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Without a cure, vaccine, or proven long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2, test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) strategies present a promising tool to contain its spread. For any TTI strategy, however, mitigation is challenged by pre- and asymptomatic transmission, TTI-avoiders, and undetected spreaders, which strongly contribute to "hidden" infection chains. Here, we study a semi-analytical model and identify two tipping points between controlled and uncontrolled spread: (1) the behavior-driven reproduction number [Formula: see text] of the hidden chains becomes too large to be compensated by the TTI capabilities, and (2) the number of new infections exceeds the tracing capacity. Both trigger a self-accelerating spread. We investigate how these tipping points depend on challenges like limited cooperation, missing contacts, and imperfect isolation. Our results suggest that TTI alone is insufficient to contain an otherwise unhindered spread of SARS-CoV-2, implying that complementary measures like social distancing and improved hygiene remain necessary.

A common approach to study nucleation rates is the estimation of free-energy barriers. This usually requires knowledge about the shape of the forming droplet, a task that becomes notoriously difficult in macromolecular setups starting with a proper definition of the cluster boundary. Here we demonstrate a shape-free determination of the free energy for temperature-driven cluster formation in particle as well as polymer systems. Combined with rigorous results on equilibrium droplet formation, this allows for a well-defined finite-size scaling analysis of the effective interfacial free energy at a fixed density. We first verify the theoretical predictions for the formation of a liquid droplet in a supersaturated particle gas by generalized-ensemble Monte Carlo simulations of a Lennard-Jones system. Going one step further, we then generalize this approach to cluster formation in a dilute polymer solution. Our results suggest an analogy with particle condensation, when the macromolecules are interpreted as extended particles.