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This study describes clinical manifestations of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1, H5N8 and H5N6 outbreaks between 2014 and 2018 and 2020 and 2022 in the Netherlands for different poultry types and age groups. Adult duck (breeder) farms and juvenile chicken (broiler and laying pullet) farms were not diagnosed before 2020. Outbreaks in ducks decreased in 2020–2022 vs. 2014–2018, but increased for meat-type poultry. Neurological, locomotor and reproductive tract signs were often observed in ducks, whereas laying- and meat-type poultry more often showed mucosal membrane and skin signs, including cyanosis and hemorrhagic conjunctiva. Juveniles (chickens and ducks) showed neurological and locomotor signs more often than adults. Diarrhea occurred more often in adult chickens and juvenile ducks. Mortality increased exponentially within four days before notification in chickens and ducks, with a more fluctuating trend in ducks and meat-type poultry than in layers. For ducks, a mortality ratio (MR) > 3, compared to the average mortality of the previous week, was reached less often than in chickens. A lower percentage of laying flocks with MR > 3 was found for 2020–2022 vs. 2014–2018, but without significant differences in clinical signs. This study provides a basis for improvements in mortality- and clinical-sign-based early warning criteria, especially for juvenile chickens and ducks.

Wind-supported transport of particle matter (PM) contaminated with excreta from highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv)-infected wild birds may be a HPAIv-introduction pathway, which may explain infections in indoor-housed poultry. The primary objective of our study was therefore to measure the nature and quantity of PM entering poultry houses via air-inlets. The air-inlets of two recently HPAIv-infected poultry farms (a broiler farm and a layer farm) were equipped with mosquito-net collection bags. PM was harvested every 5 days for 25 days. Video-camera monitoring registered wild bird visits. PM was tested for avian influenza viruses (AIV), Campylobacter and Salmonella with PCR. Insects, predominantly mosquitoes, were tested for AIV, West Nile, Usutu and Schmallenberg virus. A considerable number of mosquitoes and small PM amounts entered the air-inlets, mostly cobweb and plant material, but no wild bird feathers. Substantial variation in PM entering between air-inlets existed. In stormy periods, significantly larger PM amounts may enter wind-directed air-inlets. PM samples were AIV and Salmonella negative and insect samples were negative for all viruses and bacteria, but several broiler and layer farm PM samples tested Campylobacter positive. Regular wild (water) bird visits were observed near to the poultry houses. Air-borne PM and insects—potentially contaminated with HPAIv or other pathogens—can enter poultry air-inlets. Implementation of measures limiting this potential introduction route are recommended.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses’ (HPAIVs) transmission from wild birds to poultry occurs globally, threatening animal and public health. To predict the HPAI outbreak risk in relation to wild bird densities and land cover variables, we performed a case-control study of 26 HPAI outbreaks (cases) on Dutch poultry farms, each matched with four comparable controls. We trained machine learning classifiers to predict outbreak risk with predictors analyzed at different spatial scales. Of the 20 best explaining predictors, 17 consisted of densities of water-associated bird species, 2 of birds of prey, and 1 represented the surrounding landscape, i.e., agricultural cover. The spatial distribution of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) contributed most to risk prediction, followed by mute swan (Cygnus olor), common kestrel (Falco tinnunculus) and brant goose (Branta bernicla). The model successfully distinguished cases from controls, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92, indicating accurate prediction of HPAI outbreak risk despite the limited numbers of cases. Different classification algorithms led to similar predictions, demonstrating robustness of the risk maps. These analyses and risk maps facilitate insights into the role of wild bird species and support prioritization of areas for surveillance, biosecurity measures and establishments of new poultry farms to reduce HPAI outbreak risks.