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Scientific analysis often relies on the ability to make accurate predictions of a system’s dynamics. Mechanistic models, parameterized by a number of unknown parameters, are often used for this purpose. Accurate estimation of the model state and parameters prior to prediction is necessary, but may be complicated by issues such as noisy data and uncertainty in parameters and initial conditions. At the other end of the spectrum exist nonparametric methods, which rely solely on data to build their predictions. While these nonparametric methods do not require a model of the system, their performance is strongly influenced by the amount and noisiness of the data. In this article, we consider a hybrid approach to modeling and prediction which merges recent advancements in nonparametric analysis with standard parametric methods. The general idea is to replace a subset of a mechanistic model’s equations with their corresponding nonparametric representations, resulting in a hybrid modeling and prediction scheme. Overall, we find that this hybrid approach allows for more robust parameter estimation and improved short-term prediction in situations where there is a large uncertainty in model parameters. We demonstrate these advantages in the classical Lorenz-63 chaotic system and in networks of Hindmarsh-Rose neurons before application to experimentally collected structured population data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highly connected recurrent neural networks often produce chaotic dynamics, meaning their precise activity is sensitive to small perturbations. What are the consequences of chaos for how such networks encode streams of temporal stimuli? On the one hand, chaos is a strong source of randomness, suggesting that small changes in stimuli will be obscured by intrinsically generated variability. On the other hand, recent work shows that the type of chaos that occurs in spiking networks can have a surprisingly low-dimensional structure, suggesting that there may be room for fine stimulus features to be precisely resolved. Here we show that strongly chaotic networks produce patterned spikes that reliably encode time-dependent stimuli: using a decoder sensitive to spike times on timescales of 10’s of ms, one can easily distinguish responses to very similar inputs. Moreover, recurrence serves to distribute signals throughout chaotic networks so that small groups of cells can encode substantial information about signals arriving elsewhere. A conclusion is that the presence of strong chaos in recurrent networks need not exclude precise encoding of temporal stimuli via spike patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]