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Context: Given the dramatic rise in the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in recent decades, identifying individuals at increased risk of T2DM and validating methods to reduce their risk of disease progression is important. With more than one-third of US adults having prediabetes, a more precise stratification of absolute risk of T2DM incidence would help in prioritizing prevention efforts. Objective: To develop a simple and clinically useful schema to stratify short-term (2-year) absolute risk of T2DM. Design: Observational study of more than 77,000 adult members (age 18-75 years) from 3 Regions of the Kaiser Foundation Health Plan with prediabetes (hemoglobin A1C [HbA1C] = 5.7%-6.4%). Main Outcome Measures: The 2-year probability for development of diabetes as a function of baseline HbA1C and body mass index (BMI). Results: The 2-year risk of diabetes diagnosis varied widely by HbA1C and BMI. A small subset (5.2%) had a very high risk of T2DM developing within 2 years. Another 13.3% had a moderate 2-year risk of T2DM, whereas most (81.5%) of the population was at much lower risk. Thus, most Kaiser Foundation Health Plan members with prediabetes have only modest risk of progression to T2DM within 2 years. Conclusion: Using HbA1C and BMI, we created a simple stratification scheme to more precisely estimate risk of T2DM incidence. This will enable more efficient assignment of prevention interventions and clinical and laboratory follow-up to the small subset at highest risk, while minimizing the potentially negative effects of overdiagnosis among the majority with prediabetes who are not at high short-term risk of T2DM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: The Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) has been translated into digital formats. We report an economic evaluation of a digital DPP implemented in a large, integrated health care system. METHODS: Patients (n = 4148) were invited to participate in digital DPP based on clinical characteristics (HbA1c 5.7%-6.4% and body mass index = 30 kg/m2) assessed using electronic medical record data. Using a propensity score we matched (1:1) enrolled and not enrolled patients for a total of 784. We identified high-risk patients (ie, above the 50th percentile of risk; n = 202) by calculating each patient's 2-year of developing diabetes. We report the cost of the intervention and the costs of medical care over 12- and 24-month follow-up, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio as the cost per additional kilogram weight loss at 24 months. RESULTS: At 12 months, enrolled patients had lower total costs ($6,926, 95% CI $5,681-$8,171) than not enrolled patients ($7,538, 95% CI $6,293-$8,783). This pattern attenuated slightly at 24 months (enrolled = $16,255, 95% CI $14,097-$18,412; not enrolled = $16,688, 95% CI $14,531-$18,846). We found an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $81.92 per additional kilogram weight loss. For high-risk patients, the digital DPP group had, on average, lower costs and greater weight loss. We found a 55% chance of the digital DPP program being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay of $150 per additional kilogram of weight loss; at the same willingness-to-pay, there is a 60% chance in the high-risk subgroup. Limitations include the nonrandomized design and potential volunteer bias. CONCLUSION: Digital DPP had a favorable cost-effectiveness profile compared to other lifestyle interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]