Search

Phylogenetic networks generalize phylogenetic trees by allowing the modelization of events of reticulate evolution. Among the different kinds of phylogenetic networks that have been proposed in the literature, the subclass of binary tree-child networks is one of the most studied ones. However, very little is known about the combinatorial structure of these networks. In this paper we address the problem of generating all possible binary tree-child (BTC) networks with a given number of leaves in an efficient way via reduction/augmentation operations that extend and generalize analogous operations for phylogenetic trees, and are biologically relevant. Since our solution is recursive, this also provides us with a recurrence relation giving an upper bound on the number of such networks. We also show how the operations introduced in this paper can be employed to extend the evolutive history of a set of sequences, represented by a BTC network, to include a new sequence. An implementation in python of the algorithms described in this paper, along with some computational experiments, can be downloaded from . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

13C metabolic flux analysis (13C-MFA) has been widely used to measure in vivo enzyme reaction rates (i.e., metabolic flux) in microorganisms. Mining the relationship between environmental and genetic factors and metabolic fluxes hidden in existing fluxomic data will lead to predictive models that can significantly accelerate flux quantification. In this paper, we present a web-based platform MFlux () that predicts the bacterial central metabolism via machine learning, leveraging data from approximately 100 13C-MFA papers on heterotrophic bacterial metabolisms. Three machine learning methods, namely Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN), and Decision Tree, were employed to study the sophisticated relationship between influential factors and metabolic fluxes. We performed a grid search of the best parameter set for each algorithm and verified their performance through 10-fold cross validations. SVM yields the highest accuracy among all three algorithms. Further, we employed quadratic programming to adjust flux profiles to satisfy stoichiometric constraints. Multiple case studies have shown that MFlux can reasonably predict fluxomes as a function of bacterial species, substrate types, growth rate, oxygen conditions, and cultivation methods. Due to the interest of studying model organism under particular carbon sources, bias of fluxome in the dataset may limit the applicability of machine learning models. This problem can be resolved after more papers on 13C-MFA are published for non-model species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In their Commentary paper, Villaverde and Massonis (On testing structural identifiability by a simple scaling method: relying on scaling symmetries can be misleading) have commented on our paper in which we proposed a simple scaling method to test structural identifiability. Our scaling invariance method (SIM) tests for scaling symmetries only, and Villaverde and Massonis correctly show the SIM may fail to detect identifiability problems when a model has other types of symmetries. We agree with the limitations raised by these authors but, also, we emphasize that the method is still valuable for its applicability to a wide variety of models, its simplicity, and even as a tool to introduce the problem of identifiability to investigators with little training in mathematics., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Budding yeast, which undergoes polarized growth during budding and mating, has been a useful model system to study cell polarization. Bud sites are selected differently in haploid and diploid yeast cells: haploid cells bud in an axial manner, while diploid cells bud in a bipolar manner. While previous studies have been focused on the molecular details of the bud site selection and polarity establishment, not much is known about how different budding patterns give rise to different functions at the population level. In this paper, we develop a two-dimensional agent-based model to study budding yeast colonies with cell-type specific biological processes, such as budding, mating, mating type switch, consumption of nutrients, and cell death. The model demonstrates that the axial budding pattern enhances mating probability at an early stage and the bipolar budding pattern improves colony development under nutrient limitation. Our results suggest that the frequency of mating type switch might control the trade-off between diploidization and inbreeding. The effect of cellular aging is also studied through our model. Based on the simulations, colonies initiated by an aged haploid cell show declined mating probability at an early stage and recover as the rejuvenated offsprings become the majority. Colonies initiated with aged diploid cells do not show disadvantage in colony expansion possibly due to the fact that young cells contribute the most to colony expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Type 2 diabetes leads to premature death and reduced quality of life for 8% of Americans. Nutrition management is critical to maintaining glycemic control, yet it is difficult to achieve due to the high individual differences in glycemic response to nutrition. Anticipating glycemic impact of different meals can be challenging not only for individuals with diabetes, but also for expert diabetes educators. Personalized computational models that can accurately forecast an impact of a given meal on an individual’s blood glucose levels can serve as the engine for a new generation of decision support tools for individuals with diabetes. However, to be useful in practice, these computational engines need to generate accurate forecasts based on limited datasets consistent with typical self-monitoring practices of individuals with type 2 diabetes. This paper uses three forecasting machines: (i) data assimilation, a technique borrowed from atmospheric physics and engineering that uses Bayesian modeling to infuse data with human knowledge represented in a mechanistic model, to generate real-time, personalized, adaptable glucose forecasts; (ii) model averaging of data assimilation output; and (iii) dynamical Gaussian process model regression. The proposed data assimilation machine, the primary focus of the paper, uses a modified dual unscented Kalman filter to estimate states and parameters, personalizing the mechanistic models. Model selection is used to make a personalized model selection for the individual and their measurement characteristics. The data assimilation forecasts are empirically evaluated against actual postprandial glucose measurements captured by individuals with type 2 diabetes, and against predictions generated by experienced diabetes educators after reviewing a set of historical nutritional records and glucose measurements for the same individual. The evaluation suggests that the data assimilation forecasts compare well with specific glucose measurements and match or exceed in accuracy expert forecasts. We conclude by examining ways to present predictions as forecast-derived range quantities and evaluate the comparative advantages of these ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to produce timely and accurate flu forecasts in the United States can significantly impact public health. Augmenting forecasts with internet data has shown promise for improving forecast accuracy and timeliness in controlled settings, but results in practice are less convincing, as models augmented with internet data have not consistently outperformed models without internet data. In this paper, we perform a controlled experiment, taking into account data backfill, to improve clarity on the benefits and limitations of augmenting an already good flu forecasting model with internet-based nowcasts. Our results show that a good flu forecasting model can benefit from the augmentation of internet-based nowcasts in practice for all considered public health-relevant forecasting targets. The degree of forecast improvement due to nowcasting, however, is uneven across forecasting targets, with short-term forecasting targets seeing the largest improvements and seasonal targets such as the peak timing and intensity seeing relatively marginal improvements. The uneven forecasting improvements across targets hold even when “perfect” nowcasts are used. These findings suggest that further improvements to flu forecasting, particularly seasonal targets, will need to derive from other, non-nowcasting approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with the potential multistability of protein concentrations in the cell. That is, situations where one, or a family of, proteins may sit at one of two or more different steady state concentrations in otherwise identical cells, and in spite of them being in the same environment. For models of multisite protein phosphorylation for example, in the presence of excess substrate, it has been shown that the achievable number of stable steady states can increase linearly with the number of phosphosites available. In this paper, we analyse the consequences of adding enzyme docking to these and similar models, with the resultant sequestration of phosphatase and kinase by the fully unphosphorylated and by the fully phosphorylated substrates respectively. In the large molecule numbers limit, where deterministic analysis is applicable, we prove that there are always values for these rates of sequestration which, when exceeded, limit the extent of multistability. For the models considered here, these numbers are much smaller than the affinity of the enzymes to the substrate when it is in a modifiable state. As substrate enzyme-sequestration is increased, we further prove that the number of steady states will inevitably be reduced to one. For smaller molecule numbers a stochastic analysis is more appropriate, where multistability in the large molecule numbers limit can manifest itself as multimodality of the probability distribution; the system spending periods of time in the vicinity of one mode before jumping to another. Here, we find that substrate enzyme sequestration can induce bimodality even in systems where only a single steady state can exist at large numbers. To facilitate this analysis, we develop a weakly chained diagonally dominant M-matrix formulation of the Chemical Master Equation, allowing greater insights in the way particular mechanisms, like enzyme sequestration, can shape probability distributions and therefore exhibit different behaviour across different regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phylogenetic tree reconstruction is usually done by local search heuristics that explore the space of the possible tree topologies via simple rearrangements of their structure. Tree rearrangement heuristics have been used in combination with practically all optimization criteria in use, from maximum likelihood and parsimony to distance-based principles, and in a Bayesian context. Their basic components are rearrangement moves that specify all possible ways of generating alternative phylogenies from a given one, and whose fundamental property is to be able to transform, by repeated application, any phylogeny into any other phylogeny. Despite their long tradition in tree-based phylogenetics, very little research has gone into studying similar rearrangement operations for phylogenetic network—that is, phylogenies explicitly representing scenarios that include reticulate events such as hybridization, horizontal gene transfer, population admixture, and recombination. To fill this gap, we propose “horizontal” moves that ensure that every network of a certain complexity can be reached from any other network of the same complexity, and “vertical” moves that ensure reachability between networks of different complexities. When applied to phylogenetic trees, our horizontal moves—named rNNI and rSPR—reduce to the best-known moves on rooted phylogenetic trees, nearest-neighbor interchange and rooted subtree pruning and regrafting. Besides a number of reachability results—separating the contributions of horizontal and vertical moves—we prove that rNNI moves are local versions of rSPR moves, and provide bounds on the sizes of the rNNI neighborhoods. The paper focuses on the most biologically meaningful versions of phylogenetic networks, where edges are oriented and reticulation events clearly identified. Moreover, our rearrangement moves are robust to the fact that networks with higher complexity usually allow a better fit with the data. Our goal is to provide a solid basis for practical phylogenetic network reconstruction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A recent paper by Karin et al. introduced a mathematical notion called dynamical compensation (DC) of biological circuits. DC was shown to play an important role in glucose homeostasis as well as other key physiological regulatory mechanisms. Karin et al. went on to provide a sufficient condition to test whether a given system has the DC property. Here, we show how DC is a reformulation of a well-known concept in systems biology, statistics, and control theory—that of parameter structural non-identifiability. Viewing DC as a parameter identification problem enables one to take advantage of powerful theoretical and computational tools to test a system for DC. We obtain as a special case the sufficient criterion discussed by Karin et al. We also draw connections to system equivalence and to the fold-change detection property. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To eliminate and eradicate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), maximizing the effectiveness of active case finding is of key importance. The progression of the epidemic is largely influenced by the planning of these operations. This paper introduces and analyzes five models for predicting HAT prevalence in a given village based on past observed prevalence levels and past screening activities in that village. Based on the quality of prevalence level predictions in 143 villages in Kwamouth (DRC), and based on the theoretical foundation underlying the models, we consider variants of the Logistic Model—a model inspired by the SIS epidemic model—to be most suitable for predicting HAT prevalence levels. Furthermore, we demonstrate the applicability of this model to predict the effects of planning policies for screening operations. Our analysis yields an analytical expression for the screening frequency required to reach eradication (zero prevalence) and a simple approach for determining the frequency required to reach elimination within a given time frame (one case per 10000). Furthermore, the model predictions suggest that annual screening is only expected to lead to eradication if at least half of the cases are detected during the screening rounds. This paper extends knowledge on control strategies for HAT and serves as a basis for further modeling and optimization studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dendritic cells (DCs) are the most effective professional antigen-presenting cell. They ferry antigen from the extremities to T cells and are essential for the initiation of an adaptive immune response. Despite interest in how DCs respond to chemical stimuli, there have been few attempts to model DC migration. In this paper, we simulate the motility of DCs by modeling the generation of forces by filopodia and a force balance on the cell. The direction of fliopodial extension is coupled to differential occupancy of cognate chemokine receptors across the cell. Our model simulates chemokinesis and chemotaxis in a variety of chemical and mechanical environments. Simulated DCs undergoing chemokinesis were measured to have a speed of 5.1 ± 0.07 μm·min-1 and a persistence time of 3.2 ± 0.46 min, consistent with experiment. Cells undergoing chemotaxis exhibited a stronger chemotactic response when exposed to lower average chemokine concentrations, also consistent with experiment. We predicted that when placed in two opposing gradients, cells will cluster in a line, which we call the “line of equistimulation;” this clustering has also been observed. We calculated the effect of varying gradient steepness on the line of equistimulation, with steeper gradients resulting in tighter clustering. Moreover, gradients are found to be most potent when cells are in a gradient of chemokine whose mean concentration is close to the binding of the Kd to the receptor, and least potent when the mean concentration is 0.1Kd. Comparing our simulations to experiment, we can give a quantitative measure of the strength of certain chemokines relative to others. Assigning the signal of CCL19 binding CCR7 a baseline strength of 1, we found CCL21 binding CCR7 had a strength of 0.28, and CXCL12 binding CXCR4 had a strength of 0.30. These differences emerge despite both chemokines having virtually the same Kd, suggesting a mechanism of signal amplification in DCs requiring further study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cancer driver genes, i.e., oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes, are involved in the acquisition of important functions in tumors, providing a selective growth advantage, allowing uncontrolled proliferation and avoiding apoptosis. It is therefore important to identify these driver genes, both for the fundamental understanding of cancer and to help finding new therapeutic targets or biomarkers. Although the most frequently mutated driver genes have been identified, it is believed that many more remain to be discovered, particularly for driver genes specific to some cancer types. In this paper, we propose a new computational method called LOTUS to predict new driver genes. LOTUS is a machine-learning based approach which allows to integrate various types of data in a versatile manner, including information about gene mutations and protein-protein interactions. In addition, LOTUS can predict cancer driver genes in a pan-cancer setting as well as for specific cancer types, using a multitask learning strategy to share information across cancer types. We empirically show that LOTUS outperforms five other state-of-the-art driver gene prediction methods, both in terms of intrinsic consistency and prediction accuracy, and provide predictions of new cancer genes across many cancer types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prophylactic interventions such as vaccine allocation are some of the most effective public health policy planning tools. The supply of vaccines, however, is limited and an important challenge is to optimally allocate the vaccines to minimize epidemic impact. This resource allocation question (which we refer to as VID) has multiple dimensions: when, where, to whom, etc. Most of the existing literature in this topic deals with the latter (to whom), proposing policies that prioritize individuals by age and disease risk. However, since seasonal influenza spread has a typical spatial trend, and due to the temporal constraints enforced by the availability schedule, the when and where problems become equally, if not more, relevant. In this paper, we study the VID problem in the context of seasonal influenza spread in the United States. We develop a national scale metapopulation model for influenza that integrates both short and long distance human mobility, along with realistic data on vaccine uptake. We also design GA, a greedy algorithm for allocating the vaccine supply at the state level under temporal constraints and show that such a strategy improves over the current baseline of pro-rata allocation, and the improvement is more pronounced for higher vaccine efficacy and moderate flu season intensity. Further, the resulting strategy resembles a ring vaccination applied spatiallyacross the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major tenet in theoretical neuroscience is that cognitive and behavioral processes are ultimately implemented in terms of the neural system dynamics. Accordingly, a major aim for the analysis of neurophysiological measurements should lie in the identification of the computational dynamics underlying task processing. Here we advance a state space model (SSM) based on generative piecewise-linear recurrent neural networks (PLRNN) to assess dynamics from neuroimaging data. In contrast to many other nonlinear time series models which have been proposed for reconstructing latent dynamics, our model is easily interpretable in neural terms, amenable to systematic dynamical systems analysis of the resulting set of equations, and can straightforwardly be transformed into an equivalent continuous-time dynamical system. The major contributions of this paper are the introduction of a new observation model suitable for functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) coupled to the latent PLRNN, an efficient stepwise training procedure that forces the latent model to capture the ‘true’ underlying dynamics rather than just fitting (or predicting) the observations, and of an empirical measure based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence to evaluate from empirical time series how well this goal of approximating the underlying dynamics has been achieved. We validate and illustrate the power of our approach on simulated ‘ground-truth’ dynamical systems as well as on experimental fMRI time series, and demonstrate that the learnt dynamics harbors task-related nonlinear structure that a linear dynamical model fails to capture. Given that fMRI is one of the most common techniques for measuring brain activity non-invasively in human subjects, this approach may provide a novel step toward analyzing aberrant (nonlinear) dynamics for clinical assessment or neuroscientific research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our understanding of how chromosomes structurally organize and dynamically interact has been revolutionized through the lens of long-chain polymer physics. Major protein contributors to chromosome structure and dynamics are condensin and cohesin that stochastically generate loops within and between chains, and entrap proximal strands of sister chromatids. In this paper, we explore the ability of transient, protein-mediated, gene-gene crosslinks to induce clusters of genes, thereby dynamic architecture, within the highly repeated ribosomal DNA that comprises the nucleolus of budding yeast. We implement three approaches: live cell microscopy; computational modeling of the full genome during G1 in budding yeast, exploring four decades of timescales for transient crosslinks between 5kbp domains (genes) in the nucleolus on Chromosome XII; and, temporal network models with automated community (cluster) detection algorithms applied to the full range of 4D modeling datasets. The data analysis tools detect and track gene clusters, their size, number, persistence time, and their plasticity (deformation). Of biological significance, our analysis reveals an optimal mean crosslink lifetime that promotes pairwise and cluster gene interactions through “flexible” clustering. In this state, large gene clusters self-assemble yet frequently interact (merge and separate), marked by gene exchanges between clusters, which in turn maximizes global gene interactions in the nucleolus. This regime stands between two limiting cases each with far less global gene interactions: with shorter crosslink lifetimes, “rigid” clustering emerges with clusters that interact infrequently; with longer crosslink lifetimes, there is a dissolution of clusters. These observations are compared with imaging experiments on a normal yeast strain and two condensin-modified mutant cell strains. We apply the same image analysis pipeline to the experimental and simulated datasets, providing support for the modeling predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The olfactory system faces the difficult task of identifying an enormous variety of odors independent of their intensity. Primacy coding, where the odor identity is encoded by the receptor types that respond earliest, might provide a compact and informative representation that can be interpreted efficiently by the brain. In this paper, we analyze the information transmitted by a simple model of primacy coding using numerical simulations and statistical descriptions. We show that the encoded information depends strongly on the number of receptor types included in the primacy representation, but only weakly on the size of the receptor repertoire. The representation is independent of the odor intensity and the transmitted information is useful to perform typical olfactory tasks with close to experimentally measured performance. Interestingly, we find situations in which a smaller receptor repertoire is advantageous for discriminating odors. The model also suggests that overly sensitive receptor types could dominate the entire response and make the whole array useless, which allows us to predict how receptor arrays need to adapt to stay useful during environmental changes. Taken together, we show that primacy coding is more useful than simple binary and normalized coding, essentially because the sparsity of the odor representations is independent of the odor statistics, in contrast to the alternatives. Primacy coding thus provides an efficient odor representation that is independent of the odor intensity and might thus help to identify odors in the olfactory cortex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By integrating Haar wavelets with Hidden Markov Models, we achieve drastically reduced running times for Bayesian inference using Forward-Backward Gibbs sampling. We show that this improves detection of genomic copy number variants (CNV) in array CGH experiments compared to the state-of-the-art, including standard Gibbs sampling. The method concentrates computational effort on chromosomal segments which are difficult to call, by dynamically and adaptively recomputing consecutive blocks of observations likely to share a copy number. This makes routine diagnostic use and re-analysis of legacy data collections feasible; to this end, we also propose an effective automatic prior. An open source software implementation of our method is available at (DOI: ). This paper was selected for oral presentation at RECOMB 2016, and an abstract is published in the conference proceedings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systems biology models are used to understand complex biological and physiological systems. Interpretation of these models is an important part of developing this understanding. These models are often fit to experimental data in order to understand how the system has produced various phenomena or behaviour that are seen in the data. In this paper, we have outlined a framework that can be used to perform Bayesian analysis of complex systems biology models. In particular, we have focussed on analysing a systems biology of the brain using both simulated and measured data. By using a combination of sensitivity analysis and approximate Bayesian computation, we have shown that it is possible to obtain distributions of parameters that can better guard against misinterpretation of results, as compared to a maximum likelihood estimate based approach. This is done through analysis of simulated and experimental data. NIRS measurements were simulated using the same simulated systemic input data for the model in a ‘healthy’ and ‘impaired’ state. By analysing both of these datasets, we show that different parameter spaces can be distinguished and compared between different physiological states or conditions. Finally, we analyse experimental data using the new Bayesian framework and the previous maximum likelihood estimate approach, showing that the Bayesian approach provides a more complete understanding of the parameter space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important goal in researching the biology of olfaction is to link the perception of smells to the chemistry of odorants. In other words, why do some odorants smell like fruits and others like flowers? While the so-called stimulus-percept issue was resolved in the field of color vision some time ago, the relationship between the chemistry and psycho-biology of odors remains unclear up to the present day. Although a series of investigations have demonstrated that this relationship exists, the descriptive and explicative aspects of the proposed models that are currently in use require greater sophistication. One reason for this is that the algorithms of current models do not consistently consider the possibility that multiple chemical rules can describe a single quality despite the fact that this is the case in reality, whereby two very different molecules can evoke a similar odor. Moreover, the available datasets are often large and heterogeneous, thus rendering the generation of multiple rules without any use of a computational approach overly complex. We considered these two issues in the present paper. First, we built a new database containing 1689 odorants characterized by physicochemical properties and olfactory qualities. Second, we developed a computational method based on a subgroup discovery algorithm that discriminated perceptual qualities of smells on the basis of physicochemical properties. Third, we ran a series of experiments on 74 distinct olfactory qualities and showed that the generation and validation of rules linking chemistry to odor perception was possible. Taken together, our findings provide significant new insights into the relationship between stimulus and percept in olfaction. In addition, by automatically extracting new knowledge linking chemistry of odorants and psychology of smells, our results provide a new computational framework of analysis enabling scientists in the field to test original hypotheses using descriptive or predictive modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phylodynamic modelling, which studies the joint dynamics of epidemiological and evolutionary processes, has made significant progress in recent years due to increasingly available genomic data and advances in statistical modelling. These advances have greatly improved our understanding of transmission dynamics of many important pathogens. Nevertheless, there remains a lack of effective, targetted diagnostic tools for systematically detecting model mis-specification. Development of such tools is essential for model criticism, refinement, and calibration. The idea of utilising latent residuals for model assessment has already been exploited in general spatio-temporal epidemiological settings. Specifically, by proposing appropriately designed non-centered, re-parameterizations of a given epidemiological process, one can construct latent residuals with known sampling distributions which can be used to quantify evidence of model mis-specification. In this paper, we extend this idea to formulate a novel model-diagnostic framework for phylodynamic models. Using simulated examples, we show that our framework may effectively detect a particular form of mis-specification in a phylodynamic model, particularly in the event of superspreading. We also exemplify our approach by applying the framework to a dataset describing a local foot-and-mouth (FMD) outbreak in the UK, eliciting strong evidence against the assumption of no within-host-diversity in the outbreak. We further demonstrate that our framework can facilitate model calibration in real-life scenarios, by proposing a within-host-diversity model which appears to offer a better fit to data than one that assumes no within-host-diversity of FMD virus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]