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Skeletal muscle contraction is initiated when an action potential triggers the release of Ca2+ into the sarcomere in a process referred to as excitation-contraction coupling. The speed and scale of this process makes direct observation very challenging and invasive. To determine how the concentration of Ca2+ changes within the myofibril during a single activation, several simulation models have been developed. These models follow a common pattern; divide the half sarcomere into a series of compartments, then use ordinary differential equations to solve reactions occurring within and between the compartments. To further develop this type of simulation, we have created a realistic structural model of a skeletal muscle myofibrillar half-sarcomere using MCell software that incorporates the myofilament lattice structure. Using this simulation model, we were successful in reproducing the averaged calcium transient during a single activation consistent with both the experimental and previous simulation results. In addition, our simulation demonstrated that the inclusion of the myofilament lattice within our model produced an asymmetric distribution of Ca2+, with more Ca2+ accumulating near the Z-disk and less Ca2+ reaching the m-line. This asymmetric distribution of Ca2+ is also apparent when we examine how the Ca2+ are bound to the troponin-c proteins along the actin filaments. Our simulation model also allowed us to produce advanced visualizations of this process, including two simulation animations, allowing us to view Ca2+ release, diffusion, binding and uptake within the myofibrillar half-sarcomere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present StochSS: Stochastic Simulation as a Service, an integrated development environment for modeling and simulation of both deterministic and discrete stochastic biochemical systems in up to three dimensions. An easy to use graphical user interface enables researchers to quickly develop and simulate a biological model on a desktop or laptop, which can then be expanded to incorporate increasing levels of complexity. StochSS features state-of-the-art simulation engines. As the demand for computational power increases, StochSS can seamlessly scale computing resources in the cloud. In addition, StochSS can be deployed as a multi-user software environment where collaborators share computational resources and exchange models via a public model repository. We demonstrate the capabilities and ease of use of StochSS with an example of model development and simulation at increasing levels of complexity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Calcium/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) holoenzymes play a critical role in decoding Ca2+ signals in neurons. Understanding how this occurs has been the focus of numerous studies including many that use models. However, CaMKII is notoriously difficult to simulate in detail because of its multi-subunit nature, which causes a combinatorial explosion in the number of species that must be modeled. To study the Ca2+-calmodulin-CaMKII reaction network with detailed kinetics while including the effect of diffusion, we have customized an existing stochastic particle-based simulator, Smoldyn, to manage the problem of combinatorial explosion. With this new method, spatial and temporal aspects of the signaling network can be studied without compromising biochemical details. We used this new method to examine how calmodulin molecules, both partially loaded and fully loaded with Ca2+, choose pathways to interact with and activate CaMKII under various Ca2+ input conditions. We found that the dependence of CaMKII phosphorylation on Ca2+ signal frequency is intrinsic to the network kinetics and the activation pattern can be modulated by the relative amount of Ca2+ to calmodulin and by the rate of Ca2+ diffusion. Depending on whether Ca2+ influx is saturating or not, calmodulin molecules could choose different routes within the network to activate CaMKII subunits, resulting in different frequency dependence patterns. In addition, the size of the holoenzyme produces a subtle effect on CaMKII activation. The more extended the subunits are organized, the easier for calmodulin molecules to access and activate the subunits. The findings suggest that particular intracellular environmental factors such as crowding and calmodulin availability can play an important role in decoding Ca2+ signals and can give rise to distinct CaMKII activation patterns in dendritic spines, Ca2+ channel nanodomains and cytoplasm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulation of biomolecular networks is now indispensable for studying biological systems, from small reaction networks to large ensembles of cells. Here we present a novel approach for stochastic simulation of networks embedded in the dynamic environment of the cell and its surroundings. We thus sample trajectories of the stochastic process described by the chemical master equation with time-varying propensities. A comparative analysis shows that existing approaches can either fail dramatically, or else can impose impractical computational burdens due to numerical integration of reaction propensities, especially when cell ensembles are studied. Here we introduce the Extrande method which, given a simulated time course of dynamic network inputs, provides a conditionally exact and several orders-of-magnitude faster simulation solution. The new approach makes it feasible to demonstrate—using decision-making by a large population of quorum sensing bacteria—that robustness to fluctuations from upstream signaling places strong constraints on the design of networks determining cell fate. Our approach has the potential to significantly advance both understanding of molecular systems biology and design of synthetic circuits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stochastic simulation has been a powerful tool for studying the dynamics of gene regulatory networks, particularly in terms of understanding how cell-phenotype stability and fate-transitions are impacted by noisy gene expression. However, gene networks often have dynamics characterized by multiple attractors. Stochastic simulation is often inefficient for such systems, because most of the simulation time is spent waiting for rare, barrier-crossing events to occur. We present a rare-event simulation-based method for computing epigenetic landscapes and phenotype-transitions in metastable gene networks. Our computational pipeline was inspired by studies of metastability and barrier-crossing in protein folding, and provides an automated means of computing and visualizing essential stationary and dynamic information that is generally inaccessible to conventional simulation. Applied to a network model of pluripotency in Embryonic Stem Cells, our simulations revealed rare phenotypes and approximately Markovian transitions among phenotype-states, occurring with a broad range of timescales. The relative probabilities of phenotypes and the transition paths linking pluripotency and differentiation are sensitive to global kinetic parameters governing transcription factor-DNA binding kinetics. Our approach significantly expands the capability of stochastic simulation to investigate gene regulatory network dynamics, which may help guide rational cell reprogramming strategies. Our approach is also generalizable to other types of molecular networks and stochastic dynamics frameworks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chemical reaction networks are ubiquitous in biology, and their dynamics is fundamentally stochastic. Here, we present the software library pSSAlib, which provides a complete and concise implementation of the most efficient partial-propensity methods for simulating exact stochastic chemical kinetics. pSSAlib can import models encoded in Systems Biology Markup Language, supports time delays in chemical reactions, and stochastic spatiotemporal reaction-diffusion systems. It also provides tools for statistical analysis of simulation results and supports multiple output formats. It has previously been used for studies of biochemical reaction pathways and to benchmark other stochastic simulation methods. Here, we describe pSSAlib in detail and apply it to a new model of the endocytic pathway in eukaryotic cells, leading to the discovery of a stochastic counterpart of the cut-out switch motif underlying early-to-late endosome conversion. pSSAlib is provided as a stand-alone command-line tool and as a developer API. We also provide a plug-in for the SBMLToolbox. The open-source code and pre-packaged installers are freely available from . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ligand binding to death receptors activates apoptosis in cancer cells. Stimulation of death receptors results in the formation of intracellular multiprotein platforms that either activate the apoptotic initiator Caspase-8 to trigger cell death, or signal through kinases to initiate inflammatory and cell survival signalling. Two of these platforms, the Death-Inducing Signalling Complex (DISC) and the RIPoptosome, also initiate necroptosis by building filamentous scaffolds that lead to the activation of mixed lineage kinase domain-like pseudokinase. To explain cell decision making downstream of death receptor activation, we developed a semi-stochastic model of DISC/RIPoptosome formation. The model is a hybrid of a direct Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithm for slow assembly of the RIPoptosome and a deterministic model of downstream caspase activation. The model explains how alterations in the level of death receptor-ligand complexes, their clustering properties and intrinsic molecular fluctuations in RIPoptosome assembly drive heterogeneous dynamics of Caspase-8 activation. The model highlights how kinetic proofreading leads to heterogeneous cell responses and results in fractional cell killing at low levels of receptor stimulation. It reveals that the noise in Caspase-8 activation—exclusively caused by the stochastic molecular assembly of the DISC/RIPoptosome platform—has a key function in extrinsic apoptotic stimuli recognition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across diverse biological systems—ranging from neural networks to intracellular signaling and genetic regulatory networks—the information about changes in the environment is frequently encoded in the full temporal dynamics of the network nodes. A pressing data-analysis challenge has thus been to efficiently estimate the amount of information that these dynamics convey from experimental data. Here we develop and evaluate decoding-based estimation methods to lower bound the mutual information about a finite set of inputs, encoded in single-cell high-dimensional time series data. For biological reaction networks governed by the chemical Master equation, we derive model-based information approximations and analytical upper bounds, against which we benchmark our proposed model-free decoding estimators. In contrast to the frequently-used k-nearest-neighbor estimator, decoding-based estimators robustly extract a large fraction of the available information from high-dimensional trajectories with a realistic number of data samples. We apply these estimators to previously published data on Erk and Ca2+ signaling in mammalian cells and to yeast stress-response, and find that substantial amount of information about environmental state can be encoded by non-trivial response statistics even in stationary signals. We argue that these single-cell, decoding-based information estimates, rather than the commonly-used tests for significant differences between selected population response statistics, provide a proper and unbiased measure for the performance of biological signaling networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Astrocytes, a glial cell type of the central nervous system, have emerged as detectors and regulators of neuronal information processing. Astrocyte excitability resides in transient variations of free cytosolic calcium concentration over a range of temporal and spatial scales, from sub-microdomains to waves propagating throughout the cell. Despite extensive experimental approaches, it is not clear how these signals are transmitted to and integrated within an astrocyte. The localization of the main molecular actors and the geometry of the system, including the spatial organization of calcium channels IP3R, are deemed essential. However, as most calcium signals occur in astrocytic ramifications that are too fine to be resolved by conventional light microscopy, most of those spatial data are unknown and computational modeling remains the only methodology to study this issue. Here, we propose an IP3R-mediated calcium signaling model for dynamics in such small sub-cellular volumes. To account for the expected stochasticity and low copy numbers, our model is both spatially explicit and particle-based. Extensive simulations show that spontaneous calcium signals arise in the model via the interplay between excitability and stochasticity. The model reproduces the main forms of calcium signals and indicates that their frequency crucially depends on the spatial organization of the IP3R channels. Importantly, we show that two processes expressing exactly the same calcium channels can display different types of calcium signals depending on the spatial organization of the channels. Our model with realistic process volume and calcium concentrations successfully reproduces spontaneous calcium signals that we measured in calcium micro-domains with confocal microscopy and predicts that local variations of calcium indicators might contribute to the diversity of calcium signals observed in astrocytes. To our knowledge, this model is the first model suited to investigate calcium dynamics in fine astrocytic processes and to propose plausible mechanisms responsible for their variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most biological systems are difficult to analyse due to a multitude of interacting components and the concomitant lack of information about the essential dynamics. Finding appropriate models that provide a systematic description of such biological systems and that help to identify their relevant factors and processes can be challenging given the sheer number of possibilities. Model selection algorithms that evaluate the performance of a multitude of different models against experimental data provide a useful tool to identify appropriate model structures. However, many algorithms addressing the analysis of complex dynamical systems, as they are often used in biology, compare a preselected number of models or rely on exhaustive searches of the total model space which might be unfeasible dependent on the number of possibilities. Therefore, we developed an algorithm that is able to perform model selection on complex systems and searches large model spaces in a dynamical way. Our algorithm includes local and newly developed non-local search methods that can prevent the algorithm from ending up in local minima of the model space by accounting for structurally similar processes. We tested and validated the algorithm based on simulated data and showed its flexibility for handling different model structures. We also used the algorithm to analyse experimental data on the cell proliferation dynamics of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells that were cultured under different conditions. Our analyses indicated dynamical changes within the proliferation potential of cells that was reduced within tissue-like 3D ex vivo cultures compared to suspension. Due to the flexibility in handling various model structures, the algorithm is applicable to a large variety of different biological problems and represents a useful tool for the data-oriented evaluation of complex model spaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantification of the effect of spatial tumour sampling on the patterns of mutations detected in next-generation sequencing data is largely lacking. Here we use a spatial stochastic cellular automaton model of tumour growth that accounts for somatic mutations, selection, drift and spatial constraints, to simulate multi-region sequencing data derived from spatial sampling of a neoplasm. We show that the spatial structure of a solid cancer has a major impact on the detection of clonal selection and genetic drift from both bulk and single-cell sequencing data. Our results indicate that spatial constrains can introduce significant sampling biases when performing multi-region bulk sampling and that such bias becomes a major confounding factor for the measurement of the evolutionary dynamics of human tumours. We also propose a statistical inference framework that incorporates spatial effects within a growing tumour and so represents a further step forwards in the inference evolutionary dynamics from genomic data. Our analysis shows that measuring cancer evolution using next-generation sequencing while accounting for the numerous confounding factors remains challenging. However, mechanistic model-based approaches have the potential to capture the sources of noise and better interpret the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emergence of replicases that can replicate themselves is a central issue in the origin of life. Recent experiments suggest that such replicases can be realized if an RNA polymerase ribozyme is divided into fragments short enough to be replicable by the ribozyme and if these fragments self-assemble into a functional ribozyme. However, the continued self-replication of such replicases requires that the production of every essential fragment be balanced and sustained. Here, we use mathematical modeling to investigate whether and under what conditions fragmented replicases achieve continued self-replication. We first show that under a simple batch condition, the replicases fail to display continued self-replication owing to positive feedback inherent in these replicases. This positive feedback inevitably biases replication toward a subset of fragments, so that the replicases eventually fail to sustain the production of all essential fragments. We then show that this inherent instability can be resolved by small rates of random content exchange between loose compartments (i.e., horizontal transfer). In this case, the balanced production of all fragments is achieved through negative frequency-dependent selection operating in the population dynamics of compartments. The horizontal transfer also ensures the presence of all essential fragments in each compartment, sustaining self-replication. Taken together, our results underline compartmentalization and horizontal transfer in the origin of the first self-replicating replicases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis methods based on simulations and optimization have been previously developed to estimate relative translation rates from next-generation sequencing data. Translation involves molecules and chemical reactions, hence bioinformatics methods consistent with the laws of chemistry and physics are more likely to produce accurate results. Here, we derive simple equations based on chemical kinetic principles to measure the translation-initiation rate, transcriptome-wide elongation rate, and individual codon translation rates from ribosome profiling experiments. Our methods reproduce the known rates from ribosome profiles generated from detailed simulations of translation. By applying our methods to data from S. cerevisiae and mouse embryonic stem cells, we find that the extracted rates reproduce expected correlations with various molecular properties, and we also find that mouse embryonic stem cells have a global translation speed of 5.2 AA/s, in agreement with previous reports that used other approaches. Our analysis further reveals that a codon can exhibit up to 26-fold variability in its translation rate depending upon its context within a transcript. This broad distribution means that the average translation rate of a codon is not representative of the rate at which most instances of that codon are translated, and it suggests that translational regulation might be used by cells to a greater degree than previously thought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The inherent capacity of somatic cells to switch their phenotypic status in response to damage stimuli in vivo might have a pivotal role in ageing and cancer. However, how the entry-exit mechanisms of phenotype reprogramming are established remains poorly understood. In an attempt to elucidate such mechanisms, we herein introduce a stochastic model of combined epigenetic regulation (ER)-gene regulatory network (GRN) to study the plastic phenotypic behaviours driven by ER heterogeneity. To deal with such complex system, we additionally formulate a multiscale asymptotic method for stochastic model reduction, from which we derive an efficient hybrid simulation scheme. Our analysis of the coupled system reveals a regime of tristability in which pluripotent stem-like and differentiated steady-states coexist with a third indecisive state, with ER driving transitions between these states. Crucially, ER heterogeneity of differentiation genes is for the most part responsible for conferring abnormal robustness to pluripotent stem-like states. We formulate epigenetic heterogeneity-based strategies capable of unlocking and facilitating the transit from differentiation-refractory (stem-like) to differentiation-primed epistates. The application of the hybrid numerical method validates the likelihood of such switching involving solely kinetic changes in epigenetic factors. Our results suggest that epigenetic heterogeneity regulates the mechanisms and kinetics of phenotypic robustness of cell fate reprogramming. The occurrence of tunable switches capable of modifying the nature of cell fate reprogramming might pave the way for new therapeutic strategies to regulate reparative reprogramming in ageing and cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

West Nile virus (WNV)—a mosquito-borne arbovirus—entered the USA through New York City in 1999 and spread to the contiguous USA within three years while transitioning from epidemic outbreaks to endemic transmission. The virus is transmitted by vector competent mosquitoes and maintained in the avian populations. WNV spatial distribution is mainly determined by the movement of residential and migratory avian populations. We developed an individual-level heterogeneous network framework across the USA with the goal of understanding the long-range spatial distribution of WNV. To this end, we proposed three distance dispersal kernels model: 1) exponential—short-range dispersal, 2) power-law—long-range dispersal in all directions, and 3) power-law biased by flyway direction —long-range dispersal only along established migratory routes. To select the appropriate dispersal kernel we used the human case data and adopted a model selection framework based on approximate Bayesian computation with sequential Monte Carlo sampling (ABC-SMC). From estimated parameters, we find that the power-law biased by flyway direction kernel is the best kernel to fit WNV human case data, supporting the hypothesis of long-range WNV transmission is mainly along the migratory bird flyways. Through extensive simulation from 2014 to 2016, we proposed and tested hypothetical mitigation strategies and found that mosquito population reduction in the infected states and neighboring states is potentially cost-effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interacting-particle reaction dynamics (iPRD) combines the simulation of dynamical trajectories of interacting particles as in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with reaction kinetics, in which particles appear, disappear, or change their type and interactions based on a set of reaction rules. This combination facilitates the simulation of reaction kinetics in crowded environments, involving complex molecular geometries such as polymers, and employing complex reaction mechanisms such as breaking and fusion of polymers. iPRD simulations are ideal to simulate the detailed spatiotemporal reaction mechanism in complex and dense environments, such as in signalling processes at cellular membranes, or in nano- to microscale chemical reactors. Here we introduce the iPRD software ReaDDy 2, which provides a Python interface in which the simulation environment, particle interactions and reaction rules can be conveniently defined and the simulation can be run, stored and analyzed. A C++ interface is available to enable deeper and more flexible interactions with the framework. The main computational work of ReaDDy 2 is done in hardware-specific simulation kernels. While the version introduced here provides single- and multi-threading CPU kernels, the architecture is ready to implement GPU and multi-node kernels. We demonstrate the efficiency and validity of ReaDDy 2 using several benchmark examples. ReaDDy 2 is available at the website. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenotypical variability in the absence of genetic variation often reflects complex energetic landscapes associated with underlying gene regulatory networks (GRNs). In this view, different phenotypes are associated with alternative states of complex nonlinear systems: stable attractors in deterministic models or modes of stationary distributions in stochastic descriptions. We provide theoretical and practical characterizations of these landscapes, specifically focusing on stochastic Slow Promoter Kinetics (SPK), a time scale relevant when transcription factor binding and unbinding are affected by epigenetic processes like DNA methylation and chromatin remodeling. In this case, largely unexplored except for numerical simulations, adiabatic approximations of promoter kinetics are not appropriate. In contrast to the existing literature, we provide rigorous analytic characterizations of multiple modes. A general formal approach gives insight into the influence of parameters and the prediction of how changes in GRN wiring, for example through mutations or artificial interventions, impact the possible number, location, and likelihood of alternative states. We adapt tools from the mathematical field of singular perturbation theory to represent stationary distributions of Chemical Master Equations for GRNs as mixtures of Poisson distributions and obtain explicit formulas for the locations and probabilities of metastable states as a function of the parameters describing the system. As illustrations, the theory is used to tease out the role of cooperative binding in stochastic models in comparison to deterministic models, and applications are given to various model systems, such as toggle switches in isolation or in communicating populations, a synthetic oscillator, and a trans-differentiation network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a degenerative condition caused by dysregulation of multiple molecular signalling pathways. Such dysregulation results in damage to cartilage, a smooth and protective tissue that enables low friction articulation of synovial joints. Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs), especially MMP-13, are key enzymes in the cleavage of type II collagen which is a vital component for cartilage integrity. Transforming growth factor beta (TGFβ) can protect against pro-inflammatory cytokine-mediated MMP expression. With age there is a change in the ratio of two TGFβ type I receptors (Alk1/Alk5), a shift that results in TGFβ losing its protective role in cartilage homeostasis. Instead, TGFβ promotes cartilage degradation which correlates with the spontaneous development of OA in murine models. However, the mechanism by which TGFβ protects against pro-inflammatory responses and how this changes with age has not been extensively studied. As TGFβ signalling is complex, we used systems biology to combine experimental and computational outputs to examine how the system changes with age. Experiments showed that the repressive effect of TGFβ on chondrocytes treated with a pro-inflammatory stimulus required Alk5. Computational modelling revealed two independent mechanisms were needed to explain the crosstalk between TGFβ and pro-inflammatory signalling pathways. A novel meta-analysis of microarray data from OA patient tissue was used to create a Cytoscape network representative of human OA and revealed the importance of inflammation. Combining the modelled genes with the microarray network provided a global overview into the crosstalk between the different signalling pathways involved in OA development. Our results provide further insights into the mechanisms that cause TGFβ signalling to change from a protective to a detrimental pathway in cartilage with ageing. Moreover, such a systems biology approach may enable restoration of the protective role of TGFβ as a potential therapy to prevent age-related loss of cartilage and the development of OA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Receptor tyrosine kinases (RTKs) typically contain multiple autophosphorylation sites in their cytoplasmic domains. Once activated, these autophosphorylation sites can recruit downstream signaling proteins containing Src homology 2 (SH2) and phosphotyrosine-binding (PTB) domains, which recognize phosphotyrosine-containing short linear motifs (SLiMs). These domains and SLiMs have polyspecific or promiscuous binding activities. Thus, multiple signaling proteins may compete for binding to a common SLiM and vice versa. To investigate the effects of competition on RTK signaling, we used a rule-based modeling approach to develop and analyze models for ligand-induced recruitment of SH2/PTB domain-containing proteins to autophosphorylation sites in the insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1) receptor (IGF1R). Models were parameterized using published datasets reporting protein copy numbers and site-specific binding affinities. Simulations were facilitated by a novel application of model restructuration, to reduce redundancy in rule-derived equations. We compare predictions obtained via numerical simulation of the model to those obtained through simple prediction methods, such as through an analytical approximation, or ranking by copy number and/or KD value, and find that the simple methods are unable to recapitulate the predictions of numerical simulations. We created 45 cell line-specific models that demonstrate how early events in IGF1R signaling depend on the protein abundance profile of a cell. Simulations, facilitated by model restructuration, identified pairs of IGF1R binding partners that are recruited in anti-correlated and correlated fashions, despite no inclusion of cooperativity in our models. This work shows that the outcome of competition depends on the physicochemical parameters that characterize pairwise interactions, as well as network properties, including network connectivity and the relative abundances of competitors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How does pattern formation occur accurately when confronted with tissue growth and stochastic fluctuations (noise) in gene expression? Dorso-ventral (D-V) patterning of the mandibular arch specifies upper versus lower jaw skeletal elements through a combination of Bone morphogenetic protein (Bmp), Endothelin-1 (Edn1), and Notch signaling, and this system is highly robust. We combine NanoString experiments of early D-V gene expression with live imaging of arch development in zebrafish to construct a computational model of the D-V mandibular patterning network. The model recapitulates published genetic perturbations in arch development. Patterning is most sensitive to changes in Bmp signaling, and the temporal order of gene expression modulates the response of the patterning network to noise. Thus, our integrated systems biology approach reveals non-intuitive features of the complex signaling system crucial for craniofacial development, including novel insights into roles of gene expression timing and stochasticity in signaling and gene regulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The size of a cell sets the scale for all biochemical processes within it, thereby affecting cellular fitness and survival. Hence, cell size needs to be kept within certain limits and relatively constant over multiple generations. However, how cells measure their size and use this information to regulate growth and division remains controversial. Here, we present two mechanistic mathematical models of the budding yeast (S. cerevisiae) cell cycle to investigate competing hypotheses on size control: inhibitor dilution and titration of nuclear sites. Our results suggest that an inhibitor-dilution mechanism, in which cell growth dilutes the transcriptional inhibitor Whi5 against the constant activator Cln3, can facilitate size homeostasis. This is achieved by utilising a positive feedback loop to establish a fixed size threshold for the transition, which efficiently couples cell growth to cell cycle progression. Yet, we show that inhibitor dilution cannot reproduce the size of mutants that alter the cell’s overall ploidy and WHI5 gene copy number. By contrast, size control through titration of Cln3 against a constant number of genomic binding sites for the transcription factor SBF recapitulates both size homeostasis and the size of these mutant strains. Moreover, this model produces an imperfect ‘sizer’ behaviour in G1 and a ‘timer’ in S/G2/M, which combine to yield an ‘adder’ over the whole cell cycle; an observation recently made in experiments. Hence, our model connects these phenomenological data with the molecular details of the cell cycle, providing a systems-level perspective of budding yeast size control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fly development amazes us by the precision and reproducibility of gene expression, especially since the initial expression patterns are established during very short nuclear cycles. Recent live imaging of hunchback promoter dynamics shows a stable steep binary expression pattern established within the three minute interphase of nuclear cycle 11. Considering expression models of different complexity, we explore the trade-off between the ability of a regulatory system to produce a steep boundary and minimize expression variability between different nuclei. We show how a limited readout time imposed by short developmental cycles affects the gene’s ability to read positional information along the embryo’s anterior posterior axis and express reliably. Comparing our theoretical results to real-time monitoring of the hunchback transcription dynamics in live flies, we discuss possible regulatory strategies, suggesting an important role for additional binding sites, gradients or non-equilibrium binding and modified transcription factor search strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

CD95/Fas/APO-1 is a member of the death receptor family that triggers apoptotic and anti-apoptotic responses in particular, NF-κB. These responses are characterized by a strong heterogeneity within a population of cells. To determine how the cell decides between life and death we developed a computational model supported by imaging flow cytometry analysis of CD95 signaling. Here we show that CD95 stimulation leads to the induction of caspase and NF-kB pathways simultaneously in one cell. The related life/death decision strictly depends on cell-to-cell variability in the formation of the death-inducing complex (DISC) on one side (extrinsic noise) vs. stochastic gene expression of the NF-kB pathway on the other side (intrinsic noise). Moreover, our analysis has uncovered that the stochasticity in apoptosis and NF-kB pathways leads not only to survival or death of a cell, but also causes a third type of response to CD95 stimulation that we termed ambivalent response. Cells in the ambivalent state can undergo cell death or survive which was subsequently validated by experiments. Taken together, we have uncovered how these two competing pathways control the fate of a cell, which in turn plays an important role for development of anti-cancer therapies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spikes on virus surfaces bind receptors on host cells to propagate infection. High spike densities (SDs) can promote infection, but spikes are also targets of antibody-mediated immune responses. Thus, diverse evolutionary pressures can influence virus SDs. HIV’s SD is about two orders of magnitude lower than that of other viruses, a surprising feature of unknown origin. By modeling antibody evolution through affinity maturation, we find that an intermediate SD maximizes the affinity of generated antibodies. We argue that this leads most viruses to evolve high SDs. T helper cells, which are depleted during early HIV infection, play a key role in antibody evolution. We find that T helper cell depletion results in high affinity antibodies when SD is high, but not if SD is low. This special feature of HIV infection may have led to the evolution of a low SD to avoid potent immune responses early in infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The molecular makeup of the offspring of a dividing cell gradually becomes phenotypically decorrelated from the parent cell by noise and regulatory mechanisms that amplify phenotypic heterogeneity. Such regulatory mechanisms form networks that contain thresholds between phenotypes. Populations of cells can be poised near the threshold so that a subset of the population probabilistically undergoes the phenotypic transition. We sought to characterize the diversity of bacterial populations around a growth-modulating threshold via analysis of the effect of non-genetic inheritance, similar to conditions that create antibiotic-tolerant persister cells and other examples of bet hedging. Using simulations and experimental lineage data in Escherichia coli, we present evidence that regulation of growth amplifies the dependence of growth arrest on cellular lineage, causing clusters of related cells undergo growth arrest in certain conditions. Our simulations predict that lineage correlations and the sensitivity of growth to changes in toxin levels coincide in a critical regime. Below the critical regime, the sizes of related growth arrested clusters are distributed exponentially, while in the critical regime clusters sizes are more likely to become large. Furthermore, phenotypic diversity can be nearly as high as possible near the critical regime, but for most parameter values it falls far below the theoretical limit. We conclude that lineage information is indispensable for understanding regulation of cellular growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precise positioning of the cell division site is essential for the correct segregation of the genetic material into the two daughter cells. In the bacterium Myxococcus xanthus, the proteins PomX and PomY form a cluster on the chromosome that performs a biased random walk to midcell and positively regulates cell division there. PomZ, an ATPase, is necessary for tethering of the cluster to the nucleoid and regulates its movement towards midcell. It has remained unclear how the cluster dynamics change when the biochemical parameters, such as the attachment rates of PomZ dimers to the nucleoid and the cluster, the ATP hydrolysis rate of PomZ or the mobility of PomZ interacting with the nucleoid and cluster, are varied. To answer these questions, we investigate a one-dimensional model that includes the nucleoid, the Pom cluster and PomZ proteins. We find that a mechanism based on the diffusive PomZ fluxes on the nucleoid into the cluster can explain the latter’s midnucleoid localization for a broad parameter range. Furthermore, there is an ATP hydrolysis rate that minimizes the time the cluster needs to reach midnucleoid. If the dynamics of PomZ on the nucleoid is slow relative to the cluster’s velocity, we observe oscillatory cluster movements around midnucleoid. To understand midnucleoid localization, we developed a semi-analytical approach that dissects the net movement of the cluster into its components: the difference in PomZ fluxes into the cluster from either side, the force exerted by a single PomZ dimer on the cluster and the effective friction coefficient of the cluster. Importantly, we predict that the Pom cluster oscillates around midnucleoid if the diffusivity of PomZ on the nucleoid is reduced. A similar approach to that applied here may also prove useful for cargo localization in ParABS systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the event of a new infectious disease outbreak, mathematical and simulation models are commonly used to inform policy by evaluating which control strategies will minimize the impact of the epidemic. In the early stages of such outbreaks, substantial parameter uncertainty may limit the ability of models to provide accurate predictions, and policymakers do not have the luxury of waiting for data to alleviate this state of uncertainty. For policymakers, however, it is the selection of the optimal control intervention in the face of uncertainty, rather than accuracy of model predictions, that is the measure of success that counts. We simulate the process of real-time decision-making by fitting an epidemic model to observed, spatially-explicit, infection data at weekly intervals throughout two historical outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease, UK in 2001 and Miyazaki, Japan in 2010, and compare forward simulations of the impact of switching to an alternative control intervention at the time point in question. These are compared to policy recommendations generated in hindsight using data from the entire outbreak, thereby comparing the best we could have done at the time with the best we could have done in retrospect. Our results show that the control policy that would have been chosen using all the data is also identified from an early stage in an outbreak using only the available data, despite high variability in projections of epidemic size. Critically, we find that it is an improved understanding of the locations of infected farms, rather than improved estimates of transmission parameters, that drives improved prediction of the relative performance of control interventions. However, the ability to estimate undetected infectious premises is a function of uncertainty in the transmission parameters. Here, we demonstrate the need for both real-time model fitting and generating projections to evaluate alternative control interventions throughout an outbreak. Our results highlight the use of using models at outbreak onset to inform policy and the importance of state-dependent interventions that adapt in response to additional information throughout an outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nerve cells produce electrical impulses (“spikes”) through the coordinated opening and closing of ion channels. Markov processes with voltage-dependent transition rates capture the stochasticity of spike generation at the cost of complex, time-consuming simulations. Schmandt and Galán introduced a novel method, based on the stochastic shielding approximation, as a fast, accurate method for generating approximate sample paths with excellent first and second moment agreement to exact stochastic simulations. We previously analyzed the mathematical basis for the method’s remarkable accuracy, and showed that for models with a Gaussian noise approximation, the stationary variance of the occupancy at each vertex in the ion channel state graph could be written as a sum of distinct contributions from each edge in the graph. We extend this analysis to arbitrary discrete population models with first-order kinetics. The resulting decomposition allows us to rank the “importance” of each edge’s contribution to the variance of the current under stationary conditions. In most cases, transitions between open (conducting) and closed (non-conducting) states make the greatest contributions to the variance, but there are exceptions. In a 5-state model of the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor, at low agonist concentration, a pair of “hidden” transitions (between two closed states) makes a greater contribution to the variance than any of the open-closed transitions. We exhaustively investigate this “edge importance reversal” phenomenon in simplified 3-state models, and obtain an exact formula for the contribution of each edge to the variance of the open state. Two conditions contribute to reversals: the opening rate should be faster than all other rates in the system, and the closed state leading to the opening rate should be sparsely occupied. When edge importance reversal occurs, current fluctuations are dominated by a slow noise component arising from the hidden transitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The considerable difficulty encountered in reproducing the results of published dynamical models limits validation, exploration and reuse of this increasingly large biomedical research resource. To address this problem, we have developed Tellurium Notebook, a software system for model authoring, simulation, and teaching that facilitates building reproducible dynamical models and reusing models by 1) providing a notebook environment which allows models, Python code, and narrative to be intermixed, 2) supporting the COMBINE archive format during model development for capturing model information in an exchangeable format and 3) enabling users to easily simulate and edit public COMBINE-compliant models from public repositories to facilitate studying model dynamics, variants and test cases. Tellurium Notebook, a Python–based Jupyter–like environment, is designed to seamlessly inter-operate with these community standards by automating conversion between COMBINE standards formulations and corresponding in–line, human–readable representations. Thus, Tellurium brings to systems biology the strategy used by other literate notebook systems such as Mathematica. These capabilities allow users to edit every aspect of the standards–compliant models and simulations, run the simulations in–line, and re–export to standard formats. We provide several use cases illustrating the advantages of our approach and how it allows development and reuse of models without requiring technical knowledge of standards. Adoption of Tellurium should accelerate model development, reproducibility and reuse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many types of large cells have multiple nuclei. In skeletal muscle fibers, the nuclei are distributed along the cell to maximize their internuclear distances. This myonuclear positioning is crucial for cell function. Although microtubules, microtubule associated proteins, and motors have been implicated, mechanisms responsible for myonuclear positioning remain unclear. We used a combination of rough interacting particle and detailed agent-based modeling to examine computationally the hypothesis that a force balance generated by microtubules positions the muscle nuclei. Rather than assuming the nature and identity of the forces, we simulated various types of forces between the pairs of nuclei and between the nuclei and cell boundary to position the myonuclei according to the laws of mechanics. We started with a large number of potential interacting particle models and computationally screened these models for their ability to fit biological data on nuclear positions in hundreds of Drosophila larval muscle cells. This reverse engineering approach resulted in a small number of feasible models, the one with the best fit suggests that the nuclei repel each other and the cell boundary with forces that decrease with distance. The model makes nontrivial predictions about the increased nuclear density near the cell poles, the zigzag patterns of the nuclear positions in wider cells, and about correlations between the cell width and elongated nuclear shapes, all of which we confirm by image analysis of the biological data. We support the predictions of the interacting particle model with simulations of an agent-based mechanical model. Taken together, our data suggest that microtubules growing from nuclear envelopes push on the neighboring nuclei and the cell boundaries, which is sufficient to establish the nearly-uniform nuclear spreading observed in muscle fibers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The localization (or polarization) of proteins on the membrane during the mating of budding yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) is an important model system for understanding simple pattern formation within cells. While there are many existing mathematical models of polarization, for both budding and mating, there are still many aspects of this process that are not well understood. In this paper we set out to elucidate the effect that the geometry of the cell can have on the dynamics of certain models of polarization. Specifically, we look at several spatial stochastic models of Cdc42 polarization that have been adapted from published models, on a variety of tip-shaped geometries, to replicate the shape change that occurs during the growth of the mating projection. We show here that there is a complex interplay between the dynamics of polarization and the shape of the cell. Our results show that while models of polarization can generate a stable polarization cap, its localization at the tip of mating projections is unstable, with the polarization cap drifting away from the tip of the projection in a geometry dependent manner. We also compare predictions from our computational results to experiments that observe cells with projections of varying lengths, and track the stability of the polarization cap. Lastly, we examine one model of actin polarization and show that it is unlikely, at least for the models studied here, that actin dynamics and vesicle traffic are able to overcome this effect of geometry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Important cellular processes such as migration, differentiation, and development often rely on precise timing. Yet, the molecular machinery that regulates timing is inherently noisy. How do cells achieve precise timing with noisy components? We investigate this question using a first-passage-time approach, for an event triggered by a molecule that crosses an abundance threshold and that is regulated by either an accumulating activator or a diminishing repressor. We find that either activation or repression outperforms an unregulated strategy. The optimal regulation corresponds to a nonlinear increase in the amount of the target molecule over time, arises from a tradeoff between minimizing the timing noise of the regulator and that of the target molecule itself, and is robust to additional effects such as bursts and cell division. Our results are in quantitative agreement with the nonlinear increase and low noise of mig-1 gene expression in migrating neuroblast cells during Caenorhabditis elegans development. These findings suggest that dynamic regulation may be a simple and powerful strategy for precise cellular timing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In long-term potentiation (LTP), one of the most studied types of neural plasticity, synaptic strength is persistently increased in response to stimulation. Although a number of different proteins have been implicated in the sub-cellular molecular processes underlying induction and maintenance of LTP, the precise mechanisms remain unknown. A particular challenge is to demonstrate that a proposed molecular mechanism can provide the level of stability needed to maintain memories for months or longer, in spite of the fact that many of the participating molecules have much shorter life spans. Here we present a computational model that combines simulations of several biochemical reactions that have been suggested in the LTP literature and show that the resulting system does exhibit the required stability. At the core of the model are two interlinked feedback loops of molecular reactions, one involving the atypical protein kinase PKMζ and its messenger RNA, the other involving PKMζ and GluA2-containing AMPA receptors. We demonstrate that robust bistability–stable equilibria both in the synapse’s potentiated and unpotentiated states–can arise from a set of simple molecular reactions. The model is able to account for a wide range of empirical results, including induction and maintenance of late-phase LTP, cellular memory reconsolidation and the effects of different pharmaceutical interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with the potential multistability of protein concentrations in the cell. That is, situations where one, or a family of, proteins may sit at one of two or more different steady state concentrations in otherwise identical cells, and in spite of them being in the same environment. For models of multisite protein phosphorylation for example, in the presence of excess substrate, it has been shown that the achievable number of stable steady states can increase linearly with the number of phosphosites available. In this paper, we analyse the consequences of adding enzyme docking to these and similar models, with the resultant sequestration of phosphatase and kinase by the fully unphosphorylated and by the fully phosphorylated substrates respectively. In the large molecule numbers limit, where deterministic analysis is applicable, we prove that there are always values for these rates of sequestration which, when exceeded, limit the extent of multistability. For the models considered here, these numbers are much smaller than the affinity of the enzymes to the substrate when it is in a modifiable state. As substrate enzyme-sequestration is increased, we further prove that the number of steady states will inevitably be reduced to one. For smaller molecule numbers a stochastic analysis is more appropriate, where multistability in the large molecule numbers limit can manifest itself as multimodality of the probability distribution; the system spending periods of time in the vicinity of one mode before jumping to another. Here, we find that substrate enzyme sequestration can induce bimodality even in systems where only a single steady state can exist at large numbers. To facilitate this analysis, we develop a weakly chained diagonally dominant M-matrix formulation of the Chemical Master Equation, allowing greater insights in the way particular mechanisms, like enzyme sequestration, can shape probability distributions and therefore exhibit different behaviour across different regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patients with Herpes Simplex Virus-2 (HSV-2) infection face a significantly higher risk of contracting HIV-1. This is thought to be due to herpetic lesions serving as entry points for HIV-1 and tissue-resident CD4+ T cell counts increasing during HSV-2 lesional events. We have created a stochastic and spatial mathematical model describing the dynamics of HSV-2 infection and immune response in the genital mucosa. Using our model, we first study the dynamics of a developing HSV-2 lesion. We then use our model to quantify the risk of infection with HIV-1 following sexual exposure in HSV-2 positive women. Untreated, we find that HSV-2 infected women are up to 8.6 times more likely to acquire HIV-1 than healthy patients. However, when including the effects of the HSV-2 antival drug, pritelivir, the risk of HIV-1 infection is predicted to decrease by up to 35%, depending on drug dosage. We estimate the relative importance of decreased tissue damage versus decreased CD4+ cell presence in determining the effectiveness of pritelivir in reducing HIV-1 infection. Our results suggest that clinical trials should be performed to evaluate the effectiveness of pritelivir or similar agents in preventing HIV-1 infection in HSV-2 positive women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical models for simulating outbreaks of infectious diseases are powerful tools for informing surveillance and control strategy decisions. However, large-scale spatially explicit models can be limited by the amount of computational resources they require, which poses a problem when multiple scenarios need to be explored to provide policy recommendations. We introduce an easily implemented method that can reduce computation time in a standard Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model without introducing any further approximations or truncations. It is based on a hierarchical infection process that operates on entire groups of spatially related nodes (cells in a grid) in order to efficiently filter out large volumes of susceptible nodes that would otherwise have required expensive calculations. After the filtering of the cells, only a subset of the nodes that were originally at risk are then evaluated for actual infection. The increase in efficiency is sensitive to the exact configuration of the grid, and we describe a simple method to find an estimate of the optimal configuration of a given landscape as well as a method to partition the landscape into a grid configuration. To investigate its efficiency, we compare the introduced methods to other algorithms and evaluate computation time, focusing on simulated outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) on the farm population of the USA, the UK and Sweden, as well as on three randomly generated populations with varying degree of clustering. The introduced method provided up to 500 times faster calculations than pairwise computation, and consistently performed as well or better than other available methods. This enables large scale, spatially explicit simulations such as for the entire continental USA without sacrificing realism or predictive power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of an ageing population, understanding the transmission of infectious diseases such as scabies through well-connected sub-units of the population, such as residential care homes, is particularly important for the design of efficient interventions to mitigate against the effects of those diseases. Here, we present a modelling methodology based on the efficient solution of a large-scale system of linear differential equations that allows statistical calibration of individual-based random models to real data on scabies in residential care homes. In particular, we review and benchmark different numerical methods for the integration of the differential equation system, and then select the most appropriate of these methods to perform inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo. We test the goodness-of-fit of this model using posterior predictive intervals and propagate forward the resulting parameter uncertainty in a Bayesian framework to consider the economic cost of delayed interventions against scabies, quantifying the benefits of prompt action in the event of detection. We also revisit the previous methodology used to assess the safety of treatments in small population sub-units—in this context ivermectin—and demonstrate that even a very slight relaxation of the implicit assumption of homogeneous death rates significantly increases the plausibility of the hypothesis that ivermectin does not cause excess mortality based upon the data of Barkwell and Shields [1]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polarity establishment, the spontaneous generation of asymmetric molecular distributions, is a crucial component of many cellular functions. Saccharomyces cerevisiae (yeast) undergoes directed growth during budding and mating, and is an ideal model organism for studying polarization. In yeast and many other cell types, the Rho GTPase Cdc42 is the key molecular player in polarity establishment. During yeast polarization, multiple patches of Cdc42 initially form, then resolve into a single front. Because polarization relies on strong positive feedback, it is likely that the amplification of molecular-level fluctuations underlies the generation of multiple nascent patches. In the absence of spatial cues, these fluctuations may be key to driving polarization. Here we used particle-based simulations to investigate the role of stochastic effects in a Turing-type model of yeast polarity establishment. In the model, reactions take place either between two molecules on the membrane, or between a cytosolic and a membrane-bound molecule. Thus, we developed a computational platform that explicitly simulates molecules at and near the cell membrane, and implicitly handles molecules away from the membrane. To evaluate stochastic effects, we compared particle simulations to deterministic reaction-diffusion equation simulations. Defining macroscopic rate constants that are consistent with the microscopic parameters for this system is challenging, because diffusion occurs in two dimensions and particles exchange between the membrane and cytoplasm. We address this problem by empirically estimating macroscopic rate constants from appropriately designed particle-based simulations. Ultimately, we find that stochastic fluctuations speed polarity establishment and permit polarization in parameter regions predicted to be Turing stable. These effects can operate at Cdc42 abundances expected of yeast cells, and promote polarization on timescales consistent with experimental results. To our knowledge, our work represents the first particle-based simulations of a model for yeast polarization that is based on a Turing mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stoichiometric balance, or dosage balance, implies that proteins that are subunits of obligate complexes (e.g. the ribosome) should have copy numbers expressed to match their stoichiometry in that complex. Establishing balance (or imbalance) is an important tool for inferring subunit function and assembly bottlenecks. We show here that these correlations in protein copy numbers can extend beyond complex subunits to larger protein-protein interactions networks (PPIN) involving a range of reversible binding interactions. We develop a simple method for quantifying balance in any interface-resolved PPINs based on network structure and experimentally observed protein copy numbers. By analyzing such a network for the clathrin-mediated endocytosis (CME) system in yeast, we found that the real protein copy numbers were significantly more balanced in relation to their binding partners compared to randomly sampled sets of yeast copy numbers. The observed balance is not perfect, highlighting both under and overexpressed proteins. We evaluate the potential cost and benefits of imbalance using two criteria. First, a potential cost to imbalance is that ‘leftover’ proteins without remaining functional partners are free to misinteract. We systematically quantify how this misinteraction cost is most dangerous for strong-binding protein interactions and for network topologies observed in biological PPINs. Second, a more direct consequence of imbalance is that the formation of specific functional complexes depends on relative copy numbers. We therefore construct simple kinetic models of two sub-networks in the CME network to assess multi-protein assembly of the ARP2/3 complex and a minimal, nine-protein clathrin-coated vesicle forming module. We find that the observed, imperfectly balanced copy numbers are less effective than balanced copy numbers in producing fast and complete multi-protein assemblies. However, we speculate that strategic imbalance in the vesicle forming module allows cells to tune where endocytosis occurs, providing sensitive control over cargo uptake via clathrin-coated vesicles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eradicating HIV-1 infection is difficult because of the reservoir of latently infected cells that gets established soon after infection, remains hidden from antiretroviral drugs and host immune responses, and retains the capacity to reignite infection following the cessation of treatment. Drugs called latency-reversing agents (LRAs) are being developed to reactivate latently infected cells and render them susceptible to viral cytopathicity or immune killing. Whereas individual LRAs have failed to induce adequate reactivation, pairs of LRAs have been identified recently that act synergistically and hugely increase reactivation levels compared to individual LRAs. The maximum synergy achievable with LRA pairs is of clinical importance, as it would allow latency-reversal with minimal drug exposure. Here, we employed stochastic simulations of HIV-1 transcription and translation in latently infected cells to estimate this maximum synergy. We incorporated the predominant mechanisms of action of the two most promising classes of LRAs, namely, protein kinase C agonists and histone deacetylase inhibitors, and quantified the activity of individual LRAs in the two classes by mapping our simulations to corresponding in vitro experiments. Without any adjustable parameters, our simulations then quantitatively captured experimental observations of latency-reversal when the LRAs were used in pairs. Performing simulations representing a wide range of drug concentrations, we estimated the maximum synergy achievable with these LRA pairs. Importantly, we found with all the LRA pairs we considered that concentrations yielding the maximum synergy did not yield the maximum latency-reversal. Increasing concentrations to increase latency-reversal compromised synergy, unravelling a trade-off between synergy and efficacy in LRA combinations. The maximum synergy realizable with LRA pairs would thus be restricted by the desired level of latency-reversal, a constrained optimum we elucidated with our simulations. We expect this trade-off to be important in defining optimal LRA combinations that would maximize synergy while ensuring adequate latency-reversal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intuitive response to an invading pathogen is to start disease management as rapidly as possible, since this would be expected to minimise the future impacts of disease. However, since more spread data become available as an outbreak unfolds, processes underpinning pathogen transmission can almost always be characterised more precisely later in epidemics. This allows the future progression of any outbreak to be forecast more accurately, and so enables control interventions to be targeted more precisely. There is also the chance that the outbreak might die out without any intervention whatsoever, making prophylactic control unnecessary. Optimal decision-making involves continuously balancing these potential benefits of waiting against the possible costs of further spread. We introduce a generic, extensible data-driven algorithm based on parameter estimation and outbreak simulation for making decisions in real-time concerning when and how to control an invading pathogen. The Control Smart Algorithm (CSA) resolves the trade-off between the competing advantages of controlling as soon as possible and controlling later when more information has become available. We show–using a generic mathematical model representing the transmission of a pathogen of agricultural animals or plants through a population of farms or fields–how the CSA allows the timing and level of deployment of vaccination or chemical control to be optimised. In particular, the algorithm outperforms simpler strategies such as intervening when the outbreak size reaches a pre-specified threshold, or controlling when the outbreak has persisted for a threshold length of time. This remains the case even if the simpler methods are fully optimised in advance. Our work highlights the potential benefits of giving careful consideration to the question of when to start disease management during emerging outbreaks, and provides a concrete framework to allow policy-makers to make this decision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tumors consist of a hierarchical population of cells that differ in their phenotype and genotype. This hierarchical organization of cells means that a few clones (i.e., cells and several generations of offspring) are abundant while most are rare, which is called clonal dominance. Such dominance also occurred in published in vitro iterated growth and passage experiments with tumor cells in which genetic barcodes were used for lineage tracing. A potential source for such heterogeneity is that dominant clones derive from cancer stem cells with an unlimited self-renewal capacity. Furthermore, ongoing evolution and selection within the growing population may also induce clonal dominance. To understand how clonal dominance developed in the iterated growth and passage experiments, we built a computational model that accurately simulates these experiments. The model simulations reproduced the clonal dominance that developed in in vitro iterated growth and passage experiments when the division rates vary between cells, due to a combination of initial variation and of ongoing mutational processes. In contrast, the experimental results can neither be reproduced with a model that considers random growth and passage, nor with a model based on cancer stem cells. Altogether, our model suggests that in vitro clonal dominance develops due to selection of fast-dividing clones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant morphogenesis is strongly dependent on the directional growth and the subsequent oriented division of individual cells. It has been shown that the plant cortical microtubule array plays a key role in controlling both these processes. This ordered structure emerges as the collective result of stochastic interactions between large numbers of dynamic microtubules. To elucidate this complex self-organization process a number of analytical and computational approaches to study the dynamics of cortical microtubules have been proposed. To date, however, these models have been restricted to two dimensional planes or geometrically simple surfaces in three dimensions, which strongly limits their applicability as plant cells display a wide variety of shapes. This limitation is even more acute, as both local as well as global geometrical features of cells are expected to influence the overall organization of the array. Here we describe a framework for efficiently simulating microtubule dynamics on triangulated approximations of arbitrary three dimensional surfaces. This allows the study of microtubule array organization on realistic cell surfaces obtained by segmentation of microscopic images. We validate the framework against expected or known results for the spherical and cubical geometry. We then use it to systematically study the individual contributions of global geometry, cell-edge induced catastrophes and cell-face induced stability to array organization in a cuboidal geometry. Finally, we apply our framework to analyze the highly non-trivial geometry of leaf pavement cells of Arabidopsis thaliana, Nicotiana benthamiana and Hedera helix. We show that our simulations can predict multiple features of the microtubule array structure in these cells, revealing, among others, strong constraints on the orientation of division planes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Noise is a prevalent and sometimes even dominant aspect of many biological processes. While many natural systems have adapted to attenuate or even usefully integrate noise, the variability it introduces often still delimits the achievable precision across biological functions. This is particularly so for visual phototransduction, the process responsible for converting photons of light into usable electrical signals (quantum bumps). Here, randomness of both the photon inputs (regarded as extrinsic noise) and the conversion process (intrinsic noise) are seen as two distinct, independent and significant limitations on visual reliability. Past research has attempted to quantify the relative effects of these noise sources by using approximate methods that do not fully account for the discrete, point process and time ordered nature of the problem. As a result the conclusions drawn from these different approaches have led to inconsistent expositions of phototransduction noise performance. This paper provides a fresh and complete analysis of the relative impact of intrinsic and extrinsic noise in invertebrate phototransduction using minimum mean squared error reconstruction techniques based on Bayesian point process (Snyder) filters. An integrate-fire based algorithm is developed to reliably estimate photon times from quantum bumps and Snyder filters are then used to causally estimate random light intensities both at the front and back end of the phototransduction cascade. Comparison of these estimates reveals that the dominant noise source transitions from extrinsic to intrinsic as light intensity increases. By extending the filtering techniques to account for delays, it is further found that among the intrinsic noise components, which include bump latency (mean delay and jitter) and shape (amplitude and width) variance, it is the mean delay that is critical to noise performance. As the timeliness of visual information is important for real-time action, this delay could potentially limit the speed at which invertebrates can respond to stimuli. Consequently, if one wants to increase visual fidelity, reducing the photoconversion lag is much more important than improving the regularity of the electrical signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interactions between membrane receptors and extracellular ligands control cell-cell and cell-substrate adhesion, and environmental responsiveness by representing the initial steps of cell signaling pathways. These interactions can be spatial-temporally regulated when different extracellular ligands are tethered. The detailed mechanisms of this spatial-temporal regulation, including the competition between distinct ligands with overlapping binding sites and the conformational flexibility in multi-specific ligand assemblies have not been quantitatively evaluated. We present a new coarse-grained model to realistically simulate the binding process between multi-specific ligands and membrane receptors on cell surfaces. The model simplifies each receptor and each binding site in a multi-specific ligand as a rigid body. Different numbers or types of ligands are spatially organized together in the simulation. These designs were used to test the relation between the overall binding of a multi-specific ligand and the affinity of its cognate binding site. When a variety of ligands are exposed to cells expressing different densities of surface receptors, we demonstrated that ligands with reduced affinities have higher specificity to distinguish cells based on the relative concentrations of their receptors. Finally, modification of intramolecular flexibility was shown to play a role in optimizing the binding between receptors and ligands. In summary, our studies bring new insights to the general principles of ligand-receptor interactions. Future applications of our method will pave the way for new strategies to generate next-generation biologics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hematopoietic stem cells in mammals are known to reside mostly in the bone marrow, but also transitively passage in small numbers in the blood. Experimental findings have suggested that they exist in a dynamic equilibrium, continuously migrating between these two compartments. Here we construct an individual-based mathematical model of this process, which is parametrised using existing empirical findings from mice. This approach allows us to quantify the amount of migration between the bone marrow niches and the peripheral blood. We use this model to investigate clonal hematopoiesis, which is a significant risk factor for hematologic cancers. We also analyse the engraftment of donor stem cells into non-conditioned and conditioned hosts, quantifying the impact of different treatment scenarios. The simplicity of the model permits a thorough mathematical analysis, providing deeper insights into the dynamics of both the model and of the real-world system. We predict the time taken for mutant clones to expand within a host, as well as chimerism levels that can be expected following transplantation therapy, and the probability that a preconditioned host is reconstituted by donor cells. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]