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Robustly predicting outcome for cancer patients from gene expression is an important challenge on the road to better personalized treatment. Network-based outcome predictors (NOPs), which considers the cellular wiring diagram in the classification, hold much promise to improve performance, stability and interpretability of identified marker genes. Problematically, reports on the efficacy of NOPs are conflicting and for instance suggest that utilizing random networks performs on par to networks that describe biologically relevant interactions. In this paper we turn the prediction problem around: instead of using a given biological network in the NOP, we aim to identify the network of genes that truly improves outcome prediction. To this end, we propose SyNet, a gene network constructed ab initio from synergistic gene pairs derived from survival-labelled gene expression data. To obtain SyNet, we evaluate synergy for all 69 million pairwise combinations of genes resulting in a network that is specific to the dataset and phenotype under study and can be used to in a NOP model. We evaluated SyNet and 11 other networks on a compendium dataset of >4000 survival-labelled breast cancer samples. For this purpose, we used cross-study validation which more closely emulates real world application of these outcome predictors. We find that SyNet is the only network that truly improves performance, stability and interpretability in several existing NOPs. We show that SyNet overlaps significantly with existing gene networks, and can be confidently predicted (~85% AUC) from graph-topological descriptions of these networks, in particular the breast tissue-specific network. Due to its data-driven nature, SyNet is not biased to well-studied genes and thus facilitates post-hoc interpretation. We find that SyNet is highly enriched for known breast cancer genes and genes related to e.g. histological grade and tamoxifen resistance, suggestive of a role in determining breast cancer outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gene expression regulators, such as transcription factors (TFs) and microRNAs (miRNAs), have varying regulatory targets based on the tissue and physiological state (context) within which they are expressed. While the emergence of regulator-characterizing experiments has inferred the target genes of many regulators across many contexts, methods for transferring regulator target genes across contexts are lacking. Further, regulator target gene lists frequently are not curated or have permissive inclusion criteria, impairing their use. Here, we present a method called iterative Contextual Transcriptional Activity Inference of Regulators (icTAIR) to resolve these issues. icTAIR takes a regulator’s previously-identified target gene list and combines it with gene expression data from a context, quantifying that regulator’s activity for that context. It then calculates the correlation between each listed target gene’s expression and the quantitative score of regulatory activity, removes the uncorrelated genes from the list, and iterates the process until it derives a stable list of refined target genes. To validate and demonstrate icTAIR’s power, we use it to refine the MSigDB c3 database of TF, miRNA and unclassified motif target gene lists for breast cancer. We then use its output for survival analysis with clinicopathological multivariable adjustment in 7 independent breast cancer datasets covering 3,430 patients. We uncover many novel prognostic regulators that were obscured prior to refinement, in particular NFY, and offer a detailed look at the composition and relationships among the breast cancer prognostic regulome. We anticipate icTAIR will be of general use in contextually refining regulator target genes for discoveries across many contexts. The icTAIR algorithm can be downloaded from . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]