Search

Whole-genome sequencing can be used to estimate subclonal populations in tumours and this intra-tumoural heterogeneity is linked to clinical outcomes. Many algorithms have been developed for subclonal reconstruction, but their variabilities and consistencies are largely unknown. We evaluate sixteen pipelines for reconstructing the evolutionary histories of 293 localized prostate cancers from single samples, and eighteen pipelines for the reconstruction of 10 tumours with multi-region sampling. We show that predictions of subclonal architecture and timing of somatic mutations vary extensively across pipelines. Pipelines show consistent types of biases, with those incorporating SomaticSniper and Battenberg preferentially predicting homogenous cancer cell populations and those using MuTect tending to predict multiple populations of cancer cells. Subclonal reconstructions using multi-region sampling confirm that single-sample reconstructions systematically underestimate intra-tumoural heterogeneity, predicting on average fewer than half of the cancer cell populations identified by multi-region sequencing. Overall, these biases suggest caution in interpreting specific architectures and subclonal variants.

The type and genomic context of cancer mutations depend on their causes. These causes have been characterized using signatures that represent mutation types that co-occur in the same tumours. However, it remains unclear how mutation processes change during cancer evolution due to the lack of reliable methods to reconstruct evolutionary trajectories of mutational signature activity. Here, as part of the ICGC/TCGA Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium, which aggregated whole-genome sequencing data from 2658 cancers across 38 tumour types, we present TrackSig, a new method that reconstructs these trajectories using optimal, joint segmentation and deconvolution of mutation type and allele frequencies from a single tumour sample. In simulations, we find TrackSig has a 3-5% activity reconstruction error, and 12% false detection rate. It outperforms an aggressive baseline in situations with branching evolution, CNA gain, and neutral mutations. Applied to data from 2658 tumours and 38 cancer types, TrackSig permits pan-cancer insight into evolutionary changes in mutational processes.

In cancer, the primary tumour's organ of origin and histopathology are the strongest determinants of its clinical behaviour, but in 3% of cases a patient presents with a metastatic tumour and no obvious primary. Here, as part of the ICGC/TCGA Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium, we train a deep learning classifier to predict cancer type based on patterns of somatic passenger mutations detected in whole genome sequencing (WGS) of 2606 tumours representing 24 common cancer types produced by the PCAWG Consortium. Our classifier achieves an accuracy of 91% on held-out tumor samples and 88% and 83% respectively on independent primary and metastatic samples, roughly double the accuracy of trained pathologists when presented with a metastatic tumour without knowledge of the primary. Surprisingly, adding information on driver mutations reduced accuracy. Our results have clinical applicability, underscore how patterns of somatic passenger mutations encode the state of the cell of origin, and can inform future strategies to detect the source of circulating tumour DNA.