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Human-induced warming may increase the risk of local extinction for plant species with low tolerance of elevated temperatures. The Chihuahuan desert harbors the highest diversity of globose cacti in the world and most of them are at risk of extinction. Predictive models of climate change indicate an increase in summer temperature of 1-2°C by 2030 for this desert. Nevertheless, studies on the vulnerability of cacti species in early development phases to future climate change are scarce. We assessed the survival of three threatened cacti species from the Chihuahuan desert under induced warming. Open-top chambers ( OTCs) were used to simulate the effect of global warming on 2-year seedlings of E chinocactus platyacanthus f. visnaga, F erocactus histrix and S tenocactus coptonogonus. OTCs had higher temperature and lower humidity than control plots, and these elevated temperatures reduced seedling survival. Within the OTCs, no living individuals of any species were found after 105 days. Conversely, in the control plots, the three cacti species showed variable numbers of survivors after this period. Therefore the predicted global warming scenarios will greatly limit plant recruitment and the long-term persistence of natural populations of Mexican endemic cacti species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The genetic diversity of Agave plants is threatened by clonal commercial reproduction and climatic change. Sexual reproduction is uncommon and research on seed germination is scarce. The present study evaluated the seed germination of Agave lechuguilla, Agave striata, Agave americana var. marginata, Agave asperrima, Agave cupreata, Agave duranguesis, Agave angustifolia ssp. tequilana and Agave salmiana at constant temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40°C). Initial imbibition (after the first 12 h) was significantly variable among species, positively correlated with seed weight ( r = 0.6560, P < 0.001) and increased with temperature (from 35% at 10°C to 66% at 40°C). Temperature affected maximum imbibition (83-150%) for A. asperrima, A. lechuguilla, A. salmiana and A. striata; other species averaged 110%. Most germination kinetics best fitted a logistic model, whereas only a few treatments fit a Weibull model. The time to germination onset diminished ( P < 0.05) from 125-173 h at 15°C to 68-84 h at 25°C, and then ascended to 84-196 h at 35°C. The mean germination rate and seed germination percentage after 312 h peaked at 25°C (0.50-0.95% seeds/h and 85-99%, respectively) and fell ( P < 0.05) to near zero at 10 and 40°C. Temperatures of 10, 35 and 40°C were partially lethal to A. asperrima, A. duranguensis and A. salmiana seeds. The time to germination onset, seed germination percentage after 312 h and mean germination rate are best described by a Gaussian distribution, with its optimum at approximately 25°C. Thus, optimum temperatures are related to the ecological characteristics of each species area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]