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An introduction is presented in which the editor discusses various articles within the issue on topics including the role of tourism towards China's economic growth; liberalization of Chinese financial markets; and papers Contemporary monetary policy in China: An empirical assesment'.

Abstract: We review previous research on China's business cycle correlation with other economies applying meta‐analysis. We survey 71 papers analysing the different periods of Chinese economic development since the 1950s that were published in English or Chinese. We confirm that Pacific Rim economies in particular have relatively high business cycle correlation with China. It appears that many characteristics of the studies and authors influence the reported degree of business cycle synchronization. For instance, Chinese‐language papers report higher correlation coefficients. Despite this, we do not detect robust evidence for publication bias in the papers. Moreover, we show that the broad evidence does not confirm the popular decoupling hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically analyses the effect of trade competitiveness and complementarity on the trade development between China and the countries along the Belt and Road (B&R). The study first measures the trade competitiveness and the complementarity between China and the countries along the B&R by using the trade competitiveness coefficient (TCC) and the trade complementarity index (TCI). Then a spatial gravity model is constructed to analyse the effect of trade competitiveness and complementarity on trade development between China and the countries along the B&R. We use generalized method of moments (GMM) and spatial filtering technology to verify the robustness of the model. The results show that the GDP of China and the countries along the B&R, the land area of countries along the B&R, trade complementarity, common language, free trade agreements (FTA), and the B&R Initiative significantly promote the trade development between China and the countries along the B&R, whereas the geographical distance between countries and trade competitiveness significantly inhibit it. Finally, to promote the trade development between China and the countries along the B&R, the present paper puts forward suggestions including improving trade promotion policies between China and the countries along the B&R and vigorously expanding cooperation with complementary industries in the countries along the B&R to enhance trade dependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast China can grow over the medium term is an important one. Using a Cobb–Douglas production function, we decompose the growth of trend GDP into those of the capital stock, labour, human capital and total factor productivity (TFP) and then forecast trend output growth out to 2030 using a bottom‐up approach based on forecasts that we build for each one of these factors. Our paper distinguishes itself from existing work in that we construct a forecast of Chinese TFP growth based on the aggregation of forecasts of its key determinants. In addition, our analysis is based on a carefully constructed estimate of the Chinese productive capital stock and a measure of human capital (based on Chinese wage survey data) that better reflects the returns to education in China. Our results suggest that Chinese GDP growth will slow from around 7% currently to approximately 5% by 2030, consistent with a gradual rebalancing of the Chinese economy characterized by a decline in the investment rate. Moreover, our findings underscore the growing importance of TFP growth as a driver of Chinese growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper simulates the effects of China's growing government debt in a computable equilibrium model of overlapping generations. Our model assumes that the government increases debt to finance its spending in the short run, and then increases taxes or cuts spending to keep the debt–GDP ratio constant. The spending‐driven government debt increases public capital and output in the short run, but decreases private investment, total capital stock, output, and net exports in the long run, and makes the future generations worse off. Among various means of debt control, a decrease in government spending seems to be the least harmful to private investment, capital stock, and output while an increase in capital taxation is most detrimental. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an overview of Chinese financial and trade integration in recent decades, and the challenges facing China in the coming years. China had been a prime example of export-led growth, benefiting from learning by doing, and by adopting foreign know-how, supported by a complex industrial policy. While the resultant growth has been spectacular, it comes with hidden but growing costs and distortions. The Chinese export-led growth path has been challenged by its own success, and the global financial crisis forced China toward rebalancing, which is a work in progress. Reflecting on the internationalization of the CNY, rapid acceleration of the commercial internationalization of the CNY is expected. In contrast, there are no clear-cut reasons to rush with the full CNY financial internationalization: the gains from CNY financial internationalization are overrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the role of the internal real exchange rate as a competitiveness indicator in economic growth among provinces in China. Using data from 28 Chinese provinces for the period 1992-2008 together with dynamic panel data estimation, the results reveal a positive effect of real exchange rate appreciation on economic growth. In other words, a competitive internal real exchange rate has not been found to support provincial economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we successfully overcome the problems of data availability and investigate the fiscal multipliers for autonomous prefectures in China. We first estimate the long-run elasticity of gross regional production with respect to fiscal expenditure at the prefecture level using autoregressive distributed lag models. We find that the estimated long-run elasticity is much less than unity and that the estimated fiscal multipliers for prefectures lie between 0.61 and 4.93, with an average of 1.93. These results indicate that additional fiscal expenditure remains effective in increasing local income and promoting economic growth for most autonomous prefectures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This is a comparative study of the important laws governing the macroeconomies of Taiwan and China. The laws are concerned with consumption, investment and fiscal and monetary policies of the government. Following similar studies on China, the present paper focuses on the case of Taiwan. Using annual data from 1961 to 2014 we find that the consumption function satisfies the permanent income hypothesis of Friedman and the investment function satisfies the accelerations principle as in the case of China. Money supply does not affect GDP but government expenditure has a positive effect on consumption and a negative effect on investment. These results are opposite to those obtained for China. Explanations of the differences are given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We estimate the interdependence between Chinese monetary policy and financial stress using structural vector autoregression. To solve the simultaneity problem, we employ a strategy including both short‐run and long‐run restrictions that maintains the qualitative properties of monetary policy shocks derived from the literature. This method is applied to Chinese monthly data, together with a newly constructed index of financial stress in this paper. Our findings suggest there exists strong interdependence between monetary policy and financial stress. The financial stress index increases immediately by 0.4 of its standard deviation after a monetary policy shock that raises the M2 growth rate by 1 percentage point. An increase of financial stress by one standard deviation leads to a decline in the M2 growth rate by 2 percentage points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key challenge facing most emerging market economies today is how to simultaneously maintain monetary independence, exchange rate stability and financial integration subject to the constraints imposed by the trilemma, in an era of widespread globalization. In this paper we review and contrast the trilemma policy choices and trade-offs faced by the two key drivers of global economic growth: China and India. China's trilemma configurations are unique relative to other emerging markets in terms of the predominance of exchange rate stability, and in the failure of the trilemma regression to capture a consistently significant role for financial integration. In contrast, the trilemma configurations of India are in line with choices made by other emerging countries. Over time, India, like other emerging economies, has converged towards a middle ground among the three policy objectives, and has achieved comparable levels of exchange rate stability and financial integration buffered by sizeable international reserves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper examines how the reduction in the price scissors impacted economic development during the early stage of China's reform period (i.e. 1981-1998). It is found that an increase in agriculture's terms of trade had a significant complementary effect with exportation on China's economic growth. Moreover, our data supports the results of Sah and Stiglitz (1987), who suggest that a reduction in the price scissors is associated with a decrease in physical capital accumulation in an open economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across the developing world education is seen as a means of raising levels of everyday wellbeing and is being linked to improved measures of productivity and economic growth. This paper employs a household production function framework to examine the determinants of school attendance among migrant children using a unique dataset collected in China's Jiangsu province. The study finds that the main predictors of school attendance among migrant children in the sample were household income, mother's education, the length of residence of the child's mother in the city and whether both parents were working in the same city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the nature and implications of globalization in China's economic development since 1978. It covers the four aspects of the flows of goods, capital, technology/information and of people to and from China. It also analyzes the role of the exchange rate of renminbi in transmitting the effects of foreign trade and investment to the Chinese macroeconomy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's rapid industrialization and recent accession to the WTO makes it difficult for the country to maintain self-sufficiency in agricultural products. Genetic modification technology could ease the situation, but is not without controversy. This paper focuses on the implication of GMO controversy for China. It explores the potential economic effects of China's not adopting versus adopting GMOs when some of its trading partners adopt that technology. The effects are shown to depend to a considerable extent on the trade policy stance taken in high-income countries that are opposed to GMOs, and/or on the liberalization of China's trade in textiles and apparel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper uses a Malmquist index measure of productivity growth to study the productivity convergence of 25 airports in China during the period 1995-2004. By decomposing the Malmquist index, we find evidence for the convergence of the efficiency level of airports, but not the productivity and technology levels. These results imply that the more productive airports are pushing the frontiers of technology faster by adopting new technology, and that the relative efficiency level of the laggards increases quickly and catches up with the efficiency level of the leaders over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The "new era", a term introduced by President Xi Jinping, may also be identified as the Xi era, during which China will be transformed from a moderately well‐off to a strong and wealthy nation. In the new era, the Chinese Government will deepen economic reform, widen economic opening and enhance the quality of economic growth. / Our projections show that by 2020, Chinese real GDP per capita, in 2017 prices, will exceed US$10,000, an economic development milestone. By 2031, Chinese real GDP will surpass US real GDP (US$29.4 trillion vs US$29.3 trillion), making China the largest economy in the world. However, Chinese real GDP per capita will still lag behind the US significantly, amounting to only one‐quarter of that of the United States. By 2050, Chinese real GDP will reach US$82.6 trillion, compared to US$51.4 trillion for the United States. However, in terms of real GDP per capita, China will still lag significantly behind, at US$53,000, slightly less than the current level of US real GDP per capita, compared to US$134,000 for the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From 1949, China's leaders brought their country through three decades of income and wealth compression, which was followed by more than three decades of sharply rising inequality. What preferences do China's people hold regarding what price (if any) is worth paying for greater equality? We conduct a laboratory decision‐making experiment mimicking aspects of a macro‐political–economic environment, using Chinese undergraduate student subjects. We find that our subjects have qualitatively similar tastes for equality as their counterparts in parallel US and European experiments; for example, most are willing to sacrifice some payment for more equality of earnings among other participants, and their willingness to do this is stronger when inequalities originate randomly versus based on performance. Considering the cases permitting direct comparison between Chinese and US subjects' choices, redistributive choices tend to be a bit higher in China if the participant pays no direct cost and a bit lower if he or she pays such a cost, but the two distributions of decisions differ significantly in under 14% of conditions. Survey data too suggests preferences for a more equal income distribution in China than in other East Asian countries, suggesting a possible impact of the Chinese Communist Party dominance in education and media. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many previous empirical studies have suggested that cooperation and trust affect economic growth. However, the precise relationship between trust and cooperation (i.e. whether trust leads to cooperation or cooperation leads to trust) remains unclear and it is not known how the level of economic development affects the level of cooperation and trust. Using a combination of public goods, gambling game and trust game experiments, we investigate the links among cooperation, trust and economic development in four regions of China. Our results suggest that, first, there is a U-shaped or V-shaped relationship between cooperation and economic development. Second, on the one hand, cooperation leads to trust, and on the other hand, more cooperative behaviour may be created by rewarding trusting behaviour. Third, men are more cooperative and trusting than women. Furthermore, we find that the widely used ' GSS trust' question from the General Social Survey ( GSS) does not predict either cooperation or trust, whereas the questions ' GSS fair' and ' GSS help' have weak predictive power for trusting behaviour but not for cooperative behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The institutional settings in China, including the land allocation system and the household registration system, lead to a rural-urban labour migration pattern that differs from that in other countries. Individual peasants' labour is often split (typically over different times of the year) into two or more parts as a result of institutional factors. Individuals work both as peasants on the land and as temporary migrant workers in urban areas (or in rural non-agricultural sectors). We examine this issue using province-level panel data. The present study provides a new interpretation of the phenomenon of labour shortages in coastal cities and rising rural migrant wages in China in recent years, and discusses whether the Lewisian turning point has been reached. Under part migration, the rural labour supply to urban areas is smaller than would be the case with full migration of workers to urban areas, so that the Lewisian turning point occurs earlier. This finding has important policy implications for China's future development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the major factors of growth of Hong Kong using a fairly new approach, which allows the direct inclusion of the factors of growth in the growth equation to be estimated. The growth factors that are found to be important for Hong Kong are physical capital accumulation, (negative) growth of unskilled workers, education, technology spillover (from foreign countries) through retained import of capital goods and inward direct investment, and learning-by-doing through import and domestic manufacturing production. The results strongly suggest that other than primary factor accumulation, education, trade, and foreign direct investment have contributed a lot to the growth of the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a given ageing profile of the population to forecast the growth path of China's economy during the twenty-first century, this study finds that: population ageing leads to declining economic growth as labour supply shrinks and the rate of physical capital formation declines; households’ material living standards improve, albeit at a declining rate; falling domestic investment partially offsets declining national savings; and the resulting saving-investment surplus generates a current account surplus and capital outflows. Finally, the main force that can sustain China's economic growth against the backdrop of population ageing is productivity improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article lays out three different historical perspectives on China's post-1978 economic reform era. It argues that historical perspectives allow us to apprehend features of the Chinese economy as they are formed in particular moments and contexts at the same time as we can appreciate the ways in which the possibilities conceived and achieved both affirm certain past practices and reject others. Without such vantage points it is more difficult to explain the manner in which China's economy has changed in the past 30 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]