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Extreme high temperatures are associated with increased incidences of rail buckles. Climate change is predicted to alter the temperature profile in the United Kingdom with extreme high temperatures becoming an increasingly frequent occurrence. The result is that the number of buckles, and therefore delays, expected peryear will increase if the track is maintained to the current standard. This paper uses a combination of analogue techniques and a weather generator to quantify the increase in the number of buckles and rail related delays in the southeast of the United Kingdom. The paper concludes by assigning a cost to the resultant rise in delays and damage before making recommendations on how these effects can be mitigated. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a new seamless blended multi‐model ensemble configuration of an existing probabilistic medium‐ to extended‐range weather pattern forecasting tool (called Decider) run operationally at the Met Office. In its initial configuration, the tool calculated and presented probabilistic weather pattern forecast information for five individual ensemble forecasting systems, which varied in terms of their number of ensemble members, horizontal resolution, update frequencies and forecast lead time. This resulted in multiple forecasts for the same validity time which varied in terms of forecast skill depending on the lead time in question. This presented challenges for end‐users (e.g., operational meteorologists) in terms of knowing which forecast output is best to use and at which lead time, as well as knowing what to do in situations where forecasts varied between ensembles. To get around these challenges, a new seamless blended multi‐model ensemble configuration has been implemented operationally, comprising of output from five separate ensembles, and provides a single best forecast from day one out to day 45. Objective verification for a set of eight weather pattern groups covering forecasts initialized over a 6‐year period (2017–2022) shows that the seamless blended multi‐model ensemble forecasts are at least as good as, if not better than the best performing individual model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reserve power systems are widely used to provide power to critical infrastructure systems in the event of power outages. The reserve power system may be subject to regulation, typically focussing on a strict operational time commitment, but the energy involved in supplying reserve power may be highly variable. For example, if heating or cooling is involved, energy consumption may be strongly influenced by prevailing weather conditions and seasonality. Replacing legacy assets (often diesel generators) with modern technologies could offer potential benefits and services back to the wider electricity system when not in use, therefore supporting a transition to low‐carbon energy networks. Drawing on the Great Britain telecommunications systems as an example, this paper demonstrates that meteorological reanalyses can be used to evaluate capacity requirements to maintain the regulated target of 5‐days operational reserve. Across three case‐study regions with diverse weather sensitivities, infrastructure with cooling‐driven electricity demand is shown to increase energy consumption during summer, thus determining the overall capacity of the reserve required and the availability of 'surplus' capacity. Lower risk tolerance is shown to lead to a substantial cost increase in terms of capacity required but also enhanced opportunities for surplus capacity. The use of meteorological forecast information is shown to facilitate increased surplus capacity. Availability of surplus capacity is compared to a measure of supply–stress (demand‐net‐wind) on the wider energy network. For infrastructure with cooling‐driven demand (typical of most UK telecommunication assets), it is shown that surplus availability peaks during periods of supply–stress, offering the greatest potential benefit to the national electricity grid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme weather events can cause significant damage to power distribution network infrastructure, often resulting in power outages. Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) are faced with the challenging task of responding to these outages in real time while maintaining a resilient grid. Our paper presents an innovative approach to alert operators about the potential risk associated with upcoming extreme weather through a normalized fragility curve. The uniqueness of the curve is the ability to capture regional differences across a DNO's territory while presenting operators with a means of setting unified risk thresholds. This can support a proactive response and allow the staging of necessary resources to minimize the threat posed by such events. Our approach captures the changes in failure probability associated with differing wind regimes and demonstrates the benefit of sub‐regional meteorological information. The proposed approach is demonstrated for wind events using 20 years of historical fault records from a DNO in the United Kingdom (UK). While its efficacy is demonstrated for windstorms in the UK, the approach could be applied globally to develop normalized fragility curves for other types of seasonal extreme weather events such as snowstorms, hurricanes, or linked hazards such as wildfires. The approach can also facilitate an understanding of how infrastructure may operate under future climate conditions, supporting proactive adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT A huge change has occurred in the way people obtain weather information in the last few years and a large percentage of the population now get weather forecasts on their mobile phones. There is currently a wide range of smartphone weather apps available: in 2014, iTunes App Store alone offered 5043 active applications in the weather category. The rapid penetration of new broadcasting technologies strongly affects the way weather forecasts are communicated to, and used by, people. Portability, permanent connectivity and geolocalization allow location-specific and time-sensitive weather forecasts to be provided. This paper explores the main features emerging in the 39 most popular weather apps in the United States, United Kingdom and Italy, and focuses on the implications in the communication of uncertainty. The results show that even if the advances in mobile communication technologies could, in principle, improve the effectiveness of weather communication enormously, the expectations created around weather forecasts appear to be inconsistent with current forecasting capabilities, particularly with their inherent uncertainties in space and time, as well as in the nature of the predicted weather events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Against an academic and policy backdrop of interest in (and concerns about) the issue, this paper draws on a range of academic writing in various disciplines to explore visual strategies of climate change communication. The geographic scope of the investigation is the United Kingdom, with particular attention to recognizable icons of climate change in UK media and the images used in political campaigns. The paper is in two parts. The first part concentrates on various efforts to put a 'face' on the climate change issue, while part two suggests that weather and renewable energy are the dominant alternative motifs. The paper draws a basic distinction between fear-laden representations of climate change and a variety of visual efforts to use so-called inspirational imagery. All of the images reviewed suggest an affirmative answer to the question in the title, there are multiple efforts underway to move beyond polar bears and represent climate change in more creative and meaningful ways. The bigger question addressed is one raised already by photographers as well as academics, i.e. whether documentary photography (rather than particular types of images) is the more fundamental issue. The answer in the paper is that photographs are no different from other visual images in their capacity to draw attention to messages. The challenge is to use visuals creatively, in ways that prompt positive engagement with climate change without enhancing public disengagement and fatalism. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing on evidence from the United Kingdom and elsewhere in Europe, this paper explores how people have responded to flood warning information and how these responses impact upon the effectiveness of a flood warning through saving lives and injuries, and reducing economic damages. Methods of flood warning that the public rely upon are discussed alongside empirical evidence of how flood victims prepare for, and respond to, flood warnings in rapid to mediumonset floods. The paper investigates why some members of the public fail to act appropriately, or most effectively, to flood warning information, touching on ideas of a lack of understanding, mistrust in authority and a lack of ownership of flood reducing actions. The paper examines the styles of public learning about flood warning response which might be most appropriate and effective, and how recent positive steps to increase the publics understanding of effective response might be further enhanced in the United Kingdom. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses developments in the last five to six years in the provision of operational flood forecasting in England, Wales, and Scotland. Before the formation of the Environment Agency EA in England and Wales and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency SEPA, flood forecasting capabilities were fragmented. Just over a decade ago both organisations received governmental mandates for the provision of flood forecasting and warning nationally, and have as a result in recent years established systems providing national coverage: the National Flood Forecasting System, and Flood Early Warning System FEWS Scotland. These have facilitated a rapid expansion of catchments for which forecasts are provided, and the common framework used has enabled a more rapid introduction of scientific advances in forecasting techniques. This paper gives an overview of some of these recent developments, as well as providing an outlook to further developments to be undertaken in the near future. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impact assessments require detailed information regarding the impact of weather in the current climate. This study focuses on the road network, using UK Highways Agency Traffic Information System data and NIMROD precipitation radar data to determine the impact of precipitation on traffic speeds along the M1 and M6 corridors for use in future impact assessments. The results show that whilst precipitation does impact on traffic speeds, there is no universal significant single factor relationship between the two variables and only a small amount of variance in traffic speeds can be explained by the intensity of precipitation. However, a threshold appears to exist simply at 0 mm h−1 (i.e. precipitation/no precipitation). The significance of this threshold is tested in this paper, but it appears clear that a universal relationship between precipitation intensity and vehicle speeds is unlikely to exist and local conditions such as capacity and drainage are equally as important to take into account. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Atmospheric observations from aircraft have played an important role in meteorological research for many years; this paper presents an overview of meteorological research done with research aircraft in the United Kingdom. Key developments from throughout the history of meteorological research flying in the United Kingdom are presented, along with highlights of UK atmospheric research flying done in the last decade using the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements ( FAAM) BAe-146 aircraft. The work presented includes research into thermodynamics, cloud processes, atmospheric aerosol, radiative transfer and atmospheric chemistry. Research aircraft provide a unique platform for the observation of atmospheric processes, allowing targeted measurement of specific parameters at a range of altitudes throughout the atmosphere. These measurements have improved greatly the understanding of the Earth's atmosphere, and the impact of these measurements has been seen through improvements in the representation of physical processes within numerical weather prediction ( NWP) and climate models. Research aircraft have also been used extensively for the calibration and validation of remote sensing measurements, providing a unique test-bed for satellite observations. This research has led to improved use of satellite observations that have enhanced greatly how the atmosphere is viewed. Many developments in atmospheric research would not have been possible without the use of aircraft measurements, and these measurements will continue to play a key role in future developments of meteorological observation and prediction, as the complexity and resolution of weather and climate models increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The two World Area Forecast Centres (WAFC) are responsible for providing aviation hazard forecasts above 800 hPa (6000 ft) including clear air turbulence (CAT) to aviation customers around the world. A new automated gridded forecast for CAT is now being produced by the two WAFCs along with the traditional forecaster-produced Significant Weather (SIGWX) charts. Until now little objective verification has been available for the WAFC products. However, the increasing availability of high-resolution in situ aircraft observations now makes routine objective verification a possibility. The Global Aircraft Data Set (GADS) formed from the fleet of British Airways Boeing 747-400 aircraft is a particularly useful resource. This paper proposes an objective verification scheme using Relative Operating Characteristic analysis to investigate the skill in both the operational SIGWX and new gridded CAT forecasts from both WAFC London and WAFC Washington. Global verification results using GADS data are presented for 4 months during winter November 2008 to February 2009. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Five years of UK Met Office global model analyses from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2008 have been used to generate a global hail climatology at 1° latitude by 1° longitude resolution. Hail has been diagnosed from model vertical profiles of temperature and humidity using a simple algorithm based on a paper by Fawbush and Miller (). Results have been compared with published observational climatologies on both a global and regional basis. The model diagnoses compare favourably with the observed data with both orographic and seasonal signals. However, there are differences, and possible reasons for these are discussed. These include limitations of the simple algorithm, the difficulty of observing hail in sparsely populated areas and the problem of population growth influencing the number of hail reports. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather forecasts on BBC radio and television are recognized as the bench mark by which all other weather broadcasts in the United Kingdom are judged. Having spent many years at the BBC Weather Centre, as forecaster and senior meteorologist, the author reflects on the development of television weather forecasts on the national, licence fee funded, broadcaster in the United Kingdom. The period referred to in the paper saw technology evolve rapidly with television weather graphics at the forefront of the technological revolution. Changes in the recruitment and training of forecasters over time are discussed, giving an insight into the behind the scenes evolution of the workings of television and radio weather broadcasts. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Radar has been applied to the study of insect migration for almost 40 years, but most entomological radars operate at Xband 9.4 GHz, 3.2 cm wavelength and can only detect individuals of relatively large species, such as migratory grasshoppers and noctuid moths, over all of their flight altitudes. Many insects including economically important species are much smaller than this, but development of the requisite higher power andor higher frequency radar systems to detect these species is often prohibitively expensive. In this paper, attention is focused upon the uses of some recentlydeployed meteorological sensing devices to investigate insect migratory flight behaviour, and especially its interactions with boundary layer processes. Records were examined from the verticallypointing 35 GHz ‘Copernicus’ and 94 GHz ‘Galileo’ cloud radars at Chilbolton Hampshire, England for 12 cloudless and convective occasions in summer 2003, and one of these occasions 13 July is presented in detail. Insects were frequently found at heights above aerosol particles, which represent passive tracers, indicating active insect movement. It was found that insect flight above the convective boundary layer occurs most often during the morning. The maximum radar reflectivity an indicator of aerial insect biomass was found to be positively correlated with maximum screen temperature. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important aspect of flood risk management is the issuing of timely flood alerts. The spatial, as well as temporal, scale of these warnings is important. In many situations efficient risk management may be aided by the provision of local flood predictions at a high spatial resolution. Examples of such situations include issuing warnings for small groups of outlying houses or key infrastructure locations such as power substations. In this paper a methodology for providing automated, detailed and location specific warnings which are computed ‘onsite’ is presented. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews recent advances in weather forecasting capability in the United Kingdom and their implications for increasing the lead time with which flood warnings can be issued. The events of summer 2007 have highlighted the vulnerability of parts of the United Kingdom to flooding and the need for long lead time flood warnings to enable the protection of people and critical infrastructure. Historically, computer weather forecasting models have been unable to forecast at the scales of importance for flood warning, and so the warning processes have been forced to rely on measurements on the ground. Examples are presented to demonstrate that new forecasting technologies, currently being implemented, enable warnings to be produced much earlier, provided they are couched in probabilistic terms and interpreted appropriately. Crown Copyright © 2009. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2005 the Royal Meteorological Society commissioned a study to examine current issues regarding the quality fitness for purpose of commercial weather forecasts in the United Kingdom. UK commercial weather forecast providers and users were consulted by means of online questionnaires, interviews, visits and an open workshop discussion. Results from this consultation uncovered significant deficiencies in the methodologies and in the communication of forecast quality assessments, a lack of open dialogue and transparency in the industry, and that some users may be indifferent to forecast quality. Descriptive or worded forecasts cannot be assessed objectively. However, suitable quality assessment methods are available for nearly all types of quantitative forecasts identified in the consultation. The crucial importance of choosing proper quality assessment metrics, the impact of their statistical properties on results and the need to estimate the statistical significance of quality assessment results were exemplified by means of four case studies, one of which is presented in this paper. The findings from this study have led to a set of practical recommendations aiming to establish the discipline and rigour that are necessary for achieving best practice in the quality assessment of weather forecasts. Specific recommendations were also made to the Royal Meteorological Society to set up a special commission that would promote a sense of community within the industry, and to run an accreditation scheme that would encourage best practice on a voluntary basis. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]