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Making the most of the rapidly increasing population of gravitational-wave detections of black hole (BH) and neutron star (NS) mergers requires comparing observations with population synthesis predictions. In this work we investigate the combined impact from the key uncertainties in population synthesis modelling of the isolated binary evolution channel: the physical processes in massive binary-star evolution and the star formation history as a function of metallicity, $Z$, and redshift $z, \mathcal{S}(Z,z)$. Considering these uncertainties we create 560 different publicly available model realizations and calculate the rate and distribution characteristics of detectable BHBH, BHNS, and NSNS mergers. We find that our stellar evolution and $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ variations can impact the predicted intrinsic and detectable merger rates by factors $10^2$-$10^4$. We find that BHBH rates are dominantly impacted by $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ variations, NSNS rates by stellar evolution variations and BHNS rates by both. We then consider the combined impact from all uncertainties considered in this work on the detectable mass distribution shapes (chirp mass, individual masses and mass ratio). We find that the BHNS mass distributions are predominantly impacted by massive binary-star evolution changes. For BHBH and NSNS we find that both uncertainties are important. We also find that the shape of the delay time and birth metallicity distributions are typically dominated by the choice of $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ for BHBH, BHNS and NSNS. We identify several examples of robust features in the mass distributions predicted by all 560 models, such that we expect more than 95% of BHBH detections to contain a BH $\gtrsim 8\,\rm{M}_{\odot}$ and have mass ratios $\lesssim 4$. Our work demonstrates that it is essential to consider a wide range of allowed models to study double compact object merger rates and properties., Comment: 25 pages of which 12 are (rainbow) figures. Main results: Fig 2, 4, 5 and 6. Code/results publicly available at https://github.com/FloorBroekgaarden/Double-Compact-Object-Mergers. Comments welcome more...

Mergers of black hole-neutron star (BHNS) binaries have now been observed by GW detectors with the recent announcement of GW200105 and GW200115. Such observations not only provide confirmation that these systems exist, but will also give unique insights into the death of massive stars, the evolution of binary systems and their possible association with gamma-ray bursts, $r$-process enrichment and kilonovae. Here we perform binary population synthesis of isolated BHNS systems in order to present their merger rate and characteristics for ground-based GW observatories. We present the results for 420 different model permutations that explore key uncertainties in our assumptions about massive binary star evolution (e.g. mass transfer, common-envelope evolution, supernovae), and the metallicity-specific star formation rate density, and characterize their relative impacts on our predictions. We find intrinsic local BHNS merger rates spanning $\mathcal{R}_{\rm{m}}^0 \approx 4$-$830\,\rm{Gpc}^{-3}\,\rm{yr}^{-1}$ for our full range of assumptions. This encompasses the rate inferred from recent BHNS GW detections, and would yield detection rates of $\mathcal{R}_{\rm{det}} \approx 1$-$180\, \rm{yr}^{-1}$ for a GW network consisting of LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA at design sensitivity. We find that the binary evolution and metallicity-specific star formation rate density each impact the predicted merger rates by order $\mathcal{O}(10)$. We also present predictions for the GW detected BHNS merger properties and find that all 420 model variations predict that $\lesssim 5\%$ of the BHNS mergers have BH masses $\gtrsim 18\,M_{\odot}$, total masses $ \gtrsim 20\,M_{\odot}$, chirp masses $\gtrsim 5.5\,M_{\odot}$, mass ratios $ \gtrsim 12$ or $\lesssim 2$. Moreover, we find that massive NSs $\gtrsim 2\,M_{\odot}$ are expected to be commonly detected in BHNS mergers in almost all our model variations., 38 pages, 18 figures, accepted to MNRAS. The authors welcome suggestions and feedback. All data and code to reproduce the results in this paper are publicly available more...

Novae are some of the most commonly detected optical transients and have the potential to provide valuable information about binary evolution. Binary population synthesis codes have emerged as the most effective tool for modelling populations of binary systems, but such codes have traditionally employed greatly simplified nova physics, precluding detailed study. In this work, we implement a model treating H and He novae as individual events into the binary population synthesis code \binaryc. This treatment of novae represents a significant improvement on the `averaging' treatment currently employed in modern population synthesis codes. We discuss the evolutionary pathways leading to these phenomena and present nova event rates and distributions of several important physical parameters. Most novae are produced on massive white dwarfs, with approximately 70 and 55 per cent of nova events occurring on O/Ne white dwarfs for H and He novae respectively. Only 15 per cent of H-nova systems undergo a common-envelope phase, but these systems are responsible for the majority of H nova events. All He-accreting He-nova systems are considered post-common-envelope systems, and almost all will merge with their donor star in a gravitational-wave driven inspiral. We estimate the current annual rate of novae in M31 (Andromeda) to be approximately $41 \pm 4$ for H novae, underpredicting the current observational estimate of $65^{+15}_{-16}$, and $0.14\pm0.015$ for He novae. When varying common-envelope parameters, the H nova rate varies between 20 and 80 events per year., Accepted, MNRAS. 7 Jun 2020: Minor correction regarding AM CVn masses at period bounce, courtesy of P. Neuteufel more...

We investigate the impact of uncertainty in the metallicity-specific star formation rate over cosmic time on predictions of the rates and masses of double compact object mergers observable through gravitational waves. We find that this uncertainty can change the predicted detectable merger rate by more than an order of magnitude, comparable to contributions from uncertain physical assumptions regarding binary evolution, such as mass transfer efficiency or supernova kicks. We statistically compare the results produced by the COMPAS population synthesis suite against a catalog of gravitational-wave detections from the first two Advanced LIGO and Virgo observing runs. We find that the rate and chirp mass of observed binary black hole mergers can be well matched under our default evolutionary model with a star formation metallicity spread of $0.39$ dex around a mean metallicity $\left$ that scales with redshift $z$ as $\left=0.035 \times 10^{-0.23 z}$, assuming a star formation rate of $0.01 \times (1+z)^{2.77} / (1+((1+z)/2.9)^{4.7}) \, \rm{M}_\odot$ Mpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$. Intriguingly, this default model predicts that 80\% of the approximately one binary black hole merger per day that will be detectable at design sensitivity will have formed through isolated binary evolution with only dynamically stable mass transfer, i.e., without experiencing a common-envelope event., Comment: 22 pages, 17 figures. Data from the COMPAS simulation will be publicly available more...