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Severe adverse events (SAEs) following ivermectin treatment may occur in people harbouring high Loa loa microfilarial (mf) densities. In the context of mass ivermectin distribution for onchocerciasis control in Africa, it is crucial to define precisely the geographical distribution of L. loa in relation to that of Onchocerca volvulus and predict the prevalence of heavy infections. To this end, we analysed the distribution of mf loads in 4183 individuals living in 36 villages of central Cameroon. Mf loads were assessed quantitatively by calibrated blood smears, collected prior to ivermectin distribution. We explored the pattern of L. loa mf aggregation by fitting the (zero-truncated) negative binomial distribution and estimating its overdispersion parameter k by maximum likelihood. The value of k varied around 0.3 independently of mf intensity, host age, village and endemicity level. Based on these results, we developed a semi-empirical model to predict the prevalence of heavy L. loa mf loads in a community given its overall mf prevalence. If validated at the continental scale and linked to predictive spatial models of loiasis distribution, this approach would be particularly useful for optimizing the identification of areas at risk of SAEs and providing estimates of populations at risk in localities where L. loa and O. volvulus are co-endemic.

Ivermectin treatment may induce severe adverse reactions in some individuals heavily infected with Loa loa. This hampers the implementation of mass ivermectin treatment against onchocerciasis in areas where Onchocerca volvulus and L. loa are co-endemic. In order to identify factors, including co-infections, which may explain the presence of high L. loa microfilaraemia in some individuals, we analysed data collected in 19 villages of central Cameroon. Two standardized skin snips and 30 mul of blood were obtained from each of 3190 participants and the microfilarial (mf) loads of both O. volvulus and L. loa were quantified. The data were analysed using multivariate hierarchical models. Individual-level variables were: age, sex, mf presence, and mf load; village-related variables included the endemicity levels for each infection. The two species show a certain degree of ecological separation in the study area. However, for a given individual host, the presence of microfilariae of one species was positively associated with the presence of microfilariae of the other (OR=1.79, 95% CI [1.43-2.24]). Among individuals harbouring Loa microfilariae, there was a slight positive relationship between the L. loa and O. volvulus mf loads which corresponded to an 11% increase in L. loa mf load per 100 O. volvulus microfilariae. Co-infection with O. volvulus is not sufficient to explain the very high L. loa mf loads harboured by some individuals.