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Background: Long-term follow-up from the randomized trial of interferon beta-1b (IFNB-1b) permitted the assessment of different definitions of no evidence of disease activity (NEDA) for predicting long-term outcome in multiple sclerosis (MS). Objective: To examine the predictive validity of different NEDA definitions. Methods: Predictive validity for negative disability outcomes (NDOs) at 16 years and survival at 21 years post-randomization were assessed. NEDA in the first 2 years was defined as follows: clinical NEDA: no relapses or Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) progression from baseline to Year 2; NEDA-3a: no relapses, no confirmed ⩾1-point EDSS progression, and no new T2-active lesions; NEDA-3b: no relapses, no EDSS progression, and no increase in T2 burden of disease (T2-BOD); and NEDA-4: no relapses, no EDSS progression, and no increase in T2-BOD or atrophy. NDOs were defined as death, need for wheelchair, EDSS ⩾6, or progressive MS. Results: A total of 245 and 371 patients were evaluated at 16 and 21 years, respectively. Clinical NEDA predicted NDOs (p = 0.0029), as did baseline EDSS (p < 0.0001), baseline T2-BOD (p < 0.0001), and change in T2-BOD (p = 0.0033). IFNB-1b treatment (p = 0.0251), relapse rate in the 2 years before study start (p = 0.0260), T2-BOD at baseline (p = 0.0014), and change in T2-BOD (p = 0.0129) predicted survival at 21 years. Conclusion: Clinical NEDA predicted long-term disability outcome. By contrast, definitions of NEDA that included on-therapy changes in magnetic resonance imaging variables did not increase the predictive validity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS) with interferon β can lead to the development of antibodies directed against interferon β that interfere with treatment efficacy. Several observational studies have proposed different HLA alleles and genetic variants associated with the development of antibodies against interferon β. Objective: To validate the proposed genetic markers and to identify new markers. Methods: Associations of genetic candidate markers with antibody presence and development were examined in a post hoc analysis in 941 patients treated with interferon β-1b in the Betaferon® Efficacy Yielding Outcomes of a New Dose (BEYOND) and BEtaseron®/BEtaferon® in Newly Emerging multiple sclerosis For Initial Treatment (BENEFIT) prospective phase III trials. All patients were treated with interferon β-1b for at least 6 months. In addition, a genome-wide association study was conducted to identify new genetic variants. Results: We confirmed an increased risk for carriers of HLA-DRB1*04:01 (odds ratio (OR) = 3.3, p = 6.9 × 10−4) and HLA-DRB1*07:01 (OR = 1.8, p = 3.5 × 10−3) for developing neutralizing antibodies (NAbs). Several additional, previously proposed HLA alleles and genetic variants showed nominally significant associations. In the exploratory analysis, variants in the HLA region were associated with NAb development at genome-wide significance (OR = 2.6, p = 2.30 × 10−15). Conclusion: The contribution of HLA alleles and HLA-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to the development and titer of antibodies against interferon β was confirmed in the combined analysis of two multi-national, multi-center studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]