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Fundamental scientific advances can take decades to translate into improvements in human health. Shortening this interval would increase the rate at which scientific discoveries lead to successful treatment of human disease. One way to accomplish this would be to identify which advances in knowledge are most likely to translate into clinical research. Toward that end, we built a machine learning system that detects whether a paper is likely to be cited by a future clinical trial or guideline. Despite the noisiness of citation dynamics, as little as 2 years of postpublication data yield accurate predictions about a paper's eventual citation by a clinical article (accuracy = 84%, F1 score = 0.56; compared to 19% accuracy by chance). We found that distinct knowledge flow trajectories are linked to papers that either succeed or fail to influence clinical research. Translational progress in biomedicine can therefore be assessed and predicted in real time based on information conveyed by the scientific community's early reaction to a paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Restoration of communication in people with complete motor paralysis—a condition called complete locked-in state (CLIS)—is one of the greatest challenges of brain-computer interface (BCI) research. New findings have recently been presented that bring us one step closer to this goal. However, the validity of the evidence has been questioned: independent reanalysis of the same data yielded significantly different results. Reasons for the failure to replicate the findings must be of a methodological nature. What is the best practice to ensure that results are stringent and conclusive and analyses replicable? Confirmation bias and the counterintuitive nature of probability may lead to an overly optimistic interpretation of new evidence. Lack of detail complicates replicability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]