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Operon prediction in prokaryotes is critical not only for understanding the regulation of endogenous gene expression, but also for exogenous targeting of genes using newly developed tools such as CRISPR-based gene modulation. A number of methods have used transcriptomics data to predict operons, based on the premise that contiguous genes in an operon will be expressed at similar levels. While promising results have been observed using these methods, most of them do not address uncertainty caused by technical variability between experiments, which is especially relevant when the amount of data available is small. In addition, many existing methods do not provide the flexibility to determine the stringency with which genes should be evaluated for being in an operon pair. We present OperonSEQer, a set of machine learning algorithms that uses the statistic and p-value from a non-parametric analysis of variance test (Kruskal-Wallis) to determine the likelihood that two adjacent genes are expressed from the same RNA molecule. We implement a voting system to allow users to choose the stringency of operon calls depending on whether your priority is high recall or high specificity. In addition, we provide the code so that users can retrain the algorithm and re-establish hyperparameters based on any data they choose, allowing for this method to be expanded as additional data is generated. We show that our approach detects operon pairs that are missed by current methods by comparing our predictions to publicly available long-read sequencing data. OperonSEQer therefore improves on existing methods in terms of accuracy, flexibility, and adaptability., Author summary Bacteria and archaea, single-cell organisms collectively known as prokaryotes, live in all imaginable environments and comprise the majority of living organisms on this planet. Prokaryotes play a critical role in the homeostasis of multicellular organisms (such as animals and plants) and ecosystems. In addition, bacteria can be pathogenic and cause a variety of diseases in these same hosts and ecosystems. In short, understanding the biology and molecular functions of bacteria and archaea and devising mechanisms to engineer and optimize their properties are critical scientific endeavors with significant implications in healthcare, agriculture, manufacturing, and climate science among others. One major molecular difference between unicellular and multicellular organisms is the way they express genes–multicellular organisms make individual RNA molecules for each gene while, prokaryotes express operons (i.e., a group of genes coding functionally related proteins) in contiguous polycistronic RNA molecules. Understanding which genes exist within operons is critical for elucidating basic biology and for engineering organisms. In this work, we use a combination of statistical and machine learning-based methods to use next-generation sequencing data to predict operon structure across a range of prokaryotes. Our method provides an easily implemented, robust, accurate, and flexible way to determine operon structure in an organism-agnostic manner using readily available data.

microRNAs (miRNAs) are small non-coding RNAs related to a number of complicated biological processes. A growing body of studies have suggested that miRNAs are closely associated with many human diseases. It is meaningful to consider disease-related miRNAs as potential biomarkers, which could greatly contribute to understanding the mechanisms of complex diseases and benefit the prevention, detection, diagnosis and treatment of extraordinary diseases. In this study, we presented a novel model named Graph Convolutional Autoencoder for miRNA-Disease Association Prediction (GCAEMDA). In the proposed model, we utilized miRNA-miRNA similarities, disease-disease similarities and verified miRNA-disease associations to construct a heterogeneous network, which is applied to learn the embeddings of miRNAs and diseases. In addition, we separately constructed miRNA-based and disease-based sub-networks. Combining the embeddings of miRNAs and diseases, graph convolutional autoencoder (GCAE) was utilized to calculate association scores of miRNA-disease on two sub-networks, respectively. Furthermore, we obtained final prediction scores between miRNAs and diseases by adopting an average ensemble way to integrate the prediction scores from two types of subnetworks. To indicate the accuracy of GCAEMDA, we applied different cross validation methods to evaluate our model whose performances were better than the state-of-the-art models. Case studies on a common human diseases were also implemented to prove the effectiveness of GCAEMDA. The results demonstrated that GCAEMDA was beneficial to infer potential associations of miRNA-disease., Author summary Numerous studies have demonstrated that miRNAs are closely related to several common human diseases, so observing unverified associations between miRNAs and diseases is conducive to the diagnose and treatment of complex diseases. Considerable models proposed to infer potential miRNA-disease associations have made the prediction more effective and productive. We constructed GCAEMDA model to acquire more accuracy prediction result by integrating graph convolutional network and autoencoder to make prediction based on multi-source miRNA and disease information. The five-fold cross validation and global leave-one-out cross validation were implemented to evaluate the performance of our model. Consequently, GCAEMDA reached AUCs of 0.9415 and 0.9505 respectively that were distinctly higher than AUCs of other comparative models. Furthermore, we carried out case studies on lung neoplasms and breast neoplasms to demonstrate the practical application of the model, 47 and 47 of top-50 candidate miRNAs were confirmed by experimental reports. In summary, GCAEMDA could be considered as an effective and accuracy model to reveal relationship between miRNAs and diseases.

It is generally accepted that the number of neurons in a given brain area far exceeds the number of neurons needed to carry any specific function controlled by that area. For example, motor areas of the human brain contain tens of millions of neurons that control the activation of tens or at most hundreds of muscles. This massive redundancy implies the covariation of many neurons, which constrains the population activity to a low-dimensional manifold within the space of all possible patterns of neural activity. To gain a conceptual understanding of the complexity of the neural activity within a manifold, it is useful to estimate its dimensionality, which quantifies the number of degrees of freedom required to describe the observed population activity without significant information loss. While there are many algorithms for dimensionality estimation, we do not know which are well suited for analyzing neural activity. The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of several representative algorithms for estimating the dimensionality of linearly and nonlinearly embedded data. We generated synthetic neural recordings with known intrinsic dimensionality and used them to test the algorithms’ accuracy and robustness. We emulated some of the important challenges associated with experimental data by adding noise, altering the nature of the embedding of the low-dimensional manifold within the high-dimensional recordings, varying the dimensionality of the manifold, and limiting the amount of available data. We demonstrated that linear algorithms overestimate the dimensionality of nonlinear, noise-free data. In cases of high noise, most algorithms overestimated the dimensionality. We thus developed a denoising algorithm based on deep learning, the “Joint Autoencoder”, which significantly improved subsequent dimensionality estimation. Critically, we found that all algorithms failed when the intrinsic dimensionality was high (above 20) or when the amount of data used for estimation was low. Based on the challenges we observed, we formulated a pipeline for estimating the dimensionality of experimental neural data., Author summary The number of neurons that we can simultaneously record from has increased exponentially for decades; today that number is in the thousands of neurons. However, the individual firing rates are highly redundant. One approach to identifying important features from redundant data is to estimate the dimensionality of the neural recordings, which represents the number of degrees of freedom required to describe the data without significant information loss. Better understanding of dimensionality may also uncover the mechanisms of computation within a neural circuit. Circuits carrying out complex computations might be higher-dimensional than those carrying out simpler computations. Typically, studies have quantified neural dimensionality using one of several available methods reflecting a lack of consensus on which method would be most appropriate for neural data. In this work, we used several methods to investigate the accuracy of simulated neural data with properties mimicking those of actual neural recordings. Based on these results, we devised an analysis pipeline to estimate the dimensionality of neural recordings. Our work will allow scientists to extract informative features from a large number of highly redundant neurons, as well as quantify the complexity of information encoded by these neurons.

Predictions of COVID-19 case growth and mortality are critical to the decisions of political leaders, businesses, and individuals grappling with the pandemic. This predictive task is challenging due to the novelty of the virus, limited data, and dynamic political and societal responses. We embed a Bayesian time series model and a random forest algorithm within an epidemiological compartmental model for empirically grounded COVID-19 predictions. The Bayesian case model fits a location-specific curve to the velocity (first derivative) of the log transformed cumulative case count, borrowing strength across geographic locations and incorporating prior information to obtain a posterior distribution for case trajectories. The compartmental model uses this distribution and predicts deaths using a random forest algorithm trained on COVID-19 data and population-level characteristics, yielding daily projections and interval estimates for cases and deaths in U.S. states. We evaluated the model by training it on progressively longer periods of the pandemic and computing its predictive accuracy over 21-day forecasts. The substantial variation in predicted trajectories and associated uncertainty between states is illustrated by comparing three unique locations: New York, Colorado, and West Virginia. The sophistication and accuracy of this COVID-19 model offer reliable predictions and uncertainty estimates for the current trajectory of the pandemic in the U.S. and provide a platform for future predictions as shifting political and societal responses alter its course., Author summary COVID-19 models can be roughly classified as mathematical models that simulate disease within a population, including epidemiological compartmental models, or statistical curve-fitting models that fit a function to observed data and extrapolate forward into the future. Bridging this divide, we combine the strengths of curve-fitting statistical models and the structure of epidemiological models, by embedding a Bayesian velocity model and a machine learning algorithm (random forest) into the framework of a compartmental model. Fusing these models together exploits the particular strengths of each to glean as much information as possible from the currently available data. We identify the velocity of log cumulative cases as an excellent target for modeling and extrapolating COVID-19 case trajectories. We empirically evaluate the predictive performance of the model and provide predicted trajectories with credible intervals for cumulative confirmed case count, active confirmed infections and COVID-19 deaths for each of the 50 U.S. states. Combining sophisticated data analytic methods with proven epidemiological models offers an empirically grounded strategy for making realistic predictions and quantifying their uncertainty. These predictions indicate substantial variation in the COVID-19 trajectories of U.S. states.

Metabolic inference from genomic sequence information is a necessary step in determining the capacity of cells to make a living in the world at different levels of biological organization. A common method for determining the metabolic potential encoded in genomes is to map conceptually translated open reading frames onto a database containing known product descriptions. Such gene-centric methods are limited in their capacity to predict pathway presence or absence and do not support standardized rule sets for automated and reproducible research. Pathway-centric methods based on defined rule sets or machine learning algorithms provide an adjunct or alternative inference method that supports hypothesis generation and testing of metabolic relationships within and between cells. Here, we present mlLGPR, multi-label based on logistic regression for pathway prediction, a software package that uses supervised multi-label classification and rich pathway features to infer metabolic networks in organismal and multi-organismal datasets. We evaluated mlLGPR performance using a corpora of 12 experimental datasets manifesting diverse multi-label properties, including manually curated organismal genomes, synthetic microbial communities and low complexity microbial communities. Resulting performance metrics equaled or exceeded previous reports for organismal genomes and identify specific challenges associated with features engineering and training data for community-level metabolic inference., Author summary Predicting the complex series of metabolic interactions e.g. pathways, within and between cells from genomic sequence information is an integral problem in biology linking genotype to phenotype. This is a prerequisite to both understanding fundamental life processes and ultimately engineering these processes for specific biotechnological applications. A pathway prediction problem exists because we have limited knowledge of the reactions and pathways operating in cells even in model organisms like Esherichia coli where the majority of protein functions are determined. To improve pathway prediction outcomes for genomes at different levels of complexity and completion we have developed mlLGPR, multi-label based on logistic regression for pathway prediction, a scalable open source software package that uses supervised multi-label classification and rich pathway features to infer metabolic networks. We benchmark mlLGPR performance against other inference methods providing a code base and metrics for continued application of machine learning methods to the pathway prediction problem.

The microbiome is a new frontier for building predictors of human phenotypes. However, machine learning in the microbiome is fraught with issues of reproducibility, driven in large part by the wide range of analytic models and metagenomic data types available. We aimed to build robust metagenomic predictors of host phenotype by comparing prediction performances and biological interpretation across 8 machine learning methods and 4 different types of metagenomic data. Using 1,570 samples from 300 infants, we fit 7,865 models for 6 host phenotypes. We demonstrate the dependence of accuracy on algorithm choice and feature definition in microbiome data and propose a framework for building microbiome-derived indicators of host phenotype. We additionally identify biological features predictive of age, sex, breastfeeding status, historical antibiotic usage, country of origin, and delivery type. Our complete results can be viewed at http://apps.chiragjpgroup.org/ubiome_predictions/., Author summary The human microbiome is hypothesized to influence human phenotype. However, many published host-microbe associations may not be reproducible. A number of reasons could be behind irreproducible results, including a wide array of methods for measuring the microbiome through genetic sequence, annotation pipelines, and analytical models/prediction approaches. Therefore, there is a need to compare different modeling strategies and microbiome data types (i.e. species abundance versus metabolic pathway abundance) to determine how to build robust and reproducible host-microbiome predictions. In this work, we executed a broad comparison of different predictive methods as a function of microbiome data types to effectively predict host characteristics. Our pipeline was able uncover robust microbial associations with phenotype. We additionally recommended considerations for reproducible microbiome-host association pipeline development. We claim our work is a necessary stepping stone in increasing the utility of emerging cohort data and enabling the next generation of efficient microbiome association studies in human health.

Accurately predicting and testing the types of Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) of each patient using cost-effective microarray-based expression data and machine learning algorithms could greatly help either identifying the most targeting medicine or adopting other therapeutic measures that could correct/restore defective genetic signaling at the early stage. Furthermore, the prediction model construction processes can also help identifying highly informative genes controlling PAH, leading to enhanced understanding of the disease etiology and molecular pathways. In this study, we used several different gene filtering methods based on microarray expression data obtained from a high-quality patient PAH dataset. Following that, we proposed a novel feature selection and refinement algorithm in conjunction with well-known machine learning methods to identify a small set of highly informative genes. Results indicated that clusters of small-expression genes could be extremely informative at predicting and differentiating different forms of PAH. Additionally, our proposed novel feature refinement algorithm could lead to significant enhancement in model performance. To summarize, integrated with state-of-the-art machine learning and novel feature refining algorithms, the most accurate models could provide near-perfect classification accuracies using very few (close to ten) low-expression genes., Author summary Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a serious and progressive disease, with only a roughly 50% of 5-year survival rate even with best available therapies. Accurately detecting/differentiating different forms of PAH and developing drugs that could directly target at genes involved in PAH pathogenesis are essential. We proposed a computational approach using low-cost microarray data collected from a clinical trial and had accurately predicted each PAH group. In particular, we considered the fact that there might exist some low-expression genes that were usually discarded by researchers but might function collectively and significantly controlling the disease in each case. Therefore, we had developed different filtering algorithms that intentionally selected those low-expression genes for constructing prediction model. Using a few highly informative low-expression genes that had never been extensively investigated before, our systematic approach had produced models that could offer prefect accuracy in predicting PAH. Additionally, our analysis also found that the composition of gene factors controlling the PAH etiology under each form are quite different from each other.

Place cells in the mammalian hippocampus signal self-location with sparse spatially stable firing fields. Based on observation of place cell activity it is possible to accurately decode an animal’s location. The precision of this decoding sets a lower bound for the amount of information that the hippocampal population conveys about the location of the animal. In this work we use a novel recurrent neural network (RNN) decoder to infer the location of freely moving rats from single unit hippocampal recordings. RNNs are biologically plausible models of neural circuits that learn to incorporate relevant temporal context without the need to make complicated assumptions about the use of prior information to predict the current state. When decoding animal position from spike counts in 1D and 2D-environments, we show that the RNN consistently outperforms a standard Bayesian approach with either flat priors or with memory. In addition, we also conducted a set of sensitivity analysis on the RNN decoder to determine which neurons and sections of firing fields were the most influential. We found that the application of RNNs to neural data allowed flexible integration of temporal context, yielding improved accuracy relative to the more commonly used Bayesian approaches and opens new avenues for exploration of the neural code., Author summary Being able to accurately self-localize is critical for most motile organisms. In mammals, place cells in the hippocampus appear to be a central component of the brain network responsible for this ability. In this work we recorded the activity of a population of hippocampal neurons from freely moving rodents and carried out neural decoding to determine the animals’ locations. We found that a machine learning approach using recurrent neural networks (RNNs) allowed us to predict the rodents’ true positions more accurately than a standard Bayesian method with flat priors (i.e. maximum likelihood estimator, MLE) as well as a Bayesian approach with memory (i.e. with priors informed by past activity). The RNNs are able to take into account past neural activity without making assumptions about the statistics of neuronal firing. Further, by analyzing the representations learned by the network we were able to determine which neurons, and which aspects of their activity, contributed most strongly to the accurate decoding.

Survival analysis represents an important outcome measure in clinical research and clinical trials; further, survival ranking may offer additional advantages in clinical trials. In this study, we developed GuanRank, a non-parametric ranking-based technique to transform patients' survival data into a linear space of hazard ranks. The transformation enables the utilization of machine learning base-learners including Gaussian process regression, Lasso, and random forest on survival data. The method was submitted to the DREAM Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) Stratification Challenge. Ranked first place, the model gave more accurate ranking predictions on the PRO-ACT ALS dataset in comparison to Cox proportional hazard model. By utilizing right-censored data in its training process, the method demonstrated its state-of-the-art predictive power in ALS survival ranking. Its feature selection identified multiple important factors, some of which conflicts with previous studies., Author summary We present a novel rank-based algorithm that outputs the survival likelihood of the ALS patients from the survival data. This novel method enabled us to adopt commonplace machine learning base-learners in survival analysis of ALS and provided insight into the disease.