1. Economic shocks and growth: Spatio-temporal perspectives on Europe's economies in a time of crisis.
- Author
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Doran, Justin and Fingleton, Bernard
- Subjects
- *
ECONOMIC shock , *ECONOMIC development , *SPATIO-temporal variation , *VECTOR error-correction models , *VERDOORN law , *ECONOMETRIC models - Abstract
The response by regional and national economies to exogenous impulses has a well-established literature in both spatial econometrics and in mainstream econometrics and is of considerable importance given the post-2007 economic crisis, which is characterized by a period of severe global instability resulting from unprecedented economic shocks. This paper focuses on dynamic counterfactual predictions and impulse-response functions derived from appropriate econometric models. These provide insight regarding the question of whether responses to economic shocks are transitory or whether they have a permanent effect. Analysis shows that output shocks have had permanent effects on productivity so that economies have tended not to return to the pre-shock path but rather adjust to new levels. This suggests that the current recession will be embodied permanently within the memory of some of Europe's leading economies as a hysteretic effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014
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