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Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The present study investigates the spatially dynamic income process among 228 regions of the extended European Union 25 on the basis of the augmented Solow model. In particular spatial autocorrelation effects are taken into account. Although a lot of empirical work has been done recently on the convergence process in EU, the importance of pure spatial interactions is still largely underestimated. In this paper a spatially dynamic approach is considered to describe the driving forces present in the economic system rather than the actual movements through time. The spatial error-correction and other related models are presented and used to explain the process of regional convergence observed at the level of the EU25 NUTS 2 regions in 2004. Resumen. Este estudio investiga el proceso espacialmente dinámico de renta entre 228 regiones de la Unión Europea de los 25 en base al modelo de Solow aumentado. En particular se toman en cuenta los efectos de autocorrelación espacial. Aunque recientemente se ha realizado mucho trabajo empírico sobre el proceso de convergencia en la UE, la importancia de las interacciones espaciales puras está aun subestimada en gran parte. En este artículo se considera un enfoque espacialmente dinámico para describir las fuerzas impulsoras presentes en el sistema económico en vez de los movimientos en el tiempo. La corrección de error espacial y otros modelos relacionados se muestran y utilizan para explicar el proceso de convergencia regional observado para las regiones NUTS2 de la UE (25) en el 2004. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a balanced dataset extracted from the European Community Household Panel data survey for 94 regions over the period 1995–2000 to examine the relationship between income and educational inequalities in the regions of the European Union. It highlights the importance of geography and institutions in accounting for the economic performance of the European regions. The regression results suggest a positive relationship between income and educational inequalities, which have evolved differently across welfare regimes. Using different designs of spatial weights matrices which concern not only distance, but also the welfare regime, this paper shows that both spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity matter for inequalities. Resumen. Este artículo utiliza datos equilibrados extraídos de la encuesta del Panel de Hogares de la Unión Europea (PHOGUE) para 94 regiones durante el periodo 1995–2000 para examinar la relación entre la renta y las desigualdades educativas en las regiones de la Unión Europea. Resalta la importancia de la geografía y las instituciones para explicar el rendimiento económico de las regiones europeas. Los resultados de la regresión sugieren una relación positiva entre la renta y las desigualdades educativas, las cuales han evolucionado de manera distinta bajo regímenes diferentes de asistencia social. Mediante la utilización de diseños diferentes de matrices ponderadas espaciales relacionadas no solo con la distancia sino también con el régimen de asistencia social, este artículo muestra que tanto la autocorrelación espacial como la heterogeneidad espacial influyen en las desigualdades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the differences in the levels of accessibility to public employment offices in the Spanish municipalities. Hence the main purpose is to evaluate the role of the public employment services in local labour markets by considering the physical distance to employment offices and the spatial structure of their catchment areas. First, we propose an accessibility measure and, second, we estimate a spatial model and test whether a higher accessibility to employment offices could contribute to reduce local unemployment rates. The results suggest that policy-makers should strive to improve the accessibility to employment offices so that adequate assistance to find suitable employment may be ensured to every jobseeker. Resumen Este artículo se centra en las diferencias en los niveles de accesibilidad a las oficinas públicas de empleo en los municipios españoles. El objetivo principal es por tanto evaluar el papel de los servicios públicos de empleo en los mercados laborales locales, en función de la distancia física a las oficinas de empleo y la estructura espacial de sus zonas de influencia. Primero, se propone una medida de accesibilidad y, a continuación, se estima un modelo espacial y se comprueba si una mayor accesibilidad a las oficinas de empleo podría contribuir a reducir las tasas de desempleo local. Los resultados sugieren que los responsables de formular políticas deberían esforzarse por mejorar la accesibilidad a las oficinas de empleo, a fin de poder asegurar a cada demandante de empleo la ayuda apropiada para que logre encontrar un empleo adecuado. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it extends the spatial Durbin model to panel data allowing for non-spherical disturbances and proposes two alternative estimators based on ML techniques. While one of the estimators exhibits more degrees of freedom, the other is computationally less burdensome. Results from a Monte Carlo study reveal that both estimators have satisfactory small sample properties also in cases when the error structure is in effect spherical. Second, the paper demonstrates that conventional testing procedures may wrongly reject the existence of spatial externalities. In particular, it shows that the incidence of a type II error increases as the spatial weight matrix becomes denser. Este artículo tiene un doble objetivo. Primero, amplia el modelo espacial de Durbin a datos de panel, permitiendo perturbaciones no esféricas y propone dos estimadores alternativos basados en técnicas de aprendizaje automático (ML). Mientras que uno de los estimadores exhibe un mayor número de grados de libertad, el otro es menos problemático en cuanto a su cómputo. Los resultados de un estudio de Monte Carlo mostraron que ambos estimadores poseen propiedades satisfactorias en cuanto a pequeños muestreos, incluso en casos en los que la estructura del error es de hecho esférica. Segundo, el artículo demuestra que los procedimientos convencionales de ensayo podrían rechazar erróneamente la existencia de externalidades espaciales. En particular, se muestra que la incidencia en un error de tipo II aumenta a medida que la matriz ponderada espacial se vuelve más densa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we develop an econometric analysis of the intra- and interregional trade flows of the accommodation, restaurant industry, and travel agency sectors in Spain by means of several specifications of the gravity model and three alternative databases containing the monetary flows for 2001 and 2007. The results obtained show the existence of an important border effect in favour of the intraregional trade of tourism, and verify a minor elasticity of the trade flows in some characteristic tourism sectors in relation to distance. Finally, the two main typologies of flows - tourist establishments and second homes - are modelled separately, identifying specific factors for explaining each category. En este artículo desarrollamos un análisis econométrico de los flujos comerciales intra e interregionales de los sectores hotelero, restauración y agencias de viajes en España, mediante varias especificaciones del modelo de gravedad y tres bases de datos alternativas que incluyen los flujos monetarios en 2001 y 2007. Los resultados obtenidos muestran la existencia de un importante efecto frontera favorable al comercio intrarregional de turismo y corroboran una elasticidad menor de los flujos comerciales en ciertos sectores de turismo característicos en relación a la distancia. Finalmente, se modeliza por separado las dos tipologías principales de flujos - establecimientos turísticos y segundas residencias, mediante la identificación de factores específicos para cada categoría. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper discusses estimation methods for models including an endogenous spatial lag, additional endogenous variables due to system feedback and an autoregressive or a moving average error process. It extends Kelejian and Prucha's, and Fingleton and Le Gallo's feasible generalized spatial two-stage least squares estimators and also considers HAC estimation in a spatial framework as suggested by Kelejian and Prucha. An empirical example using real estate data illustrating the different estimators is proposed. The finite sample properties of the estimators are finally investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Resumen. Este artículo discute métodos de estimación para modelos incluyendo un intervalo espacial endógeno, variables endógenas adicionales debido a retroalimentación del sistema y un proceso autorregresivo o uno de error de media móvil. Amplia Kelejian y Prucha's, y los estimadores de mínimos cuadrados bietápicos espaciales generalizados factibles de Fingleton y Le Gallo y considera también la estimación HAC en un marco espacial tal y como sugieren Kelejian y Prucha. Proponemos un ejemplo empírico utilizando datos de bienes inmuebles ilustrando los diferentes estimadores. Las propiedades en muestras finitas de los estimadores se estudian finalmente mediante simulación de Monte Carlo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to assess to what extent deterioration of Italy's trade competitiveness in manufacturing over the decade 1993–2004 has been determined by the evolution of localised comparative advantages in knowledge based industries. Stressing Kaldor's idea of dynamic increasing returns in manufacturing industries, we adopted a spatial econometric approach in order to account for the role of geographical proximity in facilitating the exchange of knowledge flows. We estimated a canonical regional export demand function for the 103 NUTS 3 explicitly introducing specialization in high-tech goods. Export competitiveness is shown to be deeply rooted at the local level with the role of knowledge-based competitiveness declining in the centre and north and world demand remaining the only engine of export growth in the south. Resumen. Este artículo se centra en evaluar hasta que punto el deterioro de la competitividad comercial italiana en productos manufacturados en la década 1993–2004 ha estado determinado por la evolución de ventajas comparativas locales en industrias basadas en conocimiento. Con un énfasis en la idea de Kaldor de rendimientos crecientes dinámicos en industrias manufactureras, adoptamos un enfoque econométrico espacial para tomar en cuenta el papel de la proximidad geográfica en facilitar el intercambio de flujos de conocimiento. Estimamos una función de demanda de exportación regional canónica para las 103 NUTS 3, introduciendo explícitamente una especialización en productos de alta tecnología. Se muestra que la competitividad en la exportación está profundamente enraizada a nivel local con el papel de la competitividad basada en conocimiento disminuyendo en el centro y el norte y siendo la demanda mundial el único motor que queda de crecimiento de la exportación en el sur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies Verdoorn's and Okun's law to derive efficient estimates of the employment and unemployment threshold in the Unified Germany. The analysis is built on a disaggregated dataset of regional labour markets, where spatial dependencies are taken into account. Especially, a spatial SUR model is proposed utilising the eigenfunction decomposition approach suggested by Griffith (1996, 2000 ). The thresholds turn out to be unstable over time. However, minimum output growth sufficient for a rise in employment is below the level needed for a drop in the unemployment rate. If spatial effects are ignored, the thresholds seem to be markedly overrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper estimates the matching of job seekers and vacant jobs in Norwegian regional labour markets. The main goal of the study is to analyse whether differing settlement patterns across regions can explain the ability of regional labour markets to form new matches. The basic matching function is extended to account for spatial spillovers between regions. The paper finds that matching efficiency in regions with low average population density, but with few dense, urban settlements, is as high as in urbanized high-density areas. It is therefore important to take into account both population density and dispersion of population within a region when analysing matching in regional labour markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale transportation projects such as the construction of a commuter railway accessible to metropolises have a significant regional impact. This study attempts to measure this impact using spatial statistical models and land price data. First, dynamic changes in the land price are analysed and the so-called announcement effect is presented using the spatial interpolation techniques. Second, various types of land price models are constructed by employing the existing methods of spatial econometrics and geostatistics; their estimates and project benefits are compared and discussed, particularly from the viewpoint of policy implications. Resumen. Los proyectos de transporte de gran escala tales como la construcción de un tren suburbano de acceso a una metrópolis tienen un impacto regional significativo. Este estudio intenta medir este impacto utilizando modelos estadísticos espaciales y datos del precio del suelo. Primero, se analizan cambios dinámicos en el precio del suelo y se presenta el llamado efecto de anuncio utilizando técnicas de interpolación espacial. Segundo, se construyen varios tipos de modelos de precio del suelo mediante el empleo de métodos existentes de econometría espacial y geoestadística; se comparan y discuten sus estimaciones y los beneficios del proyecto, en particular desde el punto de vista de sus implicaciones políticas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article we test for dynamic inter- and intra-industry externalities on the urban level in the Netherlands. We argue that previous contributions might be sensitive to untested spatial and sectoral composition effects of urban data. We conclude that research results are better controlled when analysed on lower spatial scales, that results improve in robustness when spatial dependence in the form of spatially lagged versions of explained (growth) variables is introduced in the econometric models, and that results are more informative when hierarchical urban regimes are tested for. Introducing spatially lagged versions of explanatory agglomeration variables is informative but leads to less robust outcomes. In general our research results are more conclusive on inter-industry externalities circumstances when outcomes of city-industry as well as sectoral research designs are compared with the same dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the impact of industrial agglomeration on firm-level productivity in Chinese manufacturing sectors. To account for spatial autocorrelation across regions, we formulate a hierarchical spatial model and use a Bayesian instrumental-variable approach. We find that agglomeration of the same industry (i.e., localization) has a productivity-boosting effect, but agglomeration of urban population (i.e., urbanization) has no such effect. In addition, the localization effect increases with the educational levels of employees and the share of intermediate inputs in gross output. These results may suggest that agglomeration externalities occur through knowledge spillovers and input sharing among firms producing similar manufactures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, spatial shift-share decomposition is analysed when applied to Italian data on regional business change at plant level, over the period 2004-2009. A new type of spatial decomposition, which looks more effectively at neighbourhood influence, is introduced here. Notable results emerge from the empirical investigation. First, it can be seen that the spatial level of aggregation greatly affects results. Second, evidence of neighbourhood advantage in the Southern NUTS 3 regions is found, together with opposite results for the Central- Northern NUTS 3 regions. Finally, evidence of positive industrial mix effects is only found in Central- Northern Italy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Studies on governance generally ignore spatial dependence among the observations. Employing spatial econometric methods, we find that governance in one country exhibits a positive relationship with governance in neighbouring countries. Consequently, a change in a single explanatory variable in a particular country not only affects the level of governance in that country itself, but also in neighbouring countries. Using maximum likelihood function values and Bayesian posterior model probabilities, we also find that the spatial arrangement of the countries in the sample is best described by a spatial weights matrix based on the 10 nearest neighbours of every country in the sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the viability of using proportional hazard models to study spatial point patterns generated by urbanisation. The analysis demonstrates that the ‘spatial hazard’ framework is not only viable for studying urban form, but is extremely promising: the models do an excellent job of characterizing very different patterns of development, and they lend themselves directly to the kind of probative analysis needed to guide urban and regional policy. Compared to more traditional approaches to characterizing urban form – namely, density gradients – hazard models rest on a probabilistic worldview, and, so, they portray the built environment as a froth of stochastic transitions through which urban form unfolds in an irregular fashion until it at last comes undone. Several general conclusions and directions for future research follow from these findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to advance in the discussion of the topic of heterogeneity in a spatial econometric model. The proposal is not a novelty as there is a great deal of experience accumulated on the same subject. What differentiates this work is that we use a broad notion of the term heterogeneity, in association with different symptoms of stability in the elements of the equation. That is, we deal with problems ( i) in the coefficients of regression, ( ii) in the variance of the random term and ( iii) in the mechanisms of spatial dependence. With this purpose, we develop several tests through which we tackle the problem of heterogeneity from various perspectives. We assess their performance through a Monte Carlo experiment. Resumen El objetivo de este artículo es avanzar en la discusión sobre el tema de la heterogeneidad existente en un modelo econométrico espacial. La propuesta no es novedosa por cuanto ya existe mucha experiencia acumulada sobre el mismo tema. Lo que distingue a este trabajo es que utilizamos una lectura amplia del término heterogeneidad, asociado a diversos síntomas de estabilidad en los elementos de la ecuación. Esto es, tratamos con problemas ( i) en los coeficientes de regresión, ( ii) en la varianza del término aleatorio y ( iii) en los mecanismos de dependencia espacial. Con este propósito, desarrollamos varias pruebas mediante las cuales abordamos el problema de la heterogeneidad desde perspectivas diferentes. Evaluamos su rendimiento mediante un experimento de Monte Carlo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the causes of variation in regional labour force participation rates in a cross-country perspective. A microeconomic framework of the labour force participation decision is aggregated across individuals to obtain an explanatory model of regional participation rates in which both regional-level and national-level variables serve as explanatory variables. An appropriate econometric model of random coefficients for the regional variables and fixed coefficients for the national variables is developed, further taking into account that observations may be correlated over time and in space and that some of the explanatory variables are not strictly exogenous. This model is estimated for men and for women, using annual 1983–1997 Eurostat data from 157 regions across 13 EU countries. The hypotheses that regional participation rates in the EU are determined by a common structure and that labour force participation can be encouraged by a common policy must be strongly rejected. Este estudio investiga las causas de variación en las tasas regionales de participación de fuerza laboral bajo la perspectiva de diferentes países. Se ha agregado para varios individuos un marco microeconómico de la decisión de participación de fuerza laboral para obtener un modelo explicativo de las tasas de participación regional en las que variables a nivel regional y nacional sirven como variables explicativas. Se desarrolla un modelo econométrico apropiado de coeficientes aleatorios para las variables regionales y de coeficientes fijos para las variables nacionales, teniendo en cuenta posteriormente que las observaciones podrían estar correlacionadas con el tiempo y en el espacio y que algunas de las variables explicativas no son estrictamente exógenas. Este modelo se ha estimado para hombres y mujeres, usando datos anuales de Eurostat de 1983–1997 para 157 regiones en 13 países de la UE. Las hipótesis de que las tasas de participación regional en la UE están determinadas por una estructura común y que la participación de la fuerza laboral puede fomentarse mediante una política común deben rechazarse fuertemente. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article attempts to develop a set of loglinear models that synthesise gravity models of interregional mobility and loglinear models of occupational mobility. The development of the model is progressed from a simple two-way mobility table analysis to a three-way analysis that controls for one aspect of mobility while investigating another and eventually to a four-way analysis that simultaneously assesses the joint effect of occupational and geographic mobility. An example based on data from the 1970 United States census demonstrates that the models can effectively capture the joint effect of occupational and geographic mobility. The results show that interregional movers may not necessarily have strong occupational persistence. With regard to female dominated clerical occupations, interregional migration is positively associated with upward occupational mobility, and the propensity for upward mobility was consistently greater for males than for females. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Papers in Regional Science is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Significant and persistent differences in regional productivity exist across most countries and are the subject of academic and policy concern. We use plant-level data to examine the determinants of regional productivity differentials across regions of England and demonstrate that substantial differences in regional productivity can be explained by a fairly limited set of variables, including industry mix, capital stock, ownership and skills. Location-specific factors of travel time and population density are also identified as being important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this note, we investigate the finite-sample properties of Moran's I test statistic for spatial autocorrelation in tobit models suggested by Kelejian and Prucha. We fill a void in the theoretical literature by investigating the finite sample properties of this test statistic in a series of Monte Carlo simulations, using data sets ranging from 49 to 15,625 observations. We find that the test is unbiased, has considerable power and approximates the asymptotic normal distribution even for medium-sized sample sizes, empirically confirming the theoretical results of Kelejian and Prucha. However, some caution is needed, since the statistic turns out to be sensitive to misspecification in the form of heteroscedasticity. In such instances the test over-rejects the null hypothesis, mistaking heteroscedasticity for spatial autocorrelation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A statistical test procedure is proposed to check a polynomial relationship of the non-parametric component in partially linear spatial autoregressive models, in which a residual-based bootstrap procedure is used to derive the p-value of the test. Some simulations are conducted to assess the performance of the test and the results show that the bootstrap approximation to the null distribution of the test statistic is valid and the test is powerful in identifying a polynomial relationship of the non-parametric component. Furthermore, a real-world example is given to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent theoretical research deals with economic costs and benefits of cultural diversity related to immigration. However, empirical evidence regarding the impact of cultural diversity on economic performance is still scarce. We analyse the effect of cultural diversity of the labour force on patent applications for a cross-section of German regions. The results suggest that differences in knowledge and capabilities of workers from diverse cultural backgrounds enhance performance of regional R&D sectors. As regards innovation, the benefits of diversity seem to outweigh the costs caused, for example, by communication barriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of land development in urban area has been of great interest to policy-makers and planners. Due to the complexity of the land development process, no existing studies are considered sophisticated enough. This research uses the dynamic spatial ordered probit (DSOP) model to analyse Austin's land use intensity patterns over a 4-point panel. The observational units are 300 m × 300 m grid cells derived from satellite images. The sample contains 2,771 such grid cells, spread among 57 zip code regions. The marginal effects of control variables suggest that increases in travel times to central business district (CBD) substantially reduce land development intensity. More important, temporal and spatial autocorrelation effects are significantly positive, showing the superiority of the DSOP model. The derived parameters are used to predict future land development patterns, along with associated uncertainty in each grid cell's prediction. Resumen La evolución del desarrollo del suelo en áreas urbanas ha sido de gran interés para formuladores de políticas y urbanistas. Debido a la complejidad del proceso de desarrollo urbano, se considera que los estudios existentes no son lo suficientemente sofisticados. Este estudio utiliza el modelo probit ordenado espacial dinámico (DSOP, por sus siglas en inglés) para analizar los patrones de intensidad de uso del suelo sobre un panel de 4 puntos. Las unidades de estudio son celdas en una malla de 300m x 300 m a partir de imágenes de satélite. La muestra contiene 2,771 de estas celdas, distribuidas entre 57 regiones de códigos postales. Los efectos marginales de las variables de control sugieren que los incrementos en la duración de los desplazamientos al distrito central de negocios (CBD, por sus siglas en inglés) reducen sustancialmente la intensidad del desarrollo urbano del suelo. Con mayor importancia, los efectos de autocorrelación temporal y espacial son significativamente positivos, mostrando la superioridad del modelo DSOP. Los parámetros derivados son utilizados para predecir patrones futuros de desarrollo urbano del suelo, junto con la incertidumbre asociada a la predicción para cada celda de la malla. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]