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In the context of "dual carbon", the aluminum smelling industry is facing enormous pressure to reduce emissions. This paper takes an electrolytic aluminum enterprise n Shanxi province as an example to calculate the carbon emissions of each ink of the enterprise in 2021 and identify the mam factors that affect the carbon emission reduction of the electrolytic aluminum industry. Using scenario analysis method to predict the adjustment of power structure, upgrading of low-carbon electrolytic aluminum technology, and application of recycled aluminum in Shanxi province from 2021 to 2030. Establish a multi factor analysis model for electrolytic aluminum carbon emissions, and explore the impact of various control variables on reducing carbon emissions per ton of aluminum for enterprises in benchmark and policy scenarios. The results show that changes in the power structure have the greatest contribution to the greenhouse gas emissions reduction of the enterprise, with emissions reductions accounting for 31. 63% of the total emissions under the 2030 baseline scenario and 40. 66% of the total emissions under the policy scenario; When coupled with changes in power structure and the proportion of recycled aluminum, the emission reduction effect Is most significant, with the emission reduction accounting for 67.82% of the total emissions in the 2030 policy scenario; Under the three coupling situation, the carbon emissions of the enterprise gradually tend to zero. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]