Search

Tens of thousands of species are threatened with extinction as a result of human activities. Here we explore how the extinction risks of terrestrial mammals and birds might change in the next 50 years. Future population growth and economic development are forecasted to impose unprecedented levels of extinction risk on many more species worldwide, especially the large mammals of tropical Africa, Asia and South America. Yet these threats are not inevitable. Proactive international efforts to increase crop yields, minimize land clearing and habitat fragmentation, and protect natural lands could increase food security in developing nations and preserve much of Earth's remaining biodiversity.

Theoretical ecology is largely founded on the principle of mass action, in which uncoordinated populations of predators and prey move in a random and well-mixed fashion across a featureless landscape. The conceptual core of this body of theory is the functional response, predicting the rate of prey consumption by individual predators as a function of predator and/or prey densities. This assumption is seriously violated in many ecosystems in which predators and/or prey form social groups. Here we develop a new set of group-dependent functional responses to consider the ecological implications of sociality and apply the model to the Serengeti ecosystem. All of the prey species typically captured by Serengeti lions (Panthera leo) are gregarious, exhibiting nonlinear relationships between prey-group density and population density. The observed patterns of group formation profoundly reduce food intake rates below the levels expected under random mixing, having as strong an impact on intake rates as the seasonal migratory behaviour of the herbivores. A dynamical system model parameterized for the Serengeti ecosystem (using wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) as a well-studied example) shows that grouping strongly stabilizes interactions between lions and wildebeest. Our results suggest that social groups rather than individuals are the basic building blocks around which predator-prey interactions should be modelled and that group formation may provide the underlying stability of many ecosystems.

Large carnivores inspire opposition to conservation efforts owing to their impact on livestock and human safety. Here we analyse the pattern of lion attacks over the past 15 years on humans in Tanzania, which has the largest population of lions in Africa, and find that they have killed more than 563 Tanzanians since 1990 and injured at least 308. Attacks have increased dramatically during this time: they peak at harvest time each year and are most frequent in areas with few prey apart from bush pigs (Potamochoerus larvatus), the most common nocturnal crop pest. Our findings provide an important starting point for devising strategies to reduce the risk to rural Tanzanians of lion attacks.

In most species, sport hunting of male trophy animals can only reduce overall population size when the rate of removal of males is so high that females can no longer be impregnated. However, where males provide extensive paternal care, the removal of even a few individuals could harm the population as a whole. In species such as lions, excessive trophy hunting could theoretically cause male replacements (and associated infanticide) to become sufficiently common to prevent cubs reaching adulthood. Here we simulate the population consequences of lion trophy hunting using a spatially explicit, individual-based, stochastic model parameterized with 40 years of demographic data from northern Tanzania. Although our simulations confirm that infanticide increases the risk of population extinction, trophy hunting could be sustained simply by hunting males above a minimum age threshold, and this strategy maximizes both the quantity and the quality of the long-term kill. We present a simple non-invasive technique for estimating lion age in populations lacking long-term records, and suggest that quotas would be unnecessary in any male-only trophy species where age determination could be reliably implemented.

In female mammals, fertility declines abruptly at an advanced age. The human menopause is one example, but reproductive cessation has also been documented in non-human primates, rodents, whales, dogs, rabbits, elephants and domestic livestock. The human menopause has been considered an evolutionary adaptation, assuming that elderly women avoid the increasing complications of continued childbirth to better nurture their current children and grandchildren. But an abrupt reproductive decline might be only a non-adaptive by-product of life-history patterns. Because so many individuals die from starvation, disease and predation, detrimental genetic traits can persist (or even be favoured) as long as their deleterious effects are delayed until an advanced age is reached, and, for a given pattern of mortality, there should be an age by which selection would be too weak to prevent the onset of reproductive senescence. We provide a systematic test of these alternatives using field data from two species in which grandmothers frequently engage in kin-directed behaviour. Both species show abrupt age-specific changes in reproductive performance that are characteristic of menopause. But elderly females do not suffer increased mortality costs of reproduction, nor do post-reproductive females enhance the fitness of grandchildren or older children. Instead, reproductive cessation appears to result from senescence.

Canine distemper virus (CDV) is thought to have caused several fatal epidemics in canids within the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem of East Africa, affecting silver-backed jackals (Canis mesomelas) and bat-eared foxes (Otocyon megalotis) in 1978 (ref. 1), and African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) in 1991 (refs 2, 3). The large, closely monitored Serengeti lion population was not affected in these epidemics. However, an epidemic caused by a morbillivirus closely related to CDV emerged abruptly in the lion population of the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania, in early 1994, resulting in fatal neurological disease characterized by grand mal seizures and myoclonus; the lions that died had encephalitis and pneumonia. Here we report the identification of CDV from these lions, and the close phylogenetic relationship between CDV isolates from lions and domestic dogs. By August 1994, 85% of the Serengeti lion population had anti-CDV antibodies, and the epidemic spread north to lions in the Maasai Mara National reserve, Kenya, and uncounted hyaenas, bat-eared foxes, and leopards were also affected.

Competitive interaction between females of same social group is characteristic of most primate species. In Old World monkeys, females of high social rank maintain priority of access to scarce resources and harass low-ranking companions. But different field studies have found differing correlations between female dominance and reproductive success: several populations show an advantage of rank whereas others do not. Although such variation may reflect divergent levels of predation, food availability or social stress in different environments, female competitive ability may also be balanced by significant reproductive costs and thus be subject to strong stabilizing selection. We report here that high-ranking female baboons (Papio cynocephalus anubis) at Gombe National Park, Tanzania, enjoy shorter interbirth intervals, improved infant survival, and accelerated maturation of their daughters. These advantages, however, are countered by a significantly higher probability of miscarriage, and a proportion of high-ranking females suffer from reduced fertility.