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Importance: Many women report inadequate symptom control after sacral neuromodulation (SNM), despite 50% reduction in urgency incontinence episodes (UUIE) after test stimulation., Objective: To determine the ideal percent UUIE reduction after test stimulation that predicts 24-month success., Study Design: Using data from a multicenter SNM trial, we constructed receiver operating characteristic curves to identify an ideal threshold of percent UUIE reduction after test stimulation. We defined 24-month success as Patient Global Impression of Improvement of "very much better" to "better." We compared predictive accuracy of two models predicting success: (1) percent UUIE reduction alone and (2) with baseline characteristics., Results: Of 149 women (median [IQR] baseline daily UUIE 4.7 [3.7, 6.0]), the ideal threshold for 24-month success was 72% (95% confidence interval 64,76%) UUIE reduction with accuracy 0.54 (0.42, 0.66), sensitivity 0.71 (0.56, 0.86) and specificity 0.27 (0.05, 0.55). The accuracy of the 50% reduction threshold was 0.60 (0.49, 0.71), sensitivity 0.95 (0.88, 1.0) and specificity 0.04 (0.0, 0.12). Percent reduction in UUIE was not better than chance in predicting 24-month success (concordance index [c-index] 0.47 [0.46, 0.62]); adding age, body mass index, diabetes mellitus and visual or hearing impairment the c-index was 0.68 (0.61, 0.78)., Conclusions: Among women who received an internal pulse generator (IPG) due to ≥50% UUIE reduction after test stimulation, we found no ideal threshold that better predicted 24-month success. Percent reduction in UUIE after test stimulation poorly predicts 24-month success with or without clinical factors. Given this, re-evaluating how we determine who should receive an IPG is needed., (© 2024 The Author(s). Neurourology and Urodynamics published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Aims: Develop models to predict outcomes after intradetrusor injection of 100 or 200 units of onabotulinumtoxinA in women with non-neurogenic urgency urinary incontinence (UUI)., Methods: Models were developed using 307 women from two randomized trials assessing efficacy of onabotulinumtoxinA for non-neurogenic UUI. Cox, linear and logistic regression models were fit using: (1) time to recurrence over 12 months, (2) change from baseline daily UUI episodes (UUIE) at 6 months, and (3) need for self-catheterization over 6 months. Model discrimination of Cox and logistic regression models was calculated using c-index. Mean absolute error determined accuracy of the linear model. Calibration was demonstrated using calibration curves. All models were internally validated using bootstrapping., Results: Median time to recurrence was 6 (interquartile range [IQR]: 2-12) months. Increasing age, 200 units of onabotulinumtoxinA, higher body mass index (BMI) and baseline UUIE were associated with decreased time to recurrence. The c-index was 0.63 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.59, 0.67). Median change in daily UUIE from baseline at 6 months was -3.5 (IQR: -5.0, -2.3). Increasing age, lower baseline UUIE, 200 units of onabotulinumtoxinA, higher BMI and IIQ-SF were associated with less improvement in UUIE. The mean absolute error predicting change in UUIE was accurate to 1.6 (95% CI: 1.5, 1.7) UUI episodes. The overall rate of self-catheterization was 17.6% (95% CI: 13.6%-22.4%). Lower BMI, 200 units of onabotulinumtoxinA, increased baseline postvoid residual and maximum capacity were associated with higher risk of self-catheterization. The c-index was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.61, 0.76). The three calculators are available at http://riskcalc.duke.edu., Conclusions: After external validation, these models will assist clinicians in providing more accurate estimates of expected treatment outcomes after onabotulinumtoxinA for non-neurogenic UUI in women., (© 2021 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)