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6 results on '"Christian Folberth"'

1. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Author

Joshua E. Cinner, Iain R. Caldwell, Lauric Thiault, John Ben, Julia L. Blanchard, Marta Coll, Amy Diedrich, Tyler D. Eddy, Jason D. Everett, Christian Folberth, Didier Gascuel, Jerome Guiet, Georgina G. Gurney, Ryan F. Heneghan, Jonas Jägermeyr, Narriman Jiddawi, Rachael Lahari, John Kuange, Wenfeng Liu, Olivier Maury, Christoph Müller, Camilla Novaglio, Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, Colleen M. Petrik, Ando Rabearisoa, Derek P. Tittensor, Andrew Wamukota, and Richard Pollnac

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Responses of agriculture and fisheries to climate change are interlinked, yet rarely studied together. Here, the authors analyse more than 3000 households from 5 tropical countries and forecast mid-century climate change impacts, finding that communities with higher fishery dependence and lower socioeconomic status communities face greater losses.

Published
2022
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2. Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield

Author

Xuhui Wang, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliot, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Philippe Ciais, Jonas Jägermeyr, James Gerber, Patrice Dumas, Chenzhi Wang, Hui Yang, Laurent Li, Delphine Deryng, Christian Folberth, Wenfeng Liu, David Makowski, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Erwin Schmid, Sujong Jeong, Feng Zhou, and Shilong Piao

Subjects
Science
Abstract

There are big uncertainties in the contribution of irrigation to crop yields. Here, the authors use Bayesian model averaging to combine statistical and process-based models and quantify the contribution of irrigation for wheat and maize yields, finding that irrigation alone cannot close yield gaps for a large fraction of global rainfed agriculture.

Published
2021
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3. State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

Author

Jacob Schewe, Simon N. Gosling, Christopher Reyer, Fang Zhao, Philippe Ciais, Joshua Elliott, Louis Francois, Veronika Huber, Heike K. Lotze, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Robert Vautard, Yoshihide Wada, Lutz Breuer, Matthias Büchner, David A. Carozza, Jinfeng Chang, Marta Coll, Delphine Deryng, Allard de Wit, Tyler D. Eddy, Christian Folberth, Katja Frieler, Andrew D. Friend, Dieter Gerten, Lukas Gudmundsson, Naota Hanasaki, Akihiko Ito, Nikolay Khabarov, Hyungjun Kim, Peter Lawrence, Catherine Morfopoulos, Christoph Müller, Hannes Müller Schmied, René Orth, Sebastian Ostberg, Yadu Pokhrel, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Gen Sakurai, Yusuke Satoh, Erwin Schmid, Tobias Stacke, Jeroen Steenbeek, Jörg Steinkamp, Qiuhong Tang, Hanqin Tian, Derek P. Tittensor, Jan Volkholz, Xuhui Wang, and Lila Warszawski

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Impact models projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here the authors test systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions.

Published
2019
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4. Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models

Author

Bernhard Schauberger, Sotirios Archontoulis, Almut Arneth, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Joshua Elliott, Christian Folberth, Nikolay Khabarov, Christoph Müller, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Erwin Schmid, Xuhui Wang, Wolfram Schlenker, and Katja Frieler

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Future agricultural productivity is threatened by high temperatures. Here, using 9 crop models, Schaubergeret al. find that yield losses due to temperatures >30 °C are captured by current models where yield losses by mild heat stress occur mainly due to water stress and can be buffered by irrigation.

Published
2017
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5. Uncertainty in soil data can outweigh climate impact signals in global crop yield simulations

Author

Christian Folberth, Rastislav Skalský, Elena Moltchanova, Juraj Balkovič, Ligia B. Azevedo, Michael Obersteiner, and Marijn van der Velde

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Global gridded crop models are increasingly used to assess climate change impacts on food production. Here, the authors assess crop yield uncertainty associated with soil data input, reporting that soil type strongly influences yield estimates, and may either buffer or amplify climate-related impacts.

Published
2016
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6. Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change

Author

Thomas A. M. Pugh, Stefan Olin, Christian Folberth, Delphine Deryng, Erwin Schmid, Joshua Elliott, Almut Arneth, and Christoph Müller

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Yield (finance), Science, General Physics and Astronomy, Climate change, 01 natural sciences, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Article, Crop, ddc:550, Production (economics), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, Multidisciplinary, Land use, business.industry, Agroforestry, Crop yield, General Chemistry, 15. Life on land, Earth sciences, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Food processing, Environmental science, business, 010606 plant biology & botany
Abstract

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand., Simulations of the impact of future climate change on crop yield vary considerably. Here, the authors use a climate analogue approach to estimate the response of maximum attainable yield to climate change and predict that large shifts in land use and crop choice would be required to meet demand.

Published
2016

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