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The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new method for quantifying vulnerability to natural hazards in China. As an important area of vulnerability research, quantitative assessment of vulnerability has raised much focus in academia. Presently, scholars have proposed a variety of methods for quantitative assessment, which usually create an index of overall vulnerability from a suite of indicators, based on the understanding of the cause or mechanism of vulnerability. However, due to the complex nature of vulnerability, this approach caused some arguments on the indicator selection and the weight set for subindices. A data envelopment analysis-based model for the assessment of the regional vulnerability to natural disasters is presented here to improve upon the traditional methods, and a new approach for the classification of vulnerability is proposed. The vulnerability to natural hazards in China's mainland is illustrated as a case study. The result shows that the overall level of vulnerability to natural hazards in mainland China is high. The geographic pattern shows that vulnerability is highest in western China, followed by diminishing vulnerability in central China, and lowest vulnerability levels in eastern China. There is a negative correlation between the level of vulnerability and the level of regional economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An understanding of vulnerability is not only crucial for the survival of the exposed communities to extreme events, but also for their adaptation to climate change. Vulnerability affects community participation in hazard mitigation, influences emergency response and governs adaptive capacity for the changing environmental and hazards characteristics. However, despite increased awareness, assessments and understanding of the processes that produce vulnerability, disaster risks prevail. This raises questions on the effectiveness of vulnerability assessments and their applications for hazard mitigation and adaptation. The literature includes a range of vulnerability assessment methods, wherein frequently the selection of any particular method is governed by the research objectives. On the other hand, hazard mitigation plans and policies even though mention vulnerability, their implementation pays less attention to the variations in its nature and underlying causes. This paper explores possible reasons for such gaps by exploring a case study of the Hutt Valley, New Zealand. It brings out the limitations of different vulnerability assessment methods in representing the local vulnerability and challenges they bring in planning for the vulnerability reduction. It argues that vulnerability assessment based on any particular method, such as deprivation index, principle component analysis, composite vulnerability index with or without weight, may not reveal the actual vulnerability of a place, and therefore, a comprehensive vulnerability assessment is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The level of damage of flood events does not solely depend on exposure to flood waters. Vulnerabilities due to various socio-economic factors such as population at risk, public awareness, and presence of early warning systems, etc. should also be taken into account. Federal and state agencies, watershed management coalitions, insurance companies, need reliable decision support system to evaluate flood risk, to plan and design flood damage assessment and mitigation systems. In current practice, flood damage evaluations are generally carried out based on results obtained from one dimensional (1D) numerical simulations. In some cases, however, 1D simulation is not able to accurately capture the dynamics of the flood events. The present study describes a decision support system, which is based on 2D flood simulation results obtained with CCHE2D-FLOOD. The 2D computational results are complemented with information from various resources, such as census block layer, detailed survey data, and remote sensing images, to estimate loss of life and direct damages (meso or micro scale) to property under uncertainty. Flood damage calculations consider damages to residential, commercial, and industrial buildings in urban areas, and damages to crops in rural areas. The decision support system takes advantage of fast raster layer operations in a GIS platform to generate flood hazard maps based on various user-defined criteria. Monte Carlo method based on an event tree analysis is introduced to account for uncertainties in various parameters. A case study illustrates the uses of the proposed decision support system. The results show that the proposed decision support system allows stake holders to have a better appreciation of the consequences of the flood. It can also be used for planning, design, and evaluation of future flood mitigation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social vulnerability is a term that has been widely used in the natural hazards literature for quite a few years now. Yet, regardless of how scholars define the term, the approaches and indicators they use remain contested. This article presents findings from social vulnerability assessments conducted in different case studies of flood events in Europe (Germany, Italy and the UK). The case studies relied upon a common set of comparable indicators, but they also adopted a context-sensitive, qualitative approach. A shared finding across the case studies was that it was not possible to identify a common set of socio-economic-demographic indicators to explain social vulnerability of groups and/or individuals for all phases of the disastrous events. Similarly, network-related indicators as well as location- and event-specific indicators did not have the relevance we expected them to have. The results underline that vulnerability is a product of specific spatial, socio-economic-demographic, cultural and institutional contexts imposing not only specific challenges to cross-country research concerning social vulnerability to flooding but also to attempts at assessing social vulnerability in general. The study ends with some reflections upon the methodological, practical and theoretical implications of our findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

comparative analysis of six vulnerability models aims to identify differences and similarities between several approaches towards understanding vulnerability. The analysis yields a set of characteristics for explaining the condition of vulnerability (multiple contexts, multiple dimensions, temporal variability, multiple scales and scale-interdependency). In addition, 'adaptation' and 'adaptive capacity' are identified as key elements of vulnerability. The results of the analysis are put into a wider context not only of vulnerability but also of resilience and risk research. It is demonstrated that 'adaptation' and 'adaptive capacity' serve as hinges not only for conceptualising vulnerability but between 'vulnerability' and 'resilience' alike. Based on the results of the comparative analysis, a model of vulnerability focussing on the household and community scale is developed, which displays the key findings of this work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this research is to explore indigenous coping strategies and identify underlying demographic, socio-economic and other relevant variables that influence the adoption of coping strategies in three distinct cyclone-prone coastal villages of Bangladesh. The study finds that cyclones and induced surges are a recurrent phenomenon in coastal Bangladesh; hence people are used to adjusting their lifestyle and adopting their own coping strategies intelligently. Adoption of a particular set of coping strategies depends not only on the magnitude, intensity and potential impacts of the cyclone and induced surge, but also age, gender, social class, dissemination of early warning information, locational exposure, external assistance, social protection and informal risk sharing mechanisms within the community. Indigenous cyclone disaster prevention and mitigation strategies significantly minimize the vulnerability of the people. Under extreme situations, when such disasters surpass the shock-bearing capacity of the victims, informal risk sharing mechanisms through social bonding and social safety-nets become vital for short-term survival and long-term livelihood security. Therefore, proper monitoring and understanding of local indigenous coping strategies are essential in order to target the most vulnerable groups exposed to disasters. Additionally, proper dissemination of early warning and government and non-government partnerships for relief and rehabilitation activities should be prioritized to ensure pro-poor disaster management activities. The study also recommends effective monitoring of the impact of aid to ensure corrective measures to avoid the development of relief dependency by disaster victims. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas, and the vulnerability of coastal communities and economic sectors to flooding will increase in the coming decades due to environmental and socioeconomic changes. It is increasingly recognised that estimates of the vulnerability of cities are essential for planning adaptation measures. Jakarta is a case in point, since parts of the city are subjected to regular flooding on a near-monthly basis. In order to assess the current and future coastal flood hazard, we set up a GIS-based flood model of northern Jakarta to simulate inundated area and value of exposed assets. Under current conditions, estimated damage exposure to extreme coastal flood events with return periods of 100 and 1,000 years is high (€4.0 and €5.2 billion, respectively). Under the scenario for 2100, damage exposure associated with these events increases by a factor 4-5, with little difference between low/high sea-level rise scenarios. This increase is mainly due to rapid land subsidence and excludes socioeconomic developments. We also develop a detemporalised inundation scenario for assessing impacts associated with any coastal flood scenario. This allows for the identification of critical points above which large increases in damage exposure can be expected and also for the assessment of adaptation options against hypothetical user-defined levels of change, rather than being bound to a discrete set of a priori scenarios. The study highlights the need for urgent attention to the land subsidence problem; a continuation of the current rate would result in catastrophic increases in damage exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the result of a vulnerability assessment of urban dwellers to a major flood hazard in Abeokuta, southwestern Nigeria in July 2007. This was achieved by means of questionnaire survey administered to 248 flood area residents. Flood vulnerability was assessed by examining exposure, susceptibility, and coping indicators in the study area. Findings of the study show that although about 50% of respondents had experienced floods, in Abeokuta or elsewhere in the past, majority (66%) did not anticipate a flood event of such magnitude to occur despite its location on a flood plain and, therefore, were unprepared for such hazard. Pre-warning of the flood event was generally lacking among flood area residents as only 8% of respondents indicated pre-warning, which was based on personal observations. Response to the flood hazard was mainly reactive for both private and public agents as flood risk reduction measures were not in place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This article analyzes the direct damage to residential buildings caused by the flooding of New Orleans after hurricane Katrina in the year 2005. A public dataset has been analyzed that contains information on the economic damage levels for approximately 95,000 residential buildings in the flooded area. The relationship between the flood characteristics and economic damage to residential buildings has been investigated. Results of hydrodynamic flood simulations have been used that give insight in water depths and flow velocities in the study area. In general, differences between the three polders in the observed distributions of damage estimates are related to differences in flood conditions. The highest damage percentages and structural damage mainly occurred in areas where higher flow velocities occurred, especially near the breaches in the Lower 9th Ward neighborhood. Further statistical analysis indicated that there is not any strong one-to-one relationship between the damage percentage and the water depth or the depth–velocity product. This suggests that there is considerable uncertainty associated with stage-damage functions, especially when they are applied to individual structures or smaller clusters of buildings. Based on the data, a more general approach has been proposed that could be used to distinguish different damage zones based on water depth and flow velocity for an area that is affected by flooding due to breaching of flood defenses. Further validation of existing damage models with the dataset and further inclusion of information on building type in the analysis of damage levels is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study proposes an original methodology for producing probability-weighted hazard maps based on an ensemble of numerical simulations. These maps enable one to compare different strategies for flood risk management. The methodology was applied over a 270-km2 flood-prone area close to the left levee system of a 28-km reach of the river Reno (Northern Central Italy). This reach is characterised by the presence of a weir that allows controlled flooding of a large flood-prone area during major events. The proposed probability-weighted hazard maps can be used to evaluate how a structural measure such as the mentioned weir alters the spatial variability of flood hazard in the study area. This article shows an application by constructing two different flood hazard maps: a first one which neglects the presence of the weir using a regular levee system instead, and a second one that reflects the actual geometry with the weir. Flood hazard maps were generated by combining the results of several inundation scenarios, simulated by coupling 1D- and 2D-hydrodynamic models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flood occurrence has always been one of the most important natural phenomena, which is often associated with disaster. Consequently, flood forecasting (FF) and flood warning (FW) systems, as the most efficient non-structural measures in reducing flood loss and damage, are of prime importance. These systems are low cost and the time required for their implementation is relatively short. It is emphasized that for designing the components of these systems for various rivers, climatic conditions and geographical settings different methods are required. One of the major difficulties during implementing these systems in different projects is the fact that sometimes the main functions of these systems are ignored. Based on a systematic and practical approach and considering the components of these systems, it would be possible to extract the most essential key functions of the system and save time, effort and money by this way. For instance, in a small watershed with low concentration and small lead time, the main emphasis should be on predicting and monitoring weather conditions. In this article, different components of flood forecasting and flood warning systems have been introduced. Then analysis of the FF and FW system functions has been undertaken based on the value engineering (VE) technique. Utilizing a functional view based on function analysis system technique (FAST), the total trend of FF and FW functions has been identified. The systematic trend and holistic view of this technique have been used in optimizing FF and FW systems of the Golestan province and Golabdare watersheds in Iran as the case studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research looks at the very nature of perception of seismic risk, an issue that is not only academically important, but also it can save lives and reduce injury and community costs. The background idea is that citizens in big cities, vulnerable to seismic hazard are living with latent and permanent concerns about a possible earthquake. We were interested in revealing significant aspects of Bucharest citizens’ orientations and tendencies in relation to the possible seismic event. Bucharest, the capital of Romania, is exposed to the greatest seismic hazard compared with other European capitals. The dimensions of study were: the anticipations of seism occurrence, the behavior during the event, evaluations of consequences, support factors, and individual vulnerability. This article is an example of the low cost approach on a sample of 190 citizens, understood as an exercise in attempting to relate population characteristics to various aspects of risk perception. The methodology used was based on a field investigation, where the research agents’ applied one questionnaire containing free/post codified/fan answers concerning: demographic variables, the buildings’ features, and perceptions about the possible earthquake event. The findings of this study showed that the hazard perception significantly associates with aspects concerning the subjects’ orientation toward institutional factors/human relations/negativism, and toward financial/material/moral support in case of disaster etc. It is hoped that this issue will serve to inspire further investigations into this very important and socially sensitive field, due to the fact that hazard analysis and mitigation would be more effective when it takes into account the human dimension of disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small island developing states (or SIDS) are exposed to a large number of natural hazards and many characteristics of small island developing states make them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards. In spite of this acknowledged vulnerability, there are relatively few studies which focus on the impacts of natural hazards in these countries. This paper presents a review of our current state of knowledge of impacts in small island developing states and highlights a number of research needs. Central to these is the need to integrate natural hazards research within a sustainable development context and the need to exploit existing procedures such as government coordinated disaster impact assessments to generate a detailed understanding of natural hazards impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Application of recent advances in numerical weather prediction (NWP) has the potential of allowing delivery of flood warning to extend well beyond the typical lead times of operational flood warning at the river basin scale. A prototype system, a European Flood Forecasting System ( EFFS) developed to deliver such pre-warnings, aiming at providing a pre-warning at lead times of between 5 and 10 days is described. Considerable uncertainty in the weather forecast at these lead times, however, means that resulting forecasts must be treated probabilistically, and although probabilistic forecasts may be easy to disseminate, these are difficult to understand. This paper explores the structure of operational flood warning, and shows that integration in the flood warning process is required if the pre-warning is to fulfil its potential. A simple method of summarising the information in the pre-warning is presented, and the system in hindcast mode is shown to give clear indication of an upcoming major event in the Rhine basin up to 10 days before the actual event. Finally recommendations on the use of data assimilation to embed the EFFS system within an operational environment are given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article synthesizes the literature on poverty and disasters in the United States and presents the results from a wide range of studies conducted over the past twenty years. The findings are organized into eight categories based on the stages of a disaster event. The review illustrates how people of different socioeconomic statuses perceive, prepare for, and respond to natural hazard risks, how low-income populations may be differentially impacted, both physically and psychologically, and how disaster effects vary by social class during the periods of emergency response, recovery, and reconstruction. The literature illustrates that the poor in the United States are more vulnerable to natural disasters due to such factors as place and type of residence, building construction, and social exclusion. The results have important implications for social equity and recommendations for future research and policy implementation are offered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to examine the impact of large-scale structuraladjustments (like the Greater Dhaka Flood Protection Project, GDFPP) on local living environment.It focuses the importance of environmental factors in flood hazard mitigation, and examines theenvironmental attitudes of the floodplain residents arising from the large-scale structural adjustments.Based on `perceived natural hazard research perspectives', this paper examines: (i) the reasons for persistentfloodplain occupation, and (ii) the importance of environmental factors in the choice, motivations and decision-makingof floodplain residents. This research used data collected from 300 households situated inthe eastern part of Dhaka. The face-to-face household survey data provided individuals' responses to a structuredquestionnaire on hazards and environment. Survey concerned urban floodplains, and looked fordata on housing, household characteristics, and residents' attitudes. Results of interview surveys wereused to: (i) explore the reasons of floodplain occupation, and (ii) residents' attitudes to tolerable levelof flood risk and willingness to accept environmental change resulting from the proposed structural embankments inthe eastern perimeter of Dhaka City, Bangladesh. Findings revealed that floodplain occupation (by theindividuals' decision-making) was a result of overall reaction to the Government's structuraladjustment policies that resulted from institutional, locational and socio-economic factors. The attitude survey results provided residents' perception to hazards and environment to be dependenton the socio-economic factors – but in a complex manner, many factors are interrelated.In addition to support for structural embankments, the study sample displayed a common concernand widespread environmental awareness. In terms of any `trade-off' between the benefits (resources) from the embankments and costs (hazards) due to the detrimental impact on environment, the residents of Dhaka, despite some concern forsacrificing embankments for environment, tended to show a generalconsensus for embankments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]