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Objective: Develop a risk index to estimate the likelihood of life-threatening respiratory depression or overdose among medical users of prescription opioids., Subjects, Design, and Methods: A case-control analysis of administrative health care data from the Veterans' Health Administration identified 1,877,841 patients with a pharmacy record for an opioid prescription between October 1, 2010 and September 30, 2012. Overdose or serious opioid-induced respiratory depression (OSORD) occurred in 817. Ten controls were selected per case (n = 8,170). Items for an OSORD risk index (RIOSORD) were selected through logistic regression modeling, with point values assigned to each predictor. Modeling of risk index scores produced predicted probabilities of OSORD; risk classes were defined by the predicted probability distribution., Results: Fifteen variables most highly associated with OSORD were retained as items, including mental health disorders and pharmacotherapy; impaired drug metabolism or excretion; pulmonary disorders; specific opioid characteristics; and recent hospital visits. The average predicted probability of experiencing OSORD ranged from 3% in the lowest risk decile to 94% in the highest, with excellent agreement between predicted and observed incidence across risk classes. The model's C-statistic was 0.88 and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic 10.8 (P > 0.05)., Conclusion: RIOSORD performed well in identifying medical users of prescription opioids within the Veterans' Health Administration at elevated risk of overdose or life-threatening respiratory depression, those most likely to benefit from preventive interventions. This novel, clinically practical, risk index is intended to provide clinical decision support for safer pain management. It should be assessed, and refined as necessary, in a more generalizable population, and prospectively evaluated., (© 2015 The Authors Pain Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Academy of Pain Medicine.)

Objective: Prescription opioid use and deaths related to serious toxicity, including overdose, have increased dramatically in the United States since 1999. However, factors associated with serious opioid-related respiratory or central nervous system (CNS) depression or overdose in medical users are not well characterized. The objective of this study was to examine the factors associated with serious toxicity in medical users of prescription opioids., Design: Retrospective, nested, case-control analysis of Veterans Health Administration (VHA) medical, pharmacy, and health care resource utilization administrative data., Subjects: Patients dispensed an opioid by VHA between October 1, 2010 and September 30, 2012 (N=8,987)., Methods: Cases (N=817) experienced life-threatening opioid-related respiratory/CNS depression or overdose. Ten controls were randomly assigned to each case (N=8,170). Logistic regression was used to examine associations with the outcome., Results: The strongest associations were maximum prescribed daily morphine equivalent dose (MED)≥ 100 mg (odds ratio [OR]=4.1, 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6-6.5), history of opioid dependence (OR=3.9, 95% CI, 2.6-5.8), and hospitalization during the 6 months before the serious toxicity or overdose event (OR=2.9, 95% CI, 2.3-3.6). Liver disease, extended-release or long-acting opioids, and daily MED of 20 mg or more were also significantly associated., Conclusions: Substantial risk for serious opioid-related toxicity and overdose exists at even relatively low maximum prescribed daily MED, especially in patients already vulnerable due to underlying demographic factors, comorbid conditions, and concomitant use of CNS depressant medications or substances. Screening patients for risk, providing education, and coprescribing naloxone for those at elevated risk may be effective at reducing serious opioid-related respiratory/CNS depression and overdose in medical users of prescription opioids., (Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)