting in resolving or persistent bacteremia, based on the total SA exceeding a detection limit after five days of treatment. Third, to find key determinants that discriminate resolving and persistent bacteremia, we applied a machine learning approach and found that the immune clearance rate of persister cells is a key feature. But, fourth, when relapsing bacteremia was considered, the growth rate of persister cells was also found to be a key feature. Finally, we explored pharmacological strategies for persistent and relapsing bacteremia and found that a persister killer, but not a persister formation inhibitor, could provide for an effective cure the persistent bacteremia. Thus, to develop better clinical solutions for MRSA persistence and relapse, our modeling results indicate that we need to better understand the pathogen-host interactions of persister MRSAs in vivo., Author summary Staphylococcus aureus causes potentially lethal infections of the bloodstream and target organs when able to enter the body, often via skin trauma or catheterization. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) resist common antibiotics, but are often successfully treated with vancomycin. However, in some MRSA patients, vancomycin is less effective. This results in persistent bacteremia, even though the isolates can be effectively killed in vitro. MRSA bacteria are thought to switch between two forms, normal and persister cells, that are genetically identical. Persisters, the minor subpopulation, are slow-growing and show lower susceptibility to vancomycin than normal MRSA. To understand the dynamic interplay between the two bacterial populations when challenged by host immunity and vancomycin treatment, we developed a mathematical model and analyzed it in simulations of clinically relevant scenarios. Our work suggests that the immune clearance rate of persister MRSA rather than the MRSA switch rate is a key determinant to establish persistent bacteremia. The model also suggests that increasing killing rate of persisters is a promising therapeutic strategy. Our findings emphasize the need to better understand the interactions of persister MRSAs with host cells and immune responses in vivo.