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A large international meta-analysis using primary data from 64 cohorts has quantified the increased risk of fracture associated with a previous history of fracture for future use in FRAX., Introduction: The aim of this study was to quantify the fracture risk associated with a prior fracture on an international basis and to explore the relationship of this risk with age, sex, time since baseline and bone mineral density (BMD)., Methods: We studied 665,971 men and 1,438,535 women from 64 cohorts in 32 countries followed for a total of 19.5 million person-years. The effect of a prior history of fracture on the risk of any clinical fracture, any osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture alone was examined using an extended Poisson model in each cohort. Covariates examined were age, sex, BMD, and duration of follow-up. The results of the different studies were merged by using the weighted β-coefficients., Results: A previous fracture history, compared with individuals without a prior fracture, was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture (hazard ratio, HR = 1.88; 95% CI = 1.72-2.07). The risk ratio was similar for the outcome of osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.87; 95% CI = 1.69-2.07), major osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.83; 95% CI = 1.63-2.06), or for hip fracture (HR = 1.82; 95% CI = 1.62-2.06). There was no significant difference in risk ratio between men and women. Subsequent fracture risk was marginally downward adjusted when account was taken of BMD. Low BMD explained a minority of the risk for any clinical fracture (14%), osteoporotic fracture (17%), and for hip fracture (33%). The risk ratio for all fracture outcomes related to prior fracture decreased significantly with adjustment for age and time since baseline examination., Conclusion: A previous history of fracture confers an increased risk of fracture of substantial importance beyond that explained by BMD. The effect is similar in men and women. Its quantitation on an international basis permits the more accurate use of this risk factor in case finding strategies., (© 2023. International Osteoporosis Foundation and Bone Health and Osteoporosis Foundation.)

We describe the collection of cohorts together with the analysis plan for an update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX with respect to current and novel risk factors. The resource comprises 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures., Introduction: The availability of the fracture risk assessment tool FRAX® has substantially enhanced the targeting of treatment to those at high risk of fracture with FRAX now incorporated into more than 100 clinical osteoporosis guidelines worldwide. The aim of this study is to determine whether the current algorithms can be further optimised with respect to current and novel risk factors., Methods: A computerised literature search was performed in PubMed from inception until May 17, 2019, to identify eligible cohorts for updating the FRAX coefficients. Additionally, we searched the abstracts of conference proceedings of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research, European Calcified Tissue Society and World Congress of Osteoporosis. Prospective cohort studies with data on baseline clinical risk factors and incident fractures were eligible., Results: Of the 836 records retrieved, 53 were selected for full-text assessment after screening on title and abstract. Twelve cohorts were deemed eligible and of these, 4 novel cohorts were identified. These cohorts, together with 60 previously identified cohorts, will provide the resource for constructing an updated version of FRAX comprising 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures. For each known and candidate risk factor, multivariate hazard functions for hip fracture, major osteoporotic fracture and death will be tested using extended Poisson regression. Sex- and/or ethnicity-specific differences in the weights of the risk factors will be investigated. After meta-analyses of the cohort-specific beta coefficients for each risk factor, models comprising 10-year probability of hip and major osteoporotic fracture, with or without femoral neck bone mineral density, will be computed., Conclusions: These assembled cohorts and described models will provide the framework for an updated FRAX tool enabling enhanced assessment of fracture risk (PROSPERO (CRD42021227266))., (© 2022. International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation.)

This study identified the costs and health-related quality of life impacts of several post-fracture multidisciplinary care pathways specific to individual skeletal site (hip, distal forearm, vertebrae, humerus). These care pathways may assist healthcare providers in allocating resources for osteoporotic fractures in more effective and cost-efficient ways., Introduction: This micro-costing study was undertaken to provide the estimated healthcare costs of several fracture site-specific health service use pathways associated with different trajectories of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) 12-months post-fracture., Methods: The study included 4126 adults aged ≥ 50 years with a fragility fracture (1657 hip, 681 vertebrae, 1354 distal forearm, 434 humerus) from the International Costs & Utilities Related to Osteoporotic fractures Study (ICUROS). ICUROS participants were asked to recall the frequency and duration (where applicable) of their health and community care service use at 4- and 12-month follow-up visits. Patient-level costs were identified and aggregated to determine the average cost of healthcare use related to the fracture in each care pathway (presented in Australian 2021 dollars). Mean cost differences were calculated and analysed using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and post hoc Bonferroni correction to determine any statistically significant differences., Results: The total direct cost of fractures was estimated at $89564, $38926, $18333, and $38461AUD per patient for hip, vertebral, wrist, and humeral participants, respectively. A Kruskal-Wallis test yielded a statistically significant difference in cost values between most care pathways (p < 0.001). Of the 20 care pathways, those associated with recovery of HRQoL had lower mean costs per patient across each fracture site., Conclusions: This study identified the costs and HRQoL impacts of several multidisciplinary care pathways for individual fracture sites based on the health service utilization of an international cohort of older adults. These care pathways may assist healthcare providers in allocating resources for fragility fractures in more effective and cost-efficient ways., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Vertebral fracture (VF) is a strong predictor of subsequent fracture. In this study of older women, VF, identified by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) vertebral fracture assessment (VFA), were associated with an increased risk of incident fractures and had a substantial impact on fracture probability, supporting the utility of VFA in clinical practice., Purpose: Clinical and occult VF can be identified using VFA with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent VFA-identified VF improve fracture risk prediction, independently of bone mineral density (BMD) and clinical risk factors used in FRAX., Methods: A total of 2852 women, 75-80 years old, from the prospective population-based study SUPERB cohort, were included in this study. At baseline, BMD was measured by DXA, VF diagnosed by VFA, and questionnaires used to collect data on risk factors for fractures. Incident fractures were captured by X-ray records or by diagnosis codes. An extension of Poisson regression was used to estimate the association between VFA-identified VF and the risk of fracture and the 5- and 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) was calculated from the hazard functions for fracture and death., Results: During a median follow-up of 5.15 years (IQR 4.3-5.9 years), the number of women who died or suffered a MOF, clinical VF, or hip fracture was 229, 422, 160, and 124, respectively. A VFA-identified VF was associated with an increased risk of incident MOF (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.78; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.46-2.18), clinical VF (HR = 2.88; 95% [CI] 2.11-3.93), and hip fracture (HR = 1.67; 95% [CI] 1.15-2.42), adjusted for age, height, and weight. For women at age 75 years, a VFA-identified VF was associated with 1.2-1.4-fold greater 10-year MOF probability compared with not taking VFA into account, depending on BMD., Conclusion: Identifying an occult VF using VFA has a substantial impact on fracture probability, indicating that VFA is an efficient method to improve fracture prediction in older women., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

In this study of 695 Australian older adults (aged ≥50 years), we found that men and women had a similar trajectory of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) recovery following fragility fracture at any skeletal site. These results provide us with critical knowledge that improves our understanding of health outcomes post-fracture., Introduction: Mortality is higher in men than that in women following a fragility fracture, but it is unclear whether recovery of patient-reported outcomes such as health-related quality of life (HRQoL) differs between sexes. This study aimed to identify sex differences in HRQoL recovery 12 months post-fracture., Methods: Data were from the Australian arm of the International Costs and Utilities Related to Osteoporotic Fractures Study (AusICUROS). Participants recruited to AusICUROS were adults aged ≥50 years who sustained a fragility fracture. HRQoL was measured using the EQ-5D-3L at three time-points post-fracture: within 2 weeks (including pre-fracture recall) and at 4 and 12 months. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were undertaken, adjusting for confounders including age, education, income, and healthcare utilization post-fracture., Results: Overall, 695 AusICUROS participants (536 women, 77.1%) were eligible for analysis with fractures at the hip (n = 150), distal forearm (n = 261), vertebrae (n = 61), humerus (n = 52), and other skeletal sites (n = 171). At the time of fracture, men were younger, reported a higher income, and were more likely to be employed, compared with women. For all fracture sites combined, there were no differences between men and women in recovery to pre-fracture HRQoL at 12-month follow-up (adjusted OR = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.75-1.61). When stratified by fracture site, no significant sex differences were seen for hip (OR = 1.02; 95% CI: 0.42-2.52), distal forearm (OR = 1.60; 95% CI: 0.68-3.78), vertebral (OR = 2.28; 95% CI: 0.61-8.48), humeral (OR = 1.62; 95% CI: 0.16-9.99), and other fractures (OR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.44-2.26)., Conclusion: Community-dwelling men and women who survived the 12 months following fragility fracture had a similar trajectory of HRQoL recovery at any skeletal site., (© 2021. International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation.)

We compared, for women in Pakistan, the utility of intervention thresholds either at a T-score ≤  - 2.5 or based on a FRAX probability equivalent to women of average body mass index (BMI) with a prior fragility fracture. Whereas the FRAX-based intervention threshold identified women at high fracture probability, the T-score threshold was less sensitive, and the associated fracture risk decreased markedly with age., Purpose: The fracture risk assessment algorithm FRAX® has been recently calibrated for Pakistan, but guidance is needed on how to apply fracture probabilities to clinical practice., Methods: The age-specific 10-year probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture were calculated in women with average BMI to determine fracture probabilities at two potential intervention thresholds. The first comprised the age-specific fracture probabilities associated with a femoral neck T-score of - 2.5. The second approach determined age-specific fracture probabilities that were equivalent to a woman with a prior fragility fracture, without bone mineral density (BMD). The parsimonious use of BMD was additionally explored by the computation of upper and lower assessment thresholds for BMD testing., Results: When a BMD T-score ≤  - 2.5 was used as an intervention threshold, FRAX probabilities in women aged 50 years were approximately two-fold higher than in women of the same age but with no risk factors and average BMD. The relative increase in risk associated with the BMD threshold decreased progressively with age such that, at the age of 80 years or more, a T-score of - 2.5 was actually protective. The 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture by age, equivalent to women with a previous fracture, rose with age from 2.1% at the age of 40 years to 17%, at the age of 90 years, and identified women at increased risk at all ages., Conclusion: Intervention thresholds based on BMD alone do not effectively target women at high fracture risk, particularly in the elderly. In contrast, intervention thresholds based on fracture probabilities equivalent to a 'fracture threshold' target women at high fracture risk., (© 2021. International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation.)

In women of ages 75-80 years, a low one leg standing time (OLST) was associated with an increased risk of incident fractures, independently of bone mineral density and clinical risk factors. OLST contributed substantially to fracture probability, indicating that the test should be considered when evaluating fracture risk in older women., Introduction: Physical function and risk of falls are important risk factors for fracture. A few previous studies have suggested that a one leg standing time (OLST) less than 10 s predicts fracture risk, but the impact of OLST, in addition to known clinical risk factors, for fracture probability is unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the independent contribution of OLST to fracture probability in older women., Methods: The Sahlgrenska University Hospital Prospective Evaluation of Risk of Bone Fractures (SUPERB) is a prospective population-based study of 3028 women 75-80 years old, recruited from the greater Gothenburg area in Sweden. At baseline, information on risk factors was collected using questionnaires, bone mineral density was measured with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and OLST was performed., Results: During a median follow-up of 3.6 years (IQR 1.5 years), X-ray-verified incident fractures were identified using health records. OLST was available in 2405 women. OLST less than 10 s was associated with an increased risk for incident hip fracture (Hazard Ratio (HR) 3.02, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) [1.49-6.10]), major osteoporotic fracture (HR 95% CI 1.76 [1.34-1.46]), and nonvertebral fracture (HR 95% CI 1.61 [1.26-2.05]) in Cox regression analyses adjusted for age, height, and weight. Depending on BMD, the 4-year fracture probability increased by a factor of 1.3 to 1.5 in a 75-year-old woman with a low OLST (<10 s)., Conclusion: A low OLST has a substantial impact on fracture probability and should be considered when evaluating fracture risk in older women., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

The National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG) has developed intervention thresholds based on FRAX® to characterise patients at high and very high risk of fracture., Introduction: Guidelines for the assessment of fracture risk have begun to categorise patients eligible for treatment into high and very high risk of fracture to inform choice of therapeutic approach. The aim of the present study was to develop intervention thresholds based on the hybrid assessment model of NOGG., Methods: We examined the impact of intervention thresholds in a simulated cross-sectional cohort of women age 50 years or more from the UK with the distribution of baseline characteristics based on that in the FRAX cohorts. The prevalence of very high risk using the hybrid model was compared with age-dependent thresholds used by the International Osteoporosis Foundation and the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis (IOF/ESCEO). The appropriateness of thresholds was tested based on the populations treated with anabolic agents., Results: With an upper intervention threshold using the IOF/ESCEO criteria, 56% of women age 50 years or more would be characterised at very high risk. This compares with 36% using the IOF/ESCEO criteria and an age-specific intervention threshold over all ages. With an upper intervention threshold of 1.6 times the pre-existing intervention threshold, 10% of women age 50 years or more would be characterised at very high risk. The data from phase 3 studies indicate that most trial participants exposed to romosozumab or teriparatide would fall into the very high-risk category., Conclusions: Proposals for FRAX-based criteria for very high risk for the NOGG hybrid model categorise a small proportion of women age 50 years or more (10%) in this highest risk stratum. The level of risk identified was comparable to that of women enrolled in trials of anabolic agents., (© 2021. International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation.)

In a simulated population of older women, we demonstrate that an upward shift in the population distribution of BMD by approximately 0.3SD may decrease the risk of incident fractures to the same extent as an intervention targeted to those with T-score less than -2.5., Introduction: To investigate the impact of population level or targeted alterations to BMD on the incidence of fractures., Methods: We used a simulated cohort of 49,242 women with age and body mass index distribution from the UK, and prevalence of other clinical risk factors based on European FRAX® cohorts. Using FRAX probabilities of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF: hip, clinical vertebral, distal forearm, proximal humerus) and hip fracture, calculated with femoral neck BMD, we determined the expected number of fractures over 10 years, stratified by 10-year age band from 50 years. We then investigated the effect of (i) uplifting all individuals with T-score below -2.5 to be exactly -2.5 (high-risk strategy) and (ii) shifting the entire BMD distribution upwards (population strategy)., Results: Overall, the high-risk strategy prevented 573 MOF including 465 hip fractures. Moving the BMD T-score distribution upward by 0.27SD gave an equivalent reduction in numbers of MOF; for hip fractures prevented, this was 0.35SD. A global upward 0.25SD BMD shift prevented 524 MOF including 354 hip fractures, with corresponding figures for an increase of 0.5SD being 973 MOF prevented and 640 hip fractures prevented. The ratio of hip fracture to MOF prevented differed by the two approaches, such that for the high-risk strategy, the ratio was 0.81, and for the population strategy was 0.68 (0.25SD BMD uplift) and 0.66 (0.5SD BMD uplift). The numbers of fractures prevented by the high-risk strategy increased with age. In contrast, the age-related increase in numbers of fractures prevented with the population strategy rose with age, but peaked in the 70-79-year age band and declined thereafter., Conclusions: Both strategies reduced the numbers of expected incident fractures, with contrasting relative impacts by age and fracture site. Whilst the current analysis used UK/European anthropometric/risk factor distributions, further analyses calibrated to the distributions in other settings globally may be readily undertaken. Overall, these findings support the investigation of both population level interventions and those targeted at high fracture risk groups., (© 2021. International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation.)

The risk of a recurrent fragility fracture varies by age and sex, as by site and recency of sentinel fracture., Introduction: The recency of prior fractures affects subsequent fracture risk. Variable recency may obscure other factors that affect subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of a sentinel fracture by site, age, and sex where the recency was held constant., Methods: The study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Fracture incidence was compared to that of the general population determined at fixed times after a sentinel fracture (humeral, clinical vertebral, forearm, hip, and minor fractures). Outcome fractures comprised a major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture., Results: Sentinel osteoporotic fractures were identified in 9504 men and women. Of these, 3616 individuals sustained a major osteoporotic fracture as the first subsequent fracture, of whom 1799 sustained a hip fracture. Hazard ratios for prior fracture were consistently higher in men than in women and decreased progressively with age. Hazard ratios varied according to the site of sentinel fracture with higher ratios for hip and vertebral fracture than for humerus, forearm, or minor osteoporotic fracture., Conclusion: The risk of a recurrent fragility fracture varies by age, sex, and site of sentinel fracture when recency is held constant., (© 2020. International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation.)

This study aimed to determine the interaction between baseline FRAX ® fracture probability and romosozumab efficacy. Using an ITT approach, it was determined that the efficacy of romosozumab on clinical fracture, osteoporotic fracture, and major osteoporotic fracture is significantly greater in patients at high baseline fracture risk, when compared with placebo., Introduction: Post hoc analyses of placebo-controlled osteoporosis treatment studies have shown significantly greater reductions of fracture incidence for higher fracture risk patients. This study determined the interaction between baseline FRAX ® fracture probability and romosozumab efficacy in the placebo-controlled first year of the phase 3 FRAME study (NCT01575834)., Methods: Using an ITT approach, an extension of Poisson regression analysis studied the relationship between treatment, FRAX ® 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF, calculated without BMD) and risk of first incident fracture (adjusting for age and follow-up time). Treatment interactions considered outcomes of all clinical fractures, osteoporotic fractures, MOF, clinical vertebral fractures, and morphometric vertebral fractures. Two-sided p value of < 0.1 for the interaction between treatment and FRAX ® was considered significant., Results: Compared with placebo, romosozumab reduced the incidence of all fracture outcomes in the first year (range: 32% reduction in MOF [p = 0.07] to 80% reduction in clinical vertebral fractures [p = 0.038]). Significant interactions were observed between efficacy and baseline FRAX ® probability for composite outcomes of clinical fractures, osteoporotic fractures, and MOF (p = 0.064-0.084), but not vertebral fractures (p > 0.3). For example, romosozumab decreased all clinical fractures by 22% at the 25th centile of FRAX ® probability but the reduction was 41% at the 75th centile. Exclusion of vertebral fractures from each composite fracture outcome (i.e. only nonvertebral fractures included) showed even stronger interactions with baseline FRAX ® probability (p = 0.036-0.046)., Conclusions: Efficacy of romosozumab on clinical fracture, osteoporotic fracture, and MOF is significantly greater in patients at high baseline fracture risk compared with placebo., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

A novel cost-effectiveness model framework was developed to incorporate the elevated fracture risk associated with a recent fracture and to allow sequential osteoporosis therapies to be evaluated. Treating patients with severe osteoporosis after a recent fracture with a bone-forming agent followed by antiresorptive therapy can be cost-effective compared with antiresorptive therapy alone. Incorporating these novel technical attributes in economic evaluations can support appropriate policy and reimbursement decision-making., Purpose: To develop a cost-effectiveness model accommodating increased fracture risk after a recent fracture and treatment sequencing., Methods: A micro-simulation cost-utility model was developed to accommodate both treatment sequencing and increased risk with recent fracture. The risk of fracture was estimated and simulated using the FRAX® algorithms combined with Swedish registry data on imminent fracture relative risk. In the base-case cost-effectiveness analysis, a sequential treatment starting with a bone-forming agent for 12 months followed by an antiresorptive agent for 48 months initiated immediately after a major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) in a 70-year-old woman with a T-score of 2.5 or less was compared to an antiresorptive treatment alone for 60 months. The model was populated with data relevant for a UK population reflecting a personal social service perspective., Results: The cost per additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained in the base-case setting was estimated at £34,584. Sensitivity analyses revealed the sequential treatment to be cost-saving compared with administering a bone-forming treatment alone. Without simulating an elevated fracture risk immediately after a recent fracture, the cost per QALY changed from £34,584 to £62,184., Conclusion: Incorporating imminent fracture risk in economic evaluations has a significant impact on the cost-effectiveness when evaluating fracture prevention treatments in patients with osteoporosis who sustained a recent fracture. Bone-forming treatment followed by antiresorptive therapy can be cost-effective compared to antiresorptive therapy alone depending on treatment acquisition costs.

Romosozumab is a novel bone-building drug that reduces fracture risk. This health economic analysis indicates that sequential romosozumab-to-alendronate can be a cost-effective treatment option for postmenopausal women with severe osteoporosis at high risk of fracture., Purpose: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of sequential treatment with romosozumab followed by alendronate ("romosozumab-to-alendronate") compared with alendronate alone in patients with severe osteoporosis at high risk of fracture in Sweden., Methods: A microsimulation model with a Markov structure was used to simulate fractures, costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), for women treated with romosozumab-to-alendronate or alendronate alone. Patients aged 74 years with a recent major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) were followed from the start of treatment until the age of 100 years or death. Treatment with romosozumab for 12 months was followed by alendronate for up to 48 months or alendronate alone with a maximum treatment duration of 60 months. The analysis had a societal perspective. Efficacy of romosozumab and alendronate were derived from phase III randomized controlled trials. Resource use and unit costs were collected from the literature. Cost-effectiveness was estimated using incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with QALYs as effectiveness measures., Results: The base case analysis showed that sequential romosozumab-to-alendronate treatment was associated with 0.089 additional QALYs at an additional cost of €3002 compared to alendronate alone, resulting in an ICER of €33,732. At a Swedish reference willingness-to-pay per QALY of €60,000, romosozumab-to-alendronate had a 97.9% probability of being cost-effective against alendronate alone. The results were most sensitive to time horizon, persistence assumptions, patient age, and treatment efficacy., Conclusion: The results of this study indicate that sequential romosozumab-to-alendronate can be a cost-effective treatment option for postmenopausal women with severe osteoporosis at high risk of fracture.

We identified large between-ethnicity calibration differences in the Canadian FRAX® tool which substantially overestimated the major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) risk in Asian women and Black women, and overestimated hip fracture risk in Asian women., Purpose: FRAX® is calibrated using population-specific fracture and mortality data. The need for FRAX to accommodate ethnic diversity within a country is uncertain. We addressed this question using the population-based Manitoba Bone Mineral Density (BMD) Program registry and self-reported ethnicity., Methods: The study population was women aged 40 years or older with baseline FRAX assessments (Canadian and other ethnic calculators), fracture outcomes, and self-reported ethnicity (White N = 68,907 [referent], Asian N = 1910, Black N = 356). Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for time to MOF and hip fracture were estimated. We examined candidate variables from DXA that might contribute to ethnic differences including skeletal size, hip axis length (HAL), trabecular bone score (TBS), and estimated body composition., Results: Adjusted for baseline risk using the Canadian FRAX tool with BMD, Asian women compared with White women were at much lower risk for MOF (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.35-0.59) and hip fracture (0.16, 95% CI 0.08-0.34). Black women were also at lower MOF risk (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.32-1.00); there were no hip fractures. The US ethnic-specific FRAX calculators accounted for most of the between-ethnicity differences in MOF risk (86% for Asian, 92% for Black) but only partially accounted for lower hip fracture risk in Asian women (40%). The candidate variables explained only a minority of the effect of ethnicity. Gradient of risk in analyses was similar (p-interactions ethnicity*FRAX non-significant)., Conclusions: We identified significant ethnic differences in performance of the Canadian FRAX tool with fracture probability overestimated among Asian and Black women. The US ethnic calculators helped to address this discrepancy for MOF risk assessment, but not for hip fracture risk among Asian women.

The increase in fracture risk associated with a recent fragility fracture is more appropriately captured using a 10-year fracture probability than 2- or 5-year probabilities., Introduction: The recency of prior fractures affects subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of a recent sentinel fracture, by site, on the 2-, 5-, and 10-year probability of fracture., Methods: The study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Fracture probabilities were determined after a sentinel fracture (humeral, clinical vertebral, forearm and hip fracture) occurring within the previous 2 years and probabilities for a prior osteoporotic fracture irrespective of recency. The probability ratios were used to adjust fracture probabilities over a 2-, 5-, and 10-year time horizon., Results: As expected, probabilities decreased with decreasing time horizon. Probability ratios varied according to age and the site of sentinel fracture. Probability ratios to adjust for a prior fracture within the previous 2 years were higher the shorter the time horizon, but the absolute increases in fracture probabilities were much reduced. Thus, fracture probabilities were substantially lower with time horizons less than 10 years., Conclusion: The 10-year probability of fractures is the appropriate metric to capture the impact of the recency of sentinel fractures. The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures, adjustments which can readily inform clinical decision-making.

The COVID-19 pandemic, and its management, is markedly impacting the management of osteoporosis as judged by access to online FRAX fracture risk assessments. Globally, access was 58% lower in April than in February 2020. Strategies to improve osteoporosis care, with greater use of fracture risk assessments, offer a partial solution., Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic is having a significant detrimental impact on the management of chronic diseases including osteoporosis. We have quantified the global impact by examining changes in the usage of online FRAX fracture risk assessments before and after the declaration of the pandemic (11 March 2020)., Methods: The study comprised a retrospective analysis using GoogleAnalytics data on daily sessions on the FRAX® website ( www.sheffield.ac.uk/FRAX ) from November 2019 to April 2020 (main analysis period February-April 2020), and the geographical source of that activity., Results: Over February-April 2020, the FRAX website recorded 460,495 sessions from 184 countries, with 210,656 sessions in February alone. In March and April, the number of sessions fell by 23.1% and 58.3% respectively, a pattern not observed over the same period in 2019. There were smaller reductions in Asia than elsewhere, partly related to earlier and less-marked nadirs in some countries (China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Vietnam). In Europe, the majority of countries (24/31, 77.4%) reduced usage by at least 50% in April. Seven countries showed smaller reductions (range - 2.85 to - 44.1%) including Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Germany, Norway, Sweden and Finland. There was no significant relationship between the reduction in FRAX usage and measures of disease burden such as COVID-attributed deaths per million of the population., Conclusion: This study documents a marked global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the management of osteoporosis as reflected by FRAX online fracture risk assessments. The analysis suggests that impact may relate to the societal and healthcare measures taken to ameliorate the pandemic.

This paper explores use of metrics that combine fracture outcomes that add power to phase 3 studies and provide a surrogate outcome for regulatory agencies., Introduction: The aim of this study was to develop an analytic framework that would combine information from all fracture outcomes (including radiographic vertebral fractures) in phase 3 studies to provide a metric for the assessment of treatment efficacy., Methods: Data from the phase 3 study of denosumab were used as an exemplar comparing the effects of active intervention with placebo on the risk of all fractures associated with osteoporosis. Fracture outcomes were assigned utility weights drawn from the published literature and applied to age-specific health state values of the general population. For each fracture outcome in each arm of the study, cumulative disutility was computed to serve as the principal end point. The hypothesis tested was that treatment with denosumab results in a significant reduction in mean fracture-related disutility., Results: Treatment with denosumab was associated with significantly lower utility loss compared with placebo. For patients treated with denosumab, mean utility loss was 42% less than with placebo (4.5 vs. 7.5 QALYs/1000 patient years, respectively, p < 0.001)., Conclusions: Denosumab significantly decreased utility loss. The use of metrics that combine fracture outcomes may provide added power to phase 3 studies and provide a surrogate outcome for regulatory agencies.

The timed up and go (TUG) test measures physical performance and predicts falls in the elderly. In older women, TUG time predicts the risk of major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture independently of clinical risk factors and bone mineral density, and has a substantial impact on fracture probabilities., Introduction: The timed up and go (TUG) test measures physical performance and predicts falls in the elderly. A slow TUG has been associated with an increased fracture risk, but it is unclear whether the association is independent of clinical risk factors and bone mineral density (BMD). The aim of this study was to investigate if TUG time was associated with fracture risk independently of clinical risk factors and BMD and to determine its impact on fracture probabilities in older women., Methods: A standardized questionnaire was used to assess information regarding clinical risk factors in the large population-based SUPERB study of 3028 older women (75-80 years). At baseline, the TUG test was performed and BMD measured with DXA. The association between TUG time and the risk of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) was examined using an extension of Poisson regression., Results: Fracture incidence increased steeply with increasing TUG time up to 12 s and subsequently started to level off. A slow TUG time was therefore defined as TUG > 12 s, a cutoff level then used in Cox models to study the association between slow TUG and fracture risk. A slow TUG time was associated with an increased risk of fracture (MOF 2.39 [1.80-3.18] and hip fracture 2.96 [1.62-5.40]). These associations were slightly attenuated but remained significant after adjustment for clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD. Depending on BMD, the 4-year fracture probability of MOF increased by a factor of 1.5-1.9 in a 75-year-old woman with slow TUG (> 12 s)., Conclusion: The TUG time predicts the risk of MOF and hip fracture independently of clinical risk factors and BMD and has a substantial impact on fracture probabilities, indicating that inclusion of the TUG test in patient evaluation should be considered in order to improve fracture prediction in older women.

Celiac disease is associated with an increased fracture risk but is not a direct input to the FRAX® calculation. When celiac disease is considered as a secondary osteoporosis risk factor or BMD is included in the FRAX assessment, FRAX accurately predicts fracture risk., Introduction: The fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX®) uses clinical factors and bone mineral density (BMD) measurement to predict 10-year major osteoporotic (MOF) fracture probability. The study aim was to determine whether celiac disease affects MOF risk independent of FRAX score., Methods: The Manitoba BMD Registry includes clinical data, BMD measurements, 10-year probability of MOF calculated for each individual using the Canadian FRAX tool and diagnosed celiac disease. Using linkage to population-based healthcare databases, we identified incident MOF diagnoses over the next 10 years for celiac disease and general population cohorts., Results: Celiac disease (N = 693) was associated with increased fracture risk adjusted for FRAX score computed without secondary osteoporosis or BMD (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-1.86). Celiac disease was no longer a significant risk factor for fracture when secondary osteoporosis or BMD were included in the FRAX calculation (p > 0.1). In subjects with celiac disease, each SD increase in FRAX score (calculated with and without secondary osteoporosis or BMD) was associated with higher risk of incident MOF (adjusted HR 1.66 to 1.80), similar to the general population (p-interaction > 0.2). Including celiac disease as secondary osteoporosis or including BMD in FRAX 10-year MOF probability calculations (10.1% and 8.6% respectively) approximated the observed cumulative 10-year MOF probability (10.8%, 95% CI 7.8-13.9%)., Conclusions: Celiac disease is associated with an increased risk of major osteoporotic fractures. When celiac disease is considered as a secondary osteoporosis risk factor or BMD is included in FRAX assessment, FRAX accurately predicts fracture risk.

We provide an evidence base and guidance for the use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) for the maintenance of skeletal health and prevention of future fractures in recently menopausal women. Despite controversy over associated side effects, which has limited its use in recent decades, the potential role for MHT soon after menopause in the management of postmenopausal osteoporosis is increasingly recognized. We present a narrative review of the benefits versus risks of using MHT in the management of postmenopausal osteoporosis. Current literature suggests robust anti-fracture efficacy of MHT in patients unselected for low BMD, regardless of concomitant use with progestogens, but with limited evidence of persisting skeletal benefits following cessation of therapy. Side effects include cardiovascular events, thromboembolic disease, stroke and breast cancer, but the benefit-risk profile differs according to the use of opposed versus unopposed oestrogens, type of oestrogen/progestogen, dose and route of delivery and, for cardiovascular events, timing of MHT use. Overall, the benefit-risk profile supports MHT treatment in women who have recently (< 10 years) become menopausal, who have menopausal symptoms and who are less than 60 years old, with a low baseline risk for adverse events. MHT should be considered as an option for the maintenance of skeletal health in women, specifically as an additional benefit in the context of treatment of menopausal symptoms, when commenced at the menopause, or shortly thereafter, in the context of a personalized benefit-risk evaluation.

The risk of a recurrent fragility fracture is particularly high immediately following the fracture. This study provides adjustments to FRAX-based fracture probabilities accounting for the site of a recent fracture., Introduction: The recency of prior fractures affects subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of a recent sentinel fracture, by site, on the 10-year probability of fracture determined with FRAX., Methods: The study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Fracture probabilities were determined after a sentinel fracture (humeral, clinical vertebral, forearm and hip fracture) from the hazards of death and fracture. Fracture probabilities were computed on the one hand for sentinel fractures occurring within the previous 2 years and on the other hand, probabilities for a prior osteoporotic fracture irrespective of recency. The probability ratios provided adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures., Results: Probability ratios to adjust 10-year FRAX probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture for recent sentinel fractures were age dependent, decreasing with age in both men and women. Probability ratios varied according to the site of sentinel fracture with higher ratios for hip and vertebral fracture than for humerus or forearm fracture. Probability ratios to adjust 10-year FRAX probabilities of a hip fracture for recent sentinel fractures were also age dependent, decreasing with age in both men and women with the exception of forearm fractures., Conclusion: The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures.

In a global survey of fracture liaison services, most reported that DXA access met needs. However, adherence to basic DXA quality and reporting procedures was confirmed by only around 50% of institutions and many required education for operators/interpreters. Overall, there is significant variability in the access to, and quality of, DXA services worldwide., Introduction: While the use of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) has been widely adopted worldwide for the assessment of bone mineral density, the quality of DXA facilities is unknown. To address this, a global survey of fracture liaison services (FLS) was conducted by the International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) and the International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) to assess the quality of their DXA facilities., Methods: A questionnaire for the accessibility and quality of DXA services was co-created by representatives of the ISCD and the IOF and made available to institutions who participated in the Capture the Fracture Best Practice Framework. From a list of 331 contacted invitees, 124 FLS centres responded; analyses were based on 121 centres with suitable data., Results: Over 70% of institutions reported that, for over 90% of the time, DXA access met service needs, and the scanning/reporting quality was perceived as excellent. However, 25% of DXA facilities reported not being accredited by a professional/governmental organization, and adherence to some basic DXA quality assurance and reporting procedures was confirmed by < 50% of services. Importantly, in excess of 50% of institutions stated that they desired ongoing education in osteoporosis and DXA for operators and interpreters., Conclusion: There is significant variability in the access to and quality of DXA services for established FLS worldwide. Despite two decades of training initiatives in osteoporosis densitometry, many centres are falling short of the standards of the IOF-ISCD Osteoporosis Essentials criteria.

Community-based screening and treatment of women aged 70-85 years at high fracture risk reduced fractures; moreover, the screening programme was cost-saving. The results support a case for a screening programme of fracture risk in older women in the UK., Introduction: The SCOOP (screening for prevention of fractures in older women) randomized controlled trial investigated whether community-based screening could reduce fractures in women aged 70-85 years. The objective of this study was to estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of screening for fracture risk in a UK primary care setting compared with usual management, based on the SCOOP study., Methods: A health economic Markov model was used to predict the life-time consequences in terms of costs and quality of life of the screening programme compared with the control arm. The model was populated with costs related to drugs, administration and screening intervention derived from the SCOOP study. Fracture risk reduction in the screening arm compared with the usual management arm was derived from SCOOP. Modelled fracture risk corresponded to the risk observed in SCOOP., Results: Screening of 1000 patients saved 9 hip fractures and 20 non-hip fractures over the remaining lifetime (mean 14 years) compared with usual management. In total, the screening arm saved costs (£286) and gained 0.015 QALYs/patient in comparison with usual management arm., Conclusions: This analysis suggests that a screening programme of fracture risk in older women in the UK would gain quality of life and life years, and reduce fracture costs to more than offset the cost of running the programme.

Prior high-trauma fractures identified through health services data are associated with low bone mineral density (BMD) and future fracture risk to the same extent as fractures without high-trauma., Introduction: Some have questioned the usefulness of distinguishing high-trauma fractures from low-trauma fractures. The aim of this study is to compare BMD measurements and risk of subsequent low-trauma fracture in patients with prior high- or low-trauma fractures., Methods: Using a clinical BMD registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada, we identified women and men age 40 years or older with fracture records from linked population-based healthcare data. Age- and sex-adjusted BMD Z-scores and covariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident fracture were studied in relation to prior fracture status, categorized as high-trauma if associated with external injury codes and low-trauma otherwise., Results: The study population consisted of 64,428 women and men with no prior fracture (mean age 63.7 years), 858 with prior high-trauma fractures (mean age 65.1 years), and 14,758 with prior low-trauma fractures (mean age 67.2 years). Mean Z-scores for those with any prior high-trauma fracture were significantly lower than in those without prior fracture (P < 0.001) and similar to those with prior low-trauma fracture. Median observation time for incident fractures was 8.8 years (total 729,069 person-years). Any prior high-trauma fracture was significantly associated with increased risk for incident major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) (adjusted HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.08-1.59) as was prior low-trauma fracture (adjusted HR 1.55, 95% CI 1.47-1.63), and there was no significant difference between the two groups (prior trauma versus low-trauma fracture P = 0.093). A similar pattern was seen when incident MOF was studied in relation to prior hip fracture or prior MOF, or when the outcome was incident hip fracture or any incident fracture., Conclusions: High-trauma and low-trauma fractures showed similar relationships with low BMD and future fracture risk. This supports the inclusion of high-trauma fractures in clinical assessment for underlying osteoporosis and in the evaluation for intervention to reduce future fracture risk.

During median follow-up 6.0 years in 11,495 individuals, prior absolute and annualized measured height loss was significantly greater in those with subsequent incident fracture compared with those without incident fracture., Purpose: FRAX® accepts baseline height and weight as input variables, but does not consider change in these parameters over time., Aim: To evaluate the association between measured height or weight loss on subsequent fracture risk adjusted for FRAX scores, risk factors, and competing mortality., Methods: Using a dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) registry for the Province of Manitoba, Canada, we identified women and men age 40 years or older with height and weight measured at the time of two DXA scans. Cox regression analyses were performed to test for a covariate-adjusted association between prior height and weight loss with incident fractures occurring after the second scan using linked population-based healthcare data., Results: The study population consisted of 11,495 individuals (average age 68.0 ± 9.9 years, 94.6% women). During median follow-up 6.0 years, records demonstrated incident major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) in 869 individuals, hip fractures in 265, clinical vertebral fractures in 207, and any fracture in 1203. Prior height loss was significantly greater in individuals with fracture compared with those without fracture, regardless of fracture site. Mortality was greater in those with prior height loss (HR per SD 1.11, 95% CI 1.06-1.17) or weight loss (HR per SD 1.26, 95% CI 1.19-1.32). Each SD in height loss was associated with increased fracture risk (MOF 12-17%, hip 8-19%, clinical vertebral 28-37%, any fracture 14-19%). Prior weight loss was associated with 21-30% increased risk for hip fracture, but did not increase risk for other fractures. Height loss of 3.0 cm or greater more than doubled the risk for subsequent fracture., Conclusions: Prior height loss is associated with a small but significant increase in risk of incident fracture at all skeletal sites independent of other clinical risk factors and competing mortality as considered by FRAX. Prior weight loss only increases risk for subsequent hip fracture.

We studied the risk for hip fracture before and after total knee replacement (TKR) in the entire population in Sweden. Women and men had a low risk for hip fracture before TKR but an increased risk the first year after TKR., Purpose: It is known that osteoarthritis is associated with high bone mass. We therefore studied the risk of hip fracture before and after total knee replacement (TKR), risk of different hip fracture types, and risk subdivided in genders and age groups., Methods: We followed the total Swedish population born between 1902 and 1952 (n = 4,258,934) during the period 1987-2002 and identified all patients with TKR due to primary OA (n = 39,291), and all patients with hip fracture (n = 195,860) in the Swedish National Inpatient Register. The risk time analyses were based on Poisson regression models., Results: The hazard ratio (HR) for hip fracture the last year before TKR was 0.86 (95% CI 0.74 to 1.00) and the first year after 1.26 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.42) compared to individuals without TKR. The HR for femoral neck fracture 0-10 years after TKR was 0.95 (95% CI 0.89 to 1.01) and for trochanteric fracture was 1.13 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.21). The HR for hip fracture in the age group 50-74 was 1.28 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.43) and in the age group 75-90 years was 0.99 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.04) 0-10 years after TKR, compared to individuals without TKR., Conclusion: Individuals had a low risk for hip fracture before TKR but an increased risk the first year after TKR. The risk in individuals below age 75 years and for trochanteric fractures was increased after TKR. Possible explanations include changed knee kinematics after a TKR, physical activity level, fall risk, and other unknown factors.

International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine and The International Osteoporosis Foundation Joint Committee on Bone Metabolism believes that the harmonization of PINP assays is an achievable and practical goal., Introduction: In order to examine the agreement between current commercial assays, a multi-center study was performed for PINP in serum and plasma., Methods: The automated methods for PINP (Roche Cobas and IDS iSYS) gave similar results. A significant proportional bias was observed between the two automated assays and the Orion radioimmunoassay (RIA) for PINP., Results: Results from other published studies comparing PINP values among these three assays broadly support our findings. Taken together, these results confirm that harmonized PINP measurements exist between the two automated assays (Roche Cobas and IDS iSYS) when the eGFR is > 30 mL/min/1.73m 2 , but a significant bias exists between the Orion RIA and the two automated assays., Conclusion: Therefore, in subjects with normal renal function, PINP results reported by the Roche Cobas and IDS iSYS assays are similar and may be used interchangeably, and similar reference intervals and treatment targets could be applied for the two automated assays. Harmonization between the automated assays and the RIA is potentially possible with the use of common calibrators and the development of a reference method for PINP. This should also help ensure that any new commercial assay developed in the future will attain similar results. IOF and IFCC are committed to working together towards this goal with the cooperation of the reagent manufacturing industry.

Death of a spouse is associated with poorer physical and mental health. We followed all married individuals, born from 1902 to 1942, during the period from 1987 to 2002, and found that widows and widowers had higher risk for hip fracture, compared with still married women and men., Introduction: Spousal bereavement can lead to poorer physical and mental health. We aimed to determine whether married women and men had an elevated risk of hip fracture after death of a spouse., Methods: In a retrospective cohort study, we followed all Swedish married individuals aged 60 to 100 years (n = 1,783,035), from 1987 to 2002. Data are presented as mean with 95% confidence interval (CI)., Results: During the follow-up period, 21,305 hip fractures among widows and 6538 hip fractures among widowers were noted. The hazard ratio (HR) for hip fracture in widows compared with married women was 1.34 (95% CI 1.31 to 1.37) and for widowers compared with married men 1.32 (95% CI 1.29 to 1.35). The HR for hip fracture in the first 6 months after death of a spouse was in widows compared with married women 1.62 (95% CI 1.53 to 1.71) and in widowers compared with married men 1.84 (95% CI 1.68 to 2.03). The elevated risk was especially prominent in young widowers in the age range 60-69 years. During the first 6 months they showed a HR of 2.76 (95% CI 1.66 to 4.58) for a hip fractvure compared with age matched married men. Widows aged 60-69 years showed a HR of 1.59 (95% CI 1.26 to 1.99) compared with age matched married women., Conclusion: Our observation of a higher hip fracture risk in both genders in connection with the death of a spouse indicates a possible effect of bereavement on frailty.

A reduction in hip fracture incidence following population screening might reflect the effectiveness of anti-osteoporosis therapy, behaviour change to reduce falls, or both. This post hoc analysis demonstrates that identifying high hip fracture risk by FRAX was not associated with any alteration in falls risk., Introduction: To investigate whether effectiveness of an osteoporosis screening programme to reduce hip fractures was mediated by modification of falls risk in the screening arm., Methods: The SCOOP study recruited 12,483 women aged 70-85 years, individually randomised to a control (n = 6250) or screening (n = 6233) arm; in the latter, osteoporosis treatment was recommended to women at high risk of hip fracture, while the control arm received usual care. Falls were captured by self-reported questionnaire. We determined the influence of baseline risk factors on future falls, and then examined for differences in falls risk between the randomisation groups, particularly in those at high fracture risk., Results: Women sustaining one or more falls were slightly older at baseline than those remaining falls free during follow-up (mean difference 0.70 years, 95%CI 0.55-0.85, p < 0.001). A higher FRAX 10-year probability of hip fracture was associated with increased likelihood of falling, with fall risk increasing by 1-2% for every 1% increase in hip fracture probability. However, falls risk factors were well balanced between the study arms and, importantly, there was no evidence of a difference in falls occurrence. In particular, there was no evidence of interaction (p = 0.18) between baseline FRAX hip fracture probabilities and falls risk in the two arms, consistent with no impact of screening on falls in women informed to be at high risk of hip fracture., Conclusion: Effectiveness of screening for high FRAX hip fracture probability to reduce hip fracture risk was not mediated by a reduction in falls.

In the large community-based SCOOP trial, systematic fracture risk screening using FRAX ® led to greater use of AOM and greater adherence, in women at high fracture risk, compared with usual care., Introduction: In the SCreening of Older wOmen for Prevention of fracture (SCOOP) trial, we investigated the effect of the screening intervention on subsequent long-term self-reported adherence to anti-osteoporosis medications (AOM)., Methods: SCOOP was a primary care-based UK multicentre trial of screening for fracture risk. A total of 12,483 women (70-85 years) were randomised to either usual NHS care, or assessment using the FRAX ® tool ± dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), with medication recommended for those found to be at high risk of hip fracture. Self-reported AOM use was obtained by postal questionnaires at 6, 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months. Analysis was limited to those who initiated AOM during follow-up. Logistic regression was used to explore baseline determinants of adherence (good ≥ 80%; poor < 80%)., Results: The mean (SD) age of participants was 75.6 (4.2) years, with 6233 randomised to screening and 6250 to the control group. Of those participants identified at high fracture risk in the screening group, 38.2% of those on treatment at 6 months were still treated at 60 months, whereas the corresponding figure for the control group was 21.6%. Older age was associated with poorer adherence (OR per year increase in age 0.96 [95% CI 0.93, 0.99], p = 0.01), whereas history of parental hip fracture was associated with greater rate adherence (OR 1.67 [95% CI 1.23, 2.26], p < 0.01)., Conclusions: Systematic fracture risk screening using FRAX ® leads to greater use of AOM and greater adherence, in women at high fracture risk, compared with usual care.

Guidance is provided in an international setting on the assessment and specific treatment of postmenopausal women at low, high and very high risk of fragility fractures., Introduction: The International Osteoporosis Foundation and European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis published guidance for the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis in 2019. This manuscript seeks to apply this in an international setting, taking additional account of further categorisation of increased risk of fracture, which may inform choice of therapeutic approach., Methods: Clinical perspective and updated literature search., Results: The following areas are reviewed: categorisation of fracture risk and general pharmacological management of osteoporosis., Conclusions: A platform is provided on which specific guidelines can be developed for national use to characterise fracture risk and direct interventions.

Many patients at increased risk of fractures do not take their medication appropriately, resulting in a substantial decrease in the benefits of drug therapy. Improving medication adherence is urgently needed but remains laborious, given the numerous and multidimensional reasons for non-adherence, suggesting the need for measurement-guided, multifactorial and individualized solutions., Introduction: Poor adherence to medications is a major challenge in the treatment of osteoporosis. This paper aimed to provide an overview of the consequences, determinants and potential solutions to poor adherence and persistence to osteoporosis medication., Methods: A working group was organized by the European Society on Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal diseases (ESCEO) to review consequences, determinants and potential solutions to adherence and to make recommendations for practice and further research. A systematic literature review and a face-to-face experts meeting were undertaken., Results: Medication non-adherence is associated with increased risk of fractures, leading to a substantial decrease in the clinical and economic benefits of drug therapy. Reasons for non-adherence are numerous and multidimensional for each patient, depending on the interplay of multiple factors, suggesting the need for multifactorial and individualized solutions. Few interventions have been shown to improve adherence or persistence to osteoporosis treatment. Promising actions include patient education with counselling, adherence monitoring with feedback and dose simplification including flexible dosing regimen. Recommendations for practice and further research were also provided. To adequately manage adherence, it is important to (1) understand the problem (initiation, implementation and/or persistence), (2) to measure adherence and (3) to identify the reason of non-adherence and fix it., Conclusion: These recommendations are intended for clinicians to manage adherence of their patients and to researchers and policy makers to design, facilitate and appropriately use adherence interventions.

A simple question construct regarding number of falls in the previous year, ascertained by a single question, was strongly associated with incident fractures in routine clinical practice using a population-based dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) registry., Introduction: There is conflicting evidence from research cohorts that falls independently increase fracture risk. We examined the independent effects of falls on subsequent fractures in a large clinical registry of bone mineral density (BMD) results for the Province of Manitoba, Canada that has been systematically collecting self-reported falls information since September 1, 2012., Methods: The study population consisted of 24,943 women and men aged 40 years and older (mean age 65.5 ± 10.2 years) with fracture probability assessment (FRAX), self-reported falls for the previous year (categorized as none, 1, 2, or > 3) and fracture outcomes. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95 confidence intervals (CI) for time to fracture were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models., Results: During mean observation time of 2.7 ± 1.0 years, 863 (3.5%) sustained one or more major osteoporotic fractures (MOF), 212 (0.8%) sustained a hip fracture, and 1210 (4.9%) sustained any incident fracture. Compared with no falls in the previous year (referent), there was a gradient of increasing risk for fracture with increasing number of falls (all P < 0.001). Results showed minimal attenuation with covariate adjustment. When adjusted for baseline fracture probability (FRAX score with BMD) the HR for MOF increased from 1.49 (95% CI 1.25-1.78) for one fall to 1.74 (1.33-2.27) for two falls to 2.62 (2.06-3.34) for ≥ 3 falls. HRs were similar for any incident fracture and slightly greater for prediction of hip fracture, reaching 3.41 (95% CI 2.19-5.31) for ≥ 3 previous falls., Conclusions: Self-report number of falls in the previous year is strongly associated with incident fracture risk in the routine clinical practice setting, and this risk is independent of age, sex, BMD, and baseline fracture probability. Moreover, there is dose-response with multiple falls (up to a maximum of 3) conferring greater risk than a single fall.

In this prospective study, half of all falls resulted in injury. Pre-frail adults sustained more injuries, while more frail adults had injuries requiring hospitalization or fractures. Pre-frail adults fell more often when in movement compared with frail adults who fell more often when standing and in indoor public spaces., Purpose: To assess prospectively how fall environment and direction are related to injury among pre-frail and frail adults., Methods: We included 200 community-dwelling adults with a prior fall (pre-frail, mean age 77 years) and 173 adults with acute hip fracture (frail, mean age 84 years; 77% community-dwelling). Falls were prospectively recorded using standardized protocols in monthly intervals, including date, time, fall direction and environment, and injury. We used logistic regression to assess the odds of injury adjusting for age, body mass index (BMI), and gender., Results: We recorded 513 falls and 331 fall-related injuries (64.5%) among the 373 participants. While the fall rate was similar between groups, pre-frail adults had more injuries (71% among pre-frail vs. 56% among frail, p = 0.0004) but a lower incidence of major injuries (9% among pre-frail vs. 27% among frail, p = 0.003). Pre-frail adults fell more often while in movement (84% among pre-frail vs. 55% among frail, p < 0.0001), and frail adults fell more often while standing (26% vs. 15% respectively, p = 0.01). The odds of injury among frail adults was increased 3.3-fold when falling sideways (OR = 3.29, 95% CI = 1.68-6.45) and 2.4-fold when falling in an indoor public space (OR = 2.35, 95% CI = 1.00-5.53), and was reduced when falling at home (OR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.31-0.98). The odds of injury among pre-frail adults was not influenced by environment and was 53% lower when falling backwards (OR = 0.47, 95% CI = 0.26-0.82)., Conclusion: While pre-frail adults sustain more fall-related injuries, frail adults were more likely to sustain major injuries, especially when falling sideways or outside their home.

We compared the utility of the current Iranian guidelines that recommend treatment in women with a T-score ≤ - 2.5 SD with a FRAX-based intervention threshold equivalent to women of average BMI with a prior fragility fracture. Whereas the FRAX-based intervention threshold identified women at high fracture probability, the T-score threshold was less sensitive, and the associated fracture risk decreased markedly with age., Introduction: The fracture risk assessment algorithm FRAX® has been recently calibrated for Iran, but guidance is needed on how to apply fracture probabilities to clinical practice., Methods: The age-specific ten-year probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture were calculated in women with average BMI to determine fracture probabilities at two potential intervention thresholds. The first comprised the age-specific fracture probabilities associated with a femoral neck T-score of - 2.5 SD, in line with current guidelines in Iran. The second approach determined age-specific fracture probabilities that were equivalent to a woman with a prior fragility fracture, without BMD. The parsimonious use of BMD was additionally explored by the computation of upper and lower assessment thresholds for BMD testing., Results: When a BMD T-score ≤ - 2.5 SD was used as an intervention threshold, FRAX probabilities in women aged 50 years was approximately two-fold higher than in women of the same age but with an average BMD and no risk factors. The relative increase in risk associated with the BMD threshold decreased progressively with age such that, at the age of 80 years or more, a T-score of - 2.5 SD was actually protective. The 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture by age, equivalent to women with a previous fracture rose with age from 4.9% at the age of 50 years to 17%, at the age of 80 years, and identified women at increased risk at all ages., Conclusion: Intervention thresholds based on BMD alone do not effectively target women at high fracture risk, particularly in the elderly. In contrast, intervention thresholds based on fracture probabilities equivalent to a "fracture threshold" target women at high fracture risk.

Given the widespread practice of recommending drug holidays, we reviewed the impact of medication discontinuation of two common anti-osteoporosis therapies (bisphosphonates and denosumab). Trial evidence suggests the risk of new clinical fractures, and vertebral fracture increases when osteoporosis treatment with bisphosphonates or denosumab is stopped., Introduction: The aim of this paper was to review the available literature to assess what evidence exists to inform clinical decision-making with regard to drug holidays following treatment with bisphosphonates (BiP) or denosumab., Methods: Systematic review., Results: Differing pharmacokinetics lead to varying outcomes on stopping therapy. Prospective and retrospective analyses report that the risk of new clinical fractures was 20-40% higher in subjects who stopped BiP treatment, and vertebral fracture risk was approximately doubled. Rapid bone loss has been well described following denosumab discontinuation with an incidence of multiple vertebral fractures around 5%. Studies have not identified risk factors for fracture after stopping treatment other than those that provide an indication for treatment (e.g. prior fracture and low BMD). Studies that considered long-term continuation did not identify increased fracture risk, and reported only very low rates of adverse skeletal events such as atypical femoral fracture., Conclusions: The view that patients on long-term treatment with bisphosphonates or denosumab should always be offered a drug holiday is not supported by the existing evidence. Different pharmacokinetic properties for different therapies require different strategies to manage drug intermission. In contrast, long-term treatment with anti-resorptives is not associated with increased risk of fragility fractures and skeletal adverse events remain rare.

In a population-based study of older Swedish women, we investigated the proportion of women treated with osteoporosis medication in relation to the proportion of women eligible for treatment according to national guidelines. We found that only a minority (22%) of those eligible for treatment were prescribed osteoporosis medication., Introduction: Fracture rates increase markedly in old age and the incidence of hip fracture in Swedish women is among the highest in the world. Although effective pharmacological treatment is available, treatment rates remain low. Limited data are available regarding treatment rates in relation to fracture risk in a population-based setting in older women. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the proportion of older women eligible for treatment according to Swedish Osteoporosis Society (SvOS) guidelines., Methods: A population-based study was performed in Gothenburg in 3028 older women (77.8 ± 1.6 years [mean ± SD]). Bone mineral density of the spine and hip was measured with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Clinical risk factors for fracture and data regarding osteoporosis medication was collected with self-administered questionnaires. Logistic regression was used to evaluate whether the 10-year probability of sustaining a major osteoporotic fracture (FRAX-score) or its components predicted treatment with osteoporosis medication., Results: For the 2983 women with complete data, 1107 (37%) women were eligible for treatment using SvOS criteria. The proportion of these women receiving treatment was 21.8%. For women eligible for treatment according to SvOS guidelines, strong predictors for receiving osteoporosis medication were glucocorticoid treatment (odds ratio (95% CI) 2.88 (1.80-4.59)) and prior fracture (2.58 (1.84-3.61))., Conclusion: This study demonstrates that a substantial proportion of older Swedish women should be considered for osteoporosis medication given their high fracture risk, but that only a minority receives treatment.

Guidance is provided in a European setting on the assessment and treatment of postmenopausal women at risk from fractures due to osteoporosis., Introduction: The International Osteoporosis Foundation and European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis published guidance for the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis in 2013. This manuscript updates these in a European setting., Methods: Systematic reviews were updated., Results: The following areas are reviewed: the role of bone mineral density measurement for the diagnosis of osteoporosis and assessment of fracture risk; general and pharmacological management of osteoporosis; monitoring of treatment; assessment of fracture risk; case-finding strategies; investigation of patients; health economics of treatment. The update includes new information on the evaluation of bone microstructure evaluation in facture risk assessment, the role of FRAX® and Fracture Liaison Services in secondary fracture prevention, long-term effects on fracture risk of dietary intakes, and increased fracture risk on stopping drug treatment., Conclusions: A platform is provided on which specific guidelines can be developed for national use.

Economic evaluations are increasingly used to assess the value of health interventions, but variable quality and heterogeneity limit the use of these evaluations by decision-makers. These recommendations provide guidance for the design, conduct, and reporting of economic evaluations in osteoporosis to improve their transparency, comparability, and methodologic standards., Introduction: This paper aims to provide recommendations for the conduct of economic evaluations in osteoporosis in order to improve their transparency, comparability, and methodologic standards., Methods: A working group was convened by the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis to make recommendations for the design, conduct, and reporting of economic evaluations in osteoporosis, to define an osteoporosis-specific reference case to serve a minimum standard for all economic analyses in osteoporosis, to discuss methodologic challenges and initiate a call for research. A literature review, a face-to-face meeting in New York City (including 11 experts), and a review/approval by a larger group of experts worldwide (including 23 experts in total) were conducted., Results: Recommendations on the type of economic evaluation, methods for economic evaluation, modeling aspects, base-case analysis and population, excess mortality, fracture costs and disutility, treatment characteristics, and model validation were provided. Recommendations for reporting economic evaluations in osteoporosis were also made and an osteoporosis-specific checklist was designed that includes items to report when performing an economic evaluation in osteoporosis. Further, 12 minimum criteria for economic evaluations in osteoporosis were identified and 12 methodologic challenges and need for further research were discussed., Conclusion: While the working group acknowledges challenges and the need for further research, these recommendations are intended to supplement general and national guidelines for economic evaluations, improve transparency, quality, and comparability of economic evaluations in osteoporosis, and maintain methodologic standards to increase their use by decision-makers.