Search

The fate of tropical forests under climate change is unclear as a result, in part, of the uncertainty in projected changes in precipitation and in the ability of vegetation models to capture the effects of drought-induced mortality on aboveground biomass (AGB). We evaluated the ability of a terrestrial biosphere model with demography and hydrodynamics (Ecosystem Demography, ED2-hydro) to simulate AGB and mortality of four tropical tree plant functional types (PFTs) that operate along light- and water-use axes. Model predictions were compared with observations of canopy trees at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. We then assessed the implications of eight hypothetical precipitation scenarios, including increased annual precipitation, reduced inter-annual variation, El Niño-related droughts and drier wet or dry seasons, on AGB and functional diversity of the model forest. When forced with observed meteorology, ED2-hydro predictions capture multiple BCI benchmarks. ED2-hydro predicts that AGB will be sustained under lower rainfall via shifts in the functional composition of the forest, except under the drier dry-season scenario. These results support the hypothesis that inter-annual variation in mean and seasonal precipitation promotes the coexistence of functionally diverse PFTs because of the relative differences in mortality rates. If the hydroclimate becomes chronically drier or wetter, functional evenness related to drought tolerance may decline.

Summary: Drought disproportionately affects larger trees in tropical forests, but implications for forest composition and carbon (C) cycling in relation to dry season intensity remain poorly understood. In order to characterize how C cycling is shaped by tree size and drought adaptations and how these patterns relate to spatial and temporal variation in water deficit, we analyze data from three forest dynamics plots spanning a moisture gradient in Panama that have experienced El Niño droughts. At all sites, aboveground C cycle contributions peaked below 50‐cm stem diameter, with stems ≥ 50 cm accounting for on average 59% of live aboveground biomass, 45% of woody productivity and 49% of woody mortality. The dominance of drought‐avoidance strategies increased interactively with stem diameter and dry season intensity. Although size‐related C cycle contributions did not vary systematically across the moisture gradient under nondrought conditions, woody mortality of larger trees was disproportionately elevated under El Niño drought stress. Thus, large (> 50 cm) stems, which strongly mediate but do not necessarily dominate C cycling, have drought adaptations that compensate for their more challenging hydraulic environment, particularly in drier climates. However, these adaptations do not fully buffer the effects of severe drought, and increased large tree mortality dominates ecosystem‐level drought responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]