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Abstract Background Wheat is an important food crop globally, and timely prediction of wheat yield in breeding efforts can improve selection efficiency. Traditional yield prediction method based on secondary traits is time-consuming, costly, and destructive. It is urgent to develop innovative methods to improve selection efficiency and accelerate genetic gains in the breeding cycle. Results Crop yield prediction using remote sensing has gained popularity in recent years. This paper proposed a novel ensemble feature selection (EFS) method to improve yield prediction from hyperspectral data. For this, 207 wheat cultivars and breeding lines were grown under full and limited irrigation treatments respectively, and their canopy hyperspectral reflectance was measured at the flowering, early grain filling (EGF), mid grain filling (MGF), and late grain filling (LGF) stages. Then, 115 vegetation indices were extracted from the hyperspectral reflectance and combined with four feature selection methods, i.e., mean decrease impurity (MDI), Boruta, FeaLect, and RReliefF to train deep neural network (DNN) models for yield prediction. Next, a learning framework was developed by combining the predicted values of the selected and the full features using multiple linear regression (MLR). The results show that the selected features contributed to higher yield prediction accuracy than the full features, and the MDI method performed well across growth stages, with a mean R 2 ranging from 0.634 to 0.666 (mean RMSE = 0.926–0.967 t ha−1). Also, the proposed EFS method outperformed all the individual feature selection methods across growth stages, with a mean R 2 ranging from 0.648 to 0.679 (mean RMSE = 0.911–0.950 t ha−1). Conclusions The proposed EFS method can improve grain yield prediction from hyperspectral data and can be used to assist wheat breeders in earlier decision-making.

Abstract Background Plant height is an important selection target since it is associated with yield potential, stability and particularly with lodging resistance in various environments. Rapid and cost-effective estimation of plant height from airborne devices using a digital surface model can be integrated with academic research and practical wheat breeding programs. A bi-parental wheat population consisting of 198 doubled haploid lines was used for time-series assessments of progress in reaching final plant height and its accuracy was assessed by quantitative genomic analysis. UAV-based data were collected at the booting and mid-grain fill stages from two experimental sites and compared with conventional measurements to identify quantitative trait loci (QTL) underlying plant height. Results A significantly high correlation of R 2 = 0.96 with a 5.75 cm root mean square error was obtained between UAV-based plant height estimates and ground truth observations at mid-grain fill across both sites. Correlations for UAV and ground-based plant height data were also very high (R 2 = 0.84–0.85, and 0.80–0.83) between plant height at the booting and mid-grain fill stages, respectively. Broad sense heritabilities were 0.92 at booting and 0.90–0.91 at mid-grain fill across sites for both data sets. Two major QTL corresponding to Rht-B1 on chromosome 4B and Rht-D1 on chromosome 4D explained 61.3% and 64.5% of the total phenotypic variations for UAV and ground truth data, respectively. Two new and stable QTL on chromosome 6D seemingly associated with accelerated plant growth was identified at the booting stage using UAV-based data. Genomic prediction accuracy for UAV and ground-based data sets was significantly high, ranging from r = 0.47–0.55 using genome-wide and QTL markers for plant height. However, prediction accuracy declined to r = 0.20–0.31 after excluding markers linked to plant height QTL. Conclusion This study provides a fast way to obtain time-series estimates of plant height in understanding growth dynamics in bread wheat. UAV-enabled phenotyping is an effective, high-throughput and cost-effective approach to understand the genetic basis of plant height in genetic studies and practical breeding.