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The serotonin hypothesis of depression is still influential. We aimed to synthesise and evaluate evidence on whether depression is associated with lowered serotonin concentration or activity in a systematic umbrella review of the principal relevant areas of research. PubMed, EMBASE and PsycINFO were searched using terms appropriate to each area of research, from their inception until December 2020. Systematic reviews, meta-analyses and large data-set analyses in the following areas were identified: serotonin and serotonin metabolite, 5-HIAA, concentrations in body fluids; serotonin 5-HT 1A receptor binding; serotonin transporter (SERT) levels measured by imaging or at post-mortem; tryptophan depletion studies; SERT gene associations and SERT gene-environment interactions. Studies of depression associated with physical conditions and specific subtypes of depression (e.g. bipolar depression) were excluded. Two independent reviewers extracted the data and assessed the quality of included studies using the AMSTAR-2, an adapted AMSTAR-2, or the STREGA for a large genetic study. The certainty of study results was assessed using a modified version of the GRADE. We did not synthesise results of individual meta-analyses because they included overlapping studies. The review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020207203). 17 studies were included: 12 systematic reviews and meta-analyses, 1 collaborative meta-analysis, 1 meta-analysis of large cohort studies, 1 systematic review and narrative synthesis, 1 genetic association study and 1 umbrella review. Quality of reviews was variable with some genetic studies of high quality. Two meta-analyses of overlapping studies examining the serotonin metabolite, 5-HIAA, showed no association with depression (largest n = 1002). One meta-analysis of cohort studies of plasma serotonin showed no relationship with depression, and evidence that lowered serotonin concentration was associated with antidepressant use (n = 1869). Two meta-analyses of overlapping studies examining the 5-HT 1A receptor (largest n = 561), and three meta-analyses of overlapping studies examining SERT binding (largest n = 1845) showed weak and inconsistent evidence of reduced binding in some areas, which would be consistent with increased synaptic availability of serotonin in people with depression, if this was the original, causal abnormaly. However, effects of prior antidepressant use were not reliably excluded. One meta-analysis of tryptophan depletion studies found no effect in most healthy volunteers (n = 566), but weak evidence of an effect in those with a family history of depression (n = 75). Another systematic review (n = 342) and a sample of ten subsequent studies (n = 407) found no effect in volunteers. No systematic review of tryptophan depletion studies has been performed since 2007. The two largest and highest quality studies of the SERT gene, one genetic association study (n = 115,257) and one collaborative meta-analysis (n = 43,165), revealed no evidence of an association with depression, or of an interaction between genotype, stress and depression. The main areas of serotonin research provide no consistent evidence of there being an association between serotonin and depression, and no support for the hypothesis that depression is caused by lowered serotonin activity or concentrations. Some evidence was consistent with the possibility that long-term antidepressant use reduces serotonin concentration., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

(R,S)-ketamine (ketamine) and its enantiomer (S)-ketamine (esketamine) can produce rapid and substantial antidepressant effects. However, individual response to ketamine/esketamine is variable, and there are no well-accepted methods to differentiate persons who are more likely to benefit. Numerous potential peripheral biomarkers have been reported, but their current utility is unclear. We conducted a systematic review/meta-analysis examining the association between baseline levels and longitudinal changes in blood-based biomarkers, and response to ketamine/esketamine. Of the 5611 citations identified, 56 manuscripts were included (N = 2801 participants), and 26 were compatible with meta-analytical calculations. Random-effect models were used, and effect sizes were reported as standardized mean differences (SMD). Our assessments revealed that more than 460 individual biomarkers were examined. Frequently studied groups included neurotrophic factors (n = 15), levels of ketamine and ketamine metabolites (n = 13), and inflammatory markers (n = 12). There were no consistent associations between baseline levels of blood-based biomarkers, and response to ketamine. However, in a longitudinal analysis, ketamine responders had statistically significant increases in brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) when compared to pre-treatment levels (SMD [95% CI] = 0.26 [0.03, 0.48], p = 0.02), whereas non-responders showed no significant changes in BDNF levels (SMD [95% CI] = 0.05 [-0.19, 0.28], p = 0.70). There was no consistent evidence to support any additional longitudinal biomarkers. Findings were inconclusive for esketamine due to the small number of studies (n = 2). Despite a diverse and substantial literature, there is limited evidence that blood-based biomarkers are associated with response to ketamine, and no current evidence of clinical utility., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)