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Your search keyword '"Ward, Philip J."' showing total 9 results
Start Over Author "Ward, Philip J." Journal nature climate change
9 results on '"Ward, Philip J."'

1. Future climate risk from compound events

Author

Zscheischler, Jakob, Westra, Seth, van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M., Seneviratne, Sonia I., Ward, Philip J., Pitman, Andy, AghaKouchak, Amir, Bresch, David N., Leonard, Michael, Wahl, Thomas, and Zhang, Xuebin

Published
2018
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2. Global drivers of future river flood risk

Author

Winsemius, Hessel C., Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H., van Beek, Ludovicus P. H., Bierkens, Marc F. P., Bouwman, Arno, Jongman, Brenden, Kwadijk, Jaap C. J., Ligtvoet, Willem, Lucas, Paul L., van Vuuren, Detlef P., Ward, Philip J., Hydrologie, Environmental Sciences, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, Hydrologie, Environmental Sciences, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, Water Management, Water and Climate Risk, and Amsterdam Global Change Institute

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Flood myth, business.industry, River flood, Natural resource economics, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Environmental resource management, Climate change, Socioeconomic development, 02 engineering and technology, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 01 natural sciences, Gross domestic product, 020801 environmental engineering, Geography, Taverne, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate model, Environmental impact assessment, business, Risk assessment, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Global river flood risk is expected to increase substantially over coming decades due to both climate change and socioeconomic development. Model-based projections suggest that southeast Asia and Africa are at particular risk, highlighting the need to invest in adaptation measures. Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies1. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk projections that separate the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development. The projections are based on an ensemble of climate model outputs2, socio-economic scenarios3, and a state-of-the-art hydrologic river flood model combined with socio-economic impact models4,5. Globally, absolute damage may increase by up to a factor of 20 by the end of the century without action. Countries in Southeast Asia face a severe increase in flood risk. Although climate change contributes significantly to the increase in risk in Southeast Asia6, we show that it is dwarfed by the effect of socio-economic growth, even after normalization for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. African countries face a strong increase in risk mainly due to socio-economic change. However, when normalized to GDP, climate change becomes by far the strongest driver. Both high- and low-income countries may benefit greatly from investing in adaptation measures, for which our analysis provides a basis.

Published
2015

3. Author Correction: Future climate risk from compound events

Author

Zscheischler, Jakob, primary, Westra, Seth, additional, van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M., additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional, Ward, Philip J., additional, Pitman, Andy, additional, AghaKouchak, Amir, additional, Bresch, David N., additional, Leonard, Michael, additional, Wahl, Thomas, additional, and Zhang, Xuebin, additional

Published
2018
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5. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

Author

Ward, Philip J., primary, Jongman, Brenden, additional, Salamon, Peter, additional, Simpson, Alanna, additional, Bates, Paul, additional, De Groeve, Tom, additional, Muis, Sanne, additional, de Perez, Erin Coughlan, additional, Rudari, Roberto, additional, Trigg, Mark A., additional, and Winsemius, Hessel C., additional

Published
2015
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6. Reply to 'Statistics of flood risk'

Author

Jongman, Brenden, primary, Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan, additional, Feyen, Luc, additional, Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H., additional, Mechler, Reinhard, additional, Botzen, W. J. Wouter, additional, Bouwer, Laurens M., additional, Pflug, Georg, additional, Rojas, Rodrigo, additional, and Ward, Philip J., additional

Published
2014
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7. Shifting perspectives on coastal impacts and adaptation

Author

Brown, Sally, primary, Nicholls, Robert J., additional, Hanson, Susan, additional, Brundrit, Geoff, additional, Dearing, John A., additional, Dickson, Mark E., additional, Gallop, Shari L., additional, Gao, Shu, additional, Haigh, Ivan D., additional, Hinkel, Jochen, additional, Jiménez, José A., additional, Klein, Richard J. T., additional, Kron, Wolfgang, additional, Lázár, Attila N., additional, Neves, Claudio Freitas, additional, Newton, Alice, additional, Pattiaratachi, Charitha, additional, Payo, Andres, additional, Pye, Kenneth, additional, Sánchez-Arcilla, Agustín, additional, Siddall, Mark, additional, Shareef, Ali, additional, Tompkins, Emma L., additional, Vafeidis, Athanasios T., additional, van Maanen, Barend, additional, Ward, Philip J., additional, and Woodroffe, Colin D., additional

Published
2014
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8. Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods

Author

Jongman, Brenden, primary, Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan, additional, Feyen, Luc, additional, Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H., additional, Mechler, Reinhard, additional, Botzen, W. J. Wouter, additional, Bouwer, Laurens M., additional, Pflug, Georg, additional, Rojas, Rodrigo, additional, and Ward, Philip J., additional

Published
2014
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9. Global drivers of future river flood risk

Author

Winsemius, Hessel C., Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H., van Beek, Ludovicus P. H., Bierkens, Marc F. P., Bouwman, Arno, Jongman, Brenden, Kwadijk, Jaap C. J., Ligtvoet, Willem, Lucas, Paul L., van Vuuren, Detlef P., and Ward, Philip J.

Abstract

Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk projections that separate the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development. The projections are based on an ensemble of climate model outputs, socio-economic scenarios, and a state-of-the-art hydrologic river flood model combined with socio-economic impact models. Globally, absolute damage may increase by up to a factor of 20 by the end of the century without action. Countries in Southeast Asia face a severe increase in flood risk. Although climate change contributes significantly to the increase in risk in Southeast Asia, we show that it is dwarfed by the effect of socio-economic growth, even after normalization for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. African countries face a strong increase in risk mainly due to socio-economic change. However, when normalized to GDP, climate change becomes by far the strongest driver. Both high- and low-income countries may benefit greatly from investing in adaptation measures, for which our analysis provides a basis.

Published
2016
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