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Evolving systems, be it an antibody repertoire in the face of mutating pathogens or a microbial population exposed to varied antibiotics, constantly search for adaptive solutions in time-varying fitness landscapes. Generalists refer to genotypes that remain fit across diverse selective pressures; while multi-drug resistant microbes are undesired yet prevalent, broadly-neutralizing antibodies are much wanted but rare. However, little is known about under what conditions such generalists with a high capacity to adapt can be efficiently discovered by evolution. In addition, can epistasis—the source of landscape ruggedness and path constraints—play a different role, if the environment varies in a non-random way? We present a generative model to estimate the propensity of evolving generalists in rugged landscapes that are tunably related and alternating relatively slowly. We find that environmental cycling can substantially facilitate the search for fit generalists by dynamically enlarging their effective basins of attraction. Importantly, these high performers are most likely to emerge at intermediate levels of ruggedness and environmental relatedness. Our approach allows one to estimate correlations across environments from the topography of experimental fitness landscapes. Our work provides a conceptual framework to study evolution in time-correlated complex environments, and offers statistical understanding that suggests general strategies for eliciting broadly neutralizing antibodies or preventing microbes from evolving multi-drug resistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing HIV-1 vaccines that trigger broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) is a priority as bnAbs are considered key to elicitation of a protective immune response. To investigate whether the breadth of a neutralizing antibody (nAb) depended on the conservation of its epitope among circulating viruses, we examined Antibody:Envelope (Ab:Env) interactions and worldwide Env diversity. We found that sites corresponding to bnAb epitopes were as variable as other accessible, non-hypervariable Env sites (p = 0.50, Mann-Whitney U-test) with no significant relationship between epitope conservation and neutralization breadth (Spearman's ρ = -0.44, adjusted p = 0.079). However, when accounting for key sites in the Ab:Env interaction, we showed that the broadest bnAbs targeted more conserved epitopes (Spearman's ρ = -0.70, adjusted p = 5.0e-5). Neutralization breadth did not stem from the overall conservation of Ab epitopes but depended instead on the conservation of key sites of the Ab:Env interaction, revealing a mechanistic basis for neutralization breadth that could be exploited for vaccine design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Immunoglobulin A is a class of antibodies produced by the adaptive immune system and secreted into the gut lumen to fight pathogenic bacteria. We recently demonstrated that the main physical effect of these antibodies is to enchain daughter bacteria, i.e. to cross-link bacteria into clusters as they divide, preventing them from interacting with epithelial cells, thus protecting the host. These links between bacteria may break over time. We study several models using analytical and numerical calculations. We obtain the resulting distribution of chain sizes, that we compare with experimental data. We study the rate of increase in the number of free bacteria as a function of the replication rate of bacteria. Our models show robustly that at higher replication rates, bacteria replicate before the link between daughter bacteria breaks, leading to growing cluster sizes. On the contrary at low growth rates two daughter bacteria have a high probability to break apart. Thus the gut could produce IgA against all the bacteria it has encountered, but the most affected bacteria would be the fast replicating ones, that are more likely to destabilize the microbiota. Linking the effect of the immune effectors (here the clustering) with a property directly relevant to the potential bacterial pathogeneicity (here the replication rate) could avoid to make complex decisions about which bacteria to produce effectors against. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

HIV is a highly mutable virus for which all attempts to develop a vaccine have been unsuccessful. Nevertheless, few long-infected patients develop antibodies, called broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs), that have a high breadth and can neutralize multiple variants of the virus. This suggests that a universal HIV vaccine should be possible. A measure of the efficacy of a HIV vaccine is the neutralization breadth of the antibodies it generates. The breadth is defined as the fraction of viruses in the Seaman panel that are neutralized by the antibody. Experimentally the neutralization ability is measured as the half maximal inhibitory concentration of the antibody (IC50). To avoid such time-consuming experimental measurements, we developed a computational approach to estimate the IC50 and use it to determine the antibody breadth. Given that no direct method exists for calculating IC50 values, we resort to a combination of atomistic modeling and machine learning. For each antibody/virus complex, an all-atoms model is built using the amino acid sequence and a known structure of a related complex. Then a series of descriptors are derived from the atomistic models, and these are used to train a Multi-Layer Perceptron (an Artificial Neural Network) to predict the value of the IC50 (by regression), or if the antibody binds or not to the virus (by classification). The neural networks are trained by use of experimental IC50 values collected in the CATNAP database. The computed breadths obtained by regression and classification are reported and the importance of having some related information in the data set for obtaining accurate predictions is analyzed. This approach is expected to prove useful for the design of HIV bnAbs, where the computation of the potency must be accompanied by a computation of the breadth, and for evaluating the efficiency of potential vaccination schemes developed through modeling and simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mechanism by which hepatitis C virus (HCV) gains entry into cells is a complex one, involving a broad range of host proteins. Entry is a critical phase of the viral lifecycle, and a potential target for therapeutic or vaccine-mediated intervention. However, the mechanics of HCV entry remain poorly understood. Here we describe a novel computational model of viral entry, encompassing the relationship between HCV and the key host receptors CD81 and SR-B1. We conduct experiments to thoroughly quantify the influence of an increase or decrease in receptor availability upon the extent of viral entry. We use these data to build and parameterise a mathematical model, which we then validate by further experiments. Our results are consistent with sequential HCV-receptor interactions, whereby initial interaction between the HCV E2 glycoprotein and SR-B1 facilitates the accumulation CD81 receptors, leading to viral entry. However, we also demonstrate that a small minority of virus can achieve entry in the absence of SR-B1. Our model estimates the impact of the different obstacles that viruses must surmount to achieve entry; among virus particles attaching to the cell surface, around one third of viruses accumulate sufficient CD81 receptors, of which 4–8% then complete the subsequent steps to achieve productive infection. Furthermore, we make estimates of receptor stoichiometry; in excess of 10 receptors are likely to be required to achieve viral entry. Our model provides a tool to investigate the entry characteristics of HCV variants and outlines a framework for future quantitative studies of the multi-receptor dynamics of HCV entry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vaccination is an effective method to protect against infectious diseases. An important consideration in any vaccine formulation is the inoculum dose, i.e., amount of antigen or live attenuated pathogen that is used. Higher levels generally lead to better stimulation of the immune response but might cause more severe side effects and allow for less population coverage in the presence of vaccine shortages. Determining the optimal amount of inoculum dose is an important component of rational vaccine design. A combination of mathematical models with experimental data can help determine the impact of the inoculum dose. We illustrate the concept of using data and models to inform inoculum dose determination for vaccines, wby fitting a mathematical model to data from influenza A virus (IAV) infection of mice and human parainfluenza virus (HPIV) infection of cotton rats at different inoculum doses. We use the model to map inoculum dose to the level of immune protection and morbidity and to explore how such a framework might be used to determine an optimal inoculum dose. We show how a framework that combines mathematical models with experimental data can be used to study the impact of inoculum dose on important outcomes such as immune protection and morbidity. Our findings illustrate that the impact of inoculum dose on immune protection and morbidity can depend on the specific pathogen and that both protection and morbidity do not necessarily increase monotonically with increasing inoculum dose. Once vaccine design goals are specified with required levels of protection and acceptable levels of morbidity, our proposed framework can help in the rational design of vaccines and determination of the optimal amount of inoculum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spikes on virus surfaces bind receptors on host cells to propagate infection. High spike densities (SDs) can promote infection, but spikes are also targets of antibody-mediated immune responses. Thus, diverse evolutionary pressures can influence virus SDs. HIV’s SD is about two orders of magnitude lower than that of other viruses, a surprising feature of unknown origin. By modeling antibody evolution through affinity maturation, we find that an intermediate SD maximizes the affinity of generated antibodies. We argue that this leads most viruses to evolve high SDs. T helper cells, which are depleted during early HIV infection, play a key role in antibody evolution. We find that T helper cell depletion results in high affinity antibodies when SD is high, but not if SD is low. This special feature of HIV infection may have led to the evolution of a low SD to avoid potent immune responses early in infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Computational protein design has been successful in modeling fixed backbone proteins in a single conformation. However, when modeling large ensembles of flexible proteins, current methods in protein design have been insufficient. Large barriers in the energy landscape are difficult to traverse while redesigning a protein sequence, and as a result current design methods only sample a fraction of available sequence space. We propose a new computational approach that combines traditional structure-based modeling using the software suite with machine learning and integer linear programming to overcome limitations in the sampling methods. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this method, which we call BROAD, by benchmarking the performance on increasing predicted breadth of anti-HIV antibodies. We use this novel method to increase predicted breadth of naturally-occurring antibody VRC23 against a panel of 180 divergent HIV viral strains and achieve 100% predicted binding against the panel. In addition, we compare the performance of this method to state-of-the-art multistate design in and show that we can outperform the existing method significantly. We further demonstrate that sequences recovered by this method recover known binding motifs of broadly neutralizing anti-HIV antibodies. Finally, our approach is general and can be extended easily to other protein systems. Although our modeled antibodies were not tested in vitro, we predict that these variants would have greatly increased breadth compared to the wild-type antibody. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Treatment with broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) has proven effective against HIV-1 infections in humanized mice, non-human primates, and humans. Due to the high mutation rate of HIV-1, resistance testing of the patient’s viral strains to the bNAbs is still inevitable. So far, bNAb resistance can only be tested in expensive and time-consuming neutralization experiments. Here, we introduce well-performing computational models that predict the neutralization response of HIV-1 to bNAbs given only the envelope sequence of the virus. Using non-linear support vector machines based on a string kernel, the models learnt even the important binding sites of bNAbs with more complex epitopes, i.e., the CD4 binding site targeting bNAbs, proving thereby the biological relevance of the models. To increase the interpretability of the models, we additionally provide a new kind of motif logo for each query sequence, visualizing those residues of the test sequence that influenced the prediction outcome the most. Moreover, we predicted the neutralization sensitivity of around 34,000 HIV-1 samples from different time points to a broad range of bNAbs, enabling the first analysis of HIV resistance to bNAbs on a global scale. The analysis showed for many of the bNAbs a trend towards antibody resistance over time, which had previously only been discovered for a small non-representative subset of the global HIV-1 population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a herpes virus with poorly understood transmission dynamics. Person-to-person transmission is thought to occur primarily through transfer of saliva or urine, but no quantitative estimates are available for the contribution of different infection routes. Using data from a large population-based serological study (n = 5,179), we provide quantitative estimates of key epidemiological parameters, including the transmissibility of primary infection, reactivation, and re-infection. Mixture models are fitted to age- and sex-specific antibody response data from the Netherlands, showing that the data can be described by a model with three distributions of antibody measurements, i.e. uninfected, infected, and infected with increased antibody concentration. Estimates of seroprevalence increase gradually with age, such that at 80 years 73% (95%CrI: 64%-78%) of females and 62% (95%CrI: 55%-68%) of males are infected, while 57% (95%CrI: 47%-67%) of females and 37% (95%CrI: 28%-46%) of males have increased antibody concentration. Merging the statistical analyses with transmission models, we find that models with infectious reactivation (i.e. reactivation that can lead to the virus being transmitted to a novel host) fit the data significantly better than models without infectious reactivation. Estimated reactivation rates increase from low values in children to 2%-4% per year in women older than 50 years. The results advance a hypothesis in which transmission from adults after infectious reactivation is a key driver of infection. We discuss the implications for control strategies aimed at reducing CMV infection in vulnerable groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Affinity maturation is a Darwinian process in which B lymphocytes evolve potent antibodies to encountered antigens and generate immune memory. Highly mutable complex pathogens present an immense antigenic diversity that continues to challenge natural immunity and vaccine design. Induction of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) against this diversity by vaccination likely requires multiple exposures to distinct but related antigen variants, and yet how affinity maturation advances under such complex stimulation remains poorly understood. To fill the gap, we present an in silico model of affinity maturation to examine two realistic new aspects pertinent to vaccine development: loss in B cell diversity across successive immunization periods against different variants, and the presence of distracting epitopes that entropically disfavor the evolution of bnAbs. We find these new factors, which introduce additional selection pressures and constraints, significantly influence antibody breadth development, in a way that depends crucially on the temporal pattern of immunization (or selection forces). Curiously, a less diverse B cell seed may even favor the expansion and dominance of cross-reactive clones, but only when conflicting selection forces are presented in series rather than in a mixture. Moreover, the level of frustration due to evolutionary conflict dictates the degree of distraction. We further describe how antigenic histories select evolutionary paths of B cell lineages and determine the predominant mode of antibody responses. Sequential immunization with mutationally distant variants is shown to robustly induce bnAbs that focus on conserved elements of the target epitope, by thwarting strain-specific and distracted lineages. An optimal range of antigen dose underlies a fine balance between efficient adaptation and persistent reaction. These findings provide mechanistic guides to aid in design of vaccine strategies against fast mutating pathogens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dengue is a vector-borne viral disease of humans that endemically circulates in many tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Infection with dengue can result in a range of disease outcomes. A considerable amount of research has sought to improve our understanding of this variation in disease outcomes and to identify predictors of severe disease. Contributing to this research, patterns of viral load in dengue infected patients have been quantified, with analyses indicating that peak viral load levels, rates of viral load decline, and time to peak viremia are useful predictors of severe disease. Here, we take a complementary approach to understanding patterns of clinical manifestation and inter-individual variation in viral load dynamics. Specifically, we statistically fit mathematical within-host models of dengue to individual-level viral load data to test virological and immunological hypotheses explaining inter-individual variation in dengue viral load. We choose between alternative models using model selection criteria to determine which hypotheses are best supported by the data. We first show that the cellular immune response plays an important role in regulating viral load in secondary dengue infections. We then provide statistical support for the process of antibody-dependent enhancement (but not original antigenic sin) in the development of severe disease in secondary dengue infections. Finally, we show statistical support for serotype-specific differences in viral infectivity rates, with infectivity rates of dengue serotypes 2 and 3 exceeding those of serotype 1. These results contribute to our understanding of dengue viral load patterns and their relationship to the development of severe dengue disease. They further have implications for understanding how dengue transmissibility may depend on the immune status of infected individuals and the identity of the infecting serotype. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heavy glycosylation of the envelope (Env) surface subunit, gp120, is a key adaptation of HIV-1; however, the precise effects of glycosylation on the folding, conformation and dynamics of this protein are poorly understood. Here we explore the patterns of HIV-1 Env gp120 glycosylation, and particularly the enrichment in glycosylation sites proximal to the disulfide linkages at the base of the surface-exposed variable domains. To dissect the influence of glycans on the conformation these regions, we focused on an antigenic peptide fragment from a disulfide bridge-bounded region spanning the V1 and V2 hyper-variable domains of HIV-1 gp120. We used replica exchange molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to investigate how glycosylation influences its conformation and stability. Simulations were performed with and without N-linked glycosylation at two sites that are highly conserved across HIV-1 isolates (N156 and N160); both are contacts for recognition by V1V2-targeted broadly neutralizing antibodies against HIV-1. Glycosylation stabilized the pre-existing conformations of this peptide construct, reduced its propensity to adopt other secondary structures, and provided resistance against thermal unfolding. Simulations performed in the context of the Env trimer also indicated that glycosylation reduces flexibility of the V1V2 region, and provided insight into glycan-glycan interactions in this region. These stabilizing effects were influenced by a combination of factors, including the presence of a disulfide bond between the Cysteines at 131 and 157, which increased the formation of beta-strands. Together, these results provide a mechanism for conservation of disulfide linkage proximal glycosylation adjacent to the variable domains of gp120 and begin to explain how this could be exploited to enhance the immunogenicity of those regions. These studies suggest that glycopeptide immunogens can be designed to stabilize the most relevant Env conformations to focus the immune response on key neutralizing epitopes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dengue is an infection of increasing global importance, yet uncertainty remains regarding critical aspects of its virology, immunology and epidemiology. One unanswered question is how infection is controlled and cleared during a dengue infection. Antibody is thought to play a role, but little past work has examined the kinetics of both virus and antibody during natural infections. We present data on multiple virus and antibody titres measurements recorded sequentially during infection from 53 Vietnamese dengue patients. We fit mechanistic mathematical models of the dynamics of viral replication and the host immune response to these data. These models fit the data well. The model with antibody removing virus fits the data best, but with a role suggested for ADCC or other infected cell clearance mechanisms. Our analysis therefore shows that the observed viral and antibody kinetics are consistent with antibody playing a key role in controlling viral replication. This work gives quantitative insight into the relationship between antibody levels and the efficiency of viral clearance. It will inform the future development of mechanistic models of how vaccines and antivirals might modify the course of natural dengue infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accumulation of somatic mutations in antibody variable regions is critical for antibody affinity maturation, with HIV-1 broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) generally requiring years to develop. We recently found that the rate at which mutations accumulate decreases over time, but the mechanism governing this slowing is unclear. In this study, we investigated whether natural selection and/or mutability of the antibody variable region contributed significantly to observed decrease in rate. We used longitudinally sampled sequences of immunoglobulin transcripts of single lineages from each of 3 donors, as determined by next generation sequencing. We estimated the evolutionary rates of the complementarity determining regions (CDRs), which are most significant for functional selection, and found they evolved about 1.5- to 2- fold faster than the framework regions. We also analyzed the presence of AID hotspots and coldspots at different points in lineage development and observed an average decrease in mutability of less than 10 percent over time. Altogether, the correlation between Darwinian selection strength and evolutionary rate trended toward significance, especially for CDRs, but cannot fully explain the observed changes in evolutionary rate. The mutability modulated by AID hotspots and coldspots changes correlated only weakly with evolutionary rates. The combined effects of Darwinian selection and mutability contribute substantially to, but do not fully explain, evolutionary rate change for HIV-1-targeting bnAb lineages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The immune system has developed a number of distinct complex mechanisms to shape and control the antibody repertoire. One of these mechanisms, the affinity maturation process, works in an evolutionary-like fashion: after binding to a foreign molecule, the antibody-producing B-cells exhibit a high-frequency mutation rate in the genome region that codes for the antibody active site. Eventually, cells that produce antibodies with higher affinity for their cognate antigen are selected and clonally expanded. Here, we propose a new statistical approach based on maximum entropy modeling in which a scoring function related to the binding affinity of antibodies against a specific antigen is inferred from a sample of sequences of the immune repertoire of an individual. We use our inference strategy to infer a statistical model on a data set obtained by sequencing a fairly large portion of the immune repertoire of an HIV-1 infected patient. The Pearson correlation coefficient between our scoring function and the IC50 neutralization titer measured on 30 different antibodies of known sequence is as high as 0.77 (p-value 10−6), outperforming other sequence- and structure-based models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]