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Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in women and is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths annually. As with most cancers, it is a heterogeneous disease and different breast cancer subtypes are treated differently. Understanding the difference in prognosis for breast cancer based on its molecular and phenotypic features is one avenue for improving treatment by matching the proper treatment with molecular subtypes of the disease. In this work, we employed a competition-based approach to modeling breast cancer prognosis using large datasets containing genomic and clinical information and an online real-time leaderboard program used to speed feedback to the modeling team and to encourage each modeler to work towards achieving a higher ranked submission. We find that machine learning methods combined with molecular features selected based on expert prior knowledge can improve survival predictions compared to current best-in-class methodologies and that ensemble models trained across multiple user submissions systematically outperform individual models within the ensemble. We also find that model scores are highly consistent across multiple independent evaluations. This study serves as the pilot phase of a much larger competition open to the whole research community, with the goal of understanding general strategies for model optimization using clinical and molecular profiling data and providing an objective, transparent system for assessing prognostic models., Author Summary We developed an extensible software framework for sharing molecular prognostic models of breast cancer survival in a transparent collaborative environment and subjecting each model to automated evaluation using objective metrics. The computational framework presented in this study, our detailed post-hoc analysis of hundreds of modeling approaches, and the use of a novel cutting-edge data resource together represents one of the largest-scale systematic studies to date assessing the factors influencing accuracy of molecular-based prognostic models in breast cancer. Our results demonstrate the ability to infer prognostic models with accuracy on par or greater than previously reported studies, with significant performance improvements by using state-of-the-art machine learning approaches trained on clinical covariates. Our results also demonstrate the difficultly in incorporating molecular data to achieve substantial performance improvements over clinical covariates alone. However, improvement was achieved by combining clinical feature data with intelligent selection of important molecular features based on domain-specific prior knowledge. We observe that ensemble models aggregating the information across many diverse models achieve among the highest scores of all models and systematically out-perform individual models within the ensemble, suggesting a general strategy for leveraging the wisdom of crowds to develop robust predictive models.

Many biological and clinical outcomes are based not on single proteins, but on modules of proteins embedded in protein networks. A fundamental question is how the proteins within each module contribute to the overall module activity. Here, we study the modules underlying three representative biological programs related to tissue development, breast cancer metastasis, or progression of brain cancer, respectively. For each case we apply a new method, called Network-Guided Forests, to identify predictive modules together with logic functions which tie the activity of each module to the activity of its component genes. The resulting modules implement a diverse repertoire of decision logic which cannot be captured using the simple approximations suggested in previous work such as gene summation or subtraction. We show that in cancer, certain combinations of oncogenes and tumor suppressors exert competing forces on the system, suggesting that medical genetics should move beyond cataloguing individual cancer genes to cataloguing their combinatorial logic., Author Summary Biological outcomes are often determined by modules of proteins working in combination. In classic biological studies, these modules have been shown to encode a diverse repertoire of logic functions which provide the means to express complex regulatory programs using a limited number of proteins. Here, we integrate gene expression profiles and physical protein interaction maps to provide a systematic and global view of combinatorial network modules underlying representative developmental and cancer programs. We develop a new method that associates decision trees with concise network regions to identify network decision modules predictive of biological or clinical outcome. The resulting network signatures prove robust across different sample cohorts and capture causal mechanisms of development or disease. Furthermore, we find that the most predictive network decision functions rely on both coherent and opposing gene activities. Notably, in cancer progression the predictive gene associations often map to physical interactions between known oncogenes and tumor suppressors, where the combined activity of these genes determines disease outcome.