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This study provides a dataset and shows the spatial distribution of tsunami hazard in the South China Sea sourced from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data around the Manila subduction zone are used to invert the geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone, further used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude and applied to obtain a more reliable tsunami hazard assessment. The spatial distribution of tsunami wave height with a 1000-year return period is shown, and several high-hazard areas in the South China Sea are pointed out. Uncertainties in the seismic source are explored, including the slip heterogeneity, the upper limit of seismic magnitude and segmentation. The impact of the locking distribution and randomness of slip on tsunami hazard assessment demonstrates that the traditional uniform slip assumption significantly underestimates the tsunami hazard. Moreover, the assessment results involving the effect of the locking distribution should be more realistic and show a larger tsunami height than when only considering the stochastic slip in most areas, which should prompt coastal management agencies to enhance tsunami prevention awareness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Along the French Mediterranean coastlines, most of the studies dealing with tsunamis have focused on hazards, evacuations, or effects of awareness actions, as opposed to hazard perception and knowledge of alert declared locally by the population. To bridge this gap, in this study, data collection yielded 750 responses coming from 150 people living and/or working in the tsunami evacuation zones of five municipalities (e.g., Bandol, Bastia, Cannes, Six-Fours-les-Plages, Sanary-sur-Mer). Early findings confirmed the tendency to underestimate tsunami hazard and a misunderstanding of the alert process. Interestingly, age or location of respondents explained differences between the five surveyed municipalities – more so than gender and residency status. Discrepancies are also observed when we compare the rate of correct answers for similar questions addressed in other areas in the NEAMTWS (North-eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System) region, thus confirming local effects. More surprisingly, the respondents who well perceive the tsunami hazard are not those who have a good knowledge of alerts, and the awareness actions do not really impact the tsunami knowledge we evaluated. Also, the results of this study could help local authorities to develop future tsunami awareness actions and to determine more suitable strategies to be applied in the short term at local scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential of a full-margin rupture along the Cascadia subduction zone poses a significant threat over a populous region of North America. Previous probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment studies produced hazard curves based on simulated predictions of tsunami waves, either at low resolution or at high resolution for a local area or under limited ranges of scenarios or at a high computational cost to generate hundreds of scenarios at high resolution. We use the graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated tsunami simulator VOLNA-OP2 with a detailed representation of topographic and bathymetric features. We replace the simulator by a Gaussian process emulator at each output location to overcome the large computational burden. The emulators are statistical approximations of the simulator's behaviour. We train the emulators on a set of input–output pairs and use them to generate approximate output values over a six-dimensional scenario parameter space, e.g. uplift/subsidence ratio and maximum uplift, that represent the seabed deformation. We implement an advanced sequential design algorithm for the optimal selection of only 60 simulations. The low cost of emulation provides for additional flexibility in the shape of the deformation, which we illustrate here considering two families – buried rupture and splay-faulting – of 2000 potential scenarios. This approach allows for the first emulation-accelerated computation of probabilistic tsunami hazard in the region of the city of Victoria, British Columbia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is devoted to benchmarking the Multilayer-HySEA model using laboratory experimental data for landslide-generated tsunamis. This article deals with rigid slides, and the second part, in a companion paper, addresses granular slides. The US National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program (NTHMP) has proposed the experimental data used and established for the NTHMP Landslide Benchmark Workshop, held in January 2017 at Galveston (Texas). The first three benchmark problems proposed in this workshop deal with rigid slides. Rigid slides must be simulated as a moving bottom topography, and, therefore, they must be modeled as a prescribed boundary condition. These three benchmarks are used here to validate the Multilayer-HySEA model. This new HySEA model consists of an efficient hybrid finite-volume–finite-difference implementation on GPU architectures of a non-hydrostatic multilayer model. A brief description of model equations, dispersive properties, and the numerical scheme is included. The benchmarks are described and the numerical results compared against the lab-measured data for each of them. The specific aim is to validate this new code for tsunamis generated by rigid slides. Nevertheless, the overall objective of the current benchmarking effort is to produce a ready-to-use numerical tool for real-world landslide-generated tsunami hazard assessment. This tool has already been used to reproduce the Port Valdez, Alaska, 1964 and Stromboli, Italy, 2002 events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The final aim of the present work is to propose a NTHMP-benchmarked numerical tool for landslide-generated tsunami hazard assessment. To achieve this, the novel Multilayer-HySEA model is validated using laboratory experiment data for landslide-generated tsunamis. In particular, this second part of the work deals with granular slides, while the first part, in a companion paper, considers rigid slides. The experimental data used have been proposed by the US National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program (NTHMP) and were established for the NTHMP Landslide Benchmark Workshop, held in January 2017 at Galveston (Texas). Three of the seven benchmark problems proposed in that workshop dealt with tsunamis generated by rigid slides and are collected in the companion paper. Another three benchmarks considered tsunamis generated by granular slides. They are the subject of the present study. The seventh benchmark problem proposed the field case of Port Valdez, Alaska, 1964 and can be found in. In order to reproduce the laboratory experiments dealing with granular slides, two models need to be coupled: one for the granular slide and a second one for the water dynamics. The coupled model used consists of a new and efficient hybrid finite-volume–finite-difference implementation on GPU architectures of a non-hydrostatic multilayer model coupled with a Savage–Hutter model. To introduce the multilayer model more fluidly, we first present the equations of the one-layer model, Landslide-HySEA, with both strong and weak couplings between the fluid layer and the granular slide. Then, a brief description of the multilayer model equations and the numerical scheme used is included. The dispersive properties of the multilayer model can be found in the companion paper. Then, results for the three NTHMP benchmark problems dealing with tsunamis generated by granular slides are presented with a description of each benchmark problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nankai–Tonankai megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis pose significant risks to coastal communities in western and central Japan. Historically, this seismic region hosted many major earthquakes, and the current national tsunami hazard assessments in Japan consider megathrust events as those having moment magnitudes between 9.0 and 9.1. In responding to the lack of rigorous uncertainty analysis, this study presents an extensive tsunami hazard assessment for the Nankai–Tonankai Trough events, focusing on the southwestern Pacific region of Japan. A set of 1000 kinematic earthquake rupture models is generated via stochastic source modelling approaches, and Monte Carlo tsunami simulations are carried out by considering high-resolution grid data of 10 m and coastal defence structures. Significant advantages of the stochastic tsunami simulation methods include the enhanced capabilities to quantify the uncertainty associated with tsunami hazard assessments and to effectively visualize the results in an integrated manner. The results from the stochastic tsunami simulations can inform regional and local tsunami risk reduction actions in light of inevitable uncertainty associated with such tsunami hazard assessments and complement conventional deterministic tsunami scenarios and their hazard predictions, such as those developed by the Central Disaster Management Council of the Japanese Cabinet Office. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, time-dependent probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is performed for Tuzla, Istanbul, in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, using various earthquake scenarios of Prince Island Fault (PIF) within the next 50 and 100 years. The Monte Carlo (MC) simulation technique is used to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue, which includes earthquakes having moment magnitudes between Mw6.5 and 7.1. This interval defines the minimum and maximum magnitudes for the fault in the case of an entire fault rupture, which depends on the characteristic fault model. Based on this catalogue, probability of occurrence and associated tsunami wave heights are calculated for each event. The study associates the probabilistic approach with tsunami numerical modeling. The tsunami numerical code NAMI DANCE was used for tsunami simulations. According to the results of the analysis, distribution of probability of occurrence corresponding to tsunami hydrodynamic parameters is represented. Maximum positive and negative wave amplitudes show that tsunami wave heights up to 1 m have 65 % probability of exceedance for the next 50 years and this value increases by 85 % in the Tuzla region for the next 100 years. Inundation depth also exceeds 1 m in the region with probabilities of occurrence of 60 % and 80 % for the next 50 and 100 years, respectively. Moreover, probabilistic inundation maps are generated to investigate inundated zones and the amount of water penetrated inland. Probability of exceedance of 0.3 m wave height ranges between 10 % and 75 % according to these probabilistic inundation maps, and the maximum inundation distance calculated in the entire earthquake catalogue is 60 m in this test site. Furthermore, synthetic gauge points are selected along the western coast of Istanbul by including Tuzla coasts. Tuzla is one of the areas that shows high probability exceedance of 0.3 m wave height, which is around 90 %, for the next 50 years while this probability reaches up to more than 95 % for the next 100 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A tsunami caused by a flank collapse of the southwest part of the Anak Krakatau volcano occurred on 22 December 2018. The tsunami affected the coastal areas located at the edge of the Sunda Strait, Indonesia. To gain an understanding of the tsunami event, field surveys were conducted a month after the incident. The surveys included measurements of run-up height, inundation distance, tsunami direction, and sediment characteristics at 20 selected sites. The survey results revealed that the run-up height reached 9.2 m in Tanjungjaya and an inundation distance of 286.8 m was found at Cagar Alam, part of Ujung Kulon National Park. The tsunami propagated radially from Anak Krakatau and reached the coastal zone with a direction between 25 and 350 ∘ from the north. Sediment samples were collected at 27 points in tsunami deposits with a sediment thickness of 1.5–12.7 cm. The average distance from the coast of the area with significant sediment deposits and the deposit limit are 45 % and 73 % of the inundation distance, respectively. Sand sheets were sporadic, highly variable, and highly influenced by topography. Grain sizes in the deposit area were finer than those at their sources. The sizes ranged from fine sand to boulders, with medium sand and coarse sand being dominant. All sediment samples had a well-sorted distribution. An assessment of the boulder movements indicates that the tsunami run-up had minimum velocities of 4.0–4.5 m s -1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although tsunamis generated by submarine mass failure are not as common as those induced by submarine earthquakes, sometimes the generated tsunamis are higher than a seismic tsunami in the area close to the tsunami source, and the forecast is much more difficult. In the present study, reciprocal Green's functions (RGFs) are proposed as a useful tool in the forecast of submarine landslide tsunamis. The forcing in the continuity equation due to depth change in a landslide is represented by the temporal derivative of the water depth. After a convolution with reciprocal Green's function, the tsunami waveform can be obtained promptly. Thus, various tsunami scenarios can be considered once a submarine landslide happens, and a useful forecast can be formulated. When a submarine landslide occurs, the various possibilities for tsunami generation can be analyzed and a useful forecast can be devised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents improvements and the development of a postprocessing module for the regional-scale flood mapping tool, AutoRoute. The accuracy of this model to simulate low-, medium-, and high-flow-rate scenarios is demonstrated at seven test sites within the US. AutoRoute is one of the tools used to create high-resolution flood inundation maps at regional to continental scales, but it has previously only been tested using extreme flood events. Modifications to the AutoRoute model and postprocessing scripts are shown to improve accuracy (e.g., average F value increase of 17.5 % for low-flow events) and computational efficiency (simulation time reduced by over 40 %) when compared to previous versions. Although flood inundation results for low-flow events are shown to be comparable with published values (average F value of 63.3 %), the model results tend to be overestimated, especially in flatter terrain. Higher-flow scenarios tend to be more accurately simulated (average F value of 77.5 %). With improved computational efficiency and the enhanced ability to simulate both low- and high-flow scenarios, the AutoRoute model may be well suited to provide first-order estimates of flooding within an operational, regional- to continental-scale hydrologic modeling framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emergency medical service (EMS) response is extremely critical for pre-hospital lifesaving when disaster events occur. However, disasters increase the difficulty of rescue and may significantly increase the total travel time between dispatch and arrival, thereby increasing the pressure on emergency facilities. Hence, facility location decisions play a crucial role in improving the efficiency of rescue and service capacity. In order to avoid the failure of EMS facilities during disasters and meet the multiple requirements of demand points, we propose a multi-coverage optimal location model for EMS facilities based on the results of disaster impact simulation and prediction. To verify this model, we explicitly simulated the impacts of fluvial flooding events using the 1-D–2-D coupled flood inundation model FloodMap. The simulation results suggested that even low-magnitude fluvial flood events resulted in a decrease in the EMS response area. The integration of the model results with a geographical-information-system (GIS) analysis indicated that the optimization of the EMS locations reduced the delay in emergency responses caused by disasters and significantly increased the number of rescued people and the coverage of demand points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The estimate of an individual wave run-up is especially important for tsunami warning and risk assessment, as it allows for evaluating the inundation area. Here, as a model of tsunamis, we use the long single wave of positive polarity. The period of such a wave is rather long, which makes it different from the famous Korteweg–de Vries soliton. This wave nonlinearly deforms during its propagation in the ocean, which results in a steep wave front formation. Situations in which waves approach the coast with a steep front are often observed during large tsunamis, e.g. the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku tsunamis. Here we study the nonlinear deformation and run-up of long single waves of positive polarity in the conjoined water basin, which consists of the constant depth section and a plane beach. The work is performed numerically and analytically in the framework of the nonlinear shallow-water theory. Analytically, wave propagation along the constant depth section and its run up on a beach are considered independently without taking into account wave interaction with the toe of the bottom slope. The propagation along the bottom of constant depth is described by the Riemann wave, while the wave run-up on a plane beach is calculated using rigorous analytical solutions of the nonlinear shallow-water theory following the Carrier–Greenspan approach. Numerically, we use the finite-volume method with the second-order UNO2 reconstruction in space and the third-order Runge–Kutta scheme with locally adaptive time steps. During wave propagation along the constant depth section, the wave becomes asymmetric with a steep wave front. It is shown that the maximum run-up height depends on the front steepness of the incoming wave approaching the toe of the bottom slope. The corresponding formula for maximum run-up height, which takes into account the wave front steepness, is proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Italian Tsunami Alert Centre of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (Centro di Allerta Tsunami, hereinafter CAT-INGV) supported a computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) survey to investigate tsunami risk perception in two pilot regions of southern Italy. The survey was carried out on a stratified sample of 1021 interviewees representing about 3.2 million people living in 183 coastal municipalities of the two regions, namely Calabria and Apulia. The main goal of this research is to verify whether and how people's perception of tsunami hazard compares to the results of (PTHA) – probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (TSUMAPS-NEAM project; Basili et al., 2018). As shown by the results of this project, both investigated regions are characterised by high tsunami hazard. Nonetheless, the long return time of such events could lead people to consider the occurrence of a tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea to be very unlikely. The survey results reveal that people's risk perception is low: for almost half of the whole sample the occurrence of a tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea is considered quite unlikely, with a clear difference between Apulia and Calabria. In the latter region the risk perception is much higher than in the former, probably due to the shorter time elapsed since the last event. Also, belonging to different coastal areas For the purposes of this paper, the term "coastal area" refers to the part of the coastline defined by both seas and regions' limits, according to current geographical conventions. Tyrrhenian Calabria indicates the coastal region between the municipalities of Tortora and Scilla, Ionian Calabria spans from Reggio Calabria to Rocca Imperiale; Ionian Apulia from Ginosa to Castrignano del Capo, and Adriatic Apulia from Gagliano del Capo to Chieuti. appears to have a significant influence on the way tsunami hazard is conceived, having a stronger effect on risk characterisation: the interviewees of Tyrrhenian Calabria are indeed more likely to associate tsunami risk with volcanoes than the Ionian citizens. This is coherent considering the presence of active volcanoes and related tsunami precedents in the Tyrrhenian. Television emerged as the most relevant source of knowledge for almost 90 % of the sample, and the influence of media also results in the way tsunami risk is characterised. In particular, the survey showed that people's perception and understanding of tsunamis are affected by media accounts of large events, such as the 2004 Sumatra and the 2011 Japan tsunamis. At the same time, it is evident that the risk posed by smaller events is underrated. Furthermore, the survey's results show that the word "tsunami" occupies a different semantic space in comparison to the Italian traditional headword maremoto , with differences among sample strata. In other words, the same physical phenomenon would be understood in two different ways by younger, educated people and elders with a low education level. The results of this study, although limited to two regions, provide a first assessment of tsunami risk perception in Italy, also entailing important consequences for both risk communication practice and mitigation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=7.5 that occurred in Sulawesi, Indonesia, on 28 September 2018 triggered liquefaction and tsunamis that caused severe damage and many casualties. This paper reports the results of a post-tsunami field survey conducted by a team with members from Indonesia and Taiwan that began 13 d after the earthquake. The main purpose of this survey was to measure the run-up of tsunami waves and inundation and observe the damage caused by the tsunami. Measurements were made in 18 selected sites, most in Palu Bay. The survey results show that the run-up height and inundation distance reached 10.7 m in Tondo and 488 m in Layana. Inundation depths of 2 to 4 m were common at most sites and the highest was 8.4 m in Taipa. The arrival times of the tsunami waves were quite short and different for each site, typically about 3–8 min from the time of the main earthquake event. This study also describes the damage to buildings and infrastructure and coastal landslides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flood maps are needed for emergency response, research, and planning. The Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) technique is a low-complexity, terrain-based approach for inundation mapping using elevation data, discharge–height relationships, and streamflow inputs. The recent operational capacities of the NOAA National Water Model (NWM) and preprocessed HAND products from the University of Texas offer an operational framework for real-time and forecast flood guidance across the US. In this study, we evaluate the integrated National Water Model –Height Above Nearest Drainage (NWM–HAND) flood mapping approach using 28 remotely sensed inundation maps and 54 reach-level catchments. The results show the NWM–HAND method tends to underpredict inundated cells in 4th-order and lower-order reaches but does better with a slight tendency to overpredict in high-order reaches. An evaluation of the roughness coefficient used in the production of synthetic rating curves suggests it is the most important parameter for correcting these errors. Persistent inaccuracies do occur when NWM streamflow predictions are substantially biased (>60 % mean absolute error between NWM and observed streamflow) and in regions of low relief. Overall, the NWM–HAND method does not accurately capture inundated cells but is quite capable of highlighting regions likely to be at risk in 4th-order streams and higher. While NWM–HAND should be used with caution when identifying flood boundaries or making decisions of whether a cell is dry or wet, its applicability as a high-level guidance tool along larger rivers is noteworthy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remote sensing analysis is routinely used to map flooding extent either retrospectively or in near-real time. For flood emergency response, remote-sensing-based flood mapping is highly valuable as it can offer continued observational information about the flood extent over large geographical domains. Information about the floodwater depth across the inundated domain is important for damage assessment, rescue, and prioritizing of relief resource allocation, but cannot be readily estimated from remote sensing analysis. The Floodwater Depth Estimation Tool (FwDET) was developed to augment remote sensing analysis by calculating water depth based solely on an inundation map with an associated digital elevation model (DEM). The tool was shown to be accurate and was used in flood response activations by the Global Flood Partnership. Here we present a new version of the tool, FwDET v2.0, which enables water depth estimation for coastal flooding. FwDET v2.0 features a new flood boundary identification scheme which accounts for the lack of confinement of coastal flood domains at the shoreline. A new algorithm is used to calculate the local floodwater elevation for each cell, which improves the tool's runtime by a factor of 15 and alleviates inaccurate local boundary assignment across permanent water bodies. FwDET v2.0 is evaluated against physically based hydrodynamic simulations in both riverine and coastal case studies. The results show good correspondence, with an average difference of 0.18 and 0.31 m for the coastal (using a 1 m DEM) and riverine (using a 10 m DEM) case studies, respectively. A FwDET v2.0 application of using remote-sensing-derived flood maps is presented for three case studies. These case studies showcase FwDET v2.0 ability to efficiently provide a synoptic assessment of floodwater. Limitations include challenges in obtaining high-resolution DEMs and increases in uncertainty when applied for highly fragmented flood inundation domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water level in semi-enclosed bays, landward of barrier islands, is mainly driven by offshore sea level fluctuations that are modulated by bay geometry and bathymetry, causing spatial variability in the ensuing response (transfer). Local wind setup can have a complementary role that depends on wind speed, fetch, and relative orientation of the wind direction and the bay. Bay area and inlet geometry and bathymetry primarily regulate the magnitude of the transfer between open ocean and bay. Tides and short-period offshore oscillations are more damped in the bays than longer-lasting offshore fluctuations, such as a storm surge and sea level rise. We compare observed and modeled water levels at stations in a mid-Atlantic bay (Barnegat Bay) with offshore water level proxies. Observed water levels in Barnegat Bay are compared and combined with model results from the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system to evaluate the spatial structure of the water level transfer. Analytical models based on the dimensional characteristics of the bay are used to combine the observed data and the numerical model results in a physically consistent approach. Model water level transfers match observed values at locations inside the bay in the storm frequency band (transfers ranging from 50 %–100 %) and tidal frequencies (10 %–55 %). The contribution of frequency-dependent local setup caused by wind acting along the bay is also considered. The wind setup effect can be comparable in magnitude to the offshore transfer forcing during intense storms. The approach provides transfer estimates for locations inside the bay where observations were not available, resulting in a complete spatial characterization. An extension of the methodology that takes advantage of the ADCIRC tidal database for the east coast of the United States allows for the expansion of the approach to other bay systems. Detailed spatial estimates of water level transfer can inform decisions on inlet management and contribute to the assessment of current and future flooding hazard in back-barrier bays and along mainland shorelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 1783 Scilla landslide–tsunami (Calabria, southern Italy) is a well-studied event that caused more than 1500 fatalities on the beaches close to the town. This paper complements a previous work that was based on numerical simulations and was focused on the very local effects of the tsunami in Scilla. In this study we extend the computational domain to cover a wider portion of western Calabria and northeastern Sicily, including the western side of the Straits of Messina. This investigation focuses on Capo Peloro area (the easternmost cape of Sicily), where the highest tsunami effects outside Scilla were reported. Important tsunami observations, such as the wave height reaching 6 m at Torre degli Inglesi and flooding that reached over 600 m inland, have been successfully modeled but only by means of a high-resolution (10 m) topo-bathymetric grid, since coarser grids were inadequate for the purpose. Interestingly, the inundation of the small lake of Pantano Piccolo could not be reproduced by using today's coastal morphology, since a coastal dune now acts as a barrier against tsunamis. Historical analysis suggests that this dune was not in place at the time of the tsunami occurred and that a ground depression extending from the lake to the northern coast is a remnant of an ancient channel that was used as a pathway in Roman times. The removal of such an obstacle and the remodeling of the coeval morphology allows the simulations to reproduce the tsunami penetration up to the lake, thus supporting the hypothesis that the 1783 tsunami entered the lake following the Roman channel track. A further result of this study is that the computed regional tsunami propagation pattern provides a useful hint for assessing tsunami hazards in the Straits of Messina area, which is one of the most exposed areas to tsunami threats in Italy and in the Mediterranean Sea overall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismogenic tsunami hazard assessments are highly dependent on the reliability of earthquake source models. Here in a study of the Manila subduction zone (MSZ) system, we combine the geological characteristics of the subducting plate, geometry, and coupling state of the subduction interface to propose a series of fault rupture scenarios. We divide the subduction zone into three rupture segments: 14–16, 16–19, and 19–21.7 ∘ N inferred from geological structures associated with the down-going Sunda plate. Each of these segments is capable of generating earthquakes of a magnitude between Mw=8.5+ and Mw=9+ , assuming a 1000-year seismic return period as suggested by previous studies. The most poorly constrained segment of the MSZ lies between 19 and 21.7 ∘ N, and here we use both local geological structures and characteristics of other subduction zone earthquakes around the world, to investigate the potential rupture characteristics of this segment. We consider multiple rupture modes for tsunamigenic earthquake and megathrust-splay fault earthquakes. These rupture models facilitate an improved understanding of the potential tsunami hazard in the South China Sea (SCS). Hydrodynamic simulations demonstrate that coastlines surrounding the SCS could be devastated by tsunami waves up to 10 m if large megathrust earthquakes occur in these segments. The regions most prone to these hazards include west Luzon of Philippines, southern Taiwan, southeastern China, central Vietnam, and Palawan Island. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fourteen years ago, the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami demonstrated the destructional capability of tsunamis to the entire world. Since then, many research programs have been initiated to try to understand the phenomenon and its related hazards better and to improve the early warning systems for exposed coastal populations. Pacific Islands Countries and Territories (PICTs) are especially vulnerable to tsunamis. Amongst them, New Caledonia is a French overseas territory located in the Southwest Pacific and exposed to several tsunami sources. In 2010, a catalogue of tsunamis that were visually observed or measured in New Caledonia was published. Since this first study, several events occurred between 2009 and 2019, and an update of this catalogue was necessary within the framework of a tsunami hazard assessment project in New Caledonia (TSUCAL). To complete this catalogue, a decision table has been designed to select potential tsunamigenic events within the USGS earthquake database, using criteria on the distance to New Caledonia, the magnitude and the hypocenter depth. Then a cross-comparison between these earthquakes, the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) tsunami catalogue and local tide gauge records provided 25 events that were recorded in New Caledonia for the period from 30 September 2009 to 10 January 2019. These events are added to the 12 events reported with certainty during previous studies, leading to a number of 37 tsunamis triggered by earthquakes reported or recorded in New Caledonia since 1875. Six of them have been identified only thanks to local tide gauges, supporting the fact that instrumental recording of tsunamis is paramount for tsunami hazard studies, from early warning to the validation of coastal models. In addition, unpublished tide gauge data are provided for the 1960 Chile tsunami. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The consideration of uncertainties in flood risk assessment has received increasing attention over the last 2 decades. However, the assessment is not reported in practice due to the lack of best practices and too wide uncertainty bounds. We present a method to constrain the model roughness based on measured water levels and reduce the uncertainty bounds of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Results show that the maximum uncertainty in roughness generated an uncertainty bound in the water level of 1.26 m (90 % confidence interval) and by constraining roughness, the bounds can be reduced as much as 0.92 m. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of volcanic flow hazards in a probabilistic framework centers around systematic experimental numerical modeling of the hazardous phenomenon and the subsequent generation and interpretation of a probabilistic hazard map (PHM). For a given volcanic flow (e.g., lava flow, lahar, pyroclastic flow, ash cloud), the PHM is typically interpreted as the point-wise probability of inundation by flow material. In the current work, we present new methods for calculating spatial representations of the mean, standard deviation, median, and modal locations of the hazard's boundary as ensembles of many deterministic runs of a physical model. By formalizing its generation and properties, we show that a PHM may be used to construct these statistical measures of the hazard boundary which have been unrecognized in previous probabilistic hazard analyses. Our formalism shows that a typical PHM for a volcanic flow not only gives the point-wise inundation probability, but also represents a set of cumulative distribution functions for the location of the inundation boundary with a corresponding set of probability density functions. These distributions run over curves of steepest probability gradient ascent on the PHM. Consequently, 2-D space curves can be constructed on the map which represents the mean, median, and modal locations of the likely inundation boundary. These curves give well-defined answers to the question of the likely boundary location of the area impacted by the hazard. Additionally, methods of calculation for higher moments including the standard deviation are presented, which take the form of map regions surrounding the mean boundary location. These measures of central tendency and variance add significant value to spatial probabilistic hazard analyses, giving a new statistical description of the probability distributions underlying PHMs. The theory presented here may be used to aid construction of improved hazard maps, which could prove useful for planning and emergency management purposes. This formalism also allows for application to simplified processes describable by analytic solutions. In that context, the connection between the PHM, its moments, and the underlying parameter variation is explicit, allowing for better source parameter estimation from natural data, yielding insights about natural controls on those parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Site-specific seismic probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (SPTHA) is a computationally demanding task, as it requires, in principle, a huge number of high-resolution numerical simulations for producing probabilistic inundation maps. We implemented an efficient and robust methodology using a filtering procedure to reduce the number of numerical simulations needed while still allowing for a full treatment of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Moreover, to avoid biases in tsunami hazard assessment, we developed a strategy to identify and separately treat tsunamis generated by near-field earthquakes. Indeed, the coseismic deformation produced by local earthquakes necessarily affects tsunami intensity, depending on the scenario size, mechanism and position, as coastal uplift or subsidence tends to diminish or increase the tsunami hazard, respectively. Therefore, we proposed two parallel filtering schemes in the far- and the near-field, based on the similarity of offshore tsunamis and hazard curves and on the similarity of the coseismic fields, respectively. This becomes mandatory as offshore tsunami amplitudes can not represent a proxy for the coastal inundation in the case of near-field sources. We applied the method to an illustrative use case at the Milazzo oil refinery (Sicily, Italy). We demonstrate that a blind filtering procedure can not properly account for local sources and would lead to a nonrepresentative selection of important scenarios. For the specific source–target configuration, this results in an overestimation of the tsunami hazard, which turns out to be correlated to dominant coastal uplift. Different settings could produce either the opposite or a mixed behavior along the coastline. However, we show that the effects of the coseismic deformation due to local sources can not be neglected and a suitable correction has to be employed when assessing local-scale SPTHA, irrespective of the specific signs of coastal displacement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme cold weather events, such as the winter of 1962/63, the third coldest winter ever recorded in the Central England Temperature record, or more recently the winter of 2010/11, have significant consequences for the society and economy. This paper assesses the probability of such extreme cold weather across the United Kingdom (UK), as part of a probabilistic catastrophe model for insured losses caused by the bursting of pipes. A statistical model is developed in order to model the extremes of the Air Freezing Index (AFI), which is a common measure of the magnitude and duration of freezing temperatures. A novel approach in the modelling of the spatial dependence of the hazard has been followed which takes advantage of the vine copula methodology. The method allows complex dependencies to be modelled, especially between the tails of the AFI distributions, which is important to assess the extreme behaviour of such events. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and of anthropogenic climate change on the frequency of UK cold winters has also been taken into account. According to the model, the occurrence of extreme cold events, such as the 1962/63 winter, has decreased approximately 2 times during the course of the 20th century as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Furthermore, the model predicts that such an event is expected to become more uncommon, about 2 times less frequent, by the year 2030. Extreme cold spells in the UK have been found to be heavily modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as well. A cold event is estimated to be ≈3 –4 times more likely to occur during its negative phase than its positive phase. However, considerable uncertainty exists in these results, owing mainly to the short record length and the large interannual variability of the AFI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bangladesh, one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, has a dynamic delta with 123 polders protected by earthen dikes. Cyclone-induced storm surges cause severe damage to these polders by overtopping and breaching the dikes. A total of 19 major tropical storms have hit the coast in the last 50 years, and the storm frequency is likely to increase due to climate change. The present paper presents an investigation of the inundation pattern in a protected area behind dikes due to floods caused by storm surges and identifies possible critical locations of dike breaches. Polder 48 in the coastal region, also known as Kuakata, was selected as the study area. A HEC-RAS 1-D–2-D hydrodynamic model was developed to simulate inundation of the polder under different scenarios. Scenarios were developed by considering tidal variations, the angle of the cyclone at landfall, possible dike breach locations and sea level rise due to climate change according to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A storm surge for a cyclone event with a 1-in-25-year return period was considered for all the scenarios. The primary objective of this research was to present a methodology for identifying the critical location of dike breaching, generating a flood risk map (FRM) and a probabilistic flood map (PFM) for the breaching of dikes during a cyclone. The critical location of the dike breach among the chosen possible locations was identified by comparing the inundation extent and damage due to flooding corresponding to the developed scenarios. A FRM corresponding to the breaching in the critical location was developed, which indicated that settlements adjacent to the canals in the polders were exposed to higher risk. A PFM was developed using the simulation results corresponding to the developed scenarios, which was used to recommend the need of appropriate land use zoning to minimize the vulnerability to flooding. The developed hydrodynamic model can be used to forecast inundation, to identify critical locations of the dike requiring maintenance and to study the effect of climate change on flood inundation in the study area. The frequency and intensity of the cyclones around the world are likely to increase due to climate change, which will require resource-intensive improvement of existing or new protection structures for the deltas. The identification and prioritization of the maintenance of critical locations of dike breaching can potentially prevent a disaster. The use of non-structural tools such as land use zoning with the help of flood risk maps and probabilistic flood maps has the potential to reduce risk and damage. The method presented in this research can potentially be utilized for deltas around the world to reduce vulnerability and flood risk due to dike breaching caused by cyclone-induced storm surge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The segment of the Africa–Eurasia plate boundary between the Gloria Fault and the Strait of Gibraltar has been the setting of significant tsunamigenic earthquakes. However, their precise location and rupture mechanism remain poorly understood. The investigation of each event contributes to a better understanding of the structure of this diffuse plate boundary and ultimately leads to a better evaluation of the seismic and tsunami hazard. The 31 March 1761 event is one of the few known transatlantic tsunamis. Macroseismic data and tsunami travel times were used in previous studies to assess its source area. However, no one discussed the geological source of this event. In this study, we present a reappraisal of tsunami data to show that the observations data set is compatible with a geological source close to Coral Patch and Ampere seamounts. We constrain the rupture mechanism with plate kinematics and the tectonic setting of the area. This study favours the hypothesis that the 1761 event occurred in the southwest of the likely location of the 1 November 1755 earthquake in a slow deforming compressive regime driven by the dextral transpressive collision between Africa and Eurasia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a fast and accurate tsunami real-time operational model to compute across ocean-wide simulations completely on GPU (graphics processing unit). The spherical shallow water equations are solved using the method of characteristics and upwind cubic interpolation to provide high accuracy and stability. A customized, user interactive, tree-based mesh-refinement method is implemented based on distance from the coast and focal areas to generate a memory-efficient domain with resolutions of up to 50 m. Three specialized and optimized GPU kernels (Wet, Wall and Inundation) are developed to compute the domain block mesh. Multi-GPU is used to further speed up the computation, and a weighted Hilbert space-filling curve is used to produce a balanced workload. Hindcasting of the 2004 Indonesian tsunami is presented to validate and compare the agreement of the arrival times and main peaks at several gauges. Inundation maps are also produced for Kamala and Hambantota to validate the accuracy of our model. Test runs on three Tesla P100 cards on Tsubame 3.0 could fully simulate 10 h in just under 10 min wall-clock time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The numerical modeling of tsunami inundation that incorporates the built environment of coastal communities is challenging for both 2-D and 3-D depth-integrated models, not only in modeling the flow but also in predicting forces on coastal structures. For depth-integrated 2-D models, inundation and flooding in this region can be very complex with variation in the vertical direction caused by wave breaking on shore and interactions with the built environment, and the model may not be able to produce enough detail. For 3-D models, a very fine mesh is required to properly capture the physics, dramatically increasing the computational cost and rendering impractical the modeling of some problems. In this paper, comparisons are made between Geo- Claw, a depth-integrated 2-D model based on the nonlinear shallow-water equations (NSWEs), and OpenFOAM, a 3-D model based on Reynolds-averaged Navier--Stokes (RANS) equation for tsunami inundation modeling. The two models were first validated against existing experimental data of a bore impinging onto a single square column. Then they were used to simulate tsunami inundation of a physical model of Seaside, Oregon. The resulting flow parameters from the models are compared and discussed, and these results are used to extrapolate tsunami-induced force predictions. It was found that the 2-D model did not accurately capture the important details of the flow near initial impact due to the transiency and large vertical variation of the flow. Tuning the drag coefficient of the 2-D model worked well to predict tsunami forces on structures in simple cases, but this approach was not always reliable in complicated cases. The 3-D model was able to capture transient characteristic of the flow, but at a much higher computational cost; it was found this cost can be alleviated by subdividing the region into reasonably sized subdomains without loss of accuracy in critical regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The last earthquake that affected the city of Coquimbo took place in September 2015 and had a magnitude of Mw D 8:3, resulting in localized damage in low-lying areas of the city. In addition, another seismic gap north of the 2015 earthquake rupture area has been identified; therefore, a significant earthquake (Mw D 8:2 to 8.5) and tsunami could occur in the near future. The present paper develops a tsunami fragility curve for the city of Coquimbo based on field survey data and tsunami numerical simulations. The inundation depth of the 2015 Chile tsunami in Coquimbo was estimated by means of numerical simulation with the Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs (NEOWAVE) model and five nested grids with a maximum grid resolution of 10 m. The fragility curve exhibited behavior similar to that of other curves in flat areas in Japan, where little damage was observed at relatively high inundation depths. In addition, it was observed that Coquimbo experienced less damage than Dichato (Chile); in fact, at an inundation depth of 2 m, Dichato had a ~ 75% probability of damage, while Coquimbo proved to have only a 20% probability. The new fragility curve was used to estimate the damage by possible future tsunamis in the area. The damage assessment showed that 50% of the structures in the low-lying area of Coquimbo have a high probability of damage in the case of a tsunami generated off the coast of the study area if the city is rebuilt with the same types of structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many coastal cities around the world are threatened by tsunamis; some of these events have caused great impacts in recent times. The loss of human lives during these events is the main cause of concern of the authorities, and evacuation planning has been recognized as one of the best tools for safeguarding the population. In this context, urban design appears to be critical for the execution of prompt and efficient evacuation processes to safe areas; however, evacuation assessment has been traditionally carried out at a large urban scale, mostly taking into consideration urban morphology and connectivity. In the present work, urban spaces available for tsunami evacuation are explored in detail by developing a methodology to identify and classify urban micro-vulnerabilities that may reduce the capacity of the evacuation routes and hinder evacuees' safety. The method is applied to the Chilean city of Iquique, affected by an earthquake and subsequent tsunami in 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chile is highly exposed to tsunami hazard from large earthquakes often occurring along the Peru-Chile trench, like the 16 September 2015 event. However, only recently has tsunami hazard been considered in the land-use policies of the Chilean coast. These new regulations must enforce the identification of the most vulnerable sectors of the Chilean coastal cities. This paper analyses and validates the two latest versions of the Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment (PTVA) model in the 2015 tsunami reconstructed scenario in the cities of La Serena and Coquimbo. Both models result in a similar number of very high and high relative vulnerability index (RVI) scores. However, the less vulnerable categories do not show a similar trend and the PTVA-4 model obtains a larger number of minor and average RVI scores. When compared to the damages caused by the tsunami, the PTVA-3 shows a more similar distribution to the actual damages than that obtained by the PTVA-4 model, which shows a more concentrated distribution of the RVI scores. These results suggest this version of the model should be used in Chilean coastal cities in future land-use or mitigation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Māori oral histories from the northern South Island of Aotearoa-New Zealand provide details of ancestral experience with tsunami(s) on, and surrounding, Rangitoto (D'Urville Island). Applying an inductive-based methodology informed by "collaborative storytelling", exchanges with key informants from the Māori kin groups of Ngāti Koata and Ngāti Kuia reveal that a "folk tale", published in 1907, could be compared to and combined with active oral histories to provide insights into past catastrophic saltwater inundations. Such histories reference multiple layers of experience and meaning, from memorials to ancestral figures and their accomplishments to claims about place, authority and knowledge. Members of Ngāti Koata and Ngāti Kuia, who permitted us to record some of their histories, share the view that there are multiple benefits to be gained by learning from differences in knowledge, practice and belief. This work adds to scientific as well as M&#257ori understandings about tsunami hazards (and histories). It also demonstrates that to engage with Māori oral histories (and the people who genealogically link to such stories) requires close attention to a politics of representation, in both past recordings and current ways of retelling, as well as sensitivities to the production of "new" and "plural" knowledges. This paper makes these narratives available to a new audience, including those families who no longer have access to them, and recites these in ways that might encourage plural knowledge development and coexistence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major tsunami disasters often cause great damage in the first few hours following an earthquake. The possible severity of such events requires preparations to prevent tsunami disasters or mitigate them. This paper is an attempt to develop a decision support system for rapid tsunami evacuation for local decision makers. Based on the numerical results database of tsunami disasters, this system can quickly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time. Because numerical models are calculated in advance, this system can reduce decision-making time. Population distribution, as a vulnerability factor, was analyzed to identify areas of high risk for tsunami disasters. Combined with spatial data, this system can comprehensively analyze the dynamic and static evacuation process and identify problems that negatively impact evacuation, thus supporting the decision-making for tsunami evacuation in high-risk areas. When an earthquake and tsunami occur, this system can rapidly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time and provide information to assist with tsunami evacuation operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the tsunami hazard in the remote French territory of Wallis and Futuna, Southwest Pacific, using the Gerris flow solver to produce numerical models of tsunami generation, propagation and inundation. Wallis consists of the inhabited volcanic island of Uvéa that is surrounded by a lagoon delimited by a barrier reef. Futuna and the island of Alofi form the Horn Archipelago located ca. 240 km east of Wallis. They are surrounded by a narrow fringing reef. Futuna and Alofi emerge from the North Fiji Transform Fault that marks the seismically active Pacific-Australia plate boundary. We generated 15 tsunami scenarios. For each, we calculated maximum wave elevation (MWE), inundation distance and expected time of arrival (ETA). The tsunami sources were local, regional and distant earthquake faults located along the Pacific Rim. In Wallis, the outer reef may experience 6.8 m-high MWE. Uvéa is protected by the barrier reef and the lagoon, but inundation depths of 2-3 m occur in several coastal areas. In Futuna, flow depths exceeding 2 m are modelled in several populated areas, and have been confirmed by a post-September 2009 South Pacific tsunami survey. The channel between the islands of Futuna and Alofi amplified the 2009 tsunami, which resulted in inundation distance of almost 100 m and MWE of 4.4 m. This first ever tsunami hazard modelling study of Wallis and Futuna compares well with palaeotsunamis recognised on both islands and observation of the impact of the 2009 South Pacific tsunami. The study provides evidence for the mitigating effect of barrier and fringing reefs from tsunamis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, heavy rainfall conditions have caused disasters around the world. To prevent losses by floods, levees have often been constructed in inundation-prone areas. This study performed reliability analyses for the Chiuliao First Levee in southern Taiwan. The failure-related parameters were the water level, the scouring depth, and the in situ friction angle. Three major failure mechanisms were considered: the slope sliding failure of the levee and the sliding and overturning failures of the retaining wall. When the variability of the in situ friction angle and the scouring depth are considered for various flood return periods, the variations of the factor of safety for the different failure mechanisms show that the retaining wall sliding and overturning failures are more sensitive to the change of the friction angle. When the flood return period is greater than 2 years, the levee could fail with slope sliding for all values of the water level difference. The results of levee stability analysis considering the variability of different parameters could aid engineers in designing the levee cross sections, especially with potential failure mechanisms in mind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tsunami generated on 12 July 1993 by the Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki earthquake (Mw = 7.8) brought about a maximum wave run-up of 31.7 m, the highest recorded in Japan during the 20th century, near the Monai Valley on the west coast of Okushiri Island (Hokkaido Tsunami Survey Group, 1993). To reproduce the extreme run-up height, the three-dimensional non-hydrostatic model (Flow Science, 2012), referred to here as the NH-model, has been locally applied with open boundary conditions supplied in an offline manner by the three-dimensional hydrostatic model (Ribeiro et al., 2011), referred to here as the H-model. The area of the H-model is sufficiently large to cover the entire fault region with one-way nested multiple domains. For the initial water deformation, Okada's fault model (1985) using the sub-fault parameters is applied. Three NH-model experiments have been performed, namely without islands, with one island and with two islands. The experiments with one island and with two islands give rise to values close to the observation with maximum runup heights of about 32.3 and 30.8 m, respectively, while the experiment without islands gives rise to about 25.2 m. The diffraction of the tsunami wave primarily by Muen Island, located in the south, and the southward topographic guiding of the tsunami run-up at the coast are, as in the laboratory simulation (Yoneyama et al., 2002), found to result in the extreme run-up height near Monai Valley. The presence of Hira Island enhances the diffraction of tsunami waves but its contribution to the extreme run-up height is marginal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Moroccan Mediterranean coast is located in one of the area's most vulnerable to extreme weather events or tsunami hazards. The objective of this research is to reconstruct the historical extreme submersion-event record using sea-induced deposits preserved in coastal lagoon. The Nador lagoon is the largest Moroccan lagoon (115 km²). It is located along the western Mediterranean, which has a high cyclogenetic character and is exposed to tsunamis from the Alboran Sea. The sandy barrier which separates the lagoon from the Mediterranean Sea is marked by much overwash, which indicate how intensely it has been exposed to the adverse sea events through history. Using the UWITEC© gravity coring platform, an undisturbed MC4.5 core (1.15mlong) was successfully sampled in the studied lagoon. To identify extreme sea events, a multi-proxy approach was applied combining sedimentological and geochemical data. Three paleoevents were identified; all of them are concentrated over the last 500 years, and the most recent event corresponds to the 1889 storm. For the others deposits, it is difficult to determine exactly their origin; however, the high frequency of storm events over the relevant period and the absence of historical tsunamis evidence is more in favor of the meteorological origin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Salvador is the smallest and most densely populated country in Central America; its coast has an approximate length of 320 km, 29 municipalities and more than 700 000 inhabitants. In El Salvador there were 15 recorded tsunamis between 1859 and 2012, 3 of them causing damages and resulting in hundreds of victims. Hazard assessment is commonly based on propagation numerical models for earthquake-generated tsunamis and can be approached through both probabilistic and deterministic methods. A deterministic approximation has been applied in this study as it provides essential information for coastal planning and management. The objective of the research was twofold: on the one hand the characterization of the threat over the entire coast of El Salvador, and on the other the computation of flooding maps for the three main localities of the Salvadorian coast. For the latter we developed high-resolution flooding models. For the former, due to the extension of the coastal area, we computed maximum elevation maps, and from the elevation in the near shore we computed an estimation of the run-up and the flooded area using empirical relations. We have considered local sources located in the Middle America Trench, characterized seismotectonically, and distant sources in the rest of Pacific Basin, using historical and recent earthquakes and tsunamis. We used a hybrid finite differences--finite volumes numerical model in this work, based on the linear and non-linear shallow water equations, to simulate a total of 24 earthquake-generated tsunami scenarios. Our results show that at the western Salvadorian coast, run-up values higher than 5m are common, while in the eastern area, approximately from La Libertad to the Gulf of Fonseca, the run-up values are lower. The more exposed areas to flooding are the lowlands in the Lempa River delta and the Barra de Santiago Western Plains. The results of the empirical approximation used for the whole country are similar to the results obtained with the high-resolution numerical modelling, being a good and fast approximation to obtain preliminary tsunami hazard estimations. In Acajutla and La Libertad, both important tourism centres being actively developed, flooding depths between 2 and 4m are frequent, accompanied with high and very high person instability hazard. Inside the Gulf of Fonseca the impact of the waves is almost negligible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays numerical models are a powerful tool in tsunami research since they can be used (i) to reconstruct modern and historical events, (ii) to cast new light on tsunami sources by inverting tsunami data and observations, (iii) to build scenarios in the frame of tsunami mitigation plans, and (iv) to produce forecasts of tsunami impact and inundation in systems of early warning. In parallel with the general recognition of the importance of numerical tsunami simulations, the demand has grown for reliable tsunami codes, validated through tests agreed upon by the tsunami community. This paper presents the tsunami code UBO-TSUFD that has been developed at the University of Bologna, Italy, and that solves the non-linear shallow water (NSW) equations in a Cartesian frame, with inclusion of bottom friction and exclusion of the Coriolis force, by means of a leapfrog (LF) finite-difference scheme on a staggered grid and that accounts for moving boundaries to compute sea inundation and withdrawal at the coast. Results of UBO-TSUFD applied to four classical benchmark problems are shown: two benchmarks are based on analytical solutions, one on a plane wave propagating on a flat channel with a constant slope beach; and one on a laboratory experiment. The code is proven to perform very satisfactorily since it reproduces quite well the benchmark theoretical and experimental data. Further, the code is applied to a realistic tsunami case: a scenario of a tsunami threatening the coasts of eastern Sicily, Italy, is defined and discussed based on the historical tsunami of 11 January 1693, i.e. one of the most severe events in the Italian history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to investigate the effectiveness of sea-defense structures in preventing/reducing the tsunami overtopping as well as evaluating the resulting tsunami impact at El Jadida, Morocco. Different tsunami wave conditions are generated by considering various earthquake scenarios of magnitudes ranging from Mw = 8.0 to Mw = 8.6. These scenarios represent the main active earthquake faults in the SW Iberia margin and are consistent with two past events that generated tsunamis along the Atlantic coast of Morocco. The behaviour of incident tsunami waves when interacting with coastal infrastructures is analysed on the basis of numerical simulations of near-shore tsunami waves' propagation. Tsunami impact at the affected site is assessed through computing inundation and current velocity using a high-resolution digital terrain model that incorporates bathy-metric, topographic and coastal structures data. Results, in terms of near-shore tsunami propagation snapshots, waves' interaction with coastal barriers, and spatial distributions of flow depths and speeds, are presented and discussed in light of what was observed during the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. Predicted results show different levels of impact that different tsunami wave conditions could generate in the region. Existing coastal barriers around the El Jadida harbour succeeded in reflecting relatively small waves generated by some scenarios, but failed in preventing the overtopping caused by waves from others. Considering the scenario highly impacting the El Jadida coast, significant inundations are computed at the sandy beach and unprotected areas. The modelled dramatic tsunami impact in the region shows the need for additional tsunami standards not only for sea-defense structures but also for the coastal dwellings and houses to provide potential in-place evacuation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, the tsunami model TsunAWI (Alfred Wegener Institute) and its application for hindcasts, inundation studies, and the operation of the tsunami scenario repository for the Indonesian tsunami early warning system are presented. TsunAWI was developed in the framework of the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and simulates all stages of a tsunami from the origin and the propagation in the ocean to the arrival at the coast and the inundation on land. It solves the non-linear shallow water equations on an unstructured finite element grid that allows to change the resolution seamlessly between a coarse grid in the deep ocean and a fine representation of coastal structures. During the GITEWS project and the following maintenance phase, TsunAWI and a framework of pre- and postprocessing routines was developed step by step to provide fast computation of enhanced model physics and to deliver high quality results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the realization of a fault-source data set designed to become the starting point in regional-scale tsunami hazard studies. Our approach focuses on the parametric fault characterization in terms of geometry, kinematics, and assessment of activity rates, and includes a systematic classification in six justification levels of epistemic uncertainty related with the existence and behaviour of fault sources. We set up a case study in the central Mediterranean Sea, an area at the intersection of the European, African, and Aegean plates, characterized by a complex and debated tectonic structure and where several tsunamis occurred in the past. Using tsunami scenarios of maximum wave height due to crustal earthquakes (Mw = 7) and subduction earthquakes (Mw = 7 and Mw = 8), we illustrate first-order consequences of critical choices in addressing the seismogenic and tsunamigenic potentials of fault sources. Although tsunamis generated by Mw = 8 earthquakes predictably affect the entire basin, the impact of tsunamis generated by Mw = 7 earthquakes on either crustal or subduction fault sources can still be strong at many locales. Such scenarios show how the relative location/orientation of faults with respect to target coastlines coupled with bathymetric features suggest avoiding the preselection of fault sources without addressing their possible impact onto hazard analysis results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent discovery of voluminous submarine landslides along the Owen Ridge may represent a source of tsunami hazard for the nearby Oman coast. We assess the severity of this potential hazard by performing numerical simulations of tsunami generation and propagation from the biggest landslide (40 km³ in volume) observed along the Owen Ridge. A finite-difference model, assimilating the landslide to a visco-plastic flow, simulates tsunami generation. Computation results show that Salalah city (190 000 inhabitants) is impacted by 2.5 m-high tsunami waves one hour after sediment failure. Higher wave elevation values (4 m) are reached in the low populated Sawqara Bay over 80 min after slide initiation. Although large submarine failures along remote oceanic ridges are infrequent, this study reveals an underestimated source of tsunami hazard in the Arabian Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 27 February 2010, a megathrust earthquake of Mw = 8.8 generated a destructive tsunami in Chile. It struck not only Chilean coast but propagated all the way to Japan. After the event occurred, the post-tsunami survey team was assembled, funded by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), to survey the area severely affected by the tsunami. The tsunami damaged and destroyed numerous houses, especially in the town of Dichato. In order to estimate the structural fragility against tsunami hazard in this area, tsunami fragility curves were developed. Surveyed data of inundation depth and visual inspection of satellite images of Dichato were used to classify the damage to housing. A practical method suitable when there are limitations on available data for numerical simulation or damage evaluation from surveys is presented here. This study is the first application of tsunami fragility curves on the South American Pacific coast and it might be of practical use for communities with similar characteristics along the west Pacific coast. The proposed curve suggests that structures in Dichato will be severely damaged -- with a 68% probability -- already at 2m tsunami inundation depth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present geological evidence for paleotsunamis along the ~230 km-long coast of eastern Sicily (Italy); combining this information with historical data, we reconstruct a unique history of tsunami inundations. We integrate data on 38 paleotsunami deposits (from fine sand layers to boulders) collected at 11 sites (one offshore). The geological data record traces of large tsunamis which have occurred during the past 4 millennia. Chronological constrains include 14C, 210Pb and 137Cs, OSL and tephrochronology. When compatible, the age of the paleotsunami deposits is associated to historical events, but it is also used to highlight unknown tsunamis. Average tsunami recurrence interval (between 320 and 840 yr) and minimum inland tsunami ingressions (often greater than the historical ones) were estimated at several sites. On the basis of this work, the tsunami catalogue is implemented by two unknown tsunamis which occurred during the first millennium BC and by one unknown regional tsunami, which occurred in 650-770 AD. By including this latter event in the eastern Sicily catalogue, we estimate an average recurrence interval for strong tsunamis of ca. 385 yr. Comparison and merging of historical and geological data can definitely contribute to a better understanding of regional and local tsunami potential and provides robust parameters to be used in tsunami hazard estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Offshore and inland geological evidence for multiple tsunami inundations was found in the Augusta Bay area: (1) the main local historical tsunamis (1908, 1693, 1169), (2) two far-generated tsunamis (i.e. Crete 365AD and Santorini, 3600 BP), and (3) seven unknown tsunamis). Average tsunami recurrence intervals from inland and offshore investigations of about 550 and 320 yr, respectively were obtained for the past 4 ka. The history of paleotsunamis from the marine record appears to be as complete as the historical one for the past millennium, yielding an average tsunami recurrence interval of 250 yr for the Augusta Bay. Geological data allow also estimating a minimum tsunami inundation distance of 530m and a minimum run-up of 5 m. The marine record contains evidence for more paleotsunamis with respect to the inland one because of continuous sedimentation and better preservation of stratigraphy in the offshore with respect to coastal areas, which are commonly affected by intermittent-erosion and sedimentation and anthropic activities. This work shows that the integration of geological and historical data can provide critical information regarding the extent and age of tsunamis of the past (e.g. inundation distance, age, and frequency), which is of immediate relevance for tsunami hazard assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At 07:00 h (UTC-6) on 22 June 1932, a Ms =6.9 earthquake shocked the coasts of Colima and Jalisco. Five minutes later a tsunami arrived at the coast. It almost completely destroyed the town of Cuyutlán, Colima, causing the deaths of 50 people and leaving about 1200 injured. In this study, newspaper reports and technical reports are reviewed, as well as survivors' testimonials. The physical characteristics (mean sea level at the time, time of arrival, sea retreat, and inundation distribution) and the tsunami effects (number of victims, injuries, affected buildings) have been reconstructed and mapped. The interpretation of historical data allowed us to determine the intensity of the tsunami and to reveal the tsunamigenic source. This study emphasizes the relevance of historical analysis, including survivor's testimonies, in the reconstruction of tsunamis that lack instrumental data. The results of this study are relevant to paleotsunami studies and tsunami related hazard planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of tsunami deposits from the Pantano Morghella area provided geological evidence for two inundations occurred along the south-eastern Ionian coast of Sicily. Pantano Morghella is a large pond characterised by a finegrained sedimentation indicating a low-energy depositional environment. Two anomalous yellow sandy layers found at different depths indicate the occurrence of high-energy marine inundations. We studied sedimentological and paleontological features of the anomalous deposits as well as their spatial distribution observing the following properties: different facies with respect to the local stratigraphic sequence; erosive bases, rip-up clasts and broken elements testifying violent deposition mechanisms; macro and micro fauna of marine environment; relatively constant thickness throughout most of the depositional zone with thinning at the distal end; large sand sheets that extend inland. These observations, jointly with their infrequency in the sedimentary record and the age indicating a fast deposition, provided strong evidence for tsunami inundations. Correlations between anomalous layers and historical tsunamis are supported by radiocarbon and OSL dating results. The younger deposit is likely due to the 1908 near-source tsunami, whereas the flooding of the oldest event is most likely associated with a far and large source, the Crete 365AD earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 11 March 2011 the Tohoku tsunami devastated the east coast of Japan, claiming thousands of casualties and destroying coastal settlements and infrastructure. In this paper tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation are modeled to hindcast the event. Earthquake source models with heterogeneous slips are developed in order to match tsunami observations, including a best fit initial sea surface elevation with water levels up to 8 m. Tsunami simulations were compared to buoys in the Pacific, showing good agreement. In the far field the frequency dispersion provided a significant reduction even for the leading wave. Furthermore, inundation simulations were performed for ten different study areas. The results compared well with run-up measurements available and trim lines derived from satellite images, but with some overestimation of the modeled surface elevation in the northern part of the Sanriku coast. For inundation modeling this work aimed at using freely available, medium-resolution data for topography, bottom friction, and bathymetry, which are easily accessible in the framework of a rapid assessment. Although these data come along with some inaccuracies, the results of the tsunami simulations suggest that their use is feasible for application in rapid tsunami hazard assessments. A heterogeneous source model is essential to simulate the observed distribution of the run-up correctly, though. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]