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An international collection of Staphylococcus aureus of clonal complex (CC) 398 from diverse hosts spanning all continents and a 30 year-period is studied based on whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data. The collection consists of publicly available genomic data from 2994 strains and 134 recently sequenced Swiss methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) CC398 strains. A time-calibrated phylogeny reveals the presence of distinct phylogroups present in Asia, North and South America and Europe. European MRSA diverged from methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) at the beginning of the 1950s. Two major European phylogroups (EP4 and EP5), which diverged approximately 1974, are the main drivers of MRSA CC398 spread in Europe. Within EP5, an emergent MRSA lineage spreading among the European horse population (EP5-Leq) diverged approximately 1996 from the pig lineage (EP5-Lpg), and also contains human-related strains. EP5-Leq is characterized by staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) IVa and spa type t011 (CC398-IVa-t011), and EP5-Lpg by CC398-SCCmecVc-t011. The lineage-specific antibiotic resistance and virulence gene patterns are mostly mediated by the acquisition of mobile genetic elements like SCCmec, S. aureus Genomic Islands (SaGIs), prophages and transposons. Different combinations of virulence factors are present on S. aureus pathogenicity islands (SaPIs), and novel antimicrobial resistance gene containing elements are associated with certain lineages expanding in Europe. This WGS-based analysis reveals the actual evolutionary trajectory and epidemiological trend of the international MRSA CC398 population considering host, temporal, geographical and molecular factors. It provides a baseline for global WGS-based One-Health studies of adaptive evolution of MRSA CC398 as well as for local outbreak investigations. Authors perform a whole genome sequencing-based analysis of an international MRSA CC398 population, revealing the evolutionary trajectory and epidemiological trend considering host, temporal, geographical and molecular factors as well as lineage-associated mobile genetic elements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canopy openings are increasing in Europe's forests, yet the contributions of anthropogenic and ecological agents of disturbance to this increase remain debated. Here we attribute the root cause of all stand-replacing canopy disturbances identified for Europe in the period 1986–2020 from Landsat data (417,000 km²), distinguishing between planned and unplanned canopy openings (i.e., disturbance by human land use versus by wind, bark beetles, and wildfire). We show that canopy openings by humans dominate the European forest disturbance regime, accounting for 82% of the area disturbed. Both planned and unplanned canopy openings increased in the early 21st century (+24% and +30% relative to the late 20th century). Their changes are linked, with simultaneous increases in planned and unplanned canopy openings on 68% of Europe's forest area. We conclude that an important direction for tackling disturbance change in policy and management is to break the link between planned and unplanned canopy openings in Europe's forests. Forest canopy openings may be caused by planned human intervention or by drivers such as fire, wind disturbance and pest outbreaks. Here, the authors present a high-resolution map and attribution analysis showing that planned and unplanned canopy openings often co-occur in European forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global energy transition relies increasingly on lithium-ion batteries for electric transportation and renewable energy integration. Given the highly concentrated supply chain of battery materials, importing regions have a strategic imperative to reduce their reliance on battery material imports through, e.g., battery recycling or reuse. We investigate the potential of vehicle-to-grid and second-life batteries to reduce resource use by displacing new stationary batteries dedicated to grid storage. Based on dynamic material flow analysis, we show that equipping around 50% of electric vehicles with vehicle-to-grid or reusing 40% of electric vehicle batteries for second life each have the potential to fully cover the European Union's need for stationary storage by 2040. This could reduce total primary material demand from 2020–2050 by up to 7.5% and 1.5%, respectively, which could ease geopolitical risks and increase the European Union's energy and material security. Any surplus capacity could be used as a strategic reserve to increase resilience in the face of emergencies such as blackouts or adverse geo-political events. Europe is becoming increasingly dependent on battery material imports. Here, authors show that electric vehicle batteries could fully cover Europe's need for stationary battery storage by 2040, through either vehicle-to-grid or second-life-batteries, and reduce battery material demand by up to 7.5%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land degradation is a complex socio-environmental threat, which generally occurs as multiple concurrent pathways that remain largely unexplored in Europe. Here we present an unprecedented analysis of land multi-degradation in 40 continental countries, using twelve dataset-based processes that were modelled as land degradation convergence and combination pathways in Europe's agricultural (and arable) environments. Using a Land Multi-degradation Index, we find that up to 27%, 35% and 22% of continental agricultural (~2 million km2) and arable (~1.1 million km2) lands are currently threatened by one, two, and three drivers of degradation, while 10–11% of pan-European agricultural/arable landscapes are cumulatively affected by four and at least five concurrent processes. We also explore the complex pattern of spatially interacting processes, emphasizing the major combinations of land degradation pathways across continental and national boundaries. Our results will enable policymakers to develop knowledge-based strategies for land degradation mitigation and other critical European sustainable development goals. This study presents an unprecedented analysis of agricultural land multi-degradation in 40 European countries, using twelve dataset-based processes that were modelled as land degradation convergence and combination pathways across the continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future flood risk assessments typically focus on changing hazard conditions as a result of climate change, where flood exposure is assumed to remain static or develop according to exogenous scenarios. However, this study presents a method to project future riverine flood risk in Europe by simulating population growth in floodplains, where households' settlement location decisions endogenously depend on environmental and institutional factors, including amenities associated with river proximity, riverine flood risk, and insurance against this risk. Our results show that population growth in European floodplains and, consequently, rising riverine flood risk are considerably higher when the dis-amenity caused by flood risk is offset by insurance. This outcome is particularly evident in countries where flood risk is covered collectively and notably less where premiums reflect the risk of individual households. This study finds that flood insurance policy design affects economic development in floodplains and, consequently, flood risk in Europe. Therefore, the authors advocate for flood insurance design to be integrated in climate change adaptation policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decarbonising energy systems is a prevalent topic in the current literature on climate change mitigation, but the additional climate burden caused by methane emissions along the natural gas value chain is rarely discussed at the system level. Considering a two-basket greenhouse gas neutrality objective (both CO2 and methane), we model cost-optimal European energy transition pathways towards 2050. Our analysis shows that adoption of best available methane abatement technologies can entail an 80% reduction in methane leakage, limiting the additional environmental burden to 8% of direct CO2 emissions (vs. 35% today). We show that, while renewable energy sources are key drivers of climate neutrality, the role of natural gas strongly depends on actions to abate both associated CO2 and methane emissions. Moreover, clean hydrogen (produced mainly from renewables) can replace natural gas in a substantial proportion of its end-uses, satisfying nearly a quarter of final energy demand in a climate-neutral Europe. Cost-optimal European energy transition with CO2 and methane neutrality objective is studied. While renewables are the key drivers of climate neutrality, the continuous role of natural gas requires high levels of both CO2 and methane abatement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European rivers are disconnected by more than one million man-made barriers that physically limit aquatic species migration and contribute to modification of freshwater habitats. Here, a Conceptual Habitat Alteration Model for Ponding is developed to aid in evaluating the effects of impoundments on fish habitats. Fish communities present in rivers with low human impact and their broad environmental settings enable classification of European rivers into 15 macrohabitat types. These classifications, together with the estimated fish sensitivity to alteration of their habitat are used for assessing the impacts of six main barrier types (dams, weirs, sluices, culverts, fords, and ramps). Our results indicate that over 200,000 km or 10% of previously free-flowing river habitat has been altered due to impoundments. Although they appear less frequently, dams, weirs and sluices cause much more habitat alteration than the other types. Their impact is regionally diverse, which is a function of barrier height, type and density, as well as biogeographical location. This work allows us to foresee what potential environmental gain or loss can be expected with planned barrier management actions in rivers, and to prioritize management actions. European rivers have over a million barriers hindering aquatic species migration and altering freshwater habitats. This study quantifies the spatial extent of upstream fish habitat alteration caused by physical blockage and shows that impoundments have altered 10% or 200,000 km of free-flowing river habitat in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European windstorms cause socioeconomic losses due to wind damage. Projections of future losses from such storms are subject to uncertainties from the frequency and tracks of the storms, their intensities and definitions thereof, and socio-economic scenarios. We use two storm severity indices applied to objectively identified extratropical cyclone footprints from a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models under different future socio-economic scenarios. Here we show storm frequency increases across northern and central Europe, where the meteorological storm severity index more than doubles. The population-weighted storm severity index more than triples, due to projected population increases. Adapting to the increasing wind speeds using future damage thresholds, the population weighted storm severity index increases are only partially offset, despite a reduction in the meteorological storm severity through adaptation. Through following lower emissions scenarios, the future increase in risk is reduced, with the population-weighted storm severity index increase more than halved. New study by Little, @jencatto19, @_mattpriestley shows that #storm severity of European winter storms shows future increased #stormlosses in northwestern Europe, caused by changes in the location and intensity of storms, and increasing population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Factors driving microbial community composition and diversity are well established but the relationship with microbial functioning is poorly understood, especially at large scales. We analysed microbial biodiversity metrics and distribution of potential functional groups along a gradient of increasing land-use perturbation, detecting over 79,000 bacterial and 25,000 fungal OTUs in 715 sites across 24 European countries. We found the lowest bacterial and fungal diversity in less-disturbed environments (woodlands) compared to grasslands and highly-disturbed environments (croplands). Highly-disturbed environments contain significantly more bacterial chemoheterotrophs, harbour a higher proportion of fungal plant pathogens and saprotrophs, and have less beneficial fungal plant symbionts compared to woodlands and extensively-managed grasslands. Spatial patterns of microbial communities and predicted functions are best explained when interactions among the major determinants (vegetation cover, climate, soil properties) are considered. We propose guidelines for environmental policy actions and argue that taxonomical and functional diversity should be considered simultaneously for monitoring purposes. "Factors influencing soil microbiota functioning remain understudied. Here, the authors describe bacterial and fungal diversity across Europe and along a gradient of land-use perturbation, observing that the occurrence of pathogens, symbionts and saprotrophs varied among cropland, woodland and grassland." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Excess reactive nitrogen (Nr), including nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ammonia (NH3), contributes strongly to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution in Europe, posing challenges to public health. Designing cost-effective Nr control roadmaps for PM2.5 mitigation requires considering both mitigation efficiencies and implementation costs. Here we identify optimal Nr control pathways for Europe by integrating emission estimations, air quality modeling, exposure-mortality modeling, Nr control experiments and cost data. We find that phasing out Nr emissions would reduce PM2.5 by 2.3 ± 1.2 μg·m−3 in Europe, helping many locations achieve the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines and reducing PM2.5-related premature deaths by almost 100 thousand in 2015. Low-ambition NH3 controls have similar PM2.5 mitigation efficiencies as NOx in Eastern Europe, but are less effective in Western Europe until reductions exceed 40%. The efficiency for NH3 controls increases at high-ambition reductions while NOx slightly decreases. When costs are considered, strategies for both regions uniformly shift in favor of NH3 controls, as NH3 controls up to 50% remain 5-11 times more cost-effective than NOx per unit PM2.5 reduction, emphasizing the priority of NH3 control policies for Europe. Reactive nitrogen (Nr) contributes strongly to PM2.5 air pollution in Europe. Here, authors identify diverse Nr control pathways for Europe depending on emission and pollution formation and a priority of NH3 control when costs are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European aviation sector must substantially reduce climate impacts to reach net-zero goals. This reduction, however, must not be limited to flight CO2 emissions since such a narrow focus leaves up to 80% of climate impacts unaccounted for. Based on rigorous life-cycle assessment and a time-dependent quantification of non-CO2 climate impacts, here we show that, from a technological standpoint, using electricity-based synthetic jet fuels and compensating climate impacts via direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) can enable climate-neutral aviation. However, with a continuous increase in air traffic, synthetic jet fuel produced with electricity from renewables would exert excessive pressure on economic and natural resources. Alternatively, compensating climate impacts of fossil jet fuel via DACCS would require massive CO2 storage volumes and prolong dependence on fossil fuels. Here, we demonstrate that a European climate-neutral aviation will fly if air traffic is reduced to limit the scale of the climate impacts to mitigate. Europe's aviation must reduce more than just flight CO2 emissions to achieve net-zero. Synthetic fuels and carbon capture and storage could help but decreasing air traffic is crucial due to non-CO2 climate impacts and resource constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have shown that hydrogen could play a large role in the energy transition for hard-to-electrify sectors, but previous modelling has not included the necessary features to assess its role. They have either left out important sectors of hydrogen demand, ignored the temporal variability in the system or neglected the dynamics of learning effects. We address these limitations and consider learning-by-doing for the full green hydrogen production chain with different climate targets in a detailed European sector-coupled model. Here, we show that in the next 10 years a faster scale-up of electrolysis and renewable capacities than envisaged by the EU in the REPowerEU Plan can be cost-optimal to reach the strictest +1.5oC target. This reduces the costs for hydrogen production to 1.26 €/kg by 2050. Hydrogen production switches from grey to green hydrogen, omitting the option of blue hydrogen. If electrolysis costs are modelled without dynamic learning-by-doing, then the electrolysis scale-up is significantly delayed, while total system costs are overestimated by up to 13% and the levelised cost of hydrogen is overestimated by 67%. This study highlights the importance of including learning-by-doing for hydrogen production in energy models. It reveals that scaling up renewable capacities and electrolysis faster than the EU's REPowerEU Plan can be cost-effective under strict climate targets, reducing hydrogen production costs and shifting from grey to green hydrogen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Covering 35% of Europe's land area, forest ecosystems play a crucial role in safeguarding biodiversity and mitigating climate change. Yet, forest degradation continues to undermine key ecosystem services that forests deliver to society. Here we provide a spatially explicit assessment of the condition of forest ecosystems in Europe following a United Nations global statistical standard on ecosystem accounting, adopted in March 2021. We measure forest condition on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 represents a degraded ecosystem and 1 represents a reference condition based on primary or protected forests. We show that the condition across 44 forest types averaged 0.566 in 2000 and increased to 0.585 in 2018. Forest productivity and connectivity are comparable to levels observed in undisturbed or least disturbed forests. One third of the forest area was subject to declining condition, signalled by a reduction in soil organic carbon, tree cover density and species richness of threatened birds. Our findings suggest that forest ecosystems will need further restoration, improvements in management and an extended period of recovery to approach natural conditions. Monitoring ecosystem conditions in quantitative and standardized ways could facilitate transnational coordination of conservation and land management policies. Here, the authors use a spatially explicit ecosystem accounting approach to assess the state of European forests and recent trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improving equity is an emerging priority in climate and energy strategies, but little is known how these strategies would alter inequalities. Regional inequalities such as price, employment and land use are especially relevant in the electricity sector, which must decarbonize first to allow other sectors to decarbonize. Here, we show that a European low-carbon electricity sector in 2035 can reduce but also sustain associated regional inequalities. Using spatially-explicit modeling for 296 sub-national regions, we demonstrate that emission cuts consistent with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 result in continent-wide benefits by 2035 regarding electricity sector investments, employment gains, and decreased greenhouse gas and particulate matter emissions. However, the benefits risk being concentrated in affluent regions of Northern Europe, while regions of Southern and Southeastern Europe risk high vulnerabilities due to high adverse impacts and sensitivities, and low adaptive capacities. Future analysis should investigate policy mechanisms for reducing and compensating inequalities. The low-carbon electricity sector in Europe can bring overall benefits of new investment, employment, and decreased emissions, but could sustain regional inequalities between Northern and Southern Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Domesticated crops have been disseminated by humans over vast geographic areas. Common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) was introduced in Europe after 1492. Here, by combining whole-genome profiling, metabolic fingerprinting and phenotypic characterisation, we show that the first common bean cultigens successfully introduced into Europe were of Andean origin, after Francisco Pizarro's expedition to northern Peru in 1529. We reveal that hybridisation, selection and recombination have shaped the genomic diversity of the European common bean in parallel with political constraints. There is clear evidence of adaptive introgression into the Mesoamerican-derived European genotypes, with 44 Andean introgressed genomic segments shared by more than 90% of European accessions and distributed across all chromosomes except PvChr11. Genomic scans for signatures of selection highlight the role of genes relevant to flowering and environmental adaptation, suggesting that introgression has been crucial for the dissemination of this tropical crop to the temperate regions of Europe. Common bean has two distinct domestication centers in Mesoamerica and in the Andes. The authors show that the Andean is the first gene pool successfully introduced in Europe and identify signature of pervasive introgression among gene pools and of selection for flowering underlying adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ungulate populations are increasing across Europe with important implications for forest plant communities. Concurrently, atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition continues to eutrophicate forests, threatening many rare, often more nutrient-efficient, plant species. These pressures may critically interact to shape biodiversity as in grassland and tundra systems, yet any potential interactions in forests remain poorly understood. Here, we combined vegetation resurveys from 52 sites across 13 European countries to test how changes in ungulate herbivory and eutrophication drive long-term changes in forest understorey communities. Increases in herbivory were associated with elevated temporal species turnover, however, identities of winner and loser species depended on N levels. Under low levels of N-deposition, herbivory favored threatened and small-ranged species while reducing the proportion of non-native and nutrient-demanding species. Yet all these trends were reversed under high levels of N-deposition. Herbivores also reduced shrub cover, likely exacerbating N effects by increasing light levels in the understorey. Eutrophication levels may therefore determine whether herbivory acts as a catalyst for the "N time bomb" or as a conservation tool in temperate forests. Ungulate herbivory is an important driver of ecological change in forests. Here, the authors combine vegetation resurveys showing herbivory effects are highly dependent on soil eutrophication, promoting non-natives under high N-conditions, yet benefiting threatened species under low N-conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs) are critically important antimicrobial agents for human and veterinary medicine. ESC resistance (ESC-R) genes have spread worldwide through plasmids and clonal expansion, yet the distribution and dynamics of ESC-R genes in different ecological compartments are poorly understood. Here we use whole genome sequence data of Enterobacterales isolates of human and animal origin from Europe and North America and identify contrasting temporal dynamics. AmpC β-lactamases were initially more dominant in North America in humans and farm animals, only later emerging in Europe. In contrast, specific extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs) were initially common in animals from Europe and later emerged in North America. This study identifies differences in the relative importance of plasmids and clonal expansion across different compartments for the spread of different ESC-R genes. Understanding the mechanisms of transmission will be critical in the design of interventions to reduce the spread of antimicrobial resistance. Extended-spectrum cephalosporin resistance genes in Escherichia coli have spread worldwide. Here, the authors dissect the emergence and distribution of these genes over time, and across geographic location and host species, to better understand their dynamics and mechanisms of transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although cities have risen to prominence as climate actors, emissions' data scarcity has been the primary challenge to evaluating their performance. Here we develop a scalable, replicable machine learning approach for evaluating the mitigation performance for nearly all local administrative areas in Europe from 2001-2018. By combining publicly available, spatially explicit environmental and socio-economic data with self-reported emissions data from European cities, we predict annual carbon dioxide emissions to explore trends in city-scale mitigation performance. We find that European cities participating in transnational climate initiatives have likely decreased emissions since 2001, with slightly more than half likely to have achieved their 2020 emissions reduction target. Cities who report emissions data are more likely to have achieved greater reductions than those who fail to report any data. Despite its limitations, our model provides a replicable, scalable starting point for understanding city-level climate emissions mitigation performance. Since the Paris Agreement recognized in 2015 cities have pledged climate actions that often exceed the scope and ambition of their national governments' policies but there is scant evidence of these actions' outcomes, largely because of the lack of reported emissions data. Here the authors utilize spatially explicit datasets relevant to urban carbon emissions and self-reported emissions data from European cities, and develops a machine-learning approach to predict and explore trends in city-scale mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With rapidly decreasing purchase prices of electric vehicles, charging costs are becoming ever more important for the diffusion of electric vehicles as required to decarbonize transport. However, the costs of charging electric vehicles in Europe are largely unknown. Here we develop a systematic classification of charging options, gather extensive market data on equipment cost, and employ a levelized cost approach to model charging costs in 30 European countries (European Union 27, Great Britain, Norway, Switzerland) and for 13 different charging options for private passenger transport. The findings demonstrate a large variance of charging costs across countries and charging options, suggesting different policy options to reduce charging costs. A specific analysis on the impacts and relevance of publicly accessible charging station utilization is performed. The results reveal charging costs at these stations to be competitive with fuel costs at typical utilization rates exhibited already today. Charging costs are important for the diffusion of electric vehicles as required to decarbonize transport. Here, the authors show large variance of electrical vehicle charging costs across 30 European countries and charging options, suggesting different policy options to reduce charging costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population dynamics set the framework for human genetic and cultural evolution. For foragers, demographic and environmental changes correlate strongly, although the causal relations between different environmental variables and human responses through time and space likely varied. Building on the notion of limiting factors, namely that at any one time, the scarcest resource caps population size, we present a statistical approach to identify the dominant climatic constraints for hunter-gatherer population densities and then hindcast their changing dynamics in Europe for the period between 21,000 to 8000 years ago. Limiting factors shifted from temperature-related variables (effective temperature) during the Pleistocene to a regional mosaic of limiting factors in the Holocene dominated by temperature seasonality and annual precipitation. This spatiotemporal variation suggests that hunter-gatherers needed to overcome very different adaptive challenges in different parts of Europe and that these challenges varied over time. The signatures of these changing adaptations may be visible archaeologically. In addition, the spatial disaggregation of limiting factors from the Pleistocene to the Holocene coincided with and may partly explain the diversification of the cultural geography at this time. Here, the authors use climate and resource availability, to statistically model the limiting factors in the dynamics of hunter-gatherer population densities in Europe between 21,000 and 8,000 years ago. They find that limiting factors varied spatiotemporally and the effects of these may be visible in the archaeological record. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cereal cultivation in Britain dates back to ca. 4000 BCE, probably introduced by migrant farmers from continental Europe. Widespread evidence for livestock appears in the archaeozoological record, also reflected by ubiquitous dairy lipids in pottery organic residues. However, despite archaeobotanical evidence for domesticated plants (such as cereals), organic residue evidence has been near-absent. Our approach, targeting low-abundance cereal-specific markers, has now revealed evidence for cereals (indicating wheat) in Neolithic pottery from Scottish 'crannogs', dating to ca. 3600 – 3300 BCE. Their association with dairy products suggests cereals may have been regularly prepared together as a milk-based gruel. We also observed a strong association between the occurrence of dairy products and smaller-mouthed vessels. Here, we demonstrate that cereal-specific markers can survive in cooking pots for millennia, revealing the consumption of specific cereals (wheat) that are virtually absent from the archaeobotanical record for this region and illuminating culinary traditions among early farming communities. Despite archaeobotanical evidence for domesticated cereals, organic residue evidence is scarce. Here, the authors identify cereal-specific markers in pottery from Scottish 'crannogs', revealing the presence of cereals in Neolithic pottery which might have been mixed with dairy products as a milk-based gruel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although urban greening is universally recognized as an essential part of sustainable and climate-responsive cities, a growing literature on green gentrification argues that new green infrastructure, and greenspace in particular, can contribute to gentrification, thus creating social and racial inequalities in access to the benefits of greenspace and further environmental and climate injustice. In response to limited quantitative evidence documenting the temporal relationship between new greenspaces and gentrification across entire cities, let alone across various international contexts, we employ a spatially weighted Bayesian model to test the green gentrification hypothesis across 28 cities in 9 countries in North America and Europe. Here we show a strong positive and relevant relationship for at least one decade between greening in the 1990s–2000s and gentrification that occurred between 2000–2016 in 17 of the 28 cities. Our results also determine whether greening plays a "lead", "integrated", or "subsidiary" role in explaining gentrification. The relationship between new greenspaces and gentrification is an important one for urbanization. Here the authors show a positive relationship for at least one decade between greening in the 1990s–2000s and gentrification that occurred between 2000–2016 in 17 of 28 studied cities in North America and Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historically, mothers producing twins gave birth, on average, more often than non-twinners. This observation has been interpreted as twinners having higher intrinsic fertility – a tendency to conceive easily irrespective of age and other factors – which has shaped both hypotheses about why twinning persists and varies across populations, and the design of medical studies on female fertility. Here we show in >20k pre-industrial European mothers that this interpretation results from an ecological fallacy: twinners had more births not due to higher intrinsic fertility, but because mothers that gave birth more accumulated more opportunities to produce twins. Controlling for variation in the exposure to the risk of twinning reveals that mothers with higher twinning propensity – a physiological predisposition to producing twins – had fewer births, and when twin mortality was high, fewer offspring reaching adulthood. Twinning rates may thus be driven by variation in its mortality costs, rather than variation in intrinsic fertility. The question of whether women who produce twins are more fertile than other women has been debated. Here, the authors analyze a large dataset of pre-industrial birth outcomes and find evidence against the idea of higher fertility and instead that more births lead to more twinning opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the deadliest respiratory pandemic of the 20th century and determined the genomic make-up of subsequent human influenza A viruses (IAV). Here, we analyze both the first 1918 IAV genomes from Europe and the first from samples prior to the autumn peak. 1918 IAV genomic diversity is consistent with a combination of local transmission and long-distance dispersal events. Comparison of genomes before and during the pandemic peak shows variation at two sites in the nucleoprotein gene associated with resistance to host antiviral response, pointing at a possible adaptation of 1918 IAV to humans. Finally, local molecular clock modeling suggests a pure pandemic descent of seasonal H1N1 IAV as an alternative to the hypothesis of origination through an intrasubtype reassortment. For archival pathogens, like pH1N1 Influenza A virus the causative agent of 1918/19 pandemic, only few whole genome sequences exist. Here, Patrono et al. provide one complete and two partial genomes from Germany and find variation in two sites in the nucleoprotein gene in pandemic samples compared to pre-pandemic samples, that are associated with resistance to host antiviral response, pointing at a possible viral adaptation to humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two COVID-19 mRNA (of BNT162b2, mRNA-1273) and two adenovirus vector vaccines (ChAdOx1 and Janssen) are licensed in Europe, but optimization of regime and dosing is still ongoing. Here we show in health care workers (n = 328) that two doses of BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, or a combination of ChAdOx1 adenovirus vector and mRNA vaccines administrated with a long 12-week dose interval induce equally high levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies and neutralizing antibodies against D614 and Delta variant. By contrast, two doses of BNT162b2 with a short 3-week interval induce 2-3-fold lower titers of neutralizing antibodies than those from the 12-week interval, yet a third BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 booster dose increases the antibody levels 4-fold compared to the levels after the second dose, as well as induces neutralizing antibody against Omicron BA.1 variant. Our data thus indicates that a third COVID-19 mRNA vaccine may induce cross-protective neutralizing antibodies against multiple variants. Vaccination shows efficacy in protecting from COVID-19, but regime and dosing optimization is still ongoing. Here the authors show that BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, or their combination with ChAdOx1 induces similar antibody responses, and those receiving three doses of BNT162b2 induce neutralizing antibodies against the Omicron variant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distribution of the black rat (Rattus rattus) has been heavily influenced by its association with humans. The dispersal history of this non-native commensal rodent across Europe, however, remains poorly understood, and different introductions may have occurred during the Roman and medieval periods. Here, in order to reconstruct the population history of European black rats, we first generate a de novo genome assembly of the black rat. We then sequence 67 ancient and three modern black rat mitogenomes, and 36 ancient and three modern nuclear genomes from archaeological sites spanning the 1st-17th centuries CE in Europe and North Africa. Analyses of our newly reported sequences, together with published mitochondrial DNA sequences, confirm that black rats were introduced into the Mediterranean and Europe from Southwest Asia. Genomic analyses of the ancient rats reveal a population turnover in temperate Europe between the 6th and 10th centuries CE, coincident with an archaeologically attested decline in the black rat population. The near disappearance and re-emergence of black rats in Europe may have been the result of the breakdown of the Roman Empire, the First Plague Pandemic, and/or post-Roman climatic cooling. 'Archaeogenetic analysis of black rat remains reveals that this species was introduced into temperate Europe twice, in the Roman and medieval periods. This population turnover was likely associated with multiple historical and environmental factors.' [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we assess the potential implementation of earthquake early warning (EEW) across Europe, where there is a clear need for measures that mitigate seismic risk. EEW systems consist of seismic networks and mathematical models/algorithms capable of real-time data telemetry that alert stakeholders (e.g., civil-protection authorities, the public) to an earthquake's nucleation seconds before shaking occurs at target sites. During this time, actions can be taken that might decrease detrimental impacts. We investigate distributions of EEW lead times available across various parts of the Euro-Mediterranean region, based on seismicity models and seismic network density. We then determine the potential usefulness of these times for EEW purposes by defining their spatial relationship with population exposure, seismic hazard, and an alert accuracy proxy, using well-established earthquake-engineering tools for measuring the impacts of earthquakes. Our mapped feasibility results show that, under certain conditions, EEW could be effective for some parts of Europe. The viability of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Europe is highly dependent on the magnitude of the ongoing earthquake and the ground-shaking threshold for alert issuance. The potential effectiveness of EEW is highest for Turkey, Italy, and Greece. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heatwaves exert disproportionately strong and sometimes irreversible impacts on forest ecosystems. These impacts remain poorly understood at the tree and species level and across large spatial scales. Here, we investigate the effects of the record-breaking 2018 European heatwave on tree growth and tree water status using a collection of high-temporal resolution dendrometer data from 21 species across 53 sites. Relative to the two preceding years, annual stem growth was not consistently reduced by the 2018 heatwave but stems experienced twice the temporary shrinkage due to depletion of water reserves. Conifer species were less capable of rehydrating overnight than broadleaves across gradients of soil and atmospheric drought, suggesting less resilience toward transient stress. In particular, Norway spruce and Scots pine experienced extensive stem dehydration. Our high-resolution dendrometer network was suitable to disentangle the effects of a severe heatwave on tree growth and desiccation at large-spatial scales in situ, and provided insights on which species may be more vulnerable to climate extremes. Forest dynamics are monitored at large scales with remote sensing, but individual tree data are necessary for ground-truthing and mechanistic insights. This study on high temporal resolution dendrometer data across Europe reveals that the 2018 heatwave affected tree physiology and growth in unexpected way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European governments use non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control resurging waves of COVID-19. However, they only have outdated estimates for how effective individual NPIs were in the first wave. We estimate the effectiveness of 17 NPIs in Europe's second wave from subnational case and death data by introducing a flexible hierarchical Bayesian transmission model and collecting the largest dataset of NPI implementation dates across Europe. Business closures, educational institution closures, and gathering bans reduced transmission, but reduced it less than they did in the first wave. This difference is likely due to organisational safety measures and individual protective behaviours—such as distancing—which made various areas of public life safer and thereby reduced the effect of closing them. Specifically, we find smaller effects for closing educational institutions, suggesting that stringent safety measures made schools safer compared to the first wave. Second-wave estimates outperform previous estimates at predicting transmission in Europe's third wave. European governments control resurging waves of COVID-19 using nonpharmaceutical interventions. Here, the authors estimate the effectiveness of 17 interventions in Europe's second wave, and analyse differences to the first wave as well as implications for the future of the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme heat undermines the working capacity of individuals, resulting in lower productivity, and thus economic output. Here we analyse the present and future economic damages due to reduced labour productivity caused by extreme heat in Europe. For the analysis of current impacts, we focused on heatwaves occurring in four recent anomalously hot years (2003, 2010, 2015, and 2018) and compared our findings to the historical period 1981–2010. In the selected years, the total estimated damages attributed to heatwaves amounted to 0.3–0.5% of European gross domestic product (GDP). However, the identified losses were largely heterogeneous across space, consistently showing GDP impacts beyond 1% in more vulnerable regions. Future projections indicate that by 2060 impacts might increase in Europe by a factor of almost five compared to the historical period 1981–2010 if no further mitigation or adaptation actions are taken, suggesting the presence of more pronounced effects in the regions where these damages are already acute. Heatwaves are becoming increasingly frequent and more intense, causing severe economic impacts through reduced labour productivity. Here, the authors show that economic damages in Europe exceed 1% of the GDP in vulnerable areas, which might increase by a factor of almost five in the medium term without climate action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests play a key role in humanity's current challenge to mitigate climate change thanks to their capacity to sequester carbon. Preserving and expanding forest cover is considered essential to enhance this carbon sink. However, changing the forest cover can further affect the climate system through biophysical effects. One such effect that is seldom studied is how afforestation can alter the cloud regime, which can potentially have repercussions on the hydrological cycle, the surface radiation budget and on planetary albedo itself. Here we provide a global scale assessment of this effect derived from satellite remote sensing observations. We show that for 67% of sampled areas across the world, afforestation would increase low level cloud cover, which should have a cooling effect on the planet. We further reveal a dependency of this effect on forest type, notably in Europe where needleleaf forests generate more clouds than broadleaf forests. Forests can influence climate by affecting low cloud formation, but where and when this occurs is not well known. Here, the authors provide a global-scale assessment, based on satellite remote sensing observations, suggesting afforestation mostly increases low cloud cover which could potentially cool surface temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land-use intensification is a major driver of biodiversity loss. However, understanding how different components of land use drive biodiversity loss requires the investigation of multiple trophic levels across spatial scales. Using data from 150 agricultural grasslands in central Europe, we assess the influence of multiple components of local- and landscape-level land use on more than 4,000 above- and belowground taxa, spanning 20 trophic groups. Plot-level land-use intensity is strongly and negatively associated with aboveground trophic groups, but positively or not associated with belowground trophic groups. Meanwhile, both above- and belowground trophic groups respond to landscape-level land use, but to different drivers: aboveground diversity of grasslands is promoted by diverse surrounding land-cover, while belowground diversity is positively related to a high permanent forest cover in the surrounding landscape. These results highlight a role of landscape-level land use in shaping belowground communities, and suggest that revised agroecosystem management strategies are needed to conserve whole-ecosystem biodiversity. Land use intensification is a major driver of biodiversity change. Here the authors measure diversity across multiple trophic levels in agricultural grassland landscapes of varying management, finding decoupled responses of above- and belowground taxa to local factors and a strong impact of landscape-level land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dysfunction of embryo transport causes ectopic pregnancy which affects approximately 2% of conceptions in the US and Europe, and is the most common cause of pregnancy-related death in the first trimester. Embryo transit involves a valve-like tubal-locking phenomenon that temporarily arrests oocytes at the ampullary-isthmic junction (AIJ) where fertilisation occurs, but the mechanisms involved are unknown. Here we show that female mice lacking the orphan adhesion G-protein coupled receptor Adgrd1 are sterile because they do not relieve the AIJ restraining mechanism, inappropriately retaining embryos within the oviduct. Adgrd1 is expressed on the oviductal epithelium and the post-ovulatory attenuation of tubal fluid flow is dysregulated in Adgrd1-deficient mice. Using a large-scale extracellular protein interaction screen, we identified Plxdc2 as an activating ligand for Adgrd1 displayed on cumulus cells. Our findings demonstrate that regulating oviductal fluid flow by Adgrd1 controls embryo transit and we present a model where embryo arrest at the AIJ is due to the balance of abovarial ciliary action and the force of adovarial tubal fluid flow, and in wild-type oviducts, fluid flow is gradually attenuated through Adgrd1 activation to enable embryo release. Our findings provide important insights into the molecular mechanisms involved in embryo transport in mice. Lack of correct embryo transport can cause ectopic pregnancy. Here, the authors show that female mice lacking the adhesion G-protein coupled receptor Adgrd1 are infertile, due to embryos being trapped in the ampulla as the result of dysregulated oviductal fluid flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For a given carbon budget over several decades, different transformation rates for the energy system yield starkly different results. Here we consider a budget of 33 GtCO2 for the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from the European electricity, heating, and transport sectors between 2020 and 2050, which represents Europe's contribution to the Paris Agreement. We have found that following an early and steady path in which emissions are strongly reduced in the first decade is more cost-effective than following a late and rapid path in which low initial reduction targets quickly deplete the carbon budget and require a sharp reduction later. We show that solar photovoltaic, onshore and offshore wind can become the cornerstone of a fully decarbonised energy system and that installation rates similar to historical maxima are required to achieve timely decarbonisation. Key to those results is a proper representation of existing balancing strategies through an open, hourly-resolved, networked model of the sector-coupled European energy system. For a given carbon budget between 2020 and 2050, different transformation rates for the European energy system yield starkly different results. Here the authors show that strongly reducing emissions in the first decade is cost-effective and entails additional benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local biodiversity trends over time are likely to be decoupled from global trends, as local processes may compensate or counteract global change. We analyze 161 long-term biological time series (15–91 years) collected across Europe, using a comprehensive dataset comprising ~6,200 marine, freshwater and terrestrial taxa. We test whether (i) local long-term biodiversity trends are consistent among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, and (ii) changes in biodiversity correlate with regional climate and local conditions. Our results reveal that local trends of abundance, richness and diversity differ among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, demonstrating that biodiversity changes at local scale are often complex and cannot be easily generalized. However, we find increases in richness and abundance with increasing temperature and naturalness as well as a clear spatial pattern in changes in community composition (i.e. temporal taxonomic turnover) in most biogeoregions of Northern and Eastern Europe. The global biodiversity decline might conceal complex local and group-specific trends. Here the authors report a quantitative synthesis of longterm biodiversity trends across Europe, showing how, despite overall increase in biodiversity metric and stability in abundance, trends differ between regions, ecosystem types, and taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Structural variation (SV) constitutes an important type of genetic mutations providing the raw material for evolution. Here, we uncover the genome-wide spectrum of intra- and interspecific SV segregating in natural populations of seven songbird species in the genus Corvus. Combining short-read (N = 127) and long-read re-sequencing (N = 31), as well as optical mapping (N = 16), we apply both assembly- and read mapping approaches to detect SV and characterize a total of 220,452 insertions, deletions and inversions. We exploit sampling across wide phylogenetic timescales to validate SV genotypes and assess the contribution of SV to evolutionary processes in an avian model of incipient speciation. We reveal an evolutionary young (~530,000 years) cis-acting 2.25-kb LTR retrotransposon insertion reducing expression of the NDP gene with consequences for premating isolation. Our results attest to the wealth and evolutionary significance of SV segregating in natural populations and highlight the need for reliable SV genotyping. Structural genomic variation can fuel evolution. Here, authors present genome data from seven Corvus species and unearth structural variants that vary between incipient crow species in Europe, with implications for premating isolation involving plumage patterning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the circumstances of the undeclared 2017 nuclear release of ruthenium that led to widespread detections of the radioisotope 106Ru in the Eurasian region, and whether it derives from a civilian or military source, is of major importance for society and future improvements in nuclear safety. Until now, the released nuclear material has merely been studied by analyzing short-lived radioisotopes. Here, we report precise measurements of the stable isotopic composition of ruthenium captured in air filters before, during, and after the nuclear release, and find that the ruthenium collected during the period of the 2017 nuclear release has a non-natural isotopic composition. By comparing our results with ruthenium isotopic compositions of spent nuclear fuels, we show that the release is consistent with the isotopic fingerprints of a civilian Russian water-water energetic reactor (VVER) fuel at the end of its lifetime, and is not related to the production of plutonium for nuclear weapons. A cloud of enhanced ruthenium concentrations has been observed over Europe in 2017, but no country has acknowledged responsibility for this nuclear release. Here, the authors show that the stable isotopic composition of ruthenium emitted from nuclear fuel reprocessing during the 2017 event is consistent with the isotopic signature of civilian Russian nuclear reactor fuel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme sea levels (ESLs) in Europe could rise by as much as one metre or more by the end of this century due to climate change. This poses significant challenges to safeguard coastal communities. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of economically efficient protection scenarios along Europe's coastlines during the present century. We employ a probabilistic framework that integrates dynamic simulations of all ESL components and flood inundation, impact modelling and a cost-benefit analysis of raising dykes. We find that at least 83% of flood damages in Europe could be avoided by elevating dykes in an economically efficient way along 23.7%-32.1% of Europe's coastline, specifically where high value conurbations exist. The European mean benefit to cost ratio of the investments varies from 8.3 to 14.9 while at country level this ranges between 1.6 and 34.3, with higher efficiencies for a scenario with high-end greenhouse gas emissions and strong socio-economic growth. There lacks a European cost-benefit analysis of possible protective measures against rising seas. Here the authors used a probabilistic data and modeling framework to estimate costs and benefits of coastal protection measures and found that at least 83% of flood damages could be avoided by dyke improvements along a third of the European coastline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The introduction of farming had far-reaching impacts on health, social structure and demography. Although the spread of domesticated plants and animals has been extensively tracked, it is unclear how these nascent economies developed within different environmental and cultural settings. Using molecular and isotopic analysis of lipids from pottery, here we investigate the foods prepared by the earliest farming communities of the European Atlantic seaboard. Surprisingly, we find an absence of aquatic foods, including in ceramics from coastal sites, except in the Western Baltic where this tradition continued from indigenous ceramic using hunter-gatherer-fishers. The frequency of dairy products in pottery increased as farming was progressively introduced along a northerly latitudinal gradient. This finding implies that early farming communities needed time to adapt their economic practices before expanding into more northerly areas. Latitudinal differences in the scale of dairy production might also have influenced the evolution of adult lactase persistence across Europe. The transition to agriculture brought major changes to human populations in Europe during the Neolithic period. Here, Cubas and colleagues analyse lipid residues from Neolithic pottery from along the Atlantic coast of Europe to trace the spread of dairy production and shifts in diet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European steppes and their biota have been hypothesized to be either young remnants of the Pleistocene steppe belt or, alternatively, to represent relicts of long-term persisting populations; both scenarios directly bear on nature conservation priorities. Here, we evaluate the conservation value of threatened disjunct steppic grassland habitats in Europe in the context of the Eurasian steppe biome. We use genomic data and ecological niche modelling to assess pre-defined, biome-specific criteria for three plant and three arthropod species. We show that the evolutionary history of Eurasian steppe biota is strikingly congruent across species. The biota of European steppe outposts were long-term isolated from the Asian steppes, and European steppes emerged as disproportionally conservation relevant, harbouring regionally endemic genetic lineages, large genetic diversity, and a mosaic of stable refugia. We emphasize that conserving what is left of Europe's steppes is crucial for conserving the biological diversity of the entire Eurasian steppe biome. Europe hosts isolated remnants of the steppe belt that once covered much of Eurasia. Here the authors combine genomic data and ecological niche modelling on three plant and three insect species to show evolution independent of the zonal steppe and high conservation value of these extrazonal steppes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive alien species (IAS) can substantially affect ecosystem services and human well-being. However, quantitative assessments of their impact on human health are rare and the benefits of implementing IAS management likely to be underestimated. Here we report the effects of the allergenic plant Ambrosia artemisiifolia on public health in Europe and the potential impact of the accidentally introduced leaf beetle Ophraella communa on the number of patients and healthcare costs. We find that, prior to the establishment of O. communa, some 13.5 million persons suffered from Ambrosia-induced allergies in Europe, causing costs of Euro 7.4 billion annually. Our projections reveal that biological control of A. artemisiifolia will reduce the number of patients by approximately 2.3 million and the health costs by Euro 1.1 billion per year. Our conservative calculations indicate that the currently discussed economic costs of IAS underestimate the real costs and thus also the benefits from biological control. Invasive plants can adversely affect ecosystems and economic costs. Here, the authors quantify the impact of the invasive plant Ambrosia artemisiifolia on seasonal allergies and health costs across Europe, finding that the costs are considerably higher than what previously reported, and estimate also the reduction in the number of patients and health costs that may be obtained with biological control [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Around 70 Mha of land cover changes (LCCs) occurred in Europe from 1992 to 2015. Despite LCCs being an important driver of regional climate variations, their temperature effects at a continental scale have not yet been assessed. Here, we integrate maps of historical LCCs with a regional climate model to investigate air temperature and humidity effects. We find an average temperature change of −0.12 ± 0.20 °C, with widespread cooling (up to −1.0 °C) in western and central Europe in summer and spring. At continental scale, the mean cooling is mainly correlated with agriculture abandonment (cropland-to-forest transitions), but a new approach based on ridge-regression decomposing the temperature change to the individual land transitions shows opposite responses to cropland losses and gains between western and eastern Europe. Effects of historical LCCs on European climate are non-negligible and region-specific, and ignoring land-climate biophysical interactions may lead to sub-optimal climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Land cover change contributes to regional climate trends. Here, the authors use high-resolution land cover maps and state-of-the-art climate modelling to assess land cover change effects across Europe over 1992-2015, showing widespread cooling after agricultural abandonment but also different, region-specific effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fossils of juvenile Mesozoic birds provide insight into the early evolution of avian development, however such fossils are rare. The analysis of the ossification sequence in these earlybranching birds has the potential to address important questions about their comparative developmental biology and to help understand their morphological evolution and ecological differentiation. Here we report on an early juvenile enantiornithine specimen from the Early Cretaceous of Europe, which sheds new light on the osteogenesis in this most species-rich clade of Mesozoic birds. Consisting of a nearly complete skeleton, it is amongst the smallest known Mesozoic avian fossils representing post-hatching stages of development. Comparisons between this new specimen and other known early juvenile enantiornithines support a clade-wide asynchronous pattern of osteogenesis in the sternum and the vertebral column, and strongly indicate that the hatchlings of these phylogenetically basal birds varied greatly in size and tempo of skeletal maturation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) depicts annual and decadal oscillatory modes of variability responsible for dry spells over the European continent. The NAO therefore holds a great potential to evaluate the role, as carbon sinks, of water-limited forests under climate change. However, uncertainties related to inconsistent responses of long-term forest productivity to NAO have so far hampered firm conclusions on its impacts. We hypothesize that, in part, such inconsistencies might have their origin in periodical sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean (i.e., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO). Here we show strong empirical evidence in support of this hypothesis using 120 years of periodical inventory data from Iberian pine forests. Our results point to AMO+ NAO+ and AMO-NAO- phases as being critical for forest productivity, likely due to decreased winter water balance and abnormally low winter temperatures, respectively. Our findings could be essential for the evaluation of ecosystem functioning vulnerabilities associated with increased climatic anomalies under unprecedented warming conditions in the Mediterranean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the impact of rare variants is essential to understanding human health. We analyze rare (MAF < 0.1%) variants against 4264 phenotypes in 49,960 exome-sequenced individuals from the UK Biobank and 1934 phenotypes (1821 overlapping with UK Biobank) in 21,866 members of the Healthy Nevada Project (HNP) cohort who underwent Exome + sequencing at Helix. After using our rare-variant-tailored methodology to reduce test statistic inflation, we identify 64 statistically significant gene-based associations in our meta-analysis of the two cohorts and 37 for phenotypes available in only one cohort. Singletons make significant contributions to our results, and the vast majority of the associations could not have been identified with a genotyping chip. Our results are available for interactive browsing in a webapp (https://ukb.research.helix.com). This comprehensive analysis illustrates the biological value of large, deeply phenotyped cohorts of unselected populations coupled with NGS data.

Pulses of tree mortality caused by drought have been reported recently in forests around the globe, but large-scale quantitative evidence is lacking for Europe. Analyzing high-resolution annual satellite-based canopy mortality maps from 1987 to 2016 we here show that excess forest mortality (i.e., canopy mortality exceeding the long-term mortality trend) is significantly related to drought across continental Europe. The relationship between water availability and mortality showed threshold behavior, with excess mortality increasing steeply when the integrated climatic water balance from March to July fell below −1.6 standard deviations of its long-term average. For −3.0 standard deviations the probability of excess canopy mortality was 91.6% (83.8–97.5%). Overall, drought caused approximately 500,000 ha of excess forest mortality between 1987 and 2016 in Europe. We here provide evidence that drought is an important driver of tree mortality at the continental scale, and suggest that a future increase in drought could trigger widespread tree mortality in Europe. Droughts pose an increasingly important threat to forests. Here the authors analyse a high-resolution Landsat-based dataset of forest canopy mortality in Europe over 1987–2016 to show that drought is already a major driver of tree mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extent to which species can balance out the loss of suitable habitats due to climate warming by shifting their ranges is an area of controversy. Here, we assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes can keep-up with projected shifts in their areas of suitable climate. Using a hybrid statistical-mechanistic approach accounting for spatial and temporal variations in both climatic and wind conditions, we simulate future migrations across Europe for 40 bryophyte species until 2050. The median ratios between predicted range loss vs expansion by 2050 across species and climate change scenarios range from 1.6 to 3.3 when only shifts in climatic suitability were considered, but increase to 34.7–96.8 when species dispersal abilities are added to our models. This highlights the importance of accounting for dispersal restrictions when projecting future distribution ranges and suggests that even highly dispersive organisms like bryophytes are not equipped to fully track the rates of ongoing climate change in the course of the next decades. Bryophytes tend to be sensitive to warming, but their high dispersal ability could help them track climate change. Here the authors combine correlative niche models and mechanistic dispersal models for 40 European bryophyte species under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, finding that most of these species are unlikely to track climate change over the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildlife diseases are contributing to the current Earth's sixth mass extinction; one disease, chytridiomycosis, has caused mass amphibian die-offs. While global spread of a hypervirulent lineage of the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (BdGPL) causes unprecedented loss of vertebrate diversity by decimating amphibian populations, its impact on amphibian communities is highly variable across regions. Here, we combine field data with in vitro and in vivo trials that demonstrate the presence of a markedly diverse variety of low virulence isolates of BdGPL in northern European amphibian communities. Pre-exposure to some of these low virulence isolates protects against disease following subsequent exposure to highly virulent BdGPL in midwife toads (Alytes obstetricans) and alters infection dynamics of its sister species B. salamandrivorans in newts (Triturus marmoratus), but not in salamanders (Salamandra salamandra). The key role of pathogen virulence in the complex host-pathogen-environment interaction supports efforts to limit pathogen pollution in a globalized world. The pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (BD) associated with widespread amphibian declines is present in Europe but has not consistently caused disease-induced declines in that region. Here, the authors suggest that an endemic strain of BD with low virulence may protect the hosts upon co-infection with more virulent strains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1970, the seventh pandemic of cholera (7 P) reached both Africa and Europe. Between 1970 and 2011, several European countries reported cholera outbreaks of a few to more than 2,000 cases. We report here a whole-genome analysis of 1,324 7 P V. cholerae El Tor (7 PET) isolates, including 172 from autochthonous sporadic or outbreak cholera cases occurring between 1970 and 2011 in Europe, providing insight into the spatial and temporal spread of this pathogen across Europe. In this work, we show that the 7 PET lineage was introduced at least eight times into two main regions: Eastern and Southern Europe. Greater recurrence of the disease was observed in Eastern Europe, where it persisted until 2011. It was introduced into this region from Southern Asia, often circulating regionally in the countries bordering the Black Sea, and in the Middle East before reaching Eastern Africa on several occasions. In Southern Europe, the disease was mostly seen in individual countries during the 1970s and was imported from North and West Africa, except in 1994, when cholera was imported into Albania and Italy from the Black Sea region. These results shed light on the geographic course of cholera during the seventh pandemic and highlight the role of humans in its global dissemination. Since 1970, several cholera outbreaks caused by the "seventh pandemic" (7PET) lineage have been reported in Europe. Here, the authors demonstrate that the outbreaks were caused by repeated introductions of 7PET into Europe, rather than local environmental sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Propionic acidemia/aciduria (PA) is an ultra-rare, life-threatening, inherited metabolic disorder caused by deficiency of the mitochondrial enzyme, propionyl-CoA carboxylase (PCC) composed of six alpha (PCCA) and six beta (PCCB) subunits. We herein report an enzyme replacement approach to treat PA using a combination of two messenger RNAs (mRNAs) (dual mRNAs) encoding both human PCCA (hPCCA) and PCCB (hPCCB) encapsulated in biodegradable lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) to produce functional PCC enzyme in liver. In patient fibroblasts, dual mRNAs encoded proteins localize in mitochondria and produce higher PCC enzyme activity vs. single (PCCA or PCCB) mRNA alone. In a hypomorphic murine model of PA, dual mRNAs normalize ammonia similarly to carglumic acid, a drug approved in Europe for the treatment of hyperammonemia due to PA. Dual mRNAs additionally restore functional PCC enzyme in liver and thus reduce primary disease-associated toxins in a dose-dependent manner in long-term 3- and 6-month repeat-dose studies in PA mice. Dual mRNAs are well-tolerated in these studies with no adverse findings. These studies demonstrate the potential of mRNA technology to chronically administer multiple mRNAs to produce large complex enzymes, with applicability to other genetic disorders. Propionic acidemia is a serious pediatric inherited disorder with no effective treatments. Here the authors demonstrate that delivering dual mRNAs as an enzyme replacement approach can be used as an effective therapy in a mouse model of propionic acidemia, with potential applicability to chronically administer multiple mRNAs in other genetic disorders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]