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Cohort studies, randomized trials, and post-licensure studies have reported reduced natural and vaccine-derived protection against rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) in low- and middle-income countries. While susceptibility of children to rotavirus is known to vary within and between settings, implications for estimation of immune protection are not well understood. We sought to re-estimate naturally-acquired protection against rotavirus infection and RVGE, and to understand how differences in susceptibility among children impacted estimates. We re-analyzed data from studies conducted in Mexico City, Mexico and Vellore, India. Cumulatively, 573 rotavirus-unvaccinated children experienced 1418 rotavirus infections and 371 episodes of RVGE over 17,636 child-months. We developed a model that characterized susceptibility to rotavirus infection and RVGE among children, accounting for aspects of the natural history of rotavirus and differences in transmission rates between settings. We tested whether model-generated susceptibility measurements were associated with demographic and anthropometric factors, and with the severity of RVGE symptoms. We identified greater variation in susceptibility to rotavirus infection and RVGE in Vellore than in Mexico City. In both cohorts, susceptibility to rotavirus infection and RVGE were associated with male sex, lower birth weight, lower maternal education, and having fewer siblings; within Vellore, susceptibility was also associated with lower socioeconomic status. Children who were more susceptible to rotavirus also experienced higher rates of rotavirus-negative diarrhea, and higher risk of moderate-to-severe symptoms when experiencing RVGE. Simulations suggested that discrepant estimates of naturally-acquired immunity against RVGE can be attributed, in part, to between-setting differences in susceptibility of children, but result primarily from the interaction of transmission rates with age-dependent risk for infections to cause RVGE. We found that more children in Vellore than in Mexico City belong to a high-risk group for rotavirus infection and RVGE, and demonstrate that unmeasured individual- and age-dependent susceptibility may influence estimates of naturally-acquired immune protection against RVGE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the highly dynamic and complex nature of the human gut microbial community, the ability to identify and predict time-dependent compositional patterns of microbes is crucial to our understanding of the structure and functions of this ecosystem. One factor that could affect such time-dependent patterns is microbial interactions, wherein community composition at a given time point affects the microbial composition at a later time point. However, the field has not yet settled on the degree of this effect. Specifically, it has been recently suggested that only a minority of taxa depend on the microbial composition in earlier times. To address the issue of identifying and predicting temporal microbial patterns we developed a new model, MTV-LMM (Microbial Temporal Variability Linear Mixed Model), a linear mixed model for the prediction of microbial community temporal dynamics. MTV-LMM can identify time-dependent microbes (i.e., microbes whose abundance can be predicted based on the previous microbial composition) in longitudinal studies, which can then be used to analyze the trajectory of the microbiome over time. We evaluated the performance of MTV-LMM on real and synthetic time series datasets, and found that MTV-LMM outperforms commonly used methods for microbiome time series modeling. Particularly, we demonstrate that the effect of the microbial composition in previous time points on the abundance of taxa at later time points is underestimated by a factor of at least 10 when applying previous approaches. Using MTV-LMM, we demonstrate that a considerable portion of the human gut microbiome, both in infants and adults, has a significant time-dependent component that can be predicted based on microbiome composition in earlier time points. This suggests that microbiome composition at a given time point is a major factor in defining future microbiome composition and that this phenomenon is considerably more common than previously reported for the human gut microbiome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human populations show rich cultural diversity. Underpinning this diversity of tools, rituals, and cultural norms are complex interactions between cultural evolutionary and demographic processes. Most models of cultural change assume that individuals use the same learning modes and methods throughout their lives. However, empirical data on ‘learning life histories’—the balance of dominant modes of learning (for example, learning from parents, peers, or unrelated elders) throughout an individual’s lifetime—suggest that age structure may play a crucial role in determining learning modes and cultural evolutionary trajectories. Thus, studied in isolation, demographic and cultural evolutionary models show only part of the picture. This paper describes a mathematical and computational framework that combines demographic and cultural evolutionary methods. Using this general framework, we examine interactions between the ways in which culture is spread throughout an individual’s lifetime and cultural change across generations. We show that including demographic structure alongside cultural dynamics can help to explain domain-specific patterns of cultural evolution that are a persistent feature of cultural data, and can shed new light on rare but significant demographic events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For encapsulated bacteria such as Streptococcus pneumoniae, asymptomatic carriage is more common and longer in duration than disease, and hence is often a more convenient endpoint for clinical trials of vaccines against these bacteria. However, using a carriage endpoint entails specific challenges. Carriage is almost always measured as prevalence, whereas the vaccine may act by reducing incidence or duration. Thus, to determine sample size requirements, its impact on prevalence must first be estimated. The relationship between incidence and prevalence (or duration and prevalence) is convex, saturating at 100% prevalence. For this reason, the proportional effect of a vaccine on prevalence is typically less than its proportional effect on incidence or duration. This relationship is further complicated in the presence of multiple pathogen strains. In addition, host immunity to carriage accumulates rapidly with frequent exposures in early years of life, creating potentially complex interactions with the vaccine’s effect. We conducted a simulation study to predict the impact of an inactivated whole cell pneumococcal vaccine—believed to reduce carriage duration—on carriage prevalence in different age groups and trial settings. We used an individual-based model of pneumococcal carriage that incorporates relevant immunological processes, both vaccine-induced and naturally acquired. Our simulations showed that for a wide range of vaccine efficacies, sampling time and age at vaccination are important determinants of sample size. There is a window of favorable sampling times during which the required sample size is relatively low, and this window is prolonged with a younger age at vaccination, and in a trial setting with lower transmission intensity. These results illustrate the ability of simulation studies to inform the planning of vaccine trials with carriage endpoints, and the methods we present here can be applied to trials evaluating other pneumococcal vaccine candidates or comparing alternative dosing schedules for the existing conjugate vaccines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Annual incidence rates of varicella infection in the general population in France have been rather stable since 1991 when clinical surveillance started. Rates however show a statistically significant increase over time in children aged 0–3 years, and a decline in older individuals. A significant increase in day-care enrolment and structures’ capacity in France was also observed in the last decade. In this work we investigate the potential interplay between an increase of contacts of young children possibly caused by earlier socialization in the community and varicella transmission dynamics. To this aim, we develop an age-structured mathematical model, informed with historical demographic data and contact matrix estimates in the country, accounting for longitudinal linear increase of early childhood contacts. While the reported overall varicella incidence is well reproduced independently of mixing variations, age-specific empirical trends are better captured by accounting for an increase in contacts among pre-school children in the last decades. We found that the varicella data are consistent with a 30% increase in the number of contacts at day-care facilities, which would imply a 50% growth in the contribution of 0-3y old children to overall yearly infections in 1991–2015. Our findings suggest that an earlier exposure to pathogens due to changes in day-care contact patterns, represents a plausible explanation for the epidemiological patterns observed in France. Obtained results suggest that considering temporal changes in social factors in addition to demographic ones is critical to correctly interpret varicella transmission dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Menopause, the permanent cessation of ovulation, occurs in humans well before the end of the expected lifespan, leading to an extensive post-reproductive period which remains a puzzle for evolutionary biologists. All human populations display this particularity; thus, it is difficult to empirically evaluate the conditions for its emergence. In this study, we used artificial neural networks to model the emergence and evolution of allocation decisions related to reproduction in simulated populations. When allocation decisions were allowed to freely evolve, both menopause and extensive post-reproductive life-span emerged under some ecological conditions. This result allowed us to test various hypotheses about the required conditions for the emergence of menopause and extensive post-reproductive life-span. Our findings did not support the Maternal Hypothesis (menopause has evolved to avoid the risk of dying in childbirth, which is higher in older women). In contrast, results supported a shared prediction from the Grandmother Hypothesis and the Embodied Capital Model. Indeed, we found that extensive post-reproductive lifespan allows resource reallocation to increase fertility of the children and survival of the grandchildren. Furthermore, neural capital development and the skill intensiveness of the foraging niche, rather than strength, played a major role in shaping the age profile of somatic and cognitive senescence in our simulated populations. This result supports the Embodied Capital Model rather than the Grand-Mother Hypothesis. Finally, in simulated populations where menopause had already evolved, we found that reduced post-reproductive lifespan lead to reduced children’s fertility and grandchildren’s survival. The results are discussed in the context of the evolutionary emergence of menopause and extensive post-reproductive life-span. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study objective is to estimate the epidemiological and economic impact of vaccine interventions during influenza pandemics in Chicago, and assist in vaccine intervention priorities. Scenarios of delay in vaccine introduction with limited vaccine efficacy and limited supplies are not unlikely in future influenza pandemics, as in the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. We simulated influenza pandemics in Chicago using agent-based transmission dynamic modeling. Population was distributed among high-risk and non-high risk among 0–19, 20–64 and 65+ years subpopulations. Different attack rate scenarios for catastrophic (30.15%), strong (21.96%), and moderate (11.73%) influenza pandemics were compared against vaccine intervention scenarios, at 40% coverage, 40% efficacy, and unit cost of $28.62. Sensitivity analysis for vaccine compliance, vaccine efficacy and vaccine start date was also conducted. Vaccine prioritization criteria include risk of death, total deaths, net benefits, and return on investment. The risk of death is the highest among the high-risk 65+ years subpopulation in the catastrophic influenza pandemic, and highest among the high-risk 0–19 years subpopulation in the strong and moderate influenza pandemics. The proportion of total deaths and net benefits are the highest among the high-risk 20–64 years subpopulation in the catastrophic, strong and moderate influenza pandemics. The return on investment is the highest in the high-risk 0–19 years subpopulation in the catastrophic, strong and moderate influenza pandemics. Based on risk of death and return on investment, high-risk groups of the three age group subpopulations can be prioritized for vaccination, and the vaccine interventions are cost saving for all age and risk groups. The attack rates among the children are higher than among the adults and seniors in the catastrophic, strong, and moderate influenza pandemic scenarios, due to their larger social contact network and homophilous interactions in school. Based on return on investment and higher attack rates among children, we recommend prioritizing children (0–19 years) and seniors (65+ years) after high-risk groups for influenza vaccination during times of limited vaccine supplies. Based on risk of death, we recommend prioritizing seniors (65+ years) after high-risk groups for influenza vaccination during times of limited vaccine supplies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During language processing, humans form complex embedded representations from sequential inputs. Here, we ask whether a “geometrical language” with recursive embedding also underlies the human ability to encode sequences of spatial locations. We introduce a novel paradigm in which subjects are exposed to a sequence of spatial locations on an octagon, and are asked to predict future locations. The sequences vary in complexity according to a well-defined language comprising elementary primitives and recursive rules. A detailed analysis of error patterns indicates that primitives of symmetry and rotation are spontaneously detected and used by adults, preschoolers, and adult members of an indigene group in the Amazon, the Munduruku, who have a restricted numerical and geometrical lexicon and limited access to schooling. Furthermore, subjects readily combine these geometrical primitives into hierarchically organized expressions. By evaluating a large set of such combinations, we obtained a first view of the language needed to account for the representation of visuospatial sequences in humans, and conclude that they encode visuospatial sequences by minimizing the complexity of the structured expressions that capture them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little is currently known about dynamic brain networks involved in high-level cognition and their ontological basis. Here we develop a novel Variational Bayesian Hidden Markov Model (VB-HMM) to investigate dynamic temporal properties of interactions between salience (SN), default mode (DMN), and central executive (CEN) networks—three brain systems that play a critical role in human cognition. In contrast to conventional models, VB-HMM revealed multiple short-lived states characterized by rapid switching and transient connectivity between SN, CEN, and DMN. Furthermore, the three “static” networks occurred in a segregated state only intermittently. Findings were replicated in two adult cohorts from the Human Connectome Project. VB-HMM further revealed immature dynamic interactions between SN, CEN, and DMN in children, characterized by higher mean lifetimes in individual states, reduced switching probability between states and less differentiated connectivity across states. Our computational techniques provide new insights into human brain network dynamics and its maturation with development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adults combine information from different sensory modalities to estimate object properties such as size or location. This process is optimal in that (i) sensory information is weighted according to relative reliability: more reliable estimates have more influence on the combined estimate and (ii) the combined estimate is more reliable than the component uni-modal estimates. Previous studies suggest that optimal sensory integration does not emerge until around 10 years of age. Younger children rely on a single modality or combine information using inappropriate sensory weights. Children aged 4–11 and adults completed a simple audio-visual task in which they reported either the number of beeps or the number of flashes in uni-modal and bi-modal conditions. In bi-modal trials, beeps and flashes differed in number by 0, 1 or 2. Mutual interactions between the sensory signals were evident at all ages: the reported number of flashes was influenced by the number of simultaneously presented beeps and vice versa. Furthermore, for all ages, the relative strength of these interactions was predicted by the relative reliabilities of the two modalities, in other words, all observers weighted the signals appropriately. The degree of cross-modal interaction decreased with age: the youngest observers could not ignore the task-irrelevant modality—they fully combined vision and audition such that they perceived equal numbers of flashes and beeps for bi-modal stimuli. Older observers showed much smaller effects of the task-irrelevant modality. Do these interactions reflect optimal integration? Full or partial cross-modal integration predicts improved reliability in bi-modal conditions. In contrast, switching between modalities reduces reliability. Model comparison suggests that older observers employed partial integration, whereas younger observers (up to around 8 years) did not integrate, but followed a sub-optimal switching strategy, responding according to either visual or auditory information on each trial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]