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Background: Patient stratification and individualized treatment decisions based on multiple sclerosis (MS) clinical phenotypes are arbitrary. Subtype and Staging Inference (SuStaIn), a published machine learning algorithm, was developed to identify data-driven disease subtypes with distinct temporal progression patterns using brain magnetic resonance imaging; its clinical utility has not been assessed. The objective of this study was to explore the prognostic capability of SuStaIn subtyping and whether it is a useful personalized predictor of treatment effects of natalizumab and dimethyl fumarate., Methods: Subtypes were available from the trained SuStaIn model for 3 phase 3 clinical trials in relapsing-remitting and secondary progressive MS. Regression models were used to determine whether baseline SuStaIn subtypes could predict on-study clinical and radiological disease activity and progression. Differences in treatment responses relative to placebo between subtypes were determined using interaction terms between treatment and subtype., Results: Natalizumab and dimethyl fumarate reduced inflammatory disease activity in all SuStaIn subtypes (all p < 0.001). SuStaIn MS subtyping alone did not discriminate responder heterogeneity based on new lesion formation and disease progression (p > 0.05 across subtypes)., Conclusion: SuStaIn subtypes correlated with disease severity and functional impairment at baseline but were not predictive of disability progression and could not discriminate treatment response heterogeneity., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest XJ, CS, BC, BZ, EF, SB, and ARG are employees of and hold stock/stock options in Biogen. DLA reports consulting fees from Celgene, EMD Serono, Frequency Therapeutics, MedDay, Merck, Novartis, Roche, and Sanofi, and research support from Biogen, Immunotec, and Novartis. CE reports speaker honoraria from EMD Serono and is an employee of NeuroRx., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Background: Patient-focused literature on fatigue in progressive forms of multiple sclerosis (MS) is sparse. This study aimed to explore progressive MS patients' experiences of fatigue., Methods: Adult patients in the United States with primary progressive MS (n=21) and secondary progressive MS (n=23), recruited from research panels, completed the following PRO measures: Patient Global Impression of Severity (Fatigue) (PGI-F); Fatigue Scale of Motor and Cognitive Functions (FSMC); Modified Fatigue Impact Scale (MFIS); Patient Health Questionnaire, two-item version (PHQ-2); and Patient Determined Disease Steps (PDDS). Patients subsequently participated in a 45-minute semistructured telephone interview and were asked to describe their MS symptoms and to comment on how MS affected their day-to-day lives. More detailed questions followed on the nature of their fatigue, including symptoms, impacts, frequency, and bothersomeness., Results: Patients' mean age was 52.5 years, mean time since diagnosis was 14.7 years, and 81.8% were female. 79.5% of patients were unemployed and/or receiving disability benefits. Of all spontaneously reported MS symptoms, fatigue was the most common (n=38, 86.4%), followed by ambulation problems (n=31, 70.5%) and muscle weakness (n=25, 56.8%). Patients used the words "tired," "exhausted," "wiped out," and having "little or no energy" to describe their fatigue. More patients rated fatigue as their "most troubling symptom" (n=17, 38.6%) compared with other MS-related symptoms. Half of patients reported feeling constantly fatigued, and more than 90% reported experiencing fatigue at least daily. The top three most frequently reported negative impacts of fatigue were social functioning, emotional well-being, and cognitive functioning (all >80%). Patients described themselves as "homebodies," as fatigue limited their social interactions with friends and family and impacted the types of activities they could participate in. Patients attributed their inability to think clearly or focus for long periods of time to their fatigue. Patients also reported experiencing depression and anxiety because of their fatigue, which would often have further negative effects on their relationships with friends and family. On the fatigue PRO measures, mean (standard deviation) scores were 75.2 (14.7) on the FSMC and 55.0 (15.2) on the MFIS. Most participants scored in the "high" fatigue category on the FSMC (84.1%) and above the clinically significant fatigue threshold (86.4%). MFIS and FSMC total scores correlated with PGI-F (polyserial correlations r=0.74 and r=0.62, both p<0.01) and PHQ-2 (r=0.56 and r=0.57, both p<0.01), but not with PDDS (r=0.09 and r=0.02, both p>0.05)., Conclusions: Fatigue is a common, troublesome, and disabling symptom which has a profound impact on patients' daily lives, as evidenced by qualitative analyses and high scores on established fatigue measures observed in this sample. These findings provide insights into the burden of fatigue and can inform its measurement in both clinical and research settings. Treatments that improve the symptoms of fatigue or prevent exacerbations are needed for patients with progressive MS., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest This study was performed under a research contract between RTI Health Solutions and F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd. and was funded by F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd. T. Michelle Brown, Christina Slota, and Lynda Doward are salaried employees of RTI Health Solutions. Fiona McDougall and Shibeshih Belachew are employees and shareholders of F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd. Laura Julian is an employee of Genentech, Inc., and a shareholder of F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd. Deborah Miller and Iris-Katharina Penner have served as consultants for F. Hoffman-La Roche Ltd., (Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Background: Though the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) is commonly used to assess disability level in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), the criteria defining disability progression are used for patients with a wide range of baseline levels of disability in relatively short-term trials. As a result, not all EDSS changes carry the same weight in terms of future disability, and treatment benefits such as decreased risk of reaching particular disability milestones may not be reliably captured. The objectives of this analysis are to assess the probability of confirmed disability worsening to specific EDSS milestones (i.e., EDSS scores ≥3.0, ≥4.0, or ≥6.0) at 288 weeks in the Tysabri Observational Program (TOP) and to examine the impact of relapses occurring during natalizumab therapy in TOP patients who had received natalizumab for ≥24 months., Methods: TOP is an ongoing, open-label, observational, prospective study of patients with RRMS in clinical practice. Enrolled patients were naive to natalizumab at treatment initiation or had received ≤3 doses at the time of enrollment. Intravenous natalizumab (300 mg) infusions were given every 4 weeks, and the EDSS was assessed at baseline and every 24 weeks during treatment., Results: Of the 4161 patients enrolled in TOP with follow-up of at least 24 months, 3253 patients with available baseline EDSS scores had continued natalizumab treatment and 908 had discontinued (5.4% due to a reported lack of efficacy and 16.4% for other reasons) at the 24-month time point. Those who discontinued due to lack of efficacy had higher baseline EDSS scores (median 4.5 vs. 3.5), higher on-treatment relapse rates (0.82 vs. 0.23), and higher cumulative probabilities of EDSS worsening (16% vs. 9%) at 24 months than those completing therapy. Among 24-month completers, after approximately 5.5 years of natalizumab treatment, the cumulative probabilities of confirmed EDSS worsening by 1.0 and 2.0 points were 18.5% and 7.9%, respectively (24-week confirmation), and 13.5% and 5.3%, respectively (48-week confirmation). The risks of 24- and 48-week confirmed EDSS worsening were significantly higher in patients with on-treatment relapses than in those without relapses. An analysis of time to specific EDSS milestones showed that the probabilities of 48-week confirmed transition from EDSS scores of 0.0-2.0 to ≥3.0, 2.0-3.0 to ≥4.0, and 4.0-5.0 to ≥6.0 at week 288 in TOP were 11.1%, 11.8%, and 9.5%, respectively, with lower probabilities observed among patients without on-treatment relapses (8.1%, 8.4%, and 5.7%, respectively)., Conclusions: In TOP patients with a median (range) baseline EDSS score of 3.5 (0.0-9.5) who completed 24 months of natalizumab treatment, the rate of 48-week confirmed disability worsening events was below 15%; after approximately 5.5 years of natalizumab treatment, 86.5% and 94.7% of patients did not have EDSS score increases of ≥1.0 or ≥2.0 points, respectively. The presence of relapses was associated with higher rates of overall disability worsening. These results were confirmed by assessing transition to EDSS milestones. Lower rates of overall 48-week confirmed EDSS worsening and of transitioning from EDSS score 4.0-5.0 to ≥6.0 in the absence of relapses suggest that relapses remain a significant driver of disability worsening and that on-treatment relapses in natalizumab-treated patients are of prognostic importance., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Trials of anti-inflammatory therapies in non-relapsing progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) have been stubbornly negative except recently for an anti-CD20 therapy in primary progressive MS and a S1P modulator siponimod in secondary progressive MS. We argue that this might be because trials have been too short and have focused on assessing neuronal pathways, with insufficient reserve capacity, as the core component of the primary outcome. Delayed neuroaxonal degeneration primed by prior inflammation is not expected to respond to disease-modifying therapies targeting MS-specific mechanisms. However, anti-inflammatory therapies may modify these damaged pathways, but with a therapeutic lag that may take years to manifest. Based on these observations we propose that clinically apparent neurodegenerative components of progressive MS may occur in a length-dependent manner and asynchronously. If this hypothesis is confirmed it may have major implications for the future design of progressive MS trials., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: Compare relapse clinical severity, post-relapse residual disability, and the probability of confirmed complete recovery from relapse between patients who relapsed during natalizumab (n=183/627 [29%]) and placebo (n=176/315 [56%]) treatments in the AFFIRM trial., Methods: In this post-hoc analysis, relapse clinical severity and residual disability were defined by change in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score occurring between pre-relapse and at-relapse assessment and between pre-relapse and post-relapse assessment, respectively. Patients were considered completely recovered from relapse when their post-relapse EDSS score was less than or equal to their pre-relapse EDSS score, and this was maintained for 12 or 24 weeks., Results: At relapse, an increase in EDSS score of ≥0.5 points occurred in 71% of natalizumab and 84% of placebo patients (P=0.0088); an increase of ≥1.0 point occurred in 49% of natalizumab and 61% of placebo patients (P=0.0349) (mean increase in EDSS at relapse: natalizumab=0.77; placebo=1.09; P=0.0044). After relapse, residual disability of ≥0.5 EDSS points remained in 31% of natalizumab and 45% of placebo patients (P=0.0136) (mean post-relapse residual EDSS increase: natalizumab=0.06; placebo=0.28; P=0.0170). In patients with an increase in EDSS of ≥0.5 or ≥1.0 during relapse, natalizumab increased the probability of 12-week confirmed complete recovery from relapse by 55% (hazard ratio [HR]=1.554; P=0.0161) and 67% (HR=1.673; P=0.0319) compared to placebo, respectively., Conclusions: In AFFIRM, natalizumab treatment decreased the clinical severity of relapses and improved recovery from disability induced by relapses. These beneficial effects would limit the step-wise accumulation of disability., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)