Search

Although the national obesity epidemic has been well documented, less is known about obesity at the U.S. state level. Current estimates are based on body measures reported by persons themselves that underestimate the prevalence of obesity, especially severe obesity.We developed methods to correct for self-reporting bias and to estimate state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories of body-mass index (BMI). BMI data reported by 6,264,226 adults (18 years of age or older) who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (1993-1994 and 1999-2016) were obtained and corrected for quantile-specific self-reporting bias with the use of measured data from 57,131 adults who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We fitted multinomial regressions for each state and subgroup to estimate the prevalence of four BMI categories from 1990 through 2030: underweight or normal weight (BMI [the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters],25), overweight (25 to30), moderate obesity (30 to35), and severe obesity (≥35). We evaluated the accuracy of our approach using data from 1990 through 2010 to predict 2016 outcomes.The findings from our approach suggest with high predictive accuracy that by 2030 nearly 1 in 2 adults will have obesity (48.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 47.7 to 50.1), and the prevalence will be higher than 50% in 29 states and not below 35% in any state. Nearly 1 in 4 adults is projected to have severe obesity by 2030 (24.2%; 95% CI, 22.9 to 25.5), and the prevalence will be higher than 25% in 25 states. We predict that, nationally, severe obesity is likely to become the most common BMI category among women (27.6%; 95% CI, 26.1 to 29.2), non-Hispanic black adults (31.7%; 95% CI, 29.9 to 33.4), and low-income adults (31.7%; 95% CI, 30.2 to 33.2).Our analysis indicates that the prevalence of adult obesity and severe obesity will continue to increase nationwide, with large disparities across states and demographic subgroups. (Funded by the JPB Foundation.).

Although the current obesity epidemic has been well documented in children and adults, less is known about long-term risks of adult obesity for a given child at his or her present age and weight. We developed a simulation model to estimate the risk of adult obesity at the age of 35 years for the current population of children in the United States.We pooled height and weight data from five nationally representative longitudinal studies totaling 176,720 observations from 41,567 children and adults. We simulated growth trajectories across the life course and adjusted for secular trends. We created 1000 virtual populations of 1 million children through the age of 19 years that were representative of the 2016 population of the United States and projected their trajectories in height and weight up to the age of 35 years. Severe obesity was defined as a body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of 35 or higher in adults and 120% or more of the 95th percentile in children.Given the current level of childhood obesity, the models predicted that a majority of today's children (57.3%; 95% uncertainly interval [UI], 55.2 to 60.0) will be obese at the age of 35 years, and roughly half of the projected prevalence will occur during childhood. Our simulations indicated that the relative risk of adult obesity increased with age and BMI, from 1.17 (95% UI, 1.09 to 1.29) for overweight 2-year-olds to 3.10 (95% UI, 2.43 to 3.65) for 19-year-olds with severe obesity. For children with severe obesity, the chance they will no longer be obese at the age of 35 years fell from 21.0% (95% UI, 7.3 to 47.3) at the age of 2 years to 6.1% (95% UI, 2.1 to 9.9) at the age of 19 years.On the basis of our simulation models, childhood obesity and overweight will continue to be a major health problem in the United States. Early development of obesity predicted obesity in adulthood, especially for children who were severely obese. (Funded by the JPB Foundation and others.).

From the New Balance Foundation Obe- sity Prevention Center (C.B.E., D.S.L.) and the Clinical Research Center (H.A.F., T.A.A., S.K.O.), Boston Children's Hospi - tal, Boston; the Institute for Community Health, Cambridge (V.R.C.); and the De- partment of Society, Human Develop- ment, and Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston (S.L.G.) — all in Massachusetts. Address reprint requests to Dr. Ludwig at the New Balance Foun- dation Obesity Prevention Center, Bos- ton Children's Hospital, 300 Longwood Ave., Boston, MA 02115, or at david A B S T R AC T Background Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages may cause excessive weight gain. We aimed to assess the effect on weight gain of an intervention that included the provi- sion of noncaloric beverages at home for overweight and obese adolescents. Methods We randomly assigned 224 overweight and obese adolescents who regularly con- sumed sugar-sweetened beverages to experimental and control groups. The experi- mental group received a 1-year intervention designed to decrease consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages, with follow-up for an additional year without interven- tion. We hypothesized that the experimental group would gain weight at a slower rate than the control group. Results Retention rates were 97% at 1 year and 93% at 2 years. Reported consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages was similar at baseline in the experimental and control groups (1.7 servings per day), declined to nearly 0 in the experimental group at 1 year, and remained lower in the experimental group than in the control group at 2 years. The primary outcome, the change in mean body-mass index (BMI, the weight in ki- lograms divided by the square of the height in meters) at 2 years, did not differ sig- nificantly between the two groups (change in experimental group minus change in control group, −0.3; P = 0.46). At 1 year, however, there were significant between- group differences for changes in BMI (−0.57, P = 0.045) and weight (−1.9 kg, P = 0.04). We found evidence of effect modification according to ethnic group at 1 year (P = 0.04) and 2 years (P = 0.01). In a prespecified analysis according to ethnic group, among Hispanic participants (27 in the experimental group and 19 in the control group), there was a significant between-group difference in the change in BMI at 1 year (−1.79, P = 0.007) and 2 years (−2.35, P = 0.01), but not among non-Hispanic partici- pants (P>0.35 at years 1 and 2). The change in body fat as a percentage of total weight did not differ significantly between groups at 2 years (−0.5%, P = 0.40). There were no adverse events related to study participation. Conclusions Among overweight and obese adolescents, the increase in BMI was smaller in the experimental group than in the control group after a 1-year intervention designed to reduce consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages, but not at the 2-year follow- up (the prespecified primary outcome). (Funded by the National Institute of Diabe- tes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00381160.)

Background and Methods Overweight in adolescents may have deleterious effects on their subsequent self-esteem, social and economic characteristics, and physical health. We studied the relation between overweight and subsequent educational attainment, marital status, household income, and self-esteem in a nationally representative sample of 10,039 randomly selected young people who were 16 to 24 years old in 1981. Follow-up data were obtained in 1988 for 65 to 79 percent of the original cohort, depending on the variable studied. The characteristics of the subjects who had been overweight in 1981 were compared with those for young people with asthma, musculoskeletal abnormalities, and other chronic health conditions. Overweight was defined as a body-mass index above the 95th percentile for age and sex. Results In 1981, 370 of the subjects were overweight. Seven years later, women who had been overweight had completed fewer years of school (0.3 year less; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.1 to 0.6; P = 0.009...

The prevalence of childhood obesity in the United States has increased rapidly to historically high levels over recent decades and has begun to plateau in some communities and states. Given such a high prevalence, what are the risk factors that best predict incident obesity in later childhood? What are the contributory characteristics resulting in obesity? Can children at highest risk be targeted accurately for early intervention? In this issue of the Journal, Cunningham et al.1 use a unique, nationally representative database to focus on the incidence of obesity and provide a useful perspective on early predictors of obesity from kindergarten . . .

Although the risk of very low birth weight (less than 1500 g) is more than twice as high among blacks as among whites in the United States, the clinical conditions associated with this disparity remain poorly explored.We reviewed the medical records of over 98 percent of all infants weighing 500 to 1499 g who were born in Boston during the period 1980 through 1985 (687 infants), in St. Louis in 1985 and 1986 (397 infants), and in two health districts in Mississippi in 1984 and 1985 (215 infants). The medical records of the infants' mothers were also reviewed. These data were linked to birth-certificate files. During the study periods, there were 49,196 live births in Boston, 16,232 in St. Louis, and 16,332 in the Mississippi districts. The relative risk of very low birth weight among black infants as compared with white infants ranged from 2.3 to 3.2 in the three areas. The higher proportion of black infants with very low birth weights was related to an elevated risk in their mothers of major conditions associated with very low birth weight, primarily chorioamnionitis or premature rupture of the amniotic membrane (associated with 38.0 percent of the excess proportion of black infants with very low birth weights [95 percent confidence interval, 31.3 to 45.4 percent]); idiopathic preterm labor (20.9 percent of the excess [95 percent confidence interval, 16.0 to 26.4 percent]); hypertensive disorders (12.3 percent [95 percent confidence interval, 8.6 to 16.6]); and hemorrhage (9.8 percent [95 percent confidence interval, 5.5 to 13.5]).The higher proportion of black infants with very low birth weights is associated with a greater frequency of all major maternal conditions precipitating delivery among black women. Reductions in the disparity in birth weight between blacks and whites are not likely to result from any single clinical intervention but, rather, from comprehensive preventive strategies.

In an attempt to contain costs, 27 Medicaid programs have implemented patient-level payment limits for medications, but the effects of these restrictions on quality of care, costs, and health status remain largely unknown. We measured the effect of one state's limit of three paid prescriptions per month and its replacement a year later by a $1 copayment. Using data on 48 months of claims in the study state (New Hampshire) and a comparison state (New Jersey), we employed time-series analysis to evaluate patient-level changes in the number of prescriptions filled for 16 drugs that varied in their clinical importance and cost. Among 10,734 continuously enrolled patients, the limit of three paid prescriptions per month caused a sudden, sustained drop of 30 percent in the number of prescriptions filled (from 1.10 to 0.77 prescriptions per patient per month); no change was observed in the comparison state. The 860 recipients of multiple drugs, who were predominantly female and elderly or disabled, were...