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Abstract Pronounced spatial disparities in heatwave trends are bound up with a diversity of atmospheric signals with complex variations, including different phases and wavenumbers. However, assessing their relationships quantitatively remains a challenging problem. Here, we use a network-searching approach to identify the strengths of heatwave-related atmospheric teleconnections (AT) with ERA5 reanalysis data. This way, we quantify the close links between heatwave intensity and AT in the Northern Hemisphere. Approximately half of the interannual variability of heatwaves is explained and nearly 80% of the zonally asymmetric trend signs are estimated correctly by the AT changes in the mid-latitudes. We also uncover that the likelihood of extremely hot summers has increased sharply by a factor of 4.5 after 2000 over areas with enhanced AT, but remained almost unchanged over the areas with attenuated AT. Furthermore, reproducing Eastern European heatwave trends among various models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 largely depends on the simulated Eurasian AT changes, highlighting the potentially significant impact of AT shifts on the simulation and projection of heatwaves.

Significant regional disparities exist in the time left to prepare for unprecedented drought and how much we can buy time depending on climate scenarios. Specific regions pass this timing by the middle of 21st century even with stringent mitigation.

The authors here model how water stress would be affected either by biomass plantations combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) in a strong climate mitigation scenario (1.5 °C warming in 2100) or by climate impacts in a strong climate change scenario (3 °C warming in 2100).

Impact models projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here the authors test systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions.

Climate oscillations such as El Niño Southern Oscillation may impact global crop production. Here, the authors, using a unified framework of multiple climate oscillations, find that from 1961 to 2010 over two-thirds of the global cropland is located where crop productivity is influenced by climate oscillations.

Sustainable development goals for water use and food production are in conflict, but this could be reduced by proper water management. Here, violations of global environmental flow requirements for rivers are quantified and related to reconciliation potentials in irrigated and rainfed agriculture.