Search

The gateway drug model is a popular conceptualization of a progression most substance users are hypothesized to follow as they try different legal and illegal drugs. Most forms of the gateway hypothesis are that "softer" drugs lead to "harder," illicit drugs. However, the gateway hypothesis has been notably difficult to directly test--that is, to test as competing hypotheses in a single model that licit drug use might lead to illicit drug use "or" the reverse. This article presents a novel statistical technique, dual-process discrete-time survival analysis, which enables this comparison. This method uses mixture-modeling software to estimate 2 concurrent time-to-event processes and their effects on each other. Using this method, support for the gateway hypothesis in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997, was weak. However, this article was not designed as a strong test of causal direction but more as a technical demonstration and suffered from certain technological limitations. Both these limitations and future directions are discussed. (Contains 1 footnote, 3 tables, and 1 figure.)