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There has been a significant increase in the role of sea ferry services today as well as a significant increase in the number of ferry vessels and passenger flow, which requires the development of new practical forecasting methods. The article proposes a new approach to forecasting, which is based on the integrated interaction of the systems «passenger sea port - cruise or ferry lines». This research focused on the regions of the Adriatic and the Baltic Sea and the existing network of cruise and ferry line routes. When studying this system, it was justified to use a new mathematical model based on practical simulation and models of the theory of discrete processes and systems. The proposed model is complemented by a discretization-based study based on the Kotelnikov´s theorem. To reflect the dynamics of changes in such a system, it is proposed to use new diagrams of the intensity represented by circos graphs (diagrams). The article discusses the practical importance of using new circos intensity graphs of sections to study the operation of the «marine terminal - cruise line or ferry line» systems based on real data on the Baltic and Adriatic seas. Based on the simulation results, a new system of corrective actions is proposed to improve the management of marine terminals. It presents new results which can increase the accuracy of the planning and decision-making process in predicting and planning the route network based on the research of passenger traffic between the «sea terminal - cruise line or ferry line» systems.

In terms of a systematic approach, till now it was not possible to investigate separately sea passenger terminals and the operation of ferry or cruise lines. So it is necessary to investigate their mutual influence, analyze the intensities, take into account the influence of the external environment and solve forecasting problems. This circumstance justifies the need to use new tools and models that allow analyzing the macro-level, consisting of all the ports in the region and the available ferry lines. For solving short-term forecasting problems, the class of polynomial problems has recommended itself well. But, when taking into account the mutual influence of the terminals and ferry lines on each other, the task becomes much more complicated. The discrete nature of the initial data, schedules of ship calls which need to be combined into a single array of data, comes to the fore in the study of processes. The process of functioning of an individual terminal with varying degrees of accuracy can be represented as a sequence of several typical design modes, each of which corresponds to a change in a certain set of characteristics and number of ship calls. But when solving problems at the macro-level, the article proposes to use optimization based on the circos plot. The construction of this type of diagram is associated with the fulfillment of certain boundary conditions, which makes it possible to define the boundaries of the region, to study and to form the completeness of the initial data. The object of the study is the interconnection of selected marine passenger terminals and the existing ferry lines. Based on the initial data, transformations were carried out and a circular (circos) plot of relations was constructed. Such diagram takes into account the analysis of the mutual influence of the terminals of one region. The obtained results make it possible to improve the quality of decision making, since a representation of the macro-level planning system of the «marine passenger terminals - ferry lines» is formed within the framework of the selected marine region.

Modern processes in the world economy directly affect the development and changes in sea passenger ports and their infrastructure. The principles of organization of the “city - sea passenger port” system are changing and becoming more complex. Recently there has been a significant increase in passenger traffic and cruise ship and ferry traffic in Baltic Sea. Since these objects are complex technical systems consisting of many elements, in their study it is necessary to use the system approach, to solve the problem of structure synthesis and the determination of objective functions. The objective of this publication was to study how the forecast for the development of demand for sea passenger ports (number cruise ships and passengers flow for next year) could be done by combining simulation and forecast functions. These tasks depend on the qualitative construction of specialized information simulation models. Such subsystems should be used by passenger port management for both operational everyday tasks and strategic tasks. One of the main goals of the forecast is the qualitative construction of an analytical function work of the terminal that determines the passenger flow based on real data. The article considers the solution of this problem by using the method of average growth rate and polynomial extrapolation. In the article, the characteristics and infrastructural features of the passenger ports of St. Petersburg are given, and the main directions of development based on the results of simulation are considered. The paper discusses advantages of using such forecast and their introduction in the early stages of operation of the terminal. The study represents an example of analytical information used for the forecast of the terminal load, the analysis of the workload and efficiency of the organization of the marine terminal in operational tasks using analytical function based on real data.