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Cyclones that appear in the Adriatic Sea basin strongly influence the climate and weather conditions in the area. In particular, apart from the usually mild climate, cyclone activity in the Adriatic and the central Mediterranean Sea provide both the main hydrological forcing and the trigger mechanisms for a range of extreme weather phenomena. Therefore, a basic understanding of the cyclogenesis over the Adriatic Sea is essential. In particular, the classification of different types of cyclogenesis in the area is fundamental because it will help the understanding and prediction of the relevant weather phenomena. In this study, based on the analysis of the 4-yr (2002–05) operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts T511 dataset, various types of cyclone tracks are classified and the mesocyclogenesis areas in the vicinity of the Adriatic Basin are isolated. This analysis indicates that the following four types of cyclogenesis over the Adriatic Sea can be identified: 1) type A: cyclones connected with preexisting Genoa cyclones [with two subcategories, (A-I) continuous track: Genoa cyclones crossing over the Apennines to the Adriatic Sea, and (A-II) discontinuous track: new surface cyclones generated over the Adriatic Sea under the influence of a parent cyclone generated in the Gulf of Genoa (Genoa cyclones) and moving toward the Adriatic but blocked by the Apennines]; 2) type B: cyclones developed in situ over the Adriatic Sea without any connections with other preexisting cyclones in the surrounding area; 3) type AB: mixed types A and B cyclones, including cases where two cyclones coexist and stride over the Apennines (twin or eyeglass cyclones); and 4) type C: cyclones moving from the Mediterranean Sea, but not from the Gulf of Genoa (non-Genoa cyclones) [with 2 subcategories: (C-I) continuous track: a non-Genoa cyclone is able to cross over the Apennines to the Adriatic Sea continuously, and (C-II) discontinuous track: a non-Genoa cyclone is blocked by the Apennines and a new surface cyclone is generated over the Adriatic Sea]. The relevant dynamics of the above types of cyclones are discussed along with characteristics of the cyclones and their synoptic situations at the lower and upper troposphere.

The aim of this research is to investigate the causes for an isolated maximum in precipitation that is typically found along the northern half of the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, in the vicinity of Plumas National Forest (PNF), during moderate to heavy precipitation events. Particular attention was paid to the role various mesoscale (i.e.

In this study, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) was used to simulate Supertyphoon Bilis (in 2000) and Typhoon Toraji (in 2001) in order to investigate the dynamics of track deflection caused by the Central Mountain Range (CMR) of Taiwan. The MM5 predicted the track of each storm reasonably well. Bilis was stronger and had a relatively faster forward motion, which helped make the track continuous as it crossed the CMR. The use of a “bogus” vortex in the initialization process helped produce a storm closer to the observed strength. Bilis is a classic example of a typhoon crossing Taiwan with a continuous track. For comparison, Typhoon Toraji, a typical typhoon having a discontinuous track, was also studied. Toraji was weaker and had a relatively slower forward speed, which prevented the original low center from crossing over the CMR and forced more air parcels to go around the northern tip of the CMR. As a result, it produced a vortex and a secondary low center on the lee. Potential vorticity banners on the north side of the CMR acted to organize the secondary low and the lee vortex. With time, the low-level circulation extended into the upper levels, completing the formation of the secondary center. Remnants of the initial center crossed over the CMR and were entrained into the secondary center. Nondimensional control parameters for track continuity and deflection from idealized studies are calculated for Bilis and Toraji. The results are consistent with the theory proposed in Lin et al. For tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching Taiwan from the southeast, the conceptual model proposed by Lin et al. for continuous and discontinuous tracks was applied. For continuous tracks over the CMR, the blocking effect on the outer circulation of the vortex is weak and the vorticity advection around the northern tip is strong due to an intense TC. Weak TCs tend to be totally blocked by the CMR.

During intensive observation period 8 (IOP-8) of the Mesoscale Alpine Program, a strong stable layer formed over Italy’s Po Valley and the northern Ligurian Sea. This stable layer has been shown in previous research to be important for the formation of convection over the Ligurian Sea and the lack thereof over the Po Valley and southern slopes of the Alps. The purpose of this study is to investigate the mechanisms that acted to form and maintain the stable layer during IOP-8. This aim is accomplished through inspection of observed data as well as numerical simulations and sensitivity experiments. Observations and reanalysis data show that starting on 17 October 1999, a relatively cool, stable air mass was advected around the eastern side of the Alps into the lower atmosphere of the Po Valley. Both observational data and model output show this air mass as being blocked as it encountered the western Alps, thus resulting in an accumulation of cool, stable air at low levels in the Po Valley during the ensuing 60 h. When southerly flow approached northern Italy beginning on 20 October 1999, both the western Alps and the northern Alps appeared to help retain the low-level, cool, stable air over the Po Valley. A trajectory and sounding analysis shows that warmer, less stable air originating from over the southern Mediterranean Sea was advected atop the low-lying stable layer within the Po Valley. It is hypothesized that this differential advection, as well as blocking by the western and northern flanks of the Alps, were responsible for the longevity of the stable layer. A series of numerical simulations and sensitivity experiments were performed to test the above hypotheses. These tests support the hypotheses. Other mechanisms were also considered, including blocking of solar radiation by clouds, friction, and evaporative cooling. These simulations revealed that all three processes were critical for the longevity of the stable layer and point to the importance of accurate model representation of subgrid-scale processes.

In this study, it is proposed that mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) and a mesovortex (MV) were embedded within a wavelike disturbance over North Africa that led to the genesis of Hurricane Alberto (2000). The wavelike disturbance observed may be classified as an African easterly wave (AEW). Based on the cloud-top area and brightness values observed from infrared satellite data, four genesis and three lysis stages are identified within a cycle of moist convection associated with the pre-Alberto disturbance. The availability of water vapor is the most essential factor controlling the convective cycle of the pre-Alberto disturbance over the African continent. The presence of significant topography also contributes to the generation or decay of the associated MCCs through regulation of the water vapor supply. Further analysis of Meteosat satellite imagery reveals that the incipient disturbances for 23 of 34 eastern Atlantic tropical cyclones originated from the Ethiopian highlands (EH) region during the period of 1990–2001. The pre-Alberto disturbance was found to have exhibited characteristics of an AEW. At the EH, there existed two modes of disturbance development: a stationary mode and a propagating mode. The stationary mode corresponded with the generation of moist convection over the EH triggered by diurnally variant sensible heating, while the propagating mode corresponded with the generation and propagation of MVs and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) from the lee side of the EH over a period of about 2 to 3 days. These components of the disturbance propagated westward together within an AEW train at an average speed of 11.6 m s−1. The average wavelength was roughly estimated to be about 2200 km. To prove that disturbances generated at the EH are indeed AEWs, the NCAR Regional Climate Model Version 3.0 is adopted to simulate the event. The simulated fields showed that both the propagating wave and stationary mountain wave modes were present, the convection was generated over the EH, and the pre-Alberto disturbance was generated near the lee of the EH. In addition, the convective cycle detected from NCEP reanalysis data was also reflected in the simulated fields. The simulated AEW possesses similar wave characteristics as the observed pre-Alberto disturbance.

The dynamical impacts of an unusually strong stable layer that developed over the Po Valley and northern Ligurian Sea during Mesoscale Alpine Program (MAP) intensive observation period 8 (IOP-8) on the formation of convection over the Ligurian Sea are explored. Based on numerically simulated equivalent potential temperature, wind vectors, and by a trajectory analysis of parcels both beneath and above the stable layer, it is shown that the stable layer behaved as a material surface or “effective mountain” to the airstreams impinging on it from the south. Additional analyses show that the leading edge of the stable layer was collocated with maxima in upward motion and a strong positive moisture flux. Hence, it was further argued and demonstrated through inspection of soundings upstream of the cold dome and trajectory analyses that lifting by the stable layer enhanced convective activities over the Ligurian Sea. Finally, processes contributing to the maintenance of the stable layer during IOP-8 were explored. It was found that the differential advection of a warm, less stable air mass on top of a cooler, more stable air mass helped maintain the stable layer. The Ligurian Apennines made a secondary contribution to the stagnation of the cool air in the Po Valley by partially blocking this air mass from exiting the valley to the south.

This paper investigates the local circulation associated with a heavy orographic rainfall event during 19–21 September 1999 [Mesoscale Alpine Programme Intensive Observing Period 2B (MAP IOP-2B)]. This event was simulated with a 5-km horizontal grid spacing using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5). The MM5 simulation reproduced the basic features such as the timing and location of the deep trough and the associated precipitation evolution, though the total amount of precipitation is slightly higher than that measured by rain gauges (∼30% in 24 h). The near-surface flow was dominated by an easterly jet originally from the Adriatic Sea and a southerly jet from the Gulf of Genoa. A significant westward turning occurred when the southerly flow approached the south side of the Alps. This deflection was caused by boundary layer friction and rotation, as well as mountain blocking effects. Flow was generally from the south above the surface. Precipitation was ma...

In this study, a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model [Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)] was adopted to simulate Supertyphoon Bilis (2000) and investigate the dynamics of orographic rain and track deflection accompanying the storm as it passes the Central Mountain Range (CMR) of Taiwan. Both the storm track and its associated orographic rainfall distribution are well predicted by the numerical model. The intensity of the storm is underpredicted, resulting in a discontinuous track, due to the lack of specifying a “bogus” vortex at the time of model initialization. Cyclonic curvature of the storm track over the island topography track as well as major circulation features are similar to previous studies of landfalling typhoons affecting Taiwan. The model overpredicts the total amount of accumulated rainfall. Generalization of the flux model proposed in a 2001 study by Lin and coauthors is used to help predict and understand the observed rainfall distribution by calculating bo...

Two-dimensional simulations of the 11 January 1972 Boulder, Colorado, windstorm, obtained from 11 diverse nonhydrostatic models, are intercompared with special emphasis on the turbulent breakdown of topographically forced gravity waves, as part of the preparation for the Mesoscale Alpine Programme field phase. The sounding used to initialize the models is more representative of the actual lower stratosphere than those applied in previous simulations. Upper-level breaking is predicted by all models in comparable horizontal locations and vertical layers, which suggests that gravity wave breaking may be quite predictable in some circumstances. Characteristics of the breaking include the following: pronounced turbulence in the 13–16-km and 18–20-km layers positioned beneath a critical level near 21-km, a well-defined upstream tilt with height, and enhancement of upper-level breaking superpositioned above the low-level hydraulic jump. Sensitivity experiments indicate that the structure of the wave bre...

Numerical simulations and the analysis of observational data are employed to understand the mesoscale cyclogenesis in a polar airstream that occurred over the sea to the east of the Korean peninsula on 28‐29 January 1995. The observational analysis shows that a mesoscale low develops over the southeastern East Sea (Japan Sea) on 29 January 1995. Satellite imagery also indicates that a meso-b-scale vortex forms on the lee side of the northern Korean mountain complex (KMC), which is located in the northern Korean peninsula, and that a meso-a-scale cyclone develops over the southeastern East Sea at a later time. The mesoscale cyclone forms in the lower troposphere with strong baroclinicity and cyclonic circulation under the influence of an upper-level synoptic-scale cold vortex. Numerical simulation has captured major features of the observed cyclogenesis very well. The cyclogenesis occurs in a progressive manner. Basically, four distinctive stages of the cyclogenesis are identified. 1) First, a surface pressure trough forms on the lee side of the KMC under a northwesterly synoptic-scale flow that is deflected anticyclonically over the KMC. 2) Second, the lee trough deepens further into a strong convergence zone and a meso-b-scale vortex. 3) Next, the meso-b-scale vortex develops into a meso-a-scale vortex as the vortex and the trough begin to move southeastward from the lee of the KMC. 4) Finally, the surface trough deepens into a closed low and the meso-a-scale vortex becomes collocated with this deepening surface low to form a meso-a-scale cyclone over the southeastern East Sea. Several sensitivity experiments are performed to isolate the effects of a topography, warmer sea surface, diurnal thermal forcing, and latent heat release. During stages 1 and 2, it is found that the KMC and low-level baroclinicity are responsible for generating the strong lee trough and vortex. During stage 3, the development of the meso-a-scale vortex is brought on by the tilting of horizontal vorticity and vertical stretching in a synopticscale cyclonic circulation. In the final stage, the condensational heating plays the key role for the development of the meso-a-scale cyclone under the influence of an upper-level synoptic-scale cold vortex. The presence of the warm sea surface is found to be a necessary condition for the development of a polar air convergence zone and the mesoscale cyclone. It is also found that the low-level baroclinicity is essential for the present case of mesoscale cyclogenesis.

The three-dimensional responses of simple stably stratified barotropic and baroclinic flows to prescribed diabatic forcing are investigated using a dry, hydrostatic, primitive equation numerical model (the North Carolina State University Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Model). A time-dependent diabatic forcing is utilized to isolate the effects of latent heat release in a midlatitude convective system. Examination of the mass-momentum adjustments to the diabatic forcing is performed with a focus on the development of an isolated midlevel wind maximum. The results of both cases suggest the formation of a midlevel wind maximum in the form of a perturbation meso-β-scale cyclone, which later propagates downstream as the heating is decreased. The scale of the perturbation cyclone remains at a sub-Rossby radius of deformation length scale. Therefore, the mass perturbations adjust to the wind perturbations as the mesocyclone propagates downstream. Transverse vertical circulations, which favor ascent on the r...

The structure and evolution of a high-precipitation (HP) supercell thunderstorm is investigated using a threedimensional, nonhydrostatic, cloud-scale numerical model (TASS). The model is initialized with a sounding taken from a mesoscale modeling study of the environment that produced the 28 November 1988 Raleigh tornadic thunderstorm. TASS produces a long-lived convective system that compares favorably with the observed Raleigh tornadic thunderstorm. The simulated storm evolves from a multicell-type storm to a multiple-updraft supercell storm. The storm complex resembles a hybrid multicell-supercell thunderstorm and is consistent with the conceptual model of cool season strong dynamic HP supercells that are characterized by shallow mesocyclones. The origin of rotation in this type of storm is often in the lowest levels. Interactions between various cells in the simulated convective system are responsible for the transition to a supercellular structure. An intense low-level updraft core forms on the southwest flank of the simulated storm and moves over a region that is rich in vertical vorticity. The stretching of this preexisting vertical vorticity in the storm’s lowest levels is the most important vertical vorticity production mechanism during the initial stages of the main updraft’s development. Interactions with an extensive cold pool created by the storm complex are also important in producing vertical vorticity as the main updraft grows. Overall, the development of vorticity associated with the main updraft appears similar to nonsupercellular tornadic storms. However, classic supercell signatures are seen early in the simulation associated with other updrafts (e.g., formation of vortex couplet due to tilting of ambient horizontal vorticity, storm splitting, etc.) and are deemed important. In the storm’s supercell stage, rotation is sustained in the lowest levels of the storm despite large amounts of precipitation located near and within the main mesocyclone. Pulsating downdrafts periodically invigorate the storm and the gust front never occludes, thus allowing the main updraft to persist for a prolonged period of time. The storm’s intensity is also maintained by frequent updraft mergers.

Meso-beta-scale numerical model simulations and observational data are synthesized in an effort to develop a multistage paradigm for use in forecasting tornadic convection in the southeastern United States. The case study to be utilized as an example of the multistage sequence of events is the Palm Sunday 1994 outbreak, which culminates with the development of an unbalanced mesoscale jet streak or jetlet that focuses a given region for significant values of low-level vertical wind shear, low-level confluence and vertical vorticity, midtropospheric cooling, and storm-relative helicity. The five-stage paradigm includes 1) the existence of a jet exit region accompanying a deep balanced thermally indirect circulation south of the outbreak and a return branch ageostrophic low-level southerly jet, both typically accompanying the subtropical jet stream and the leading edge of hot continental air; 2) the existence of a jet entrance region accompanying a deep balanced thermally direct circulation north of...

Mesoscale model simulations are performed in order to provide insight into the complex role of jet streak adjustments in establishing an environment favorable to the generation of gravity waves on 11–12 July 1981. This wave event was observed in unprecedented detail downstream of the Rocky Mountains in Montana during the Cooperative Convective Precipitation Experiment. The high-resolution model simulations employ a variety of terrain treatments in the absence of the complicating effects of precipitation physics in order to examine the complex interactions between orography and adiabatic geostrophic adjustment processes. Results indicate that prior to gravity wave formation, a four-stage geostrophic adjustment process modified the structure of the mid- to upper-tropospheric jet streak by creating secondary mesoscale jet streaks (jetlets) to the southeast of the polar jet streak in proximity to the gravity wave generation region (WGR). During stage I, a strong rightward-directed ageostrophic flow i...

This paper presents the results from a numerical investigation of the responses of stratified airflow to prescribed near-surface mesoscale axisymmetric (circular) and elongated (elliptical) heat sources under uniform basic wind conditions using a simple three-dimensional model. Model results indicate that the structure of the response depends on the Froude number (Fr = V/NH) and the Rossby number (Ro = V/fL) associated with an axisymmetric thermal forcing, where H and L are the vertical and horizontal scales of the heat source, V the wind speed, N the Brunt-Vaisala frequency, and f the Coriolis parameter. However, the response to an elongated thermal forcing depends not only on the Froude and Rossby numbers, but also on the ratio of the alongstream scale (Ls) to the cross-stream scale (Ln) of the heat source, which are determined by the horizontal shape of the heat source and the direction of the basic flow. When Ls/Ln is less than 1, that is, the heat source is elongated in the cross-stream dire...

In this study, the authors have conducted a series of numerical experiments to investigate the flow circulations in the Central Valley of California and the formation mechanisms of the Fresno eddy. The authors have found the following: Under an adiabatic northwesterly, low–Froude number flow over the Central Valley, two cyclonic vortices form in the basin. One is located on the lee slope of the northern Coastal Range, while the other is located to the south of the San Joaquin Valley. The first may be identified as the Sacramento eddy, while the second may be identified as the Fresno eddy, although the Fresno eddy is located slightly farther to the south. The formation of the Sacramento eddy may be explained by either the generation of potential vorticity (Smith) or the generation of vorticity due to baroclinicity (Smolarkiewicz and Rotunno) on the lee slope in a low–Froude number flow. The Sacramento eddy may also be classified as a lee mesocylone since it is collocated with a lee mesolow (Lin et...

Coastal winds immediately offshore of North and South Carolina often exhibit a mesoscale diffluent–confluent pattern that appears to be governed by the coastal configuration and oceanic thermal field. The stationary pattern roughly parallels the coastline within 50 km of shore during winter when synoptic-scale conditions support northerly winds. Data obtained during the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE) are statistically analyzed to document the surface winds in this offshore zone. Several specific examples of the mesoscale pattern are presented and compared with results from a simple theoretical model with diabatic heating. For an inviscid flow over an isolated bell-shaped heat source, the air parcels rise in the vicinity of the heating region and descend on both the upstream and downstream sides. A confluent zone is produced in the vicinity of the heat source. With an idealized heat source resembling the observed pattern of sensible heat flux, the flow pattern is similar to that observ...